CIO, SignalPoint Asset Management, 2008 to 2024, Retired
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October 27th was the most recent low in the $14s. Things are looking a bit better now.
Best wishes,
OAG
Good morning E, Re: Moving Above and Beyond...........................
Getting back above a buck a share is heartening.
Yes, and a break above $1 intra day.
Nice to see this wounded bird start to recover.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Hi Steve, Re: Punchbowl................
I was 21 years old and had just taken my physical for the Draft when I first saw it. It was quite moving for me.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Nice volume spikes Frida AM.
National Cemetery of the Pacific - Punchbowl crater in Honolulu.
It is a humbling place to visit. I was 21 years old and 1-A Draft status when I was last there. I was awaiting a letter from my Uncle Sam as to what uniform I would be wearing for the next couple of years.
As it turned out, the draft bill stalled in Congress and they never got to my lottery number. That was a lottery I "won" by losing!
Thanks for asking,
OAG Tom
1) descendants of royalty are still around.
2) milwaukee to Dallas to Honolulu.
3) yes, I thought Jon's idea was interesting, too.
The weather is better than Wisconsin. This is my first time back since 1971.
OAG
DING DING SING DING!!!!
WE HAVE A WINNER!!!
A secret Decoder is being prepared for you!!!
OAG Tom
Hi Steve, Re: Where....
Very good, but alas, not correct!
OAG
Clue #6
We went through Grabber's back yard to get here!
OAG Tom
Where In The World is Tomaso Vitello?
He's out searching for his childhood friend Carmen Sandiego. Who will be first to guess correctly!
1) Far away but still Home
2) Warm enough to Swim
3) National Highways don't connect all the Cities
4) Nobody drinks Punch from their Bowl
5) Royalty still exists here
That should get the Game started....
Winner will receive the coveted AIM Secret Decoder (if I can find my stash of them)!!!
Best wishes for a great Thanksgiving Weekend,
OAG
PS: I may be out of touch for the next week or so, but will announce the Winner when I get back.....
Since adding CRSP to my portfolio in May of 2022, there have been a few moments of hand wringing. However, trading around the core position has helped the overall cause. Currently, including the cash reserve, the position is up in value over 50%. Share price is up roughly 36%, so the opportunistic trading has added nicely to total return.
Best wishes,
OAG
Nice response to today's news on product. It looks like there's been some good cost control going on as well.
OAG
The threat of MESA being delisted sure didn't help the share price much.
In the 'olden days' I used to call my broker at this point and ask to have a stock certificate delivered to me. That way, I at least had a pretty bit of investment art to hang on the wall to remind me that things don't always go as planned!
OAG
.................. worth approximately $8.5 million...................
She probably had a kitchen to remodel.....
OAG
A reasonable move upward today. It's still in my "hold zone" however, so no inventory adjustments yet.
OAG
Maybe Schwab will feel the pressure and make such a thing available, too.
OAG
Hi Toof, Re: SNVXX.............
Nope, it doesn't sweep like their MMF. I had to buy this fund (constant $1.00 price) with surplus cash to get involved. Further, if I spend down my usual sweep MMF and need more cash, I'll have to sell off some of it to raise AIM's spendable cash.
.....but the yield is nice!
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Hi Toof, Re: places to earn some interest at Schwab......................
I'm using SNVXX right now in my own accounts for surplus cash. It's earning over 5% and is invested in short term conservative govt funds. Slightly safer than plain MMFs.
There are a couple of others that earn slightly more, but are slightly less 'safe.'
Hope this helps,
Tom
For those of you who've followed along over the years, you may remember my "Speculation Index" component of my market risk measures.
As is seen here, Speculation has been falling pretty steadily since the mid-Summer S&P 500 market peak. It's now nicely into its 'proactive' range indicating good upside potential relative to downside risk. This shows that Cash flow has been heavily away from stocks. Further, there's been an early start to Tax Loss Selling in 2023 so there's been a lot of pressure on those stocks that weren't great performers during the year. And, because of better interest rates on money funds being available, speculators aren't in a hurry to put those $$$ back into the stock market.
My Spec Index has been a pretty good bullish indicator looking out 3 to 6 months. It's generally offered better than average upside performance (~65% of the time) compared to both the S&P500 and the NASDAQ Composite indexes.
Keep your fingers crossed but near AIM's trigger!,
OAG Tom
Thanks F-400, Re: Cash returns improving.......................
I, too, have been watching this closely. I've moved surplus cash to Schwab's SNVXX to harvest some of that 5+% yield while it's awaiting AIM's next instructions.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Thanks Jon, Re: v-Wave makes a good short term call, yet again............................
