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RFP is still a great long term (couple years) buy and hold. It is trading so far below book value that it is silly. Further, with rising interest rates their pension obligation/shortfall will disappear.
Good points all around staccani and I enjoy all your posts.
Rather incredible that with all the info and "hints" that Mentos has delivered with regard to the start of the last Ph2 trial and when Novartis will sign that the stock still sits in the 5s. It has really been nice to be able to accumulate shares at this price.
And "hint" is not the right word above. He didn't just hint, he told everyone point blank in writing (slide 23).
During the Dec cc, he strongly implied this. However, the FACT they just put it in writing near the top of slide 23 is significant. If investors had a brain, CNAT would have tripled in the last 30 minutes.
I agree with your point about Bret Jensen but disagree with your more general statement about pros trading biotech see announcements as a way to make money shorting.....at least with respect to CNAT.
Since Dec19, Longs in CNAT stock have made many millions more than Shorts in CNAT stock. Furthermore, while short interest doubled in CNAT immediately after the announcement, it got cut back in half between late Dec and Jan 13th and now stands at an insignificant number well below 1mil shares.
What I have seen with CNAT since the announcement is the initial strong Buy reaction. That was followed by the very well orchestrated walkdown from 5.5 to 4.1 on very low (relative) volume and inconsequential small (but very timely)trades.
I have also learned that very few pros and very few retail stock pickers (like me) do a good job of valuing risk and reward. I have also learned that the vast majority of pros and retailers are very stupid (not a new lesson).
Based on the press release, SEC filings, and the Conf call, CNAT should obviously be trading in the $8 to $10 range right now and about $15 to $18 when Novartis signs. And it will.
Sure, it IS obvious to you and to me and to biotech and others here. However, it obviously is not obvious to Wall Street or investors-at-large. The only thing priced into the stock is the $50mil. It is insane for CNAT to be at $4.30 today when only a year or two ago it was $6 when there was a ton more risk, years away from commercialization, no Ph2 even started, no big partner like Novartis, etc.
Even compared to $1.90 in early December, the stock is far cheaper today at $4.30 given all that is now known.
So the question is....Why haven't some very deep pockets jumped on board and bought a big percentage of the company at this current price?
I am relatively certain that if I had the money I could buy 2 or 3% of the company sub-$5. That would be about 800k shares.
The walkdown from $6 over the last several weeks was done very professionally but I still would have thought that 1 or 2 or 5 individual buyers would have bought and bought and bought until CNAT was at about $12 by the start of April. I still think it goes up significantly over the next 2 months and then pops even bigger on the trial start/Novartis signing.
Exactly correct biotech. When is the last time you have seen the promotion of someone from VP to Sn. VP be announced to the world via a press release? Conatus used this as an excuse to state all is well with the deal and it is happening. Crystal clear.
Nothing is "on hold apparently." Probably not too smart to call yourself a fraudulent voter.....although I would argue that every person who voted for Clinton was committing fraud.
Very true. If 5 - 10 of us got together, we probably do own 15% of the company. That is enough to accomplish something. Problem is, it takes someone willing to spend the time and money to assemble the group, agree on what we want to accomplish, and then spend the time/money to do it. It all sounds good, but it takes a leader....and that ain't me.
I am about 100% certain we could get someone installed on the BOD. But then what? And again, who wants to punish themselves enough to lead this sort of effort?
There are not ANY people on this message board that own more than Ferris. He owns roughly 10% of the shares which is about 1.6million. That's the only thing that makes me happy on a day like today - he lost more than me!
I think the high for this message board was JoeLawyer who I think had about 4 or 4.5% which would be maybe 700,000 shares.
Gregg really was a gift last Fall. Now he drops off the face of the Earth. Perhaps Gregg was Ferris or Larry? Whatever.
I am so close to just saying f-it and dumping about 400k shares. I wonder if I could pound it down to 25cents?
A 2000 share market sell order knocks 10% off the market cap. That is indeed pathetic.
I wish we could have Ferris fired. By his actions (or lack thereof) he DOES NOT care about shareholders. I am now 100% in Bill's camp.
How he could go through all the excellent efforts of last Fall (Nev corp, RS, uplist, etc.) and not have a steady stream of buyers lined up to support the stock is beyond me and demonstrates a complete disregard for shareholders. What the hay is he waiting for with the share repurchase? Does he want to screw his own VTSI shareholders out of $1.30 shares just to get a better deal for the company?
