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VirTra has NEVER been a leaky ship with respect to earnings reports, at least since I have been following since early 2009.
Think back just 1 year. The stock initially reacted badly to what some saw as a light Q4. It was actually a really good Q4 and the stock was higher within a few days.
BUT THEN....look at what they announced in mid-May 2016 with Q1. No one saw that coming....$6mil in rev and $2.4mil in net income!
The stock dropped harder the last few days because it went below $2 then some owners start to panic and simply want out before a cap gain becomes a cap loss. It is painful to earn an asset that declines in value day after day after day. But that is exactly when you need to do what Joe did today ----BUY. When it is painful, that is when you buy.
I also have a hard time getting too crazy when the stock could easily be at all time highs by noon on Friday.
What if they announce a quarter like Q1? Stock will be $4 by 10am.
What if they announce a quarter like last Q4? Up we go.
What if they announce a quarter worse than Q3? Likely stuck around $2.
What if they say 2017 is gonna stink? Hello $1.40.
Soon we will know.
Oops, didn't realize volume was 75k shares.....still not many but something.
At this price, the stock is a buy no matter what Q4 looked like. Here are a few random thoughts:
1. I'm irked I was off-grid most of the day and couldn't buy.
2. Enterprise value is now about 23mil, probably close to what 2017 revenue will be. That is way too cheap for a 20% YOY grower that is profitable and debt free.
3. There is not any leak of Q4 results, that is stupid talk.
4. Volume is still about nothing. Even today, insignificant. Until it starts trading 1% or more of outstanding each day, none of this matters. 1% would be 158,000 shares, 4X today's volume!
5. It is childish and immature for Ferris and BOD not to comment on the state of the company during this entire 3 month decline.
6. Q3 was announced on Nov 15, that is half way thru Q4. Go back and read the release. Q4 will be fine based on what was stated in the Q3 release.
7. Mod Round website is under maintenance, hope they post the date of the next opening when it is back online.
8. Larry the IR guy might be a very nice man but it would seem neither he nor Ferris know how to deal with shareholders.
9. If anyone wants to make a run at an alternative slate of directors either this year or next year, count me in. I just don't want to do the work.
Both the company and individual insiders are locked out until 2 trading days after the earnings release. First day they can buy is Tuesday, one week from tomorrow.
Upcoming catalysts:
1. Start of last remaining Ph2 trial. For sure in Q2, likely in April or May.
2. Novartis signing the option. The "trigger" to sign is the start of the last remaining Ph2 trial. "Trigger" is a direct quote from Conatus CEO Mentos.
Then there are many catalysts later in 2017 and throughout 2018. 2017 will have some big milestone payments. 2018 will have even bigger milestone payments based on the trial results as they are announced.
Women...now there is another topic we agree on. I haven't done anything right in the 18 years we've been married, just ask her.
I get chippy when stocks move against me when I see it as preventable.
Given the underlying numbers and forward prospects and track record there is no reason to be putting shareholders through this.
It could have all been prevented easily and without spending a dime of company money. It boils down to communication with investors.
1. BOD and Insiders could have bought some shares late last Fall.
2. Company could comment on share decline.
3. Company could issue forward guidance and give us some idea of how they envision the company to look in 3 years.
There is no excuse to sit with mouth shut as Ferris is doing.
This will probably be rolled into Smith & Wesson at $1.50/share. Criminal.
I generally agree with you Gregg, however....
If Ferris and BOD is unable to attract insti res coverage as an OTC stock, they will also be unable to do it as a Nasdaq stock. Attracting coverage and buyers is not exactly difficult in this day and age. It is very easy IF one WANTs to do it, and I have my doubts.
Acquisitions - Sure, nothing wrong with doing some manageable accretive acquisitions. I hope they do. That said, I would rather see someone buy VirTra so we can end our misery as shareholders. Does Ferris not understand he is risking the entire company by going along with this $2 share price? Someone could buy the company for $2.50 right now. Shareholders would approve it. In 2 weeks, we might be really happy to get $1.50.
