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Ehv, please look at huge total market for photonics ( 53 Billion in 2025). See my message 22786 for a better understanding. Please remain critical, but avoid being cynical.
Today competition is Indium Phosphite, Gallium Arsenite, discrete. Today silicon upcoming. Problem cost and speed. Tomorrow silicon and polymer photonics. Polymer is scalable, low cost, low energy and fast. This is what large customers want. We are in engineering design device phase for 25 Gpbs. Not in research. Once we solve this (soon?) we can decide to look for manufacturing partner. Polymer is compatible with silicon platforms and manufacturing uses existing process. LWLG is testing prototype imo.
Ehv, let me give it a try ( source Lebby)
First your question on 10Gbps No growth, competition, no margins.
Market forecasts in Billion of Dollars for Data centers( approximation):
2017 ---- 2025
10GE 0,5 B ---- 0,5 B
40GE 0,1 B ---- 0,3 B
100 GE 1,6 B ---- 4,5 B
400 GE 0,0 B ---- 0,9 B
Obvious the sweet pot is 100 Gbps ( still 5 times bigger than 400 Gbps by 2025).
Time to market: Once design for polymer photonics modulator engine is ready for 25 Gbps, manufacturing partnering with existing box manufacturing companies seems not that difficult and can be done fast. Please be aware that this is market value, not volume.
Proto, Please realize that the 100 Gpbs market is the fastest growing market for the moment and that this market will still be 5 times bigger than the 400 Gpbs in 2025.
Of course there are many other potential applications/ markets for PIC technologies outside datacom and telecom. Think medical, spectroscopy etc
What I forgot to mention is that with this market information and LWLG's focus and potential market-share it is possible to improve value assessments for this company. One thing is for sure it is higher than 300 million.
Pieces of presentation in Belgium. Info to complement Walters message
My conclusion: we are close. We have a winning technology, our development and market focus is correct, we are getting world class engineers aboard and we have a world class photonics enegineering leadership ( Lebby, Leonberger).
Here the market side.
Market information on Photonics: Important message PIC technology based on 100 GE to reach $4.5 B in 2025, 400 GE to reach 0,9B by 2025.
1. Photonic components market $23B in 2017
. forecast to grow to 53 B by 2025
. includes discrete and PIC components
2. WAN, access, and data photonics components to reach $15B, $2.8B, $5.3B
in 2017
. WAN forecast $37B by 2025 with 24% CAGR (20-25)
. Data forecast $12.1B by 2025 or 22% CAGR (20-25)
3. PIC based technologies expected $5.7B in 2017
. Forecast $36B by 2025 or 14% CAGR (20-25)
. PIC includes InP, GaAs, other
. Sip, Polymer to reach 68% by 2025
4. Photonic transceivers 13.3 B in 2017
. WAn client side TxRx to 15.2 B in 2025, 14% CAGR (20-25)
. Strong growth in DWDM and Ethernet datacom TxRx
5. PIC transceiver forecast
. PIC based TxRx to reach $ 3.8B in 2017
. PIC based technologies to lead by 2020
. PIC transceiver driven by WAN client,Ehernet and DWDM markets
driven by high performance 100 Gbps and 400 Gpbs based TxRx
technologies
6. PIC enabling Ethernet Tx Rx by 2025 : 100 Gbps $ 4,5 B
400 Gbps $ 0,9 B
Lebby showed a slide with an overview of ( competitive) technologies available to everyone, to some and showed what was not available and what was unique to polymer photonics. From this it transpires that LWLG will have the capability to get to a 400 Gbps lower cost modulator engine. Cost scalable to DC metrics( 1$/Gbps), long term reliability, non hermetic packaging for 400 Gbps, possibility to integrate modulator onto silicon or InP platform for Mux/Demuxand spot seize converters.
GP, your Aaoi is in the passive fiber business and not in photonics. It's market value development is by all means spectacular. Can you imagine what LWLG's valuation could be with photonics? Patience is the key requirement for investors in development and start ups and the rewards will surely come as in the case of Aaoi.
Thank PM.Very encouraging message from Mr.Trump. I am expecting more specific state support soon. JMO.
Any news from Trump's meeting on infrastructural projects with the state governors?
Exactly. Means mgt can focus on important issues and not run out of cash.
Exactly. Means mgt can focus on important issues and not run out of cash.
