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I called for a sell on bonds last year (and never bought tbt, typical), and am now calling for a buy, but when and how I have no idea!
Important numbers for the spx:
1618 - still rising 50dma, a magnet for price next week.
1632 - rapidly dropping 21dma
If you are super bearish, then go short again at 1618, if more bullish wait for 1630. I plan to be out of my long in qld at spx 1615, if not sooner.
Cboe put call ratio yesterday 1.39, today 1.20 (anything over 1.2 is always bullish short term)
Isee yesterday .41, today .73 (anything under .8 is bullish,anything under .55 is very bullish)
too much worry right away, not saying we rally up to 1720, but 1620 or 1630 looks doable early next week.
Enjoy the weekend.
I see us back to spx 1620 or even 1630 on monday-tuesday, not much more.
bought qld at 63.9, will sell at 66 or so.
Wish me luck, gld doing well so far.
yes, we drop more later this summer, but a 2 day bounce makes sense, and we may have seen the lows of the day, but also possible one more drop later today.
No crash today, but still one might be coming later this summer, depends on many factors.
have a great weekend.
I see a selling climax in gold, with a rally back to gld 132, 140, or even 150 before the next huge drop.
I also see a bounce tomorrow off the lows, and a 2 day rally. Am buying qld in the morning, on any drop to not much below todays lows.
Of course, a crash is always possible, but more likely we dont crash untill the fall. Just my gut, not anything else.
Of, put call on cboe highest since 2011, and lowest reading on Isee since 2008. I would be a buyer tomorrow.
gold is for sure a buy here, major support at these levels.
14 to 1 on downside stocks to upside, this is a selling climax. But, this could turn into a total route if we start to go under 1600. Watch for a close under 1600 to trigger major selling tomorrow too.
However, if we can close over 1600, then triple witching tomorrow should support a small rally back to todays highs, but not more.
High trin at close yesterday did not work as a short term buy today, in case anyone didnt notice.
I thought a triangle pattern was a continuation pattern? Which means gold goes down once it breaks?
I have learned over the years triangles are not reliable patterns to trade off, as they give too many false signals. Flags and pennants are more reliable continuation patterns.
Am still holding my gld, stubborn.
For the record: We have worked the oversold condition down to neutral, so if you are super bearish, time to short.
My gut says we go higher into Friday, causing more pain for the shorts, setting up the final top with a decline starting next week.
Sold my qqq near close, taking profits never hurts. Not much money, but is better to make than lose in my experience!
BTW, 21dma is falling, but all we need to do is close over 1660 for a week to get it going back up again. I don't think we will, I suspect up into fed meeting, then ????????
Price becoming more volatile, classic topping pattern. But still, the path of least resistance this week is up. Not time to sell the farm and buy stocks, but not quite time to short.
so up into end of week, and then the market tanks? Is what I am seeing too, nto sure how high we go.
Worst case for bulls is we get back to neutral on oscilators, and then turn down.
Waiting to short this time, learned my lesson the first 4 months of the year.
Yes, the yen carry trade has supported stock prices for a long time. I see a sell in the dollar, yen will do well for now. All trends last until they stop.
I would not want to be short this market this week. I expect at least 1650, and although we could pull back a1% from that level, I still see 1675 or higher by the end of the week.
Am staying long, which is not my style this late in a rally, but the set up is so easy for more positive move.
Am seeing major signs of a bottom in gold. Not expecting a new bull rally to begin, but a rally back to $150 for gld is likely.
Still think we are in deflationary conditions until the money printing causes inflation, so most assets will drop, but short term, gold and silver look good for a strong pop.
Think we go up this week in the market, but not willing to sell the farm and bet that.
If you look at the charts, we got over the top channel in may, bounced off the lower band yesterday, and now if we can not get to the upper channel next rally, the rally is over!
Classic topping pattern. High trin today says we rally next week. Would use a drop monday morning to buy more.
Would not bet the farm on it, but next week looks up to me.
I respect how strong your conviction is.
We got a nice buy signal at the close, trin at 1.76. If we do rally to 1675 or 1722, would be an important top, with the increased volatility we are starting to see.
I bought some qqq afterhours, about 20% of my money. Have 10% still in gld.
You seem to get it right more often than not, but I still see spy 167 before the next wave of selling.
Increased volatility normal before a big selloff, so maybe your being short is the smart thing to do right now.
Am not playing the rally, but the fed is buying big time on Monday too, so a rally into Monday feels right, relieving the oversold condition, setting up the next decline.
I will short at spx 1675 or less on Monday or Tuesday, if we get there. Too bad the market normaly does not make it that easy.
btw, had a buy at spx 1608 for today, but was too scared after what happened in Tokyo to do anything. typical!