The last thing that is clear to me is that Modern Round has failed. Stick a fork in it, they are done. They need $5mil in revenue per site to breakeven and they are not close to that sort of number. They don't even have the funding in hand to open site #2. Ferris should sever all ties right now.
What a clown show.
Ferris and the VirTra BOD actually do have a legal and fiduciary responsibility to do what is in the best interest of shareholders.
Ferris does not understand that it is not enough to deliver 20% YOY revenue and earnings growth. While that is certainly the most important it is not all that is important.
For the company not to comment in any way when their shareholders have had half their money taken away, that in my eyes IS actually close to criminal.
Furthermore, for VirTra to have gone to all the trouble to uplist to the OTC without having buyers lined up is also a clown-like move. Who is that stupid? I really thought last Summer and Fall that Ferris understood that he had to get buyers lined up and ready to support the stock. What a fool I was to think he was shareholder friendly/savvy.
I am not selling yet, but if there isn't improvement within a year I will be gone from the stock.
The company cannot buy back when insiders are locked out. This is a big problem. The company was locked out for the last 2 weeks of Q4 until 2 trading days after Q4 is announced.
Of course, even if they weren't locked out would they be buying?
Even today, volume was nothing. About 25,000 shares. Many of us could sell that many every day for a couple weeks and still have some left.
Problem is no buyers and for that, Ferris and VirTra BOD are at fault.
If the stock stays this low for the next 6 - 9 months then the company needs to be sold.
Enterprise value is $26million. That is a sick joke.
The Badgers will probably give me a heart attack tonight. So I might only have half a day left.
I take back my "no volume" comment. Someone flipped the switch! Yea.
Nice to see it going the right direction but not much volume today. I suspect that will change when people notice "April" and "Q2" on their calendars.
A webcast and CC are the EXACT same thing. Neither one is "watched" - your word. In both cases, you simply log in and listen to it either by using your phone or your computer. Exact same thing that Pepsi does and 3M and every other company does.
Yes, there is clearly a seller among us. Not me.
Why does anyone here even care about a single quarter's result? This is a stock to own for the next several years or a decade. If it pops to $4 on Friday, will you sell? No. If it dumps to $1, will you sell? No. So who cares.
They are a 20% YOY grower. If you simply buy shares and wait a couple years you will make money.
March is actually zipping by pretty quickly. Only 7 more trading days until VirTra announces Q2 and has their first cc.
Then only 6 weeks until they announce Q1. It will be interesting if during the Q4 cc they downplay Q1 in any way since it will be a very difficult comparison to last year's Q1.
Also pretty cool that by the time Q4 is announced we will be 25% finished with FY2017. This is a big year in the history of the company since revenue will exceed $20mil. Once a company gets past $20mil, the next decades (30/40/50/60) fall pretty fast.
As long as the company continues their 20% YOY growth in revenue and earnings, we will all be well rewarded for buying/holding from this level.
I hope you guys do understand that if 50 people own their VTSI shares in Fidelity accounts that that counts as 1 single shareholder.
There are likely several thousand individuals that own VTSI shares.
In my household alone, there are 4 different VTSI shareholders. Me, Wife, kids. We all have our own separate brokerage account.
I hope you guys do understand that if 50 people own their VTSI shares in Fidelity accounts that that counts as 1 single shareholder.
There are likely several thousand individuals that own VTSI shares.
In my household alone, there are 4 different VTSI shareholders. Me, Wife, kids. We all have our own separate brokerage account.
Just for kicks I googled the number of publicly traded companies in the USA....apparently there are about 5000 or so real/legit companies and then another 10,000 or so others that trade but perhaps they are only "paper" or smaller than small.
Bill, This is the whole problem with emails, letters, written responses. It is difficult/impossible to determine one's "mood" or "intent" or "attitude." I thought my reply would be read in the light hearted and friendly manner in which it was intended. That is why I started with the wrinkled bill joke. I sorta thought that was clever from several different angles.