He should be demoted to CTO and a real CEO should be installed.
Thank you! Now I get it.
Truly fascinating to me how the market is valuing CNAT right now. It is as if they are simply a savings account or money market fund. Novartis adds $50mil and up goes the value by $2/share which is about equal to the add.
Market places zero value on both the future Novartis "promise" and zero value on the Conatus business.
It really is an unbelievable opportunity for anyone who can think for themselves and do 3rd grade math.
I added more today.
Hi realfast. I am neither a biotech guy nor a doc. Just a guy who tries to buy low and sell much higher.
I assume the Biogen news you posted is potentially beneficial to Conatus in some way? Perhaps sadly by creating more customers?
Please add your two bits to help the uninformed like me. Thanks.
An excellent post, not because of the "relax" sentiment but because of the content and excellent points you made.
With regard to your sentence..."The company didnt go through redomestication, reverse split, and uplist just to cave." I agree with you and at this point it is the only reason I am still holding and adding to my shares.
The company could do several "free" things to benefit everyone and make their own jobs easier:
1. Start nibbling with their share buyback.
2. Insiders could make some open market buys of shares.
3. They could provide a preliminary look at Q4 numbers.
4. They could package the prelim Q4 look with some form of guidance for 2017.
That is my central frustration...I see easy, simple, free, straightforward things management could do right now to benefit shareholders yet they haven't done them.
Yet I still added 5k shares yesterday!
Hi Ruffie, Obviously someone is unwinding/selling their position but it also feels rather strategic to me though I haven't a clue where it could be coming from. Hard to get too upset with it though since the total volume traded on this -30% move is small and the entire move could be reversed/erased in a single strong up day.
The part of it that feels strategic to me is that whoever is selling seems to want the price to go lower by continuing to dribble out shares and to hide shares behind the ask.
I think of it this way. What would I do if I wanted completely out of VTSI and wanted a decent price? Very simple, I would put up for sale ALL my shares at a price ABOVE the market price and would require an ALL or NONE trade. There is value in a large number of shares and people will pay up to get them. I've done it before with other stocks and it works like a charm.
Today, if someone put out an ALL or None Sell order for 300,000 shares at $2.50 I can just about guarantee it would fill this week.
The Packers haven't had a defense all year. This was not a big surprise.
I disagree with you on Miller and the general population of employees in this world. Most employees are average (by definition)and average is pathetic. Over 21 years with big companies I worked on a total of 6 really big projects, interfaced with all levels of management, many engineers, many marketing/sales people, HR, Finance, Accounting, every function. Do you know how many truly exception people I worked with? 9
In general (pun intended) I like his picks. Whenever I hear the mainstream media whining I know he did something right. I pray that he keeps twittering and acting exactly the same as he did during the campaign. I pray that the United State's first Princess becomes the first female President 8 years from now.
I am a stix and stones guy, no words can ever hurt me.
I actually much prefer Rudy Miller to the current IR firm/guy Larry. Miller made some real contributions to the company and laid much of the foundation for 2016's company structuring moves.
The type of examples you listed are typical for most every company. I've been with big multi-billion public companies and $500mil private companies and at each one I could give you an endless list of stupid personnel moves and incompetent people in at least some positions of power.
Bill, I am still extremely happy with Ferris. Since I bought shares in about 2009, he has really only made two minor mis-steps in my book. The first was the Gander Mtn deal/dance, the second was in mid-Nov 2016 when earnings came out during market hours and before the VirTra press release.
Otherwise he has done everything a shareholder could possibly want.
If they deliver a Q4 with $5mil in revenue and $1mil in net income then everything will again be fine for at least 6 months since that would put 2016 revenue at about +25% verses 2015 and it would put 2016 EPS at 21cents. Certainly enough to support a $4 stock price.
If they limp in with another $3mil breakeven quarter then stick a fork in it....and us.
Good post Gregg but I don't understand one of your opinions. I don't understand your statement about "I doubt there will be a slew of earnings calls and news until this process has been completed."
Q4 earnings will likely be announced in late March (which is stupid late if you ask me) and during the shareholder meeting CEO Bob said there would be a conference call at that time and on all subsequent earnings reports. He also said there would be several investor conference presentations in 2017. Is it your opinion that the CEO was not being truthful when he said those things?
With respect to the buyback, if the company does not think VTSI stock is a good investment at $2.50 then neither should anyone else.