Late last night, it looked like a slaughter today. Now who knows?
Fed pushing prices up, bad economy pushing prices down.
Who wins? Not willing to play this market, again the best of luck to those who can. Beyond my pay scale.
If you look at the trend line from Nov 16th, lows of mid april, we bounced off that line so far today.
If we break it at the close, as in close below the low of the day so far, that is a big sell signal.
If we do break it, normally we will try to rally back to that line at some point, but not be able to to before the big selling starts in again.
However, if we can bounce, then a run to 1675 make sense, if anything makes sense in this market.
good luck trading.
Did we just make a double bottom, and a run back to 1675 is next, or is todays bounce just a fake out?
I am not willing to bet either way. If I had to make a pick, i would go long here.
good luck trading this set up. Again, the biggest declines come off very oversold conditions, and we has as oversold a condition as it gets.
Looks like I was wrong, all we got was a 2 day bounce off last weeks big decline.
The tell was the low trin in this decline, different than the 3 3% drops since november.
Support at 1570, most likely it holds, rally back to 1600, then down, down.
Would not buy tomorrow until the close, if then. gold might shine for awhile, but still not super bullish on it.
Watch for high trin to signal the next short term buy signal.
Thanks for your input. I do not see a new high on spx before November myself, but a new high on qqq is typical before the big decline starts.
We could get a 8% decline off the 1687 before a rally back to 1675 or so, time will tell.
I just dont see a major decline yet, but a flash crash with the insane instability of the financial systems is possible this week, as really big down days come off oversold conditions.
Am still long gld from last year, after all the hedges i sold, am about breakeven at this point. Not super bullish gold short term, but trying to be long term in one investment at least, other than my house bought in 1984.
Market is very oversold, but as we all know, big declines come off very oversold conditions.
As usual, when market is about to turn, often indicators are not all saying the same thing.
Last, I have been a super bear all year, and now that perhaps we are about to fall hard, I am not bearish short term. Perhaps, taking a longer view and being short is the smart move.
Last, my uncle says the ecb could save the day if they turn the austerity into stimulus, along with govts doing the same. He was super bearish until recently, but he and I could be wrong.
Bottom line: Takes courage to short in oversold conditions, but staying long with overbought conditions made good money the past several months.
1. we are very oversold in a bullish overall pattern
2. Isee and cboe option players are very bearish today and for the last week, which is bullish.
3. You are right, a close below 1600 on spx and down she goes, possible hard and fast, but i dont see it.
best of luck trading. Longer term indicators are overall bearish, so you may be right.
I would not be surprised to see what you predict come true, but my gut says 1675 is the target for shorting.
One can see today as retest of last weeks lows, and we held so far. If so, then a run to 1720 is possible. Or, I see today as indicating this rally has not power behind it, and then 1675 or less is all we can do.
Not sure which will play out for now, but leaning towards no new high on spx, new high on qqq.
I would not be surprised to see what you predict come true, but my gut says 1675 is the target for shorting.
One can see today as retest of last weeks lows, and we held so far. If so, then a run to 1720 is possible. Or, I see today as indicating this rally has not power behind it, and then 1675 or less is all we can do.
Not sure which will play out for now, but leaning towards no new high on spx, new high on qqq.
Although it looks scary right now, my gut is we wobble higher into the end of the week, and then fall hard and fast.
If we can hold above 1600 tomorrow, then up and away to 1670 is the best probability. If not, then the bears were right and all we could muster was a 2 day rally off the extreme oversold last thursday.
This is a tough pattern to play short term, but the trend is now down, just another rally could scare enough bears out of their shorts. I should probably be short, but am waiting, waiting.
Have been so wrong so many times this year, not willing to do much right now.
Wwhen we bounced, I predicted 1645 to 1675, so we could be topping.
However, am not seeing anything other than resistance at 1645 to indicate a drop, which does not mean it will not happen, but that i am unwilling to short at this time.
Best of luck, will post when and if I see the next sell signal.
Good question, and the answer is it always depends on current price structure and oscilator values.
Rallies take time to end, they keep going a lot longer than expected.
Back before computers, i would wait until price broke below the lower trend line to short, now I would short when we get back to previous highs with non-confirmation from numerous indicators.
Bottom line: Economy slowing quickly, fed still pedal to the metal. makes trading dangerous either direction. My experience says we are in a trading range for now, 1600 to 1700, and i will trade with the in mind.
As to a eventual low, it all depends on how bad the economic news gets.
When price can not make it back to the upper channel line after falling to the lower, it is a sell, confirmed when the lower channel line is broken.
