CIO, SignalPoint Asset Management, 2008 to 2024, Retired
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Hi Sarmad,
"And as of last Friday, I was 100% invested, with not a penny of cash."
That's not enough! Now you have to go on MARGIN!.
You have to do you part to get this thing rolling again!
Do I hear 150% invested???
Best regards, Tom
Thanks Myst, I can appreciate your wanting to get the spreadsheet right before you complicate things any more!!
Best regards, Tom
Hi Rien, I went looking around the CBOE Options pages today to see if there was any activity on any of my stocks. Well, there weren't very many fat premiums around for me to think about! Apparently nobody thinks the market's going to go up any time between now and about Oct. (that was as far out as I looked)
Maybe it's "Lookin' for Love in all the wrong places."
Best regards, Tom
Hi Conrad, Nobody likes AIM any more. Not enough "Action" I guess.
Most of the buys I made last week are looking okay so far.
I'd like to have a day of selling as strong as last week's
buys, however!
Best regards, Tom
Good morning Sherry,
I'm crossing my fingers, too!
Does that make me an investor?
Best regards, Tom
Good Morning Jack, Last year the Idiot Wave report changed from showing the "smoothed" data to showing the "raw." Actually both numbers are there each week and have been all along, but were disguised.
If you take the current IW value and subtract the Oscillator value from it you'll have the "smoothed" or "old" IW value. Last week the IW was reported at 56% with the Ocillator at +5. So the smoothed data was actually 51% which is traditionally High Risk also.
If the Oscillator is a negative number, change the sign and add it to the IW to get the smoothed value.
I've reported the Oscillator for a long time. I now show both the raw and smoothed graphs for each component and for the Idiot Wave also.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Rien, Your article reminds me a bit of the one I referenced here a couple of weeks ago. Yes, it would seem that we're now in the midst of a true Lichello market - one that is not going to move much beyond the more recent upper and lower limits for some time. If we assume we have a zero "slope" to the long term market averages for a while, it should make AIMers pretty happy.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Myst, If we assumed a taxable rate of 30% for Short Term Capital Gains here in the U.S., how would that affect overall performance in the various examples shown?
Should you include a "tax" column which could be disabled for retirement accounts and enabled for taxable accounts? A "percent" calculator could be used.
Best regards, Tom
Hi ES, Thanks, well stated.
Sometimes at 6:00AM the 10 Gig Download I have is the
best thing that happens to me all day!
I hope all had a happy Mom's Day. We went with friends to a great brunch at Elkhart Lake. Jane and I took in a cabaret theater show last night.
Best regaards, Tom
Hi Sarmad, Thanks for the essay. I follow that logic quite easily. 1998 was troublesome to say the least even though the downturn was relatively brief. '98 taxed my Cash reserves rather heavily and brought the Idiot Wave to Low Risk (an excellent call, btw).
This shows my cash utilization over that period.
(note at the market peak in 2000 I had more cash
on hand than the portfolio's total value in 1998!)
This shows the IW's course during the same period.
Speculation usually self-corrects quickly. We still have incredible retirement sums being set aside from paychecks each month. They are currently being directed to other things than the usual stock funds. One way or another this will create a final support level for the markets.
Best regards, Tom
Hi TF, It seems nearly impossible to flush Speculation out of the system for more than a week or so. With 9 of the 41 Best Performers in Value Line up over 100% a week ago we know there's still too much money around chasing some stocks.
It is quite rare to have the Idiot Wave at High Risk in a declining market. It's usually the other way around. I'd hate to think that this market is "peaking" at these levels! <g>
The definition I use for a bear market is what bad news is treated as bad news and good news is treated as bad news. The converse is also true of bull markets. We'll have to watch for a shift in sentiment.
Best regards, Tom
I don't know how many of you are starting to hear words that sound like "capitulation" from friends. I've started to hear more and more talk of not only the futility of investing but also the final sinking-in of the long term aspects of 9/11.
We continue to hear from one segment of market gurus that the valuations of stocks in general are still way too high. Another segment is claiming that it is just a matter of time until valuations tame down as company earnings improve. Like I heard one time, "That's why there's no One-Handed Economists! They're always saying 'On the other hand!'"