Lastly, if the company does not deliver a Q4 that has $5mil in revenue and $1mil in net income and a subsequent Q1 that is also 5/1 then this company and stock are dead. Simple as that. The company made a ton of promises in 2016, they need to deliver.
Good advice Bill. Sort of fun to kill time though. Right now I'm cheering for the seller and hope they drive this right down to 1.50 or so by late February. That would be great timing for me as a couple of my other stocks might be ripe for picking about then so can shift money from them to VTSI at what is becoming a silly price.
Clearly there continues to be an active seller and maybe also some sort of walkdown/manipulation in progress. Pretty easy to do with this sort of volume and lack of any buying interest.
Ruffie, you should whine directly to IR Larry and CEO Bob. I agree with your viewpoint.
With all the shares represented by several individuals on this message board (certainly more than the 10% Ferris owns) perhaps this is the year to band together and go public with our suggestions and remedies? As usual though, the problem is finding someone to grab the bull by the horns and organize the effort in a meaningful way.
You are correct realfast. It would have been nice for Jensen to have said it since he mentioned several other things that were/are far less important.
[As an aside, his bio sure makes it sound like he has failed at a number of jobs/careers. From having your own hedge fund to being an editor of something no one has heard of? Like I said, I don't know him. Perhaps he is a super smart genious who is fun and likeable.]
I do not know who Bret Jensen is, but he sure writes a silly and factually incorrect synopsis. I say factually incorrect because how does one describe the Novartis deal without a mention of the $650mil. Then, how does one say with a seemingly straight face that Conatus is "many quarters from seeing progress on Emricasan."
So, this guys definition of "many quarters" is 4? or 5?. Lots of data will start to be published and presented in first half of 2018.
No one has any patience. At least this Jensen guy told us why he is hoping CNAT doesn't move much anytime soon since he loses his shares when it goes over 7.50.
This message board for CNAT is interesting and perfectly illustrates why CNAT trades the way it does and why most people lose money in the markets.
Look at how all these new posters popped up when the stock popped and since then have completely gone away. They (most, not all) are nothing but flippers looking to make a few pennies. They will never score big because they are incapable of holding for the inevitable 5 baggers and 10 baggers and 50 baggers that the market does produce.
Right now CNAT at $5 is a far better buy with more obvious upside than it was even one month ago at $2 before anyone had a clue about the Novartis deal.
Bill, It might be the fact I am on my second Old Fashioned, but I haven't a clue to what you are talking about. If it is VTSI stock price, then let me say I am more certain than ever that VTSI goes up and way over $5 or $6 this calendar year. Of course, that too could the OF talking.
Seriously though, the numbers and record of growth and forward prospects are simply too compelling for this to spend much time or churn many shares at 2.50. The company is worth far more than the current $35mil enterprise value.
Cheers, and norom a si retsiwt!
-tab
PS: Someone should tell the goofy football player to buy shares. He'd prolly rite a chk for the whole company.
My 2017 estimates for revenue and EPS are simply 20% higher than where 2016 is likely to come in. Cash build is same as previous year.
If I were optimistic, I would have guessed $25mil and 25cents.
Hey Twister. You should write poetry. Your style is almost musical and flowing. Enjoyable to read even though the content is incorrect and misleading.
You should learn to understand the concepts of revenue, earnings, balance sheet, and growth. That is what I am investing in. 20% YOY consistent growth for about a decade now. Trailing EPS of 16cents. Balance sheet with a net $5mil in cash and proven ability to generate +$4mil cash per year.
2017 revenue will be over $20mil.
2017 EPS will be 20cents.
2017 balance sheet will be +$6mil in cash.
2017 shares outstanding will be down to 15.4million
All these numbers simply reflect their proven historical growth rate. Market cap is only $40 mil and enterprise value is $35mil. Way too cheap relative to overall market, relative to peers, and most importantly, relative to growth.
So wax-on poetically. But glance at the facts once in awhile or you may float away.
Scneid, The MR presentation has very explicit and detailed sales goals/expectations. Crystal clear. $5mil in sales per site. Number of sites is also detailed along with when they will open. What more could you want?
Cute? I've sure never been called that before. I'll take it though. Thanks! VirTra is not a leaky ship. All you have to do is look at the quarterly results for the last 3+ years and the subsequent stock reaction to see that. Certainly joe public never saw that 6mil rev and 2.4mil profit Q1 coming.
It just looks to me like someone with a decent sized position has decided to sell out or downsize considerably. And when there is little buying interest, this is what you get. We will know within a year or two whether they were smart or stupid.
