CIO, SignalPoint Asset Management, 2008 to 2024, Retired
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My motto has been "Buy from the Scared, Sell to the Greedy" so my STKL is closer to a selling point than a buy right now.
Thanks for the article,
OAG
He stopped by for some sushi!!!
It's a white pine at the lakefront of our cottage.
Ice went out last week so Big Bird is back.
OAG
Purchasing Power.
Does it decline faster than
Our Trust in the FED?
The 13 Week Treasury Rate has stabilized at around 5.3% yield. In the mean time, CPI Inflation has corrected from the late 2022 high. But the rate at which it is correcting has slowed. Stuck near 4%/Yr, it is a cancer for Citizens living on Fixed Income. It's also far above the Federal Reserve's stated long term inflation target.
The FED doesn't feel Inflation's pain the way Citizens do. Nor do Senators or Congressmen. Where's the accountability?
Estate Plan Advice
Listen to Words of Wisdom
J.J. Cale, Claption
Hi EU,
Here's Value Line's entire list of of Entertainment companies in that sector. I found that the Hotel/Gaming sector is right adjacent to the Entertainment sector, so some of those noted were from one and others from the H/G sector. So, I guess we're both right! Anyway, it's always been "happy hunting" in the downtrodden sectors when the bad boy list is loaded from that sector. Generally I look for the healthiest stock in the downtrodden sector. It may not be down as much as the worst performer in that sector, but it usually has better fundamentals and recovers more quickly when the selling/distribution of that sector ends.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Value Line report for Disney (Walt) (DIS) Profile report for Disney (Walt) (DIS) Entertainment 1
AMC Networks AMCX Value Line report for AMC Networks (AMCX) Profile report for AMC Networks (AMCX) Entertainment 3
fuboTV Inc. FUBO Value Line report for fuboTV Inc. (FUBO) Profile report for fuboTV Inc. (FUBO) Entertainment N/A
Endeavor Group EDR Value Line report for Endeavor Group (EDR) Profile report for Endeavor Group (EDR) Entertainment N/A
Fox Corp. 'A' FOXA Value Line report for Fox Corp. 'A' (FOXA) Profile report for Fox Corp. 'A' (FOXA) Entertainment 2
Gray Television GTN Value Line report for Gray Television (GTN) Profile report for Gray Television (GTN) Entertainment 2
iHeartMedia, Inc. IHRT Value Line report for iHeartMedia, Inc. (IHRT) Profile report for iHeartMedia, Inc. (IHRT) Entertainment N/A
Madison Sq. Sports MSGS Value Line report for Madison Sq. Sports (MSGS) Profile report for Madison Sq. Sports (MSGS) Entertainment 4
Lions Gate 'A' LGFA Value Line report for Lions Gate 'A' (LGFA) Profile report for Lions Gate 'A' (LGFA) Entertainment N/A
Live Nation Entertain. LYV Value Line report for Live Nation Entertain. (LYV) Profile report for Live Nation Entertain. (LYV) Entertainment 4
Netflix, Inc. NFLX Value Line report for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Profile report for Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Entertainment 3
Scripps (E.W.) 'A' SSP Value Line report for Scripps (E.W.) 'A' (SSP) Profile report for Scripps (E.W.) 'A' (SSP) Entertainment 5
Sinclair, Inc. SBGI Value Line report for Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI) Profile report for Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI) Entertainment 3
Sirius XM Holdings SIRI Value Line report for Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) Profile report for Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI) Entertainment N/A
Nexstar Media Group NXST Value Line report for Nexstar Media Group (NXST) Profile report for Nexstar Media Group (NXST) Entertainment 3
Roku, Inc. ROKU Value Line report for Roku, Inc. (ROKU) Profile report for Roku, Inc. (ROKU) Entertainment 5
Spotify Tech. S.A. SPOT Value Line report for Spotify Tech. S.A. (SPOT) Profile report for Spotify Tech. S.A. (SPOT) Entertainment 4
Warner Bros. Discovery WBD Value Line report for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) Profile report for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) Entertainment N/A
Warner Music Group WMG Value Line report for Warner Music Group (WMG) Profile report for Warner Music Group (WMG) Entertainment 5
Paramount Global PARA Value Line report for Paramount Global (PARA) Profile report for Paramount Global (PARA) Entertainment N/A
TEGNA Inc. TGNA
Hi Steve, Re Posts.....................
Only 3000 more until we hit 50,000!!!
Keep 'em comming!
Best wishes,
OAG
Congratulations JD,
Have you worn out your Decoder yet? If so, replacements are available again.
Nice job!,
OAG Tom
Thanks JD, Re: Ben Carlson Quote.......................
I've already sent this on to some others.
Thanks,
OAG
Good Morning EU, Re: Ideas from the Best/Worst Value Line List...................
Note there are 8 of the 41 worst stocks from the Broadcast/Entertainment sector (Pages # 2300 and up). This is usually a sign that the sector is a bit over-sold. I'll go study the stocks in an over-sold sector to look for the best long term potentials.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Hi Will,
Once more, congratulations on being 1st to guess Tomaso's Travels.