Perhaps I also should not have posted that as a reply to you since all the other stuff I added was for the benefit of other readers who might happen by this board.
Again, sorry about that.
Good grief Bill. I could give you $5mil cash and you would complain because a few of the bills were wrinkled.
VirTra is simply being consistent with prior years and releasing on the last day of the month. Furthermore, they are releasing the numbers pre-market and having the cc during the day when the market is open - same as a ton of companies do. And they are answering questions, which is step up - way up, verses what many companies do. They also have preannounced the day and times. Another big step in the right direction.
You could worry Bill if they had not preannounced the day/time, if they were not having a cc, if they were not answering questions, if they were announcing at 10pm on a Friday night.
There is certainly some truth to your post Inoviorulez. I am a rather pigheaded stubborn investor. I do occasionally use these boards to toss something "out there" to see what others come back with in terms of views and opinions.
The one thing I did decide to do about 10 years ago is to believe EVERYTHING every CEO/COO/CFO writes in a PR and states in a cc. In general this has served me very well though this did fail me with two of the coal companies and also EK. I would say that several statements they made were well beyond questionable. It seems to me small company CEOs are more honest than big company CEOs. Sort of weird.
With respect to various posters, it really matters very little to me what anyone says about VirTra or any other company as long as it is clear to me whether they own the stock or do not own the stock of that company.
With you Bill, and Gregg, and Ruffie, and me, and most others on this message board it is crystal clear we own shares of VTSI. The same cannot be said about Twister. Sometimes Twister seems to imply he owns some shares, other times the content of his posts would lead one to conclude that he is not an owner.
Again, it is a mostly free world and each of us can post what we wish, but motives do matter.
If you would like better comparisons to VTSI: NAII, KTCC, CNAT.
In each case, like VTSI, the companies are performing well. Some, like NAII are performing extremely well.
NAII has gone from 14 to 8.7.
KTCC has gone from 8.3 to 7.
CNAT has gone from 6.3 to 4.2
I could list several hundred more if you like.
At the shareholder meeting, Ferris said "CC". That is EXACTLY what they are doing.
He NEVER SAID they would have a "CC with Q&A". Most small companies DO NOT answer any questions during their CCs.
Ferris is doing MORE than he promised last Sept by having this CC AND answering submitted shareholder questions. Even great big well known companies that have CCs WITH a Q&A DO NOT take shareholder questions.
I am very happy with this! Very!
Oh for goodness sakes Bill. Whether you call it a Conference Call or a Live WebCast, it is the exact same thing. Either way, you and I are listening to it as it happens, live real time. They will even be answering shareholder questions submitted in advance of the meeting. This is no different than about 1475 other companies that do the exact same thing.
Just be happy they issued a PR to announce the day and time of the release. That is progress as well.
Sure, it would have been nice to take live analyst questions, but guess what, there is no analyst coverage so this is about the best that could be done. I suspect over the next year this will evolve to where analysts can call in.
Two encouraging days in row. No one hit the now 18k shares on the bid at 2.15 and the person with 10k at the ask at 2.20 held firm.
Also nice that the 25k bidder (now 18k) went up from 2.11 yesterday to 2.15 today.
Yes, that would seem likely as well.
I think there has been more than one seller. The big disciplined one does seem to be gone but there are still others doing some selling and playing some nickel/dime games along the way. Like yesterday they would move around their Ask price a bit by a few cents in either direction. And pull it and replace it. All really stupid stuff for pennies.
I agree with you. If I were selling, every time I would see a sizable bid I would hit it.
It's been awhile since we've had a bid of almost 25,000 shares. Nice to see.
It would appear that at least one seller finally ran out of shares. About time.
Another way to ponder this sort of stock decline. I personally believe it is due entirely to one single shareholder. Can this be possible? Sure. I think of it in my own terms, what if I wanted out and needed to be out several months from now, how would I do it?