But back to the point. VTSI has proven over the last 2 years that the average investor is a fool. You and I have made 4X our money during this time period. Look what the avg investor made....about 10%. Actually probably less.
Again, I challenge you to read all about CNAT and ask yourself if that stock should be at $5 today. CNAT is the most obvious mis-priced stock I have ever run across.
Same thing I've known for about 20 years.....that the vast majority of investors/traders/flippers/hedgemanagers are stupid.
There are just so many examples of stupidity:
NAII is at 12 and not 30.
CNAT is at 5 and not 25.
VTSI is at 2.5 and not 4.
RFP is at 5.7 and not 9.
It is an awesome time to be a stockpicker.
4000 shares sitting for sale at 2.52 and no one wants them. That is sad.
Very nice. Thanks for posting/sharing. Good to see 3 more will open in 2017 and good to see they only need $5mil/year in revenue per site to make money. Last bullet point was a bit scary but nice to see they are thinking/planning.
I think it is simply about personal relationships and information. The company has to reach out to key analysts and provide them with a crystal clear snapshot of the way the company looks today and how it will look in a year or two.
These days there are literally thousands of mutual funds and fund companies and pension plans and money managers. There are all sorts of deep pockets that buy stocks of tiny companies like VirTra. The neat thing with VTSI is that it will only take 2 or 3 buyers to really make a difference.
$1mil even deployed at a $4 share price is 250,000 shares. With VTSI that is 20 days or about 1 month of full volume. But consider it necessarily has to be spread out so as not to violate the % of daily revenue rules and it really is enough to fully support the stock for the better part of a year. But the value of a buyback is more than that. The value is in reducing the total number of outstanding shares and increasing EPS and company market cap. It works beautifully when done correctly.
Ditto for me Joe. I've added a bit over 10,000 shares in the last 3 weeks or so and haven't ever sold any either.
Sort of interesting since volume is so low. Between you, me, and several others on this message board it would appear we are the major buyers. It also suggests the company has yet to purchase even a single share of their $1mil buyback.
For awhile I thought the company was sucking up all that was available below $2.70 but that is obviously not the case. Which I guess is ok, nice to have the ammo waiting.
Packers biggest problem of late is an inability to pressure the opposing quarterback. So if Manning gets time, the Pack loses. If they pressure him then the Pack wins. Everyone beats up on the GB secondary but I think it is their pass rushers that haven't been doing the job. But who knows, will be fun to watch.
Too bad the game wasn't yesterday, high temp was -5F (actual, not windchill). Today will break above zero for first time in about 3 days. Tomorrow will be about 10F above in GB. At this moment it is -17F actual temp! Yesterday am at sunrise it hit -22F as I was driving to Wausau. It isn't all bad though as the sun is always out when it is this cold. Not a cloud in the sky!
What about JoeLawyer guy? Lots of suspects, we should pen a book.
It (conf calls) was stated clearly by Ferris during the Q&A portion of the shareholder meeting. First one will be with the Q4 report.
Bill, You are wrong about what Ferris knows or can do with the info at his fingertips. They most certainly do have an annual budget. I guarantee every active job/bid/quote known to VirTra is on a spreadsheet with status and all pertinent details tracked daily. He knows the pipeline, he knows the hit rate for jobs/orders. He knows the worldwide market and every single installation of this sort along with age of equipment and status of upgrades.
And by the way, you don't need a Controller for any of this stuff. All you need is a young, smart, hardworking engineer from any Big Ten (or equivalent) school. They have those people today and I would bet my left wingnut that one is deployed to do just what I described. The workload would be about 30% of his/her job.
All good points Schneidku40.
I am not asking for VirTra to share all the details of their 5 year plan. I do want to know they have one. I do want to know some general goals and direction.
But mostly I want them to tell us what to expect for 2017 revenue and EPS. It doesn't have to be exact precise numbers. It can be as simple as "we expect FY2017 to show significant revenue and EPS growth over 2016" or "2017 will continue the historical 20% YOY growth that VirTra has delivered for the last decade" or "we will deliver revenue in the range of 20-25million with net income that is 10 - 20% of revenue".
Remember, Ferris is going to start doing conf calls in conjunction with each earnings report this year. If you think he can get through those without supplying forward statements you are mistaken. He will also need to answer extremely pointed questions in the investor presentation circuit he talked about in the shareholder meeting.
Some of the need for what I am asking will go away IF they can get 2 or 3 good analysts to cover the stock.