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Wow Ruffie, sort of neat from my perspective to learn that you are a HTBX shareholder! I definitely value your opinion on it. I am sort of clueless about these little drug development companies but I like how they can move around for no apparent reasons and then jump up or down on seemingly meaningless news/updates. I also do a decent job of trading them without emotion because I neither care about them or trust them. Weird, eh.
What do you mean by off the shelf business model?
Hi Joe, You got exactly to the heart of the issue with your post. I expect Q3 and Q4 to come in as the company stated in their press release. I own some shares now but sold over half in the 10s/11s/12s. I will probably add more before the Q3 report and then more after the Q3 report. I really don't have a good feel for how the stock will react. Based on the financials it is so undervalued as to be silly.
Good discussion over on the Investor Village message board. It is free. Hopeful is an awesome person and poster. A retired accounting professor.
I just cannot understand how anyone could day trade or short-term trade or even swing trade a stock like VTSI where volume is so low and the spread so large. Seems impossible to me but I'm sure you are right that some out there do do it.
There are so many other stocks where it is easy to do that sort of thing. My favorites are ones like BAC and BP. Tons of volume and fairly well behaved yet do move around enough.
CNAT - Congrats on your profits. I feel sort of stupid that I didn't buy some call contracts although I still might. I do own a ton (for me) of shares and mess around trading a small number of them to get my "trading fix." This week was spectacular, bought some shares late day on Monday or Tuesday at 6.02 and sold those today at 7.21. But again, it is more for entertainment than anything else as I still have a ton of shares in the 1.55 to 1.75 range and will hold most of those until $20 later this year....I hope. Then some I will hold forever just in case they really do have a drug that works and gets approved and generates revenue.
The other one I really like (and own some) is NAII. My plan is to buy in heavy when they announce Q3 later this month or early May.
Ruffie, If you are smart enough and savvy enough to actually make money trading in NUGT then you really are ...well - smart and savvy. 99% of the people/funds messing with stuff like NUGT are doing so in order to hedge something and 98% of them fail miserably.
The whole problem with taking out this seller is no one (except the seller) knows how many shares are really for sale. If I new for a FACT that it was only the 8000 or so at the 2.20 ASK I would buy them in a heartbeat. Also, if I knew the seller would not go lower than 2.20 I would also buy a bunch since I would know this is about the best price available.
In June or July we are all going to look back and wonder why we didn't buy more at this price.
I do think Q1 report will be good and certainly stronger than last years Q2/3/4. However, it is unlikely to be as strong as last year's grand salami of a Q1.
The great thing this year is that the Q2, Q3, Q4 comparisons will be easy to beat and 20% YOY growth should be easy for 2017 as well.
If nothing goofy happens, my guess is the stock starts trending upward in late May. And that is only 6 weeks away! I'm with you on continuing to nibble.
A friend of mine who is also a shareholder said something interesting today that I hadn't really thought about but once he said it I certainly agree.
Doesn't it feel like the calm before the (good) storm? It is very quiet yet the company is acting extremely confidently. Uplist to Nasdaq, SEC company, 20% growth and all this in the face of a new administration that is going to pump a ton of money into the military and customs and enforcement.
It simply feels like this thing (VTSI) is going to explode upward for all the right reasons .... and maybe soon. Just a feeling.
Not sure I ever had a day in any stock on any exchange where I accounted for 100% of the volume. I first bought 500 shares in one account and then bought 1600 shares in another. Now both accounts have a nice round number in them.
I was really tempted to just keep buying to see how many shares are really for sale in the 2.20s....but I didn't.
The fact they located the first one where they did was not exactly a bright move. It is likely the Las Vegas one will do much better given the format they have chosen to follow.
A site like Peoria needs $5mil per year in revenue to break even on a cash flow basis and have a small GAAP net loss.
Modern Round is late with their 10k, it was due at the end of March and they filed for an extension. That report will tell us whether or not Oct/Nov/Dec came in at the $1.5 - $1.8mil in revenue that it darn well better have. My guess is it did not and Mod Round is scrambling to find money to fund the next 3 sites. Big struggle it appears to me.
All that said, MR is just noise. VTSI is a buy.
Schneid, If you do not understand the necessity and value in 1/3/5/10 year business plans then you have never either owned a business or run a business or worked for a business.