I have several hundred thousand shares, daily volume is 8,000. What do I do? I would become disciplined and watch for bids to fill and then promise myself to sell 25,000 shares each and every week - no matter what. What would this do to the stock price? We all know since that is how the stock chart looks over the last 3+ months.
One person + wants out + maybe has some sort of deadline = VTSI trailing chart for last several months
Sort of simple.
These are just my opinions:
I disagree with your premise that the company has been "quiet". There have been all sorts of VirTra-driven articles and videos and news reports. They have attended large shows and been active in those venues. All in the last month. What there hasn't been is any formal press releases for the last month+ even though there have opportunities to do so to showcase new product lines and capabilities. I do not believe this has anything to do with becoming an SEC compliant company.
$40mil contract is still alive and well and any pause due to the change in administrations is likely nearing an end. Long term this slight pause makes no difference since it simply pushes revenues to later in the 5 year period when the contract applies.
I really think people here are over-reacting and reading things into the stock decline that simply are not there. If VTSI had gone from $3 to $2 on avg daily volume of 1% outstanding (151,000shares per day) then I would be worried. But it has done so on volume of roughly 7,000 shares per day so who cares.
A Q4 report in late March that has a revenue number anywhere above $4mil and net income anywhere above $400k and the stock will recover nicely. My best guess is they will report numbers considerably better.
I don't know how many other stocks you follow but I follow several hundred with most of them small companies. It is a very viscious uneven market. There are many spectacularly good buys out there with stock prices that do not make any sense at all (look at NAII numbers for example)so from that context $2 for VTSI which is a PS of roughly 2 and PE in the low teens isn't all that bad. Good to be home, I will buy a few more VTSI shares this week (along with CNAT and PNNT).
I've been quiet for a couple days simply because I was at a waterpark resort with the kids and just returned home this evening. I was checking quotes and watching the trading though.
Here is what I do know for a fact. I have not sold any shares. I also did not buy any in the last 3 days. Those are about the only things I know for sure.
Here is what I think I know. It seems unlikely that the company has bought back any shares yet using their authorized buyback. There is obviously a seller that owns/owned a pretty decent number of shares and they want out. Obvious lack of buyers but given the way the chart looks over the last few months it is not surprising. The logic now is "why buy today when it will be cheaper tomorrow."
At $2 the enterprise value is now roughly $26million. That is anywhere from 0% to 30% more than what revenue will be in 2017. A decent argument can again be made for this being undervalued.
Add up all the volume since the price went below $2.30 and it doesn't amount to much so things can change to the upside just as quickly.
NB, You do realize the stock price is about the same today as it was on the day of the reverse split. It was 2.60 then and 2.20 now.
This really has nothing to do with the reverse split. It has everything to do with two consecutive weak quarters. Q1 was spectacular, Q2 and Q3 were very blah. That is why the stock is $2 and not $3. The jury (and buyers) is out until Q4 is announced. If Q4 is blah and no uplifting talk in the Q4 release or Q4 cc, then it is hello 1.80. If Q4 is good and outlook is reasonably optimistic then VTSI trades back up closer to $3.
I put myself into the whining category, not you Bill. As long as Ferris owns 1.6million shares I'm not going to worry too much though since they will most certainly grow into a $5 or $10 stock price. It just doesn't seem necessary to put shareholders through this sort of roller coaster when there is a share buyback approved and ready to use.
I tend to agree with you. BF has done a good job running the company with respect to growing revenue and earnings and a strong balance sheet. Sadly in today's markets, that is not enough. He also needs to pay some attention to the market cap.
It does not do much good to whine or complain on this message board. Better to take it straight to CEO/BOD/IR.
Obviously someone wants out and they are getting out. Sort of surprising it is holding up as well as it has. I wonder if the company is doing some buying?
There has actually been quite of bit of VirTra news over the last month or two, just not in the form of press releases. But you are right, it will be a long month unless someone decides to start buying some shares....or the seller stops selling.