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I agree that the PPS development is not what one would hope for. The financials of the PEA 2 have not changed, in fact the fundamentals of the business seem to have improve based on the many communications from the company and the risk associated with this project is diminishing. Just give it another 4 weeks for the BFS and the financing arrangements to unfold as promised by management. The PPS Will move upward from than on.
I agree that the PPS development is not what one would hope for. The financials of the PEA 2 have not changed, in fact the fundamentals of the business seem to have improve based on the many communications from the company and the risk associated with this project is diminishing. Just give it another 4 weeks for the BFS and the financing arrangements to unfold as promised by management. The PPS Will move upward from than on.
Wagner, no need for panic. Exercising patience requires great will power. I believe that we will see the results on the FS within June and I am anticipating a minimum dilution. Do not forget Mark Smith owns 22 million shares. Keep courage.
Steve, OEM is the original equiment manufacturer. The packaging company is the contract manufacturer for the OEM, in this case LWLG.
I understand from Marcelli we will go to NASDAQ eventually. Still almost 18 million from Lincoln available. No tricks, no reverse splits to qualify for admission to Nasdaq. No dilution beyond Lincoln, no debt, move to Nasdaq will follow an organic process, is what he said during the ASM. I guess this means than when they need money to tap Nasdaq , the share price will be at the appropriate level for admission. Good for us early birds.
We know what we have. Donot need you
to tell us.
Scope, people i know here in Europe are pleased to see shareprice appreciation after a long wait. Some invested before 2010 and some after. Average shareprices range between US$ 0.85 and 1,50. The people I know own together about 1 million shares. With the dollar appreciation over the Euro,from 1,40 to 1,08 , almost everybody is ´in the money´, and certainly in Euro´s. What is more the reason, or emotion if you want way back, to invest in Lightwave is about to become reality. The overriding sentiment now is to wait at least another two years, after waiting for sometimes over 10 years, to see this investment delivering its fullest potential. As to the potential, we believe it is huge and probably completely underestimated by us all. Hope this helps.
Based on communications from the company in the last two years I conclude that the financials in the BFS will be excellent, that debt financing will not be a problem and share dilution will be kept to an absolute minimum. I further believe that the current share float will be maintained for the time being. The share price will be rising after the BFS, based on the current float and the potential PPS. Next the company will raise additional capital on a new exchange. We have reached the lowest share price (USD 0,51)in what is called the orphan period just before the publication of the BFS. If anything this is the time to buy.
Exactly. How do we know Niocorp asked for it ? Maybe it was the other way around!
Price to Mackie looks like a nice gift bonus for services and loyalty. Mackie investment is a sign of confidence. I expect debt financing not to be a problem based on sound BFS financials resulting in an attractive PPS and a move to a bigger exchange. Sure longs in NB will get their 'royal'treatment as well. I see Mackie deal as another positive step in the right direction.
Thanks Steve. Lebby has a very impressing curriculum. Missing a CFO position in executive team. Wonder if necessary at this stage of development.
Prototype 101 message 24075 reports 480k short yesterday. If it is not shorting what causes these significant volume spikes and price fluctuations last three days, what else ? 1 dollar seems to be a brick wall. Any opinion ?
Sorry previous message not meant as answer to Wise. More reaction to message on shorting of almost 1 million shares as of yesterday. I guess the mm should have secured these at lower prices to cover his short 1 million sales to date at higher prices.
At the end of the day existing large holdings of shares need tot be secured to buy back shares to cover shorted positions. Question : Who's holdings are large enough to sell ( at a profit) or to be used as security for an attractive fee rto cover the shorts? I would not play this game without covering my back. Especially given the required legal delivery of shares at t+3.
X, appreciate your contextual summary.
Maybe just wishful thinking on my behalf. Anyway as new CEO I believe his vision for Lightwave should be highly aspirational . Silicon Valley giants as Google and FB could serve as a benchmark.
In mining projects the time before the BFS release generally shows lowest share turnover and PPS because not all retail investors can deal with this situation. Pity, because with every day passing we get closer to release and increasing interest from bigger institutional investors. We expect BFS this quarter,during May/June, or within approx.75 days.
Was IT not Lebby, early last year, who said that after Google and Facebook, Lightwave would be the next big thing in Silicon Valley! I guess these words get more meaning as time passes! I am hyped by the sheer seize of this opportunity.
The complete global photonics intelligence is at the conference. Cannot imagine they did not get Google message. This is a almost dramatic wake up call. Pls Lebby give us our 25 Gbps device.
It seems nobody had a satisfactory solution yet. Not InP or Silicon...Will LWLG offer a scalable, cheap, fast and energy efficient solution? With Lebby at the helm chances might in fact improve and accelerate.
It seems nobody had a satisfactory solution yet. Not InP or Silicon...Will LWLG offer a scalable, cheap, fast and energy efficient solution? With Lebby at the helm chances might in fact improve and accelerate.
It seems nobody had an satisfactory solution yet. Not InP or Silicon...Will LWLG offer a scalable, cheap, fast and energy efficient solution? With Lebby at the helm chances might accelerate.
It seems nobody had an satisfactory solution yet. Not InP or Silicon...Will LWLG offer a scalable, cheap, fast and energy efficient solution? With Lebby at the helm chances might accelerate.
If you listen to Google...They are screaming for a cheap solution for their datacenters yesterday. They are not looking for an incremental optical solution. They are begging the photonics industry to come up with a cheap, energy efficient and faster solution. The ' brick wall" is close. Industry may get nervous. This is a wake up call.
