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BCLI is doing its homework, and hopefully the technology works. But, a 3 year wait for a non-revenue biotech is the equivalent of a long slog through quicksand. The Canada and Israel options from what I heard are 'off the table'. No to compassionate use possibilities. I don't know what else these guys will have to sustain the share price. Further dilution will happen. I just don't know if it's going to be above or below the $2 mark. I don't have the nerve to sell, but I can understand those who are exiting, with the possibility of getting back in in the mid-$2's....it's headed there.
TOP-LINE data 2 years from now? Seems like timeline is pushed back by at least half a year. Complete data, submission to medical journal, and publishing....looking at 2H20/1H21! Yikes. I hope they've got something else to keep things going while we wait 3 years...
Tred, thanks for these reminders. I also own AVXL (3 years). But, you can use NR TODAY!!! It is not RX, not requiring doctors' visits, etc. will not have to go thru trials to be available to every human being on earth, and to-date with tens if not hundreds of thousands of uses (consumer trials) without negative affects. The R&D is not even on the company's dime! It is here. It is now....not 3-5 years from now after tens of millions in trial expenses. Clearly I hope both AVXL and CDXC are winners. Perhaps they will be directed for synergistic use. What else is out there TODAY for use TODAY?
Today's Alzheimer news puts CDXC in a new league. For anyone with a relative with this disease, there is NOTHING in the marketplace that can remotely help. If Rudi Tanzi, the foremost Alz. authority in possibly the world, gives his thumbs up for NR to be "studied", he is signaling that this is ok to give to your folks...no harm, no foul. For a $100-$500 investment, without the need of going to a physician to get prescribed worthless/harmful RX drugs, you can experiment with NR and possibly achieve beneficial results. Adult nutrition drinks cost just as much, and I don't believe there is any science to back up their helpfulness. There will be 10,000's of new prescribers/users in 2018, once these learnings hit social media and get some play. Normal Valuations are going to become moot. I can now easily see the analyst $70M+ revenue projections in 2018 being met. It is becoming a lot clearer why our nameplate investors have come to the party.
Regardless of how lawsuit shakes out, share price is ludicrously levitated at this level (Approx $7 PPS x approx 55M shares by year-end, $385M cap with approx $30 run-rate), 11x sales. Could there be another bump-up on some news in the near future? Possibly, but reality will set in thereafter. PPS is running way too quickly for the company's health. If this gets to $10, CDXC would be crazy not to do another financing and set themselves up properly for the next 3 years. Any glitch, and this will become a full risk-on situation once again. Valuation here is my concern. GLTA
good reading of charts!
Either Exxon test was non-consequential, and/or they are going to need to do a secondary raise at $1.50?? This is a high, high risk situation, to say the very least.
company is starting to implode. cancelled their Ultratek losing millions of investment, then cancelled their Tedom JV agreement that was a big part of their future. Stock trading more volume today than past 2 weeks combined. Down 20% in 2 days. This happens every time the old fool John H. unfortunately participates in quarterly cc's. I feel sorry for the Management which has to put up with him. He needs to be given "senior advisor' status, and sidelined. No One will ever get serious about this company until he leaves active status.
Oh boy, a new low share price as they announce a "brief update" cc next week. A really poorly worded PR. What are they thinking....telegraphing an end to the Ultratek venture? Looks like it. If so, then they'll be taking a $charge, and thereby torpedo this quarter's numbers. Bummer.
interesting. guess PSTI would qualify for 'life-threatening'...pretty broad definition. my other company in this regard is BCLI (ALS) which would probably have immediate impact for that population.
enhanced profile, however the product still cannot be sold, correct?
like <7 posts. undiscovered. lets see them execute...financing, production before we get too confident
question: if Israel initial patients start soon, how can they expand to the 50+ additional in Q1 2018 if the trial is 18-21 months? Even if you knock off the standard 3-4 months for enrollment..
I wouldn't exactly call TGEN a BEAST, however, its a reasonable speculation for a double within 12 months. Conservative, and growing, and totally unknown. A very good combination, that sooner or later pays off. Buying in dribs and drabs below $3.50 or so is a very good approach for a real payoff by 2020 - $15-$18 TARGET. 3 years, 500%. And, that IS reasonable.
Agree with legal opinion re Elysium to remain as one of the only distributors. But, they will be on CDXC's leash/terms. Perfect situation for CDXC as they will call all the shots in order for Elysium to remain a "qualified" retailer of NR. CDXC has gone from low risk high return, to high risk very high return. KaShing knew all this going in, and hopefully will bring high risk to low risk due to his skin in the game. Horizon Ventures will be the built in distribution arm and internet hub. Great great opportunity here during this 360 Pivot, but will be a scary ride the next 3 quarters while they burn through $6+MM.
You need money to build a brand. Frank tried this once before, by going retail, and almost sunk the company. This time he has the capital, and he will go through less expensive, less risky DTC as opposed to going it alone through traditional Food Drug Mass Merch channels. KaShing's folks may help this along in Asia. Could be a very interesting ride.
$25M is not being used to purchase a CD.
Their R&D plant and personnel are developing products. Those products are likely competitive with other customers businesses. Why would they be foolish enough to put their destiny in the hands of those who can screw them over. They can do the same thing, at much, much higher margins, and now they have the seed money to do ANYTHING they want. They can keep those customers in the other verticals, and there will be enough of a market where everyone can make money off their NR. A DTC would impact their biggest EX-customer the hardest. So be it.
IMHO...you will know what their plans are when they are 90% prepared for a launch, or at launch of a website. Why spill the beans earlier. I have to wonder whether this $25M deal announcement at this time is further to press an immediate settlement on CDXC terms in the next week.