Current funding- cash from PP, Lind and loan from MS- seems enough to keep NB operational for next 12 months Imo. Means big financing can be pursued in relatively stable financial circumstances.
It means Lind is prepared to put more of their money in Niocorp. They would not do this without proper due diligence. See it as another sign of confidence.
It means Lind is prepared to put more of their money in Niocorp. They would not do this without proper due diligence. See it as another sign of confidence.
What a vote of confidence. 4 million extra funding at current sharepricing. PP participation 100.000 or more? No traders but real investors. Nice floor,from here up. Waiting for a small explosion in next 6 weeks.
Lebby will be in Antwerp early March for an update to European LWLG shareholders like last year. Looking forward to hear where LWLG stands by than. Steve, also understand he is hired to help Photondelta to work out future photonics roadmap.
Lebby will be in Antwerp early March for an update to European LWLG shareholders like last year. Looking forward to hear where LWLG stands by than. Steve, also understand he is hired to help Photondelta to work out future photonics roadmap.
Lebby will be in Antwerp early March for an update to European LWLG shareholders like last year. Looking forward to hear where LWLG stands by than. Steve, also understand he is hired to help Photondelta to work out future photonics roadmap.
Yes, Lebby should give himself the award, if possible. lol.
This is a public forum, maybe there are legal restrictions, maybe there are conflicts of interests. Maybe he will need to adapt his story at the latest moment. Who know's. My message, let's not speculate. My hope is we have news before the conference in March.
I am sure het does not have to repeat last years presentation. Maybe we will have something to show before the conference. Pls understand that this is mainly a R@D conference. Maybe a chairman needs to show some objectivy. Donot read too much in this without substantiation.The introduction to the conference mentions Polymer Photonics.
sorry I meant money, we Will not be able to stop smart money from moving in.
I hope two things happen. One, I hope that smart money Will move in and that LWLG Will try to Stay three to four steps ahead of the market in achievements in order to fend off speculators and shorts. Seeing Lebby as a spider in the Middle of the Web is a key success factor. We Will see soon how this workshop out. The world starts noticing.
Guys....if you ever wanted in, this is the moment. We have now cash to move on ( no PP apparently ? ) , a robust feasibility coming and a CEO who puts his money where his mouth is. Mining history and development shows this moment in time - between now and the outcome of the feasibility- is the lowest PPS point in the cycle between the material discovery and the construction of the mine. The probability of success is moving beyond 50%.
Steve, the fact that Lebby has been asked to draw up a strategic photonics plan until 2035 in Europe is proof of his capabilities as a renown global expert on photonics. He is seen by research, technology and industry as an trusted expert and opinion leader. I love the constant appearance of polymer photonics as an scaleable, energy efficient and cheap alternative next to silicon. Lightwave is well positioned. We will see fireworks this year.
After the presentation camera kept rolling ...saw lots of participants crammed around Jim to talk to him. When Jim had left and the microphone still open heard host (Murdock) saying " what a fabulous presentation".
Many questions from the audience. Cash and financing topics. FSB ready 'shortly'.
Militairy Technologies article on LWLG recent achievement:
http://military-technologies.net/2017/01/02/lightwave-logic-inc-lwlg-otcqb-lightwave-logic-achieves-high-speed-modulation-in-its-first-ever-all-organic-polymer-ridge-waveguide-modulator-prototype/
(Great Pumpkin)² = strong buy recommendation.
Really excellent news. Not 2.5 Gbps but 10 Gbps.Wowww...This puts polymer photonics on the map as a serious contender in the field of photonics.
By The way, the more messages you see from the the'Great Pumpkin ' the more you can rest assured it is great news indeed.Expect a shareholder update soon.
We must be very close to lift off
judging the increase in negative comments and the number of 'new comers' on this board. I am sure we will see fantastic news before month end. Mark my words.
You might be right. If so and with expectations clearly for the end of this year, some folks will probably be disappointed, although the January-February time-frame will not change the potential of this investment one bit.
You are correct.I was taken aback by the 'meagre' valuation.
I guess for company valuation it matters.
Article does not even mention scandium and titanium.
Guys, I have been told by a very reliable and esteemed source..."before the end of this year" with the added reassurance that if they would run into difficulties they would let us know well beforehand. It seems to me we will hear something soon. First 10K and than ???
