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looks like high tick at close yesterday worked as a sell signal.
We still may rally into end of the week, but more likely we sell off 3% into friday.
Holding my shorts for now
Correction: Final tick of 995
BTW, final tick of 981 is high enough to trigger a sell signal.
Bulls beware short term.
Fact:With todays slightly higher high print interday, this rally is now the 10th highest in percentage points (if you do not include the 4 brief rallies in 2008 that only last days) in the past 20 years without a 5% correction, and the 4th longest in terms of days in the past 20 years without the 5% correction.
Does that mean it cant go on much longer? Of course not, but it does put the length and percentage gain in perspective, when the economy is not doing well.
My uncle, economics professor emeritus, sold his mutual funds yesterday.
He bought them in march 2009, partialy on my recomendation. he had sold all of his mutual funds in Oct 2007, after buying in april 2003 (wanted to buy in March, but waited for the war to end)
he says the economy is going down the toilet in 6 months, big time.Says the fed is not going to save the day, only making the banks richer, not the economy.
I doubled up on my qid at 24.5 this morning
high tick at close, not high enough to trigger a short in afterhours, but looking very close to a top.
Am adding to my short at 1597, and even more near the close if we keep going up.
Finally getting some numbers in options that support the top theory, and MMM and GS not doing so great, same for GE, all predicting this rally is not for real.
But then the fed is still printing, printing, printing.
Yes, am happy to be short, only think better I was more heavily short. Will short more tomorrow.Amzn was up, and now down afterhours, like the market tomorrow?
Not a good day to sleep in until 12:30, but it was worth it. Love is even more illogical in the short run than the stock market, but like markets, eventually fundamentals win out.
Wish my luck with my love life, have started a new upmove for now.
Am so close to a sell. If we go up on friday, which is likely, then we get a 5 day trin sell signal, and an overbought on the spx signal.
NOt sure how high we go, 1590 to 1605 is the possible high tomorrow.
Beware the full moon, it actually has some influence on how people invest, though not as much as some would think, but more than nothing at all.
BTW, full moon madness tonight, another reason today or friday could be an important top
spx at 1600 tomorrow? Am going to short more tomorrow, not at the close today. If we tank, at least am short some.
Also sold covered calls on my gld, hope gld goes sideways the next 3 weeks. If it rallies big time, am not so smart. If it collapses then at least covered some of the loss.
Made a lot selling covered calls on gld last year. Covered calls are best on stocks going sideways, or slowly up or down. Rapid up or down, covered calls are dumb.
Am happy to see gld rallying so strongly, but still think another retest of recent lows is a sure thing later this spring or summer.
Had orders to buy qid, 25% of my money, at 25, and it was filled. Thinking of buying more near the close.Still have another couple days of possible positive action, so not going 100% short yet.
I spent the night with the love of my life for the first time in a month (she was unsure, is sure again about us), she kept me in bed this morning, poor me.Is why am up so late. I recomend anyone reading this to sleep in whenever you can with the one you love.
NO idea on how to post charts. would love to put my excel chart on here, but am sure that one is not possible, as the values are based on a spreadsheet not online.
Sorry
Resistance from 140 to 150 on gld. Think we at least see another retest of recent lows, down to even 130, before we can say this correction is over. Still think we see 120 later this year when the bear bites equities.
Will short when daily gets overbought, which is close, very close.
As in, more money to be made in the next month shorting, is my best plan, why better to not be buying anything, even appl, as in a downtrend, owning stocks can hurt.
can not believe am not shorting right now, but agree it looks like the rally still has legs, up to 1590? Higher?
Pissed did not buy appl in the before hours at 392.5. Knew it would rally today.
Pattern is still bullish short term.
Now appl is pulling back big time in afterhours, and qid is up.
I will still short near open tomorrow, and i bet is gap up.
It will go up to 430 tomorrow at the open, maybe, but that could be all it gets.
Stock is not a bargain or a sell. If we were in a bull market, time to buy, but as we are about to enter a bear market, it will outperform for awhile, but not for long.
We could power to 1620, but I think 1590 is all we get tomorrow before the decline starts, but have been wrong before!
So far, so good for a gap up open tomorrow.
Been watching afterhours trading for years, jsut because appl is rallying now, does not mean it will keep rallying, or even open up tomorrow.
but looking good so far. I have dodged so many bullets shorting this market the past couple months, almost went heavily short today, but not yet.
spx 1590 to 1600 for the short, although 1590 is all I expect
I gave up on uvxy, is more like an option than a stock, good luck with it.
I am shorting tomorrow, if we go up into the opening. If we gap down, then might sit and wait to see, although a down open says we keep going down all day, but a gap up could be the high for the day.
Never be in a hurry to get into a trade, there is always another trade coming soon. Not saying you are wrong, but I have lost too much money forcing trades.
btw, qid is out of whack with price of qqq, which is up 1%, qld is up 2%, qid down 1.7%
all in a day, if was still long qid it would be down 2%.
Nothing ever works the way we plan.
Yep, top band at 1590 wants to be filled, so appl does ok in afterhours, and we rally in the morning, then short?