If you listen to Google...They are screaming for a cheap solution for their datacenters yesterday. They are not looking for an incremental optical solution. They are begging the photonics industry to comedy up with a cheap, energy efficient and faster solution. The ' brick wall" is about to arrive.
If you listen to Google...They are screaming for a cheap solution for their datacenters yesterday. They are not looking for an incremental optical solution. They are begging the photonics industry to comedy up with a cheap, energy efficient and faster solution. The ' brick wall" is about to arrive.
Agree completely.
Agree
For all people who want to know hour, day and all BFS details. Here is my opinion!
BFS out before 30 May 2017. Capex less than PEA2, probably between us$ 750 and 800 million maximum. Opex down. NPV 4 billion Us$. Cash 500 million per year.Two OR three big investors/ strategic partners to buy for total of 100 million new shares ( 33% ownership) at pre-agreed pricing. Financing will be announced for 500 million. Marketcap 35% of marketcap at full production at 300 million shares is PPS 35% of 4 billion or US$ 4/5 in June/July 2017.
Bernice, we know.Company communication said BFS this quarter. Check company communication yourself.
Fred Leonberger elected to Board LWLG.
Steve, wowww. Great find.
Thx, X. I did not know this arrangement existed.
I understand that Lebby is really only interested in the science/engineering part. The PPS is of little concern to him. He believes that will come automatically if he delivers. His main purpose is to put polymer photonics on the map and he wants to prove that a working P2IC is within reach. He also believes the sweet pot is 100 Gbps ( 4 times 25 Gbps). The datacom market for PIC technology is 4.5 B in 2025 with silicon and polymer photonics overtaking existing technologies and taking more than 70% of the market between now and 2020. Therefore incumbent technologies will be loosing out fast relatively speaken: you don't want to direct your limited resources here.
By the way if you Google Ignis Optics, you can see that Lebby sold his own company for 15.5 million not so long ago. I don't think it is the money which keeps him going. It is the science which turns him on and which determines his reputation as a world class scientist and opinion leader on photonics.
Ehv, please look at huge total market for photonics ( 53 Billion in 2025). See my message 22786 for a better understanding. Please remain critical, but avoid being cynical.
Today competition is Indium Phosphite, Gallium Arsenite, discrete. Today silicon upcoming. Problem cost and speed. Tomorrow silicon and polymer photonics. Polymer is scalable, low cost, low energy and fast. This is what large customers want. We are in engineering design device phase for 25 Gpbs. Not in research. Once we solve this (soon?) we can decide to look for manufacturing partner. Polymer is compatible with silicon platforms and manufacturing uses existing process. LWLG is testing prototype imo.
Ehv, let me give it a try ( source Lebby)
First your question on 10Gbps No growth, competition, no margins.
Market forecasts in Billion of Dollars for Data centers( approximation):
2017 ---- 2025
10GE 0,5 B ---- 0,5 B
40GE 0,1 B ---- 0,3 B
100 GE 1,6 B ---- 4,5 B
400 GE 0,0 B ---- 0,9 B
Obvious the sweet pot is 100 Gbps ( still 5 times bigger than 400 Gbps by 2025).
Time to market: Once design for polymer photonics modulator engine is ready for 25 Gbps, manufacturing partnering with existing box manufacturing companies seems not that difficult and can be done fast. Please be aware that this is market value, not volume.
Proto, Please realize that the 100 Gpbs market is the fastest growing market for the moment and that this market will still be 5 times bigger than the 400 Gpbs in 2025.
Of course there are many other potential applications/ markets for PIC technologies outside datacom and telecom. Think medical, spectroscopy etc
What I forgot to mention is that with this market information and LWLG's focus and potential market-share it is possible to improve value assessments for this company. One thing is for sure it is higher than 300 million.
Pieces of presentation in Belgium. Info to complement Walters message
My conclusion: we are close. We have a winning technology, our development and market focus is correct, we are getting world class engineers aboard and we have a world class photonics enegineering leadership ( Lebby, Leonberger).
Here the market side.
Market information on Photonics: Important message PIC technology based on 100 GE to reach $4.5 B in 2025, 400 GE to reach 0,9B by 2025.
1. Photonic components market $23B in 2017
. forecast to grow to 53 B by 2025
. includes discrete and PIC components
2. WAN, access, and data photonics components to reach $15B, $2.8B, $5.3B
in 2017
. WAN forecast $37B by 2025 with 24% CAGR (20-25)
. Data forecast $12.1B by 2025 or 22% CAGR (20-25)
3. PIC based technologies expected $5.7B in 2017
. Forecast $36B by 2025 or 14% CAGR (20-25)
. PIC includes InP, GaAs, other
. Sip, Polymer to reach 68% by 2025
4. Photonic transceivers 13.3 B in 2017
. WAn client side TxRx to 15.2 B in 2025, 14% CAGR (20-25)
. Strong growth in DWDM and Ethernet datacom TxRx
5. PIC transceiver forecast
. PIC based TxRx to reach $ 3.8B in 2017
. PIC based technologies to lead by 2020
. PIC transceiver driven by WAN client,Ehernet and DWDM markets
driven by high performance 100 Gbps and 400 Gpbs based TxRx
technologies
6. PIC enabling Ethernet Tx Rx by 2025 : 100 Gbps $ 4,5 B
400 Gbps $ 0,9 B
Lebby showed a slide with an overview of ( competitive) technologies available to everyone, to some and showed what was not available and what was unique to polymer photonics. From this it transpires that LWLG will have the capability to get to a 400 Gbps lower cost modulator engine. Cost scalable to DC metrics( 1$/Gbps), long term reliability, non hermetic packaging for 400 Gbps, possibility to integrate modulator onto silicon or InP platform for Mux/Demuxand spot seize converters.