You'll find the Decoder will sync up nicely with Mr. Lichello’s AIM over time.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
It's been lonely here
That Rule has kept me grounded
Knowing what's to come.
Security check, Customs, inspection by the King, CIA, MI6 and others could delay delivery until 2025 or '26!!!
OAG
Hi Will,
All will be clear when your Secret Decoder arrives!
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
To ALL who post here:
I come to i-Hub for information on various stocks.
I don't come here for your political views.
Keep those to yourself or take them to Zuckerberg Candyland or one of the other non-investment places.
Just assume nobody here gives a rat's butt about your political opinion and you'll be correct.
Now, back to the business at hand................
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi Will, Re: Range around target Cash Reserve...........................
Yes, you are correct in your example. For me, if I was going to see a 4% rise in the cash reserve with a Sale, I'd want to let the cash reserve level to drop to maybe 27% with a 30% target cash. Then, the sale would satisfy cash requirements without over-shooting the actual cash by too much. It would rise to around 31%. Then if the cash target remained steady (risk assessment) that would be followed by yet another vealie down the road if the value continued to rise (shares times price/share).
Actual Cash Reserve percentage, then, can "drift" + or - maybe 3% from the target cash level. Vealies happen if cash is close to, at or above the target level and sales happen if the cash is roughly 3 points below the target. Even if the price/share should double, then at the end you would still be roughly 30% of that ending AIM value. This assumes the target cash (and risk assessment) remain constant.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Hi Steve, Re: Questions...............
1) When a stock or fund is fully funded with cash reserve per my thinking, I don't hold any GTC Limit Sell orders open on it. I wait until the price/share hits my target (or better) and then execute the 'vealie' and update my watchlist target prices on the buy and sell sides.
2) I've been using i-Hub's "Monitor" menu item in a separate window. There I've added a "Memo" column and in there I put the next buy and sell target prices. That's my watchlist. It keeps me up-to-date at a quick glance. I've had other software in the past for such monitoring, but those have all gone "Bye Bye" now, so this is how I handle them today.
3) Yes, if I'm lucky enough to have the price/share race past my next Sell target while I'm napping ( 😎 ) I ask AIM how much the current price would want me to sell and then use that value divided by 2 to add to the Portf Control. Then all's well until the next price move or check-up.
Also, if market risk moves upward so that my current cash percentage isn't satisfactory, I'll execute a sale at the next target price to bring cash up toward the new market risk cash suggestion. Going the other way on risk, if risk drops and my cash looks too fat, I'll just have a chance to do more 'vealies' until either risk rises again, or cash gets diluted by stock position growth, or a buy cycle comes along and naturally lowers cash again.
I'll look through my Newport histories and see if I have a good 3 year period of trades and vealies as an example.
Best regards,
OAG Tom
Hi Adam, Re: Double Vealies..............
I've done that, too. And I've also done "Full vealies" or take the entire selling amount and adding it to PC. That usually scrubs out any residual sell suggestion.
OAG Tom
Hi Grabber, Re: Minimum Trade Amount (value)....................
Let's say I have my AIM engine set to sell $1000 as a minimum trade at the next target price. Overnight the stock price goes up beyond the target, AIM would say to sell $1200 instead of just $1000. I'd divide the $1200 by 2 and add 600 to Portfolio Control. (not 500, which would be 1/2 the minimum trade order amount)
Generally, a vealie will only raise the "next" buy and sell targets by about 2.5% to 5%, so it doesn't move the Lichello Hold Zone by very much. Over the years in bullish times I'll see the cash max out and then a series of vealies interspersed with some sales. This keeps the cash reserve percentage near what my target level is as the overall engine grows. (The target for common stocks is usually derived from the v-Wave or the SignalPoint Market Risk Indicator. Some income funds I use a fixed maximum cash level, such as 20% or 30%)
In general, vealies have done a nice job for me. Limiting cash buildup during long bullish periods has been productive. The sacrifice is not being as well protected if a Black Swan with diarrhea decides to fly overhead. I also, as part of this strategy, conserve cash on the downside with delayed sequential buying and such. Basically, if you're going to restrict build-up of cash, you also need to be more restrictive and structured in the use of cash in downturns.
Hope this helps,
OAG
Good morning Steve, Re:..............is the Sell Market Order / 2 PC adjustment driven by market price (Lichello Calc), or by your pre calc'd Next Sell order?
In my case, it's the Sell Market Order's value, not the minimum trade amount. Half of the suggested Sell order is what I add to Portfolio Control. If that won't erase the urge to sell completely, then I'll do another 'vealie' and that will usually eliminate the sell suggestion.
Hope this helps,
OAG Tom
That photo was taken on a state highway in Tennessee. Some other very cool cars were right behind me. There were about 3000 cars moving from city to city for the 5 day journey. Very cool. This year's HRPT is in Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana. I'm thinking of doing the Ohio and Indiana days - maybe take my 13 year old grandson with me.
OAG
Well, they're never completely "finished"........................