Every company darn well better have a plan for this week, this month, the next 6 months, this year, next year, and 3 and 5 years out. I spent plenty of years within a $120mil business unit at Honeywell where even the most typical of new product development project took 2 or 3 years to complete and roadmaps went out beyond a decade. Revenue and earnings targets and projections went out about 5 years. And guess what, they were met - ALWAYS. Same thing at Seagate and other places I have worked, both public and private.
Perhaps in your post you were not referring to business plans but instead to analyst projections of revenue and earnings for a company. I would also disagree if that was your position since those too have tremendous value both for the company and the analyst firms and potential investors. Two way street for each party.
There is no way anyone can own a stock without projecting numbers over the next 3 months, 6 months and maybe 1 or 2 years. It all depends on motivations and timeframes and ownership goals.
With VirTra, forward projections are incredibly easy. They have told us point blank to never project one single quarter over others due to lumpiness and instead have told us to look at numbers and performance on a year over year annual basis. They have churned out year after year of increasing revenue and earnings and have guided to continued 20%+ annual growth. It is very easy (and accurate) to project that over the next several years. If you aren't doing this, then you have no business owning this stock or any stock.
Sorry, but I just never read anything as misguided as your previous post.
It was actually the link in guntherfd's post earlier today.
That is about the only part of the deal I do like!
Nice find on the Las Vegas site. That location will generate some big numbers.
Sorry RStevens. My intent was not to jump down your throat. My written words always come across as too harsh, I need to work on that.
You are right with your totals. I'll bet if you shoot that question to IR Larry you will get the answer. Lots of possibilities.
I'm just happy he still owns a big chunk....but not too big a chunk.
That's how fake news gets started. RStevens, please read the footnote near the top of page 31 on the year end report. The 6% number you quoted does NOT include 500,000 shares of common stock held by a custodian for the benefit of Mr. Ferris' children.
It will be interesting to follow that 500,000 number in future reports to see if the kids want to keep owning the stock.
I just think it is someone unwinding a relatively large position. Likely someone who doesn't pay very close attention to what is happening with the company. Perhaps someone who needs the money for something else later this year. Perhaps it is simply Bill who wants to cash out before he cashes out.
What I find silly is that if this seller had even slightly more patience they could get out at 2.50 or 2.60. Just move the ASK to 2.50 and wait. The buyers will come. Instead, this silly seller tends to chase a bit.
None of it really matters with this volume though. I do wish the company would come in and wipe out all the sellers and support it at 2.60 or 2.70 about where it was at the RS.
I would also love to attend and should really just make it a priority and do so. If only they would do it in January or February or even December.
Maybe, maybe not. I just bought another 3k shares and there was nothing for sale between 2.15 and 2.29 so I ended up getting a few of the 2.29 shares.
I think there are now enough eyes on this one that even if it does dip, there isn't going to be any volume behind it and it is likely to rebound quickly. Q1 is complete (though not yet reported) and we know that Q2/3/4 are very likely to be better than 2016. It also seems a pretty safe bet that this is a 20 - 30% grower each year for the next 5 - 10 years. That will mint a bunch of millionaires. All that is required is a bit of patience, perhaps only a couple months.
I finally had a chance to listen to today's cc. Overall it was really good both in content/tone/attitude. Any shareholder or potential shareholder that didn't like it simply doesn't have a clue.
I have listened to hundreds of these over the years and this one was well done.
The only place they got too cute was with using the "as soon as possible" phrase. They should have simply said "we anticipate completion in Q3" or "Q4." (SEC listing). Likewise with the uplist, just tell us the exact exchange and approximate timeframe, they certainly know both right now.
While it would have been nice to hear a 2017 revenue range, they were clearly guiding to 20%+ growth and accelerating growth.
Whoever is selling shares is being very short-sighted. They will regret it in less than a year.
I haven't a clue about the stock price today, but I am certain it will be much higher within 12 months. 20% YOY growth is extremely rare. Some companies can do it for 2 or 3 years in a row but no one can do it for 10 years in a row or 20 or more. It simply does not happen. 20% YOY growth will make shareholders wealthy.
Seems to me 2016 was a foundational year. Big investments in the company. 2017 is set up for another 20% year and 2018 likely even better. Revenue and Earnings comparisons for Q2/3/4 will be super easy. The company can buy some shares starting Tuesday.
I sorta see this treading water at about 2.20 - 2.50 until mid-Summer. Then the rise begins. It is now inevitable. Enjoy.
It (todays share price) doesn't matter.