That is my plan, hope it works! Not buying appl, but should have not sold it yesterday either.
have a plan and stick to it makes me money.
false news can move things fast, which is crazy.
Still looks like up to me, but shorting more near the close. Hope we rally into close, will make it easier.
not too much short, as who knows what appl will do.
cb easing will stop working at some point, when is the big question, as it will not help the economy that much, although is keeping us out of a depression for now.
I am not genius, just lucky this time.
Market is going to be more volatile, so best to put in orders unless you are watching every minute.
Not sure what happened, but spx is above where it was before.
Still looking to short later.
That was weird, market fell hard and fast, and coming back again. News?
Had order to sell my qid at 25.6, and so am out again. Looking to get back in short near the close, if we rally, if not then blew the big short top.
CFNAI numbers came out, and they are turning negative, but not yet in recession mode. Weekly LEI turned down a month ago, but the market can keep going up anyway for awhile.
economy rolling over, but investors think the central banks will save the day, lets hope they do, as it will be nasty for most people if they fail.
21, 50, and 200 dma are all in synch and going up. bullish
vix 21dma is moving up, bearish, but can be bearish for weeks before market tops.
sentiment on options still bullish, in that it is bearish.
snetiment on longer term indicators was super bearish, as was to complacent, but has dropped back to neutral.
bulls still in command, but for how long?
btw, almost a sure thing we drop back to 1575 later today, but that is such small change, not worth playing, but worth considering when you want to buy or sell.
I suspect rally into close, as market now thinking appl can not be worse than people think, and it will rally big time afterhours. that is a dangerous thought.
Am checking numbers, but just put 10% of my money into qid at 25.22
I think 50-50 is topping at 1579.5, and also likely we run to 1600, so not shorting heavily yet.
It was an easy call to go long last week, not such an easy call when to short. Full moon tomorrow night, could make things interesting.
BTW, dumped my aapl today again for a small gain, been a nice trading vehicle to go long the past week.
My gut says appl runs to 1420 or higher this week, setting up the short in the market, but also could fall on earnings, setting up the double bottom, and i dont like to be in the way of that kind of possible outcome.
again, my system says higher prices next couple days, but I have seen this form a double bottom more times than a straight up rally, so not betting so close to a top on the upside.
A top is coming in the next couple weeks, if not the next couple days.
1580 to 1620, will start shorting at 1580 if all fits.
Some strange sentiment numbers, but could be fear rising, which actually precedes a major decline, like fear going away often happens just before a big more up.
Also remember, a lot of fear when a decline starts is bearish, same for no fear when a rally starts, if either is only for a day or so. If for weeks one end, then the move is not real.
So far, this short term rally looks like it has legs, although a drop back to 1540 in the next couple days would fit a rally into early may time frame better, like set up a double bottom short term, and then rally up to new highs to suck in all the dumb bulls.
Not saying is written in stone, but my best guess for a top this week is 1580 on spx. Will start shorting then, unless am getting some solid reason not too.
good luck trading.
GEtting typical topping action, but still see 1575 or higher before the next correction.
Am gone all weekend, why no posts. Thank to all that post.
Full moon wednesday night, top? Bottom? Means nothing in a strong trend, but we are no longer in a strong trend.
Top by early may, or later this month.
We either form a more solid base next week, then rally up to 1575-1600, or we rally up to 1575 next week and then roll over.
Think the decline will not be a quick move down, but a series of drops, with the buy the dips keeping things from falling apart until eventually news is so bad it goes down hard.
the economy is in big trouble, from govt cutting spending. Dumb and dumber. Make interest rates higher, but spend on programs that create jobs. Current policy only helps the banks.
Is strange, how a company that nobody thought could do wrong, now can do nothing right!
Probably always better to play the qld if wanting to bet on a big tech company, as the best ones will lead the qld higher.
Only, if a big bad bear bites, you want to own a company, not the qld.
So close to a bear, but not yet is my opinion, but within a few weeks.
out of aapl at 395, probably going to 420 but have no confidence in my abilities right now.
Aapl will fall to 350 later this year, so was just a trade. I can see the smarter move would have been to just buy qld.
Think we run up to 1575 or higher later this month, but a retest of yesterdays lows is probable next week, will wait to buy again for the retest.
For the record, I put 25% of my money into aapl afterhours at 390.7.
Am not a long term bull or bear on aapl, but it is so oversold, a bounce along with market makes sense.
If was a gambling man, would put money into gdx, about as oversold as you can get.
Here is what I see:
An oversold market still in an uptrend. We can either rally straight back up to 1570, which is a sell signal, or rally for 2 days, retest, then rally to 1570 or more, which is a sell signal.
Or keep falling another couple days, which then means a rally back to 1535 before the big decline sets in. so if we drop to 1500, then start shorting at 1535.
Have watched this for so many years keep repeating the above.
Tops are hard to predict, but once they form a pattern like now, it is easy to know what to do after the next move, be it up or down.
We could have a blow off top to 1620, but is unlikely off this pattern, but nothing ever plays out exactly as planned.