With some of my stocks lower than they've been in over six years, I have taken time to think about what those companies were like in 1996. Many are much more substantial now than then. Even with their sales and earnings currently down, there's production capacity and broader customer base than back then. Back then the worry was whether they could expand quickly enough to keep up with market demand. Now the worry is whether they can "cost control" rapidly enough to stem the flow of blood. When certain industries start to issue purchase orders again, I wonder what the worry will be then?
Best regards, Tom
Hi TF, I don't use their site.
What a nutty week. After all that activity (which undoubtedly made some brokers happy) the NASDAQ Comp. ended down 13 points from last Friday's close! CRAZY!!!
Best regards, Tom
Hi ET, It's a sign of the times.
Lazy Sales people and hard working Purchasing people.
Maybe I'll swap their job descriptions and see if that helps!
TV
Hi Troy, Thanks for starting the thread and for the invitation. I'll do a bit of reading and catching up on SILI as I don't know much about it as of yet.
Good luck with the thread!
Best regards, Tom
Thanks LC, Yep it's a TYPO all right! And a DANDY, too! Yes, the sum of the two smoothing components should be 1.00.
Best regards,
oops@~#$%ed_up.org
Hi Q, Added 58% to my VTSS holding today with a buy at $5.95. I'd made a bunch of buys in other stocks early in the week as they were beaten down, but hesitated on VTSS at the time.
I wanted to check some fundamentals and Short Interest etc on VTSS before ordering. Then Wednesday happened!!!
Well it cost me dearly for waiting an extra day!
That's okay. I've not been able to satisfy all of AIM's buy requests on VTSS for a very long time. This does help get the Next Sell price down quite a bit.
Best regards, Tom
Hi Q, My last STKL activity was a "vealie" which raised the price/share for selling 800 shares to around 3.60. However, I hadn't entered the order as of yet.
I'll be entering it first thing tomorrow. At "only" 50% Cash Reserve for STKL, I feel the need to let it sell once again!
Best regards, Tom
Hi Q, Glad to hear you managed to get a profitable trade off on STKL.
Generally I replace the GTC Sell orders right after reporting to Newport the latest trade info and getting the next Sell Price.
However, on the Buy side I hesitate on placing my Next Buy GTC order until a week's dust has settled (assuming I have plenty of cash). As the Cash Pot empties, I stretch out the replacement time more and more. I've not formally put this at the web site.
What makes sense to me is to use the first 1/3 of max. cash reserves as "petty cash" and spend it weekly when AIM asks for a buy. The next 1/3 I slow the pace to biweekly order replacement. The final 1/3 slows down even further with replacement GTC orders being placed only once a month.
This lets us react to quick short changes and yet still helps us hold back cash for long term buying in a protracted decline.
Hope this helps,
Tom
Hi EZ, Yes, runs in spurts and then gets out of breath for a while. Hope it gets some O2 into the system!
Best regards, Tom
Hi ES,
Try again. Should read Week of 05/06/2002.
http://www.aim-users.com/3bbs.htm
Best regards, Tom
Hi ET, Your post kept me in Stitches.
You must have been ready to Sew some of those shares.
Best regards,
cereal@killer.com
Hi RR, It would be nice to have that happen every day, wouldn't it?
Alas, it appears they sobered up today a bit.
Best regards, Tom
HI TF, Yet UP 25% one day and 20% DOWN the next repeated over and over I could live with! I might make some minor adjustments to AIM to help compensate for this pattern.
I don't much fiddle with SAFE. Once set for the company in question, I generally leave it alone. It takes extraordinary circumstances to make me fiddle.
Best regards,
mcgee@fiddlers.com
The AIM/Idiot Wave newsletter is available at:
http://www.aim-users.com/3bbs.htm
Best regards, Tom
Hi Myst, RE: Exponential Moving Averages
From Stock Market Logic by Norman Fosback
(now THERE's an OXYMORON if I ever saw one!)
"To determine the exponential smoothing constant roughly proportionate to a simple moving average of a given length, use the following easy formula:
Divide "2" by one more than the number of terms in the simple moving average you wish to duplicate. For example, to find a smoothing constant to construct an exponential moving average equivalent to a ten day simple moving average, divide two by eleven. The result, 0.18 is the smoothing constant. After abitrarily establishing the moving average as equal to the first day's price, the moving average is updated by multiplying the newest price by 0.18 and adding that to the product derived from multiplying the previous exponential moving average by 0.82."