I would further argue that tomorrow am's Q4 earnings announcement doesn't matter either. Why? Because we already know the gist of it. They will announce (correctly) that 2016 was a record year with roughly 20% growth over 2015 and they are in pristine financial shape with a nice cash pile and no debt.
The announcement earlier this week was more significant since it signals the business continues to grow and that 2017 is likely to be even better than 2016.
All the late day dip today proved was there is still a nervous nellie seller and buyers continue to sit on their wallets.
I am looking forward to the cc tomorrow though I will be off-grid much of the day. The walleyes are running!
This is all likely 1 seller who started with 200k to 500k shares and simply wants out. They should run out of shares soon. Nice opportunity for someone to buy a chunk! I'm tempted....but not tempted enough. sigh
Very true Schneid.
My guess is they will not buy back any shares. If they spend any money, it will be on some niche acquisitions. And I would be 1000% in favor of accretive and smart acquisitions.
Bill, Go ahead and try to buy $1million worth of VTSI stock over the next couple months> Then let me know if you still think it would not impact stock price.
I'm with you on your Modern Round thinking.
I'm also with a few of you who might not believe any boughtback shares will be retired. It is actually more rare than you think for a company to actually retire the shares. PII did it. STX did it. Many do, but many don't.
I do not believe VirTra has boughtback even one share yet.
On Friday we will learn if they boughtback any in Q4.
Hi ztect, I like your questions. Well done. I took a different approach since I hoped others would have some very specific questions.
I submitted a request to Larry a couple weeks ago. I basically asked that Ferris talk a bit about his vision for the company and what the company will look like in 3 years and 5 years. I asked that he talk about long range goals, big picture stuff.
I also made it know that I think Modern Round has already failed. They have not announced a date for site 2. They have a negative book value. Site 1 is not close to the $5mil rev annual run rate necessary to support itself. I think it can be saved with some tweaks to format but will they be smart enough to do it. Not sure this will be addressed.
Good point Cincy but I think that the Q4 announcement is now less important simply because the market is generally forward looking rather than backward looking.
The fact they signed a record dollar amount of contracts in Q1 means that Q3 and Q4 this year (2017) are likely to be really really good.
Also, don't forget they did talk about Q4 indirectly in the Q3 announcement in mid-November when Q4 was half done. They sounded pretty bullish then. If I remember right "continued strong momentum" or similar was mentioned.
Q4 will be at least decent and mean that 2016 was 20% or more above 2015. We now have some clarity about 2017 (better than 2016).
I am just tickled pink that they decided to issue a PR to tell us that all is well. This means they actually do pay attention to stock price.
If you do not like VTSI or are short VTSI or simply do not want VTSI to go up, then the fact the stock went up 20% on no volume should actually terrify you. Sellers are gone. There are not any shares for sale.
Sure, there aren't any buyers either, but that will happen. All the numbers and performance is good enough and enough sizzle in the sector that this will eventually pop big.
Knock me over with a feather. These guys actually are aware of what they are doing to shareholders. This is the first time EVER that they have used the excuse of an order to generate a PR in which to sooth and comfort the investing community!
Maybe there is hope for Ferris?
While the numbers in the PR are nice, I find it far more significant that they went to the trouble to do this - issue the PR to tell us "All is Well."
VirTra has NEVER been a leaky ship with respect to earnings reports, at least since I have been following since early 2009.
Think back just 1 year. The stock initially reacted badly to what some saw as a light Q4. It was actually a really good Q4 and the stock was higher within a few days.
BUT THEN....look at what they announced in mid-May 2016 with Q1. No one saw that coming....$6mil in rev and $2.4mil in net income!
The stock dropped harder the last few days because it went below $2 then some owners start to panic and simply want out before a cap gain becomes a cap loss. It is painful to earn an asset that declines in value day after day after day. But that is exactly when you need to do what Joe did today ----BUY. When it is painful, that is when you buy.
I also have a hard time getting too crazy when the stock could easily be at all time highs by noon on Friday.
What if they announce a quarter like Q1? Stock will be $4 by 10am.
What if they announce a quarter like last Q4? Up we go.
What if they announce a quarter worse than Q3? Likely stuck around $2.
What if they say 2017 is gonna stink? Hello $1.40.
Soon we will know.
Oops, didn't realize volume was 75k shares.....still not many but something.
