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I am seeing the same thing, temporary support. Question is when to get back in short? A two day rally, up big, that is a good short op.
All we did was fall back to the lower bollinger band.
Now, often we get another couple down days, then a rally. If that happens, then the rally will not last long. If we can bounce here, then next couple weeks could see new highs.
Nothing is certian, everything is possible.
a lot of support at 1535, if we break it then could crash quickly.
is for sure a sell now on next rally. Every correction starts like this, with another rally flushing out all the week short hands.
In the next week, anyting is possible, but I predict a 10% rally or more in gld by august, and then I think we drop a lot more, but would not bet on that.
This big a drop, you have to get a reflex rally, is normal. Also, too much bearishness, leads to a rally.
Gold will rally to $2400 in the next couple years, but likely it will fall to 1200 first.
Gold will eventually shine, but could be another year before it really rallies.
Not sure why it fell so hard, other than broke support and goodbye. Computer programs, will do in the market eventually too.
Super high trin, lots of negativity, should bounce back to yesterdays high next week.
aS to gold, a rally back to between 143 and 149 on gld makes good sense, and then a collapse down to who knows what, before the next bull move off a financial crises is my best guess, and part of my trading plan for gld.
I may be the biggest bear on this board, but another rally that will fail is my best guess from here. Better earnings, some kind of decent news, etc.
However, the end is near for at least a 5% correction, and maybe a lot more.
tops take time to form. Worry is that the computer programs can do what they did in the flash crash, and we can fall hard and fast anytime support is broken, so be careful buying dips.
spx holding previous low of 1543, interesting. High trin, selling climax, should (but not will for sure) rebound here.
We are getting the same pattern like the previous small correction. Question as always, is this time different?
Looks like spx 1580 is the point to short on next rally. BTW, 21dam is turning down, and vix 21dma is turning up, both bearish signals, but often there is another rally first before the big decline.
Tried to short heavily in afterhours yesterday, but did not get filled. so what else is new?
gold will drop with markets, look at today.
I have so many times bought 6 months before a market top, thinking i could make money, some "safe" investment.
There is no safe investment, not even cash. But I once again lost money buying gld this time, last year, at 150. How could I lose? Did not sell at 170, as was going higher.
I think gld has major support at 130, will sell if it runs back to 150
today is an inside day, so the short term trend is still down. I expect another couple days of selling, maybe even below 1535, and will short if all fits near the end of the day, but for now, not doing anything
Gold is in a bear market, gld going to 120, but could first rally up to 140 in the next couple weeks. OUch.
That was another 3% correction, nothing more. What does confuse me is we did not drop to the lower trend line at 1535, which is also the gap from March 3rd.
Still very bullish pattern, amazing. Gold and commodities signaling economy is not doing well, but market is all about the fed pumping, nothing more.
BTW, when you see us down 8% in a day, then you can start talking about doom and gloom. I suspect we see that by October.
All we did yesterday was drop back to the 21dma, and everyone thinks the rally is over.
Am not willing to go long now *afterhours yesterday was it, sds rose to 45), but am not willing to short either.
Most likely, the decline will continue into next week, but not much lower.
Lets see how price reacts to intc earnings afterhours, and next couple days how price reacts to earning, instead of if they are good or bad.
I was on vacation on monday, typical, but covered the shorts I had in other peoples accounts (am not taking clients) at the close on monday.
I think we do have a reversal, but I also think we go back to 1600 on spx before the correction.
Market never makes it easy.
At 62, and with no children, grandchildren are not in my future! Am trying to convince my GF to have children with me, she is the first woman in my life i could actually think about doing that with, she is that special.
Most likely will not last, but I have been with her for almost afull year and a half. Every time i see her, I am in heaven.
Market has never been more trechorous, as the economy is not doing well at all, but the fed is pumping so much money, along with the other central banks, it is forcing prices up.
Enjoy your grandchild.
Notice how last 2 corrections, 1531 to 1485, drop of 46, add 46 to 1531 and you get 1576.