However, it took several months of small things and most of a summer to get the body work done and ready for paint. It was around the beginning of October, 2009 when I took it to the DMV for inspection and getting the operating title, registration and plates. So, somewhere around 6 months. The guy who started the project found they'd changed the laws on "home built" cars in his state and he couldn't register it there. So, I bought it unfinished from him, but a lot of work was already done and quite satisfactorily.
Choosing paint scheme and colors wasted a lot of time!!
2008 Jaguar Chili Red Mica with 2008 GM Panel Truck Tan.......
Of course I had to two tone the wheels, too..... and then add white walls!
Motor Trend Magazine featured my car in their cover art for the 2023 Hot Rod Power Tour. I was in the 2022 HRPT - 2600 miles round trip from Wisconsin to Tennessee, Alabama, Florida and Georgia. It was yet another Bucket List item. Here's the image they used:
OAG
A company in Massachusetts, Factory Five, built the kit. It was #007 and the first one sold to the public. It was partially assembled when I bought it. I finished it.
https://www.factoryfive.com/33-hot-rod/
There are now about 1000 of the kits that have been sold. The first 6 were either mules or SEMA show cars. Mine was one of the first to be licensed for the street. That was in 2009.
The rest is FAST History!!
OAG
I fancied myself a road racer from 1988 thru 2007. I drove a variety of '50s British sports cars in what's called "vintage racing."
When I gave up my competition license I decided to build a "street rod" - something I'd wanted to do since I worked at a Sunoco station back in high school.
I finished the car in 2009 and since have put ~15,000 to 20,000 miles on it. (some of those miles were on track days at the local race course nearby)
It's fun and noisy and just what an old guy like me needs to keep my heart beating!
Best wishes,
OAG
It would probably be 1000Lbs lighter if it were fueled directly from gasoline. Steep driveways in Snow Country can be challenging for heavy vehicles.
All that said, the Teslas were kicking serious butt last summer at the drag strip. All wheel drive and instant torque can make up for a lot!
I found out 13 year old tires don't get much traction!!
Thanks Tom and Welcome,
I watched it on YouTube a couple of years ago but haven't looked for it in a while. I'm sorry to see it 'disappear' from our collective history.
Thanks for the notification,
OAG Tom
Thanks Pedro, Re: Money Spinner...........................
It's been a while since the Money Spinner has been discussed here on the Board. There was quite a bit of discussion years ago. It's quite similar to AIM but I don't recall the differences.
Best wishes and Welcome,
OAG Tom
IRBT was the "worst" on Value Line's list! Down 64% in just 13 weeks!
OAG Tom
HI EU,
Re: Trip................
Yes it was a great vacation and one much needed. While our winter here in WI has been mild, it's still nice to go someplace where water isn't frozen!
We usually attempt a week or so in a salty, sunny, sandy and warm place each year. Turks is one of our favorites, even if it's getting a bit "popular" these days. Somebody said God only made so much shoreline!
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi EU, Re: Beaten Down Stocks.................
I will use Value Line's "Best and Worst Performing Stocks - Latest 13 Weeks" for some ideas once in a while. One thing I look for is how many companies from the same industry sector are on the "Worst" list. Some times there are as many as 20% of the 41 stocks listed that are from one industry. A definite "Oversold" signal for that sector. That's not the case this week, however.
Other things I watch for on this list are stocks that move from the "Worst" to the "Best" list (and visa versa). If I see a sector that is oversold, I'll then go to that sector in Value Line and look at all the companies there. Many times I'll find a stock that's not on the Worst list that's beaten down with the sector but is fundamentally very strong. Consider such stocks the best of the worst!
I note that Forward Air shows up on your list and also on Value Line's "Worst" list for the latest 13 weeks.
Best wishes,
OAG
Re: Steve's referenced AIM material from the old aim-users.com web site:
https://web.archive.org/web/20120118093621id_/http://www.aim-users.com/aimchng.htm
Thanks Steve for bringing this up. I'd almost forgotten I'd done this way back then. It would appear I did the various VTSS simulations up to around 2001. I don't remember when VTSS was bought out, but it either merged or was acquired by another semi company. That was the end of that particular "Love Story" with this stock. I note that Mr. Buynhold did quite well, beating the AIM examples. However, he also consumed 342 gallons of MAALOX along the way!
Best wishes,
OAG
Boy, Steve. That's jumping into the Wayback Machine!
My best guess is total return was the end value of the stock+cash divided by the starting stock+cash.
For the average amount at risk, I would average each period's invested percentage over the test. In this case it appears it was 56% invested on average.
(Sum of each period's invested percentage divided by the total number of periods)
Then, Return On (average) Capital At Risk (ROCAR) is simply total return percentage divided by the decimal of average invested. In this case, it's 0.56. Then, 2146% / 0.56 = 3832% ROCAR.
ROCAR gives us a feel of how hard AIM has worked to achieve its results. You can't take ROCAR to the bank but you can use it to compare AIM's result to Mr. Buynhold. Mr. Buynhold's total return and ROCAR are the same since he's 100% invested and at risk (divisor = 1.000).
That's about the best I can do after about 20+ years!
Thanks for asking. A CPA friend of mine reviewed the concept at the time said it was valid for risk comparison.
Best regards,
OAG Tom