At this price, the stock is a buy no matter what Q4 looked like. Here are a few random thoughts:
1. I'm irked I was off-grid most of the day and couldn't buy.
2. Enterprise value is now about 23mil, probably close to what 2017 revenue will be. That is way too cheap for a 20% YOY grower that is profitable and debt free.
3. There is not any leak of Q4 results, that is stupid talk.
4. Volume is still about nothing. Even today, insignificant. Until it starts trading 1% or more of outstanding each day, none of this matters. 1% would be 158,000 shares, 4X today's volume!
5. It is childish and immature for Ferris and BOD not to comment on the state of the company during this entire 3 month decline.
6. Q3 was announced on Nov 15, that is half way thru Q4. Go back and read the release. Q4 will be fine based on what was stated in the Q3 release.
7. Mod Round website is under maintenance, hope they post the date of the next opening when it is back online.
8. Larry the IR guy might be a very nice man but it would seem neither he nor Ferris know how to deal with shareholders.
9. If anyone wants to make a run at an alternative slate of directors either this year or next year, count me in. I just don't want to do the work.
Both the company and individual insiders are locked out until 2 trading days after the earnings release. First day they can buy is Tuesday, one week from tomorrow.
Upcoming catalysts:
1. Start of last remaining Ph2 trial. For sure in Q2, likely in April or May.
2. Novartis signing the option. The "trigger" to sign is the start of the last remaining Ph2 trial. "Trigger" is a direct quote from Conatus CEO Mentos.
Then there are many catalysts later in 2017 and throughout 2018. 2017 will have some big milestone payments. 2018 will have even bigger milestone payments based on the trial results as they are announced.
Women...now there is another topic we agree on. I haven't done anything right in the 18 years we've been married, just ask her.
I get chippy when stocks move against me when I see it as preventable.
Given the underlying numbers and forward prospects and track record there is no reason to be putting shareholders through this.
It could have all been prevented easily and without spending a dime of company money. It boils down to communication with investors.
1. BOD and Insiders could have bought some shares late last Fall.
2. Company could comment on share decline.
3. Company could issue forward guidance and give us some idea of how they envision the company to look in 3 years.
There is no excuse to sit with mouth shut as Ferris is doing.
This will probably be rolled into Smith & Wesson at $1.50/share. Criminal.
I generally agree with you Gregg, however....
If Ferris and BOD is unable to attract insti res coverage as an OTC stock, they will also be unable to do it as a Nasdaq stock. Attracting coverage and buyers is not exactly difficult in this day and age. It is very easy IF one WANTs to do it, and I have my doubts.
Acquisitions - Sure, nothing wrong with doing some manageable accretive acquisitions. I hope they do. That said, I would rather see someone buy VirTra so we can end our misery as shareholders. Does Ferris not understand he is risking the entire company by going along with this $2 share price? Someone could buy the company for $2.50 right now. Shareholders would approve it. In 2 weeks, we might be really happy to get $1.50.
The last thing that is clear to me is that Modern Round has failed. Stick a fork in it, they are done. They need $5mil in revenue per site to breakeven and they are not close to that sort of number. They don't even have the funding in hand to open site #2. Ferris should sever all ties right now.
What a clown show.
Ferris and the VirTra BOD actually do have a legal and fiduciary responsibility to do what is in the best interest of shareholders.
Ferris does not understand that it is not enough to deliver 20% YOY revenue and earnings growth. While that is certainly the most important it is not all that is important.
For the company not to comment in any way when their shareholders have had half their money taken away, that in my eyes IS actually close to criminal.
Furthermore, for VirTra to have gone to all the trouble to uplist to the OTC without having buyers lined up is also a clown-like move. Who is that stupid? I really thought last Summer and Fall that Ferris understood that he had to get buyers lined up and ready to support the stock. What a fool I was to think he was shareholder friendly/savvy.
I am not selling yet, but if there isn't improvement within a year I will be gone from the stock.
The company cannot buy back when insiders are locked out. This is a big problem. The company was locked out for the last 2 weeks of Q4 until 2 trading days after Q4 is announced.
Of course, even if they weren't locked out would they be buying?
Even today, volume was nothing. About 25,000 shares. Many of us could sell that many every day for a couple weeks and still have some left.
Problem is no buyers and for that, Ferris and VirTra BOD are at fault.
If the stock stays this low for the next 6 - 9 months then the company needs to be sold.
Enterprise value is $26million. That is a sick joke.
The Badgers will probably give me a heart attack tonight. So I might only have half a day left.