Then up to 1574, drop to 1540, drop of 34, add to 1574 and you get 1608.
Not sure how it plays out, but shorting again at 1605 makes sense, if everything else fits.
This is something I have used many times in the past, and it works.
Until then, watching and thinking about how when i want out, like on monday morning, just get out and dont think about trying to get a good price.
Just spent time with the love of my life, she is worth more than all the gold in the world! Kisses sweeter than wine. Is 25 years younger than me and DDG. Not after my money, I dont have much. Makes no sense, but like the market, just go with the trend and dont worry about the details. Would put her pic on here, but dont know how to, and then you would all be jealous and not want to read my posts.
upper channel for spx at 1629 and rising slowly. If we can break that line next week, or even touch it, then short with impunity
Sold my sds at 42.95, ouch.
I have no idea what is going on, time to stop trading and look at the big picture.
My gut is screaming sell, the system is still on a buy, but close to a sell.
Trading when i am unsure, is a sure way to lose money, like this week.
I have traded since 1984, and seriously since 1986.
Seen it all.
Gold is in a bull market, as central banks are printing money as fast as they can. just price reacting to poor economies right now.
30% is not a big deal in a major bull market. Like if we correct 30% later this year in the dow and spx, could pave the way for another bull market.
Bottom line: doomsayers are right, just too early. My experience says we have a financial crises next year or later this year, and that will be a time to buy.
major support for gld between 130 and 140, if that fails, then maybe the bull is over. Typical.
the only charts that go far back that I can access are on yahoo, and it can not give a 200 week ma.
My gut says 130 on gld before the bottom. But watch for a week of massive volume on selling climax to give a signal. Then watch for the 200dma to turn up, price to get above it and fall back to it, then buy with impunity.
works for every chart.
Something strange is going on with gold. Not buying more to be honest, will buy stocks when we hit a bottom later this year or next.
I still think gold runs to $2400 in the next couple years, but what triggers that I cant say, so not so sure about that prediction.
Honestly, have been so wrong about the spx the past 4 months have little confidence in my abilities, and so will stop trading for awhile.
I expect spx 1574 to hold today or early next week, will cover my shorts later today, as this rally is not over. Insane.
Gold had a 30% correction in 2008, and if we get another one, gld drops to 132 (current 145).
Everybody is saying the bull is dead in gold, but 30% corrections in a major bull market in commodities is not a big deal (in the long run, short run will destroy fortunes)
eventually the printing presses will cause high inflation, is a given.
Did not buy more sds, waiting, waiting. Will put order to buy more thursday, but not sure at all about what comes next, so better to be careful for now.
Today could be the top and am short if it is. If not, have more firepower to short more when we top.
BTW, 5day trin gave a sell, but does not always work in a strong trend like now. Nothing works in a strong trend but the trend.
Can not believe we keep going up, but the most bullish thing a market can do is go up.
gold will shine, but could drop to $1200 an oz first.
Have 10% of my money in it, ouch, from last year.
Have 40% in sds, just doubled up my sds at 42.8. Avg cost 43.3. My gut is we either repeat pattern from last sept, and go up a lot more, or today is the top. If we dont drop big tomorrow, then will fill todays gap and then run up higher, so shorting now makes good sense as a trader.
Amazing! dont fight the fed is right.
However, this is the 1% up move in a day that should make a top. It could also be like last sept, and just be the start of another 2 week rally, so not time to sell the farm and short yet.
Good thinking about how the fed can keep prices going up, when fundamentals dont suppport it, like in early 2000.
Just some random thoughts:
Today could have been the top, but my gut says we need to make higher high, like 1580 before the bottom falls out.
But then again, the market never does what most people expect.
Possible we can still run up to 1600 this week, why am not going fully margined short just yet!
Will add to my short at 1580 if we get there.
Current rally is now 93 days long without a correction at least 5%. Only 4 rallies that lasted longer than that in past 18 years:
Sept 2003 - 118 days up 17%
Oct 2005 - 141 days up 14%
June 2006 - 172 days, up 20%
August 2010 - 118 days up 29%
and now since Nov 2012, 93 days up 17%
5 day trin will give a sell if we have a low trin today and tomorrow.