Consistent, appropriate calls from the AIM Users v-Wave helps those of us using AIM to have confidence when AIM's contrary recommendations are different from the Financial world's Talking Heads. Thanks goes out to JDerb for his consistent efforts on keeping us informed on a weekly basis and Value Line for offering their "Appreciation Potential" data in a consistent format.
My personal crystal ball doesn't give me any clues as to "recession", depression, stagflation, etc. When I shake it and turn it over it just says, "Ask Again Later." So, I guess we just have to follow AIM and the v-Wave along this investing journey.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_8_Ball
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
After cresting at around $150/share earlier this year, GNRC has had some tough times thru the end of October.
Today's healthy gain helps to erase some of that downward slide.
Best wishes,
OAG
Will we see any follow through on WOLF's recent price rally?
Best wishes,
OAG
We're seeing the mid-Summer, 2023 market risk unwind as the big indexes sag.
The 3-5 Year v-Wave is now below its Median which indicates slightly greater potential for appreciation in stock prices looking out over that time frame. The shorter term v-Wave forecast is also getting to look better.
Best regards,
OAG
Hi Will,
Re: sell side SAFE expansion.......
1) AIM cannot run out of Shares, but it can run out of Cash. Controlling AIM's cash is vital because it's limited. Shares will be reduced over long selling periods but never run out with standard AIM.
2) I use 'vealies' to contain AIM's enthusiasm for selling.
So, no I don't expand resistance to selling over a long bullish period.
Good questions!
OAG Tom
This less-than-positive note is from Yahoo Finance:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-airline-stocks-sell-amid-195640645.html
Mesa Air Group (NASDAQ:MESA) revenues are declining while losses deepen. Those losses were particularly acute in the second quarter at $40 million whereas the company eked out a $213k net gain a year earlier.
Consider that Mesa Air Group has less than $50 million in cash on hand and eyebrows should rise. The simple math indicates that the company cannot continue to operate its business for that much longer. MESA shares will remain volatile and for day traders there’s plenty to like for that reason. However, any long-term investor should stay away. Management offers no guidance and increasing fuel costs could spike its losses again. It’s very difficult to gauge the shares as a result.
It's in my IRA, so there's no benefit in "tax loss selling" here. I'll probably just let it whither here. Even JETS is off from its 2023 high of $22 to just $15 right now. So, contrary investors might be tempted by the industry ETF. A 33% haircut on the industry ETF shouldn't be ignored.
Best wishes,
OAG
Will it ever get airborne again????
OAG
Hi Will, Re: Split SAFE and my very early tests of that idea...........................
Here's the page from my web site that is now "well aged":
https://web.archive.org/web/20120118093621id_/http://www.aim-users.com/aimchng.htm
Yes, I had significant history with that American Century fund at the time I did those tests and examples. So, I constructed those using my own price histories. At that point in history, my own account had been building up too much cash for way too long and had lost its performance edge because of the lag of the cash portion. (see the "by the book" first example) So, my tests at that time suggested the idea of reducing resistance to buying as the answer. Note also that those examples end in 1999.
Sometime very early in the New Millennium I swapped out low Buy SAFE for low Sell SAFE and visa versa. I'd have to go through my ancient newsletters for Year 2000 and on, but it was around then I increased the resistance to buying and dropped the sell resistance. Since by then I was also using 'vealies' to contain cash buildup, it made sense to resist spending down cash too quickly with buys. It became apparent that AIM could be a snake biting its own tail with low Buy SAFE. Buying raised Portfolio Control making further buying easier. Low Buy SAFE created a sort-of positive feedback loop. It was then that I realized we needed to maintain a certain level of buy resistance to quench AIM's desire to burn cash too quickly.
Those early examples are still valid for the concept of staging one's SAFE levels, but need to be understood in the time frame in which they were done. I think I've been using the recently stated SAFE levels for over 20 years now. The only further adaptation I've made was possibly first mentioned by TooFuzzy. It was to add to Buy SAFE with each sequential buy. This helped put a halon fire retardant on AIM's cash burn rate. If we're going to maintain a minimum cash reserve through artificial caps to buildup, then we need to also create resistance to cash burn rate. My MO for a long time has been to add 5 points to the Buy SAFE with each sequential buy. When the buying ends and prices start to rise, I then unwind the excess buy SAFE with each successive Sell until back to 10% Buy SAFE.
I hope this helps explain some of the history of the idea of Split SAFE and its use.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
From an article in this week's BARRON's................................
Charles Schwab Won’tBe Dethroned
Despite snags with the TD Ameritrade transition, Schwab has what it takes to win.