Where
X = newest data
Y = previous eMA value
(X * 0.18) + (Y * 0.82)
This will give you the approximate equal to a 10 day simple moving average.
A 50 day eMA would start with 2/51 or 0.0392 for the "smoothing constant. So the formula would be (X * 0.039) + (Y * 0.0961) to get the approx. equal to a 50 day simple moving average.
I've used this exact formula in Lotus 123, so it should work in Excel. Substitute the current Price/Share cell for "X" and the previous eMA cell for "Y" and all should be fine.
Best regards, Tom
Hi TF, Looked around on Google. It appears that Copperheads don't like WI's winters. Mostly south of here.
Well, at least one day of "Feel Good" market was nice!
Net Worth hasn't had that good a day in a while!
Best regards, Tom
Hi EZ, Of Blind Squirrels and such! Price has held up pretty well so far today, up nearly 18% near the close.
I'm sure all the W$ Traders are going to be thinking a lot on their rides back to Connecticut on tonight's train. Did you see the volume on the Q's? Over 100MM shares of just that! QCOM also over 100MM shares.
I'm old enough to remember when there weren't 100MM shares traded on the entire exchange let alone one stock!
Best regards, Tom
Double Grub - 1) praising a grub whilst capturing one simultaneously; 2) Getting second helpings
There should be some special award given for such things!
TV
Here's what the history of this stock's price looks like going way back:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?lotemp=&period=175&chart1=ma&s=VTSS&am...
As you can see, it's not been this cheap in a very long time.
Best regards, Tom
I started a new board here at IHub for anyone interested in one of my long time favorites - VTSS. Here's the address:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1115
Best regards, Tom
Well, with VTSS up over 20% since hitting its SIX YEAR LOW yesterday, I thought it would be a great time to get this new board started. Please feel free to post info on VTSS and the general Telecom. Equip. sector. Also, after being invested in this company's stock for so many years I've absorbed quite a bit by osmosis regarding their products. So, if you don't get too technical, I might be able to field some questions.
Bestr regards, Tom
Hi W, Having never met a copperhead, it's nice to have the opinion of others as to what's logical and pragmatic when in their company! I'd have to look to see if their range extends all the way to WI. Can't remember.
Some times it's nice to have a curious dog around to help point these things out to us!
Best regards, Tom
Hi ET,
"....but I still have some dry powder!"
Yea, wouldn't it be a shame if you didn't manage to get to 120% invested right at the bottom!
Best regards, Tom
Hi Sherry,
"Hey Cisco!"
"Hey Poncho!"
All the Saddles are Blazing today!
Looks like there were plenty of fingers on the Trigger!
Could this be the beginning of some new Happy Trails?
Best regards,
tonto@RoynDale.west
Good morning Keith, Must have been something good in that 'punch' you served up last night! All lights went GREEN this AM. Some stocks are up more in a day than I usually expect to see in a YEAR!
As luck would have it, yesterday was an Inventory Additions Day at VIEW. I'll tell all about it in the newsletter. Right now I'm hurrying to make sure there's plenty of GTC Sell orders in place.
Best regards, Tom
Hi EZ, By pure dumb luck, yesterday was my day to add to my JBL holdings. Stuffed the shelves of the Equity Warehouse with 20% more shares at $18.25 around mid-day.
As of this AM, that purchase is looking pretty smart!
I've already calculated where I'll start to sell some inventory. I'll let about 5% of the holding go at $24.35.
How's that for counting chickens before they hatch!!!
Best regards, Tom
Hi Orig, Hey, I never even thought to look at the ID #. Way Too Cool!
That has to be my best Grub ever, and certainly my best unintential Grub!!
Thanks for pointing it out!!!
Best regards, Tom
Hi Karw, Please remember that two of those graphs are based upon Value Line data which tends to lag the "real time" market by up to three weeks. So, it may not be as bleak as it first appears.
Relative Valuation and Speculation may already be getting better that what is shown by the latest data. Divergence is very quick to self-correct as it measures a form of sentiment each week. There seems to be more mood swings in the market than at a high school dance!!!
All in all, generally High Risk periods don't last very long. Hope you don't have to wait to next year to get all that money invested!
Best regards, Tom
Hi BG,
TMV