Probably early buying sds today.
BTW,am finished buying uvxy, is not worth owning unless you are almost exactly right with the timing. Sds is a bit more forgiving.
Too much complacency, will have a 10% correction soon, though we could hit 1600 on spx first, so may dump my sds soon.
Bought 1k of sds at 43.7, will pick up more near close if we keep going up.
AA doing well, no sell signal short term, most likely new highs tomorrow.
Like to see a 1% move up in a day for a final top.
What is dumb one day, becomes smart the next. still going up, but for how long?
Resitance at 1573 and 1580 on spx, think one of them is the near term top.
Seeing lots of signs of a top, but not a clear sell on the daily.
Hope we get super high tick at close, then short at will.
Love to tell everyone how much money I made, but was up big friday, and down big today.
We are close to a top, but not there yet. thought we would drop some more before a final push, but looks like final push first.
Like sds at 43.6
Support levels for spx:
1530 and rising a point each day - 50dma
1521 - trend line from lows in nov and early january, very important support, if broken,then the rally is for sure over, but another rally up to touch it again is likely.
1515 and rising slowly - lower bollinger band
Today is not a bottom, still more downside next week, but I bet above supports will hold, which one is the question.
One last commment: goldman and commodities falling, not bullish. 5dma for trin very high at close yesterday, and a lot of worry in the options, very bullish short term
Will short any rally of 1%, at the close if on friday, and then more on monday, but want to be short the weekend on any big up day friday. If we instead go down big, could be set up for the last rally.
Of course, watch for a no move day, smallest range in years. nothing would surprise me with the central banks printing money fast as they can.
I am the sucker, buying GLD last year. Dumb and dumber. It actually went up for a couple weeks, but I believed in the buy and hold for that asset.I still have 5 golden eagles I bought for $300 each in 1999, my best year for investing and trading ever. I only made 4 trades all year, shorting amzn and ebay, but made big money each time. Sold my csco bought in march 1994 in jan 2000, 3 months too early, but for a good profit, and that is all that counts.
BTW, when the walls come tumbling down, gold will fall hard too.Am hoping the central banks win the battle, the economy all over the world run wild, my house doubles in value and my gld doubles.
Dreaming is more fun than watching the market. going to be a wild ride tomorrow, will check later in the morning, up or down?
I want to go short so bad, but being disciplined and waiting, waiting for a big up day, maybe after a big down day first, to short big time.
I could be missing the correction, but if I go short and we go up big tomorrow, then I will lose my condidence and not short more.
Good luck to all. BTW, the put call on the isee is extremely low 4 days in a row, pretty rare, and I think bullish. Too many people worried for such a small drop.
anything is possible, nothing is certian. Possible the money printing all over the world will lead to inflation in assets and commodity prices. Will be good for the middle class, terrible for the poor, but when is anything ever good for the poor, other than social programs? And they have their downside, etc.
Short term, my system along with the option numbers favor more upside in short term, although a down day tomorrow would not surprise me at all. If that happens, watch for more short term signals to go long to a new high.
bottom line: this rally is on its last legs, but tops take weeks to form normally, and this one will be no exception, unless N Korea actually explodes a nuclear device outside its country, then look out below.
gld at major support, a break lower and gold goes back to $1200 an oz.
My gut is gold rallies, but we have still not seen the low, which will happen when the market finally collapses later this year.
Will go heavily short if we rally up 1% or more tomorrow. My system says that is the most likely short term pattern, but not risking a trade.
yep, tight patterns.
I will probably regret it, but sold my sds for 44.7, my gut says up big tomorrow to end the rally on bogus news.
If not, looking to go long on next buy signal. Never seen so much pessimism in the options numbers when market is near a new high.
Greenspan was smart enough to retire 2 years before the economy turned south big time, partly due to his poor judgement about the threat of bad mortgages. All the fed and treasury fools were saying bad mortgages were not a problem for the economy in the fall of 2007.