BY ANDREW WELSCH
Financial advisor John Robinson was scheduled to move his clients’ funds to Charles Schwab from TD Ameritrade over Labor Day weekend as part of the brokerage industry’s largest account migration ever. He expected a snoozefest; instead, he says he experienced a “dumpster fire.” A $1.7million account wasmistakenly assigned to him, and three of his client accounts totalingmore than $4 million were incorrectly assigned to another advisor, he says. Robinson tried calling Schwab’s (ticker: SCHW) service desk but couldn’t get through. He finally spoke to someone the next day about themissing accounts. “They askedme, ‘What’s the account number?’ ” he says. “And I said, ‘I don’t know. I can’t see the accounts.’ ” Four days later, the accounts were reassigned correctly, but the experience has left Robinson dispirited. Schwab might lose his business.
“It’s 50/50,” says Robinson, owner of Financial Planning Hawaii. “My great preference is I’d verymuch like to leave. I’mdisappointed. This is not what I was expecting.”
Some Schwab customersmay share the same sentiment, and Schwab investorsmay, too, though for different rea-
sons. The snags in the $1.3 trillion Labor Day transition have come amid a trying year for the company. The stock is down 35%, bank deposits had fallen 28% year over year as of Sept. 30, and net new assets tumbled in July and August as some Ameritrade customers and advisorsmigrated elsewhere.
“Schwab is at a crossroads,” says MichaelWong, an analyst atMorningstar. “There are a lot of potential positive and negative catalysts in the next two to six quarters.”
Rising interest rates over the past year have pressured Schwab’s bank, a key profit center. Customers have moved billions of dollars out of the company’s default low-interest bank accounts to higher-yielding options, a process known as “cash sorting.” Because deposit outflows have exceeded Schwab’s cash on hand, it has had to rely on costly short-term borrowing, which has caused its interest expenses to soar and taken a bite out of earnings.
Schwab’s third-quarter results, posted on Oct. 16, were better than Wall Street’s forecast but still down sharply from a year ago. During the company’s earnings call, executives didn’t release a dramatic new business strategy or turnaround plan. Instead, they urged shareholders to be patient.
“Despite the environment, despite the noise, we are supremely confident in our positioning for long-term growth,” said CEOWalt Bettinger.
Many analysts agree and remain bullish on Schwab’s downtrodden stock. That’s because cash sorting will probably end as interest rates level off, they say. Also, thanks to its acquisition of TD Ameritrade, Schwab has enormous scale and a commanding lead over the competition. Plus, Schwab dominates the business of holding assets for the clients of independent financial advisors. This space is difficult for newcomers to break into, even when there may be dissatisfied customers.
Schwab says that as far as the TD transition goes, all is well. The overwhelming majority of TD Ameritrade clients have transitioned to Schwab successfully, and attrition is lower than what Schwab had forecast. “Only a tiny fraction of transitioning clients reached out to us with a concern,” said a Schwab spokeswoman, adding that the company’s priority is to quickly resolve any customer issues.
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi JMP, Re: vealies.................
Here's something from our AIM Q and A board:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=287370
There's about 300+ questions with answers listed there. Not all the links work, but the info is good.
...and here's something from my ancient web site:
https://web.archive.org/web/20120902234042id_/http://www.aim-users.com/qanda.htm#q8
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi JMP, Re: SAFE settings..................
Personally I choose the SAFE settings based upon the type of investment vehicle AIM will be using.
ETF Sector Funds:
generally 10% Buy SAFE, 0.0% Sell SAFE, 5% of Portf Control as minimum order value, "vealies" used to contain cash buildup to near v-Wave "diversified" value
Individual Company Stocks:
Generally 10% Buy SAFE, 0.0% Sell SAFE, 10% of Portf Control as minimum order value, "vealies" used to contain cash buildup to near v-Wave "stocks" value
Hope this helps,
OAG
"Normalization"
It's taken a long, long time.
But, are we there yet?
If we look at the yield of the 10 Year Treasury at 3.875%/Yr and the 13 Week Treasury at 5.503%/Yr we see the Yield Curve is still upside down. So, to answer my own question, I don't think we've reached "normal" for inflation or interest rates.
Like Paul Carrack said in 1975 in his song "How Long" -
"Well your friends with their fancy persuasions
don't admit that it's part of their scheme...."
https://lnkd.in/eA8EgQWF
....last purchase was at $3.49...
Hi Toof,
My last buy was around $3.50, I believe. It was a minimum add of 12% more shares even though AIM was begging for a larger buy.
Best wishes, OAG