That is my expectation for the coming month, we rally to 1675 or so, then fall below the lower channel line, maybe one more rally back to that line, and then the big correction.
The above is the classic topping formation, which happens a lot more often than you would think.
Bullish:
We bounced off 50dma, and lower trend lines again
high minus tick and high trin on Wednesday, followed by a key reversal on Thursday.
Extreme readings of advance declines, both 10dma and McClellen oscillator
We got a paltry 5% correction, but it does reset the clock.
Option players still worried yesterday and today, so fear is still enough to power a rally.
bearish:
21dma of vix rising, which can take weeks to finally take hold
We got so out of whack on price above trend lines, that we need more of a drop to finish this correction, but it can play out with a new high (I predict a new high on qqq, but not spx)
WE never got real extreme trin readings, which is strange and predicts more downside coming soon.
bottom line: range bound, 1600 to 1700 for next couple months, then?
My gut is we run to 1675, pull back a little, then up to new highs.
Looks like the top in early 2011, which took months to play out. Or could be like last april, with the next rally failing.
BTW, we got so oversold, will take a week just to get back to neutral, not a good time to short in my opinion.
Thought I posted having sold my position earlier today, but guess not. Sold when the spx first hit 1642, even though I was sure we would run up into the close.
Reality is we all will be right sometimes, so am no genius. I have been posting since 1998, first on a board I cant remember, then on clearstation starting in March 2000, and now here. I have been investing-trading since sept 1986, when I bought stock in a small computer company called apple, which I then sold in august, etc.
Thanks for noticing I was right this time.
I took profit, 1642 was close enough to 1645 for me to get out.
Not feeling great about this trade, as May was such a terrible month for me, but I can see that when a solid signal arises, take it. I just made about 1/3 of what I lost in may in a day.
For now, I would bet on the upside more than the downside, although we are past the last 2 trading days and first 5 of a month, when the upside rules, so not sure about next week.
I would not be surprised to see spx 1600 or spx 1670 next week. In times like that, is best for me to do nothing.
Enjoy the rest of the day and the weekend. I am off to replace a leaking faucet, OH JOY! Only thing worse than a trade going wrong is having to do plumbing. New plumbing is fun and easy, fixing old plumping sucks.
Overhead resistance at:
1645 - 21dma
1660 - trendline
1674 - recent high
I will sell my qld at 1645 on spx, although I would not short until 1660. Likely we at least retest 1600 later this month.
There are only a few solid buy signals, and wednesday gave one at the close, and the action yesterday confirmed it.
I agree, short the rallies, but also buy the 5% corrections for now.
Is a crash possible? Always. And just because we are in an extreme oversold condition does not mean we get a rally.
But my system and my gut say buy, buy, buy. If i was not so shell shocked from the past month of losing money shorting, would have gone 100% long the qld this morning.
The market is always right.
1. 5% correction, which is a good entry.
2. My uncle now says he does not see a recession in the Leading Economic Indicators, unless europe falls apart. And he sees them doing more of what they need to do to prevent a meltdown.
3. Really high trin and high negative tick at the close, which is a buy signal.
4. All we did was correct 5%, you would think the world ended by the reaction of people.
5. Cboe and isee both are showing extreme pessimism, so a quick rally back to recent highs makes sense.
I try to not gamble, although the shorting was pretty dumb, and maybe now I will again be dumb enough to get slaughtered tomorrow. We could see a down day friday, but we need more of a rally to relieve the extreme oversold condition.
have been doing this for 27 years, have lost sometimes, won most of the time. Hope am right, as need a good trade to regain my confidence.
Had order to put 50% of my money into qld and it got filled at 65.6. Finally, a good fill on an overnight order.
Thinking of buying even more, the option numbers and high minus tick, high trin at close yesterday, are almost sure buy signals.
Unless the bear has begun, which is always possible, but I am pretty sure we at least rally to spx 1630 before a serious decline begins.
wish me luck
If we go up in morning, then sell off into afternoon, but 1600 or so holds as support, my gut is to buy. Think we got a buy signal today, but often you need a bit lower low the next day to confirm.
Also, gap down that ends on an up day is a short term buy now.
Looks good for a bounce tomorrow, all fits. Not time to sell the farm and go long the market, as this correction has further to go, but a run back to 1630 or higher into next week looks likely to me.
but have been so wrong for so long, would not listen to my advice. I bought some qld just after the close.
BTW, almost filled the gap up (1598 previous day, 1613 was the real low that day) from the last employment report.
Those who love risk should look at buying at the close, but remember if we drop hard into close, you will get better prices in the first 5 minutes after the close in after market trading.
Good luck to all, and since my record this year is attrocious, best to do the opposit of what I think?