Today I attended a presentation by Prof.Tom Bacx at the High Tech Campus in Eindhoven, the Netherlands. Eindhoven is still a global centre of microelectronics with companies like ASML, Philips, NXP ( Qualcomm) to name a few and a brainport for many other innovative start ups in data communication, health care, watermanagement etc. Eindhoven housed Philips Electronics which gave birth to the optical laser and the long distance multifiber cables which today connect the world. Philips was experimenting with single fibers for short distance from 0 to 800 nanometers in the seventies but gave up on this idea completely because there was no need and there was more money to be made in optical multifiber for long distance and micro electronics.
Eindhoven anno 2016 wants to become the global centre of photonic (chip) integration with a focus on data and communication, healtcare, environment (the internet of things). They have a strong cooperation between public and private entities ( European funding) in photonic technology, photonic materials, photonic chip production processes. Bacx lecture was comparable to Lebby's in terms of the urgent need for a solution. At current speed of 1.8 multiplier per year data transfer ( now 5%) will consume all available energy power by 2025 etc etc, Solution for up to 100.000 photonic devices on a chip ? Lithium Niobate, Indium Phosphite, Silicon, Polymers as active material on chip. Nice to see a slide with a heterogeneous chip with polymer fiber as binding. Nice to hear Baxc works closely with Lebby, nice to get confirmation that polymers might be just the thing with required density options, scaleabilty, non distortion, and low voltage. Got confirmation we are in the right company. Cheers
Wise,if I may, there is a distinct difference between an innovation
(Google, Face Book) and an invention. An innovation uses existing technology an invention creates completely new technology.
If anybody wants to panic, please do. Tomorrow there will be something new to panic about. As to derivates, as my professor told me last year, even after 2008, the total value of derivates in 2014/2015 is almost 20 times the value of all global equities and bonds together. Last count was about 1800 trillion dollars. Just that you understand that we are all in this and trust in the system is what keeps it from falling apart. I guess Deutsche Bank is just one of the many fishes in this ocean.
Good luck to all and especially my fellow longs in Niocorp.
Thought I share this letter from CEO Deutsche Bank to employees.
Dear Colleagues,
You will have seen speculation in the media that a few of our hedge fund clients have reduced some activities with us. That is causing unjustified concerns. We should consider this in the context of the bigger picture: Deutsche Bank overall has more than 20 million clients.
I understand if you feel concerned by the extensive coverage on this issue. Our bank has become subject to speculation. Ongoing rumors are causing significant swings in our stock price.
It is our task now to prevent distorted perception from further interrupting our daily business. Trust is the foundation of banking. Some forces in the markets are currently trying to damage this trust.
Deutsche Bank has strong fundamentals. Let me mention some of the most important facts at this point:
1. We fulfill all current capital requirements and our restructuring is well on track. We completed the disposal of the British insurer Abbey Life this week and the sale of our stake in the Chinese Hua Xia Bank will be finalized soon. This will further improve our capital ratio.
2. We have significantly decreased our market and credit risk in recent years. At no point in the last two decades has the balance sheet of Deutsche Bank been as stable as it is today.
3. Despite low interest rates and a difficult environment we posted a pre-tax profit of about 1 billion euros in the first half of 2016. Before extraordinary items like restructuring costs, we earned about 1.7 billion euros. This demonstrates the operating strength of Deutsche Bank.
4. In a situation like this, the most important factor is our liquidity reserves. Currently they still amount to more than 215 billion euros. This is an extremely comfortable buffer. This is clear proof of how conservatively we have planned. This is acknowledged by numerous banking analysts.
There is therefore no basis for this speculation. Nor can uncertainty about the outcome of our litigation cases in the US explain this pressure on our stock price, if we take the settlements of our peers as a benchmark.
You have all done a tremendous job over the past few days. You are the ones who are in constant contact with our clients and making it clear how Deutsche Bank is really doing. You are Deutsche Bank – that is impressively clear. All of us in the Management Board highly appreciate it.
You will hear back from me soon. Please keep working as you have been doing so far. We are and we remain a strong Deutsche Bank.
Yours sincerely,
John Cryan
Deutsche Bank under pressure Deutsche Bank under pressure
3 Hours Ago | 01:40
Spriha Srivastava
Lead Blog Writer, CNBC
I am sure IR Anglo American would not like to comment on your hypothesis. Hope you will excuse me for not asking.
Thanks again Jim for not letting this I-board discussion go 'wild'. Thanks for providing us verifiable information from the source.