Feeling better about the immediate (2018) prospects here...hopefully P&G products, another CPG company signed up, a robust existing business, and their new Direct-to-Consumer. If we grow sales to $50+M, this company will sport a market cap of $400M. Huge upside here, with at least 50% likelihood of coming to pass.
Elysium's $25M trap-door. With this investment, Frank will be competing directly with Elysium for the direct-to-consumer business. I am sure that the CDXC has a whole range of products that they will be marketing. I hope that they get their customer list, in exchange for extending them a limited supply, based on the past year's level of business. Elysium is check-mated on this. And if the court case goes against them as well...Lights-out.
Adam F. has a made-for-order story for Monday or Tuesday. How low can this share go once Adam gets ahold of it down at this level?
Thanks for posting this!
interesting to see the contract exclusions, as that may be where the company is directing its efforts. If you google methyl donors, for example, that suggests No Go for Elysium and others for nutritional applications, formulas, etc if I understand the general concept.
There are branded food companies that Private Label. The car companies have divisions that produce parts for their industry. Not sure the logic could easily apply here. Won't disagree about the terms, as I am not intimately familiar, but CDXC could set up a division with differentiated offerings that do not compete directly with some of its smaller customers purchasing from them. 80/20 rule in terms of Elysium business versus the smaller guys. As CDXC gets P&G others up and running, they could easily take on/over the role of an Elysium.
Why not go hostile with Elysium. CDXC does not need them. Offer them a deal. Either they become a subsidiary of CDXC with a certain buy-in/out price, or CDXC comes out with its own line of Elysium knock-off, and quickly puts them out of business. I do not believe that CDXC has any obligation to continue to sell to them due to this pricing/non-payment conflict, depending upon a court's decision of guilt. Either way, Elysium goes out of business if it is starved of CDXC materials, or they survive at CDXC's choosing of the medicine they have to swallow. If CDXC wishes to checkmate them, it looks like they can.
Subs, congrats, you played this well.
Subs, too much drama here, but could still work out nicely for you.
put my money on a good story...akts..good stuff happening
most recent news is really stunning. how in the world does this kind of deal fall into the lap of a ZERO revenue-producing company?
OMG what a sh-- show. Not worth showing up for this mud fight, which could last a while. If the smart operational guys take off, there is nothing left here.
Yup. Jerry probably had to disgorge his holdings, or the board could have threatened a bunch of legal actions. I am sure that Jerry had to reimburse and become an ex shareholder. (Jerry did possess a very well-appointed wardrobe). IMHO
were the substantial part of her 9.9 bought from Jerry's holdings?
open market just for the past week's buys (approx 30K shares) or the full 10% of company shares?
did she buy up Jerry's shares?
Thanks for posting. Very interesting. This lady appears to be very shrewd. This could be a longer term opportunity...what if she combines this with another one of her 10% stakes in another digital/telecom company..SITO could still go lower, but good to know she is here and putting up a decent investment.
maybe, would be the right thing to do
I'm done. Best of luck. Not worth the aggravation until the smoke clears.
Yes, would agree that there is probably a good plan to advance the business. And it will have a positive outcome, at some future time. The issue for me is that the outcome, barring some revenue producing result, or promise of result, is in the future, ie. 2018 and beyond, with a BP partner, based on good science. In the near-term, this is over-priced based on their core nutraceutical business, and the lack of progress/movement on the consumer side. This is supposed to be a consumer company. This is a slow slog until we see this ingredient in a brand name product in a consumer aisle of your grocery store. When that happens, the stock will spike.
Maybe. I am quite concerned, and have sold most of my position. They are handling this quite poorly. There may be more shoes that drop. I am in a wait and see mode. Could this go sub-$1? Who knows. I don't want to be a holder as it sinks. Might be a better approach to see some significant positive news before picking up this hot coal. Very bad job with the PR. They need a shareholder letter....and fast.
The CEO is doing the best he can. The price is TOO HIGH for where they are in their development. Reality has set in, and the status quo will hold until there is an event, a big event, such as the launch of a Consumer Branded product from P&G or someone else to take this to the next level.
Annual Letter largely a repeat of 2016's, albeit with good trends. Bottom line, we are 1 year overdue on the Consumer applications. The anticipated Consumer line is the great white hope, and the reason this is trading 8x sales. Without Consumer coming through, CDXC is OVER_VALUED here. I don't think Consumer (P&G, etc.) will launch until 2018..which leaves everything dangling until Q4, 2017. That leaves a vacuum for a fall, potentially back to where we were 3 years ago at $.65 pre-reverse ($1.95), but at that time fewer shares out. Right now we are a 1 trick NR pony (everything else is sidelined) with niche nutraceutical applications. BPI obviously never got off the ground. Unclear whether we will be burning cash without the Elysium volume, and we'll be racking up Legal costs in Q4 and heavier in Q1. If the market takes a swoon we easily go below $2 without some significant news. OTOH, if P&G ever comes on-line, we are back at $4 in a heartbeat. I am praying they get another Consumer company on board, with a deal that is structured with some up-front funding. The stock is otherwise toast. Oh, and get the rebuttal ready for the next SA attack article in Q2.
If the market dips, or if one of the following analysts puts a Hold/Sell out, then watch out below.
Wish I knew the real reason Jerry was given the boot. I had a sell order placed that day at $2.25 but it dropped too quickly. Still in there. If the Team sticks this through, this could be a great buy at $1.50-$1.75 on a swoon.
You nailed it. There is obviously something major league wrong here. Wish I knew what.
They have to demonstrate an ability to grow their business. Until they do, this is going down. This was $1.50 (split adjusted) 3 years ago. It might get there again. Incredible. Jerry might need to merge with another company, and somebody has to give up control. Big challenge here.