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Let's get back on PTQ. Consider the source and ignore it. In Panama there are laws on the books that make personal and public attacks crimes that result in jail sentences, rather than just civil penalties like fines or other sanctions. All residents are subject to the law and the government is very aggressive in enforcing them. That seems to make for a more civil discourse.
I am surprised that we have not seen more of a build up in SP going into the Q1 report next week. I looked up several other stocks that are producing 70,000-80,000 oz/yr. with about the same reserves and they are trading between $4.57 and $6.25. I also noted that 24hGold has moved their trend barometer from -27 to a +34 on the scale that runs -50 to +50, (bearish-Bullish). The only missing part seems to be a history of producing at the levels mentioned above.
More patience and more accumulation seems to be the order of the day.
Korean Government is apparently going to develop Cobre Panama. All the Asian governments, (i.e.India, China, Korean, Vietnam), want to tie down direct deals for PM's so that they can directly benefit their own central banks. How about granting rights to Petaquilla, since they are on the ground, have the expertise, the work force, and then selling the whole deal to Vietnam?
I imagine that the Chinese, who are already heavily invested in Panama, will perk up their ears since they do not view Korea or Vietnam as allies. One can speculate forever...the bottom line, as you and many others have stated, is...LET'S PRODUCE SOME GOLD...CONSISTENTLY & EFFICIENTLY!!!
That will solve all of the problems, and the rest is just gravy.
Tomorrow Roberto Henriquez will meet in Panama with Vietnamese Government officials to set up mining explorations by the Vietnamese in this coming year. The Government of Vietnam is very interested in mining for gold in Panama with direct sales back to Vietnam as part of the deal, similar to what is happening with Petaquilla and Canada.
Let's look at what we do know:
EBITDA: FY2010 Q1 -5.24, Q2 -4.10, Q3 -0.07, Q4 +2.44
Does anyone think that FY2011 Q1 won't be better than FY2010 Q4?
Even without the re-fi it will show a strong upward trend. FY2011 Q2 without the re-fi servicing, with steady production, and gold prices climbing will knock it out of the park!
I cannot predict the future share prices...only God knows and He is not telling. Anyone with even a basic understanding of financial statements can see that FY2011 will be profitable, and greatly so. If the markets do reflect the future at least six months ahead then there should be some real upside soon.
With B of A, Deutsche Bank, and others forecasting $1,500.00 gold next year it is quite possible that the company will earn more than today's SP in FY2011 ending May 2011. That should shake the most jaded short trader and basher.
The positives and negatives have been pretty well explored over the past couple of months. My advice to the company was to just stop all anticipatory Press Releases and let the achievement announcements and required filings speak for themselves.
As to the deleted posts...I do not abide the basest, bigoted, hate speech that would be cause for dismissal in any company in the world and felt I should state the obvious and leave it at that.There is no place for this here and it does not add to anyone's understanding of the issues. It is really sort of pathetic.
I don't see too much movement until the second quarter results are filed in January 2011. There may be some up ticks on Q1 or a 43-101 for ODN along the way. With regards to financial risk...that is off the table now.
With regards to management communications...we know that is not a priority. My discussions with some of the management team indicates that they just are not concerned with short term price movement,(for better or worse), but look to long term profitability bringing the SP to where the value of the company is recognized. I can live with that, and think we have come along way already.
With regard to soundness of reports and DD...I am satisfied that DB put up the money and have a five year agreement. I also know the auditors and they are first class.
Saludos
Large volume in Germany 10X the average amount: Today 1,046,892 shares, Average 109,634 shares. All markets up except Frankfurt that dropped right at the end of the day.
It would seem that the DB deal has stirred much more interest there than here. Almost a million shares between Stuttgart and Frankfurt.
Yes. I believe that fully diluted there can be only about 150mm shares out. Outstanding now, I believe is 125mm. As to production...I think that is low. If they can pour 5,000 oz./mo.@2,200 T/D I believe they will get 12,000 oz./mo. @5,500 T/D when expansion is completed. Add in 50,000 oz./yr. for heap leach fields and you have 194,000 oz./yr. rate probably by FY 2012 that starts in May 2011.
In addition, there will be quite a bit of silver produced that no one has factored into the equation, along with some additional reserves that will be proved up and published in the next 43-101 report.
With the refinancing of the rest of the long term debt in the near future, the company should be in a position to fully exploit their opportunities. I know that they still have a lot of unexplored concessions and are actively seeking more.
PDI will be getting some contracts, both from the government and likely from the Korean mining investment. This spin-off then is an added bonus.
I am quite comfortable with my holdings, but of course everyone must act in their own behalf after studying the project. Personally, I am hoping for either a whole lot of growth, or a dividend of $1.00/share a few years down the road. With tax implications as they are, I do not anticipate selling for many years.
PETAQUILLA CUMPLE!!!!
Excellent production from Dr. Arosemena being viewed by everybody on the street today and discussed in coffee shops. Thanks to Petaquilla Panama now has a positive balance of trade with Canada for the first time ever in any market. Lot's of good vibes from this.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggY5HW5rDrM
Thank you, I will try to follow your inference.
1,350,000 shares traded today between Canada, Germany, and USA.
Sometimes it is good to take the long view for perspective. I was reviewing the financial reports on BigCharts.com and focused on how far we have come:
EBITDA: Operating Profit before Depreciation.
4/2007 $-25.58
5/2008 $-18.94
5/2009 $-21.23
5/2010 $- 5.24
This is a good trend and there is no doubt that FY 2011 will show a profit, with FY 2012 even better. Patience will be well rewarded, and all the rest is just background chatter.
Lojiko, I give you note of support. This is not your full time job.
There are ample means to appeal and I do not think you should agonize over fulfilling your job. I know you have been involved since 2007.
As for me I follow the board for two reasons:
One: It is a good place to find early news particularly from Europe as some of the members are over there.
Two: It is a great Place for entertainment and amusement when I am a little bored. Some of this stuff is hysterical.
Soooo...just keep on keeping on...anyone that bases their life around the board, for information and direction, has got problems far to big to address here! The Balboas are cold, and the peacock bass are biting!!
OH yeah...CI, I saw your post before Lojiko deleted it way back when... I am arrogant AND German...but I thought that was a good thing!?!?
Saludos!
Thank you very much. Yahoo is showing Stuttgart at 2,110,000 shares traded today. I have no idea how they put things together. In any case from what you have told me: I understand the make up of the Yahoo Frankfurt number; which is also the number reflected on the Petaquilla web site.
Good Luck with your investment.
P7Z.SG (Stuttgart)on Yahoo showing 2,110,000 shares traded today and closing at .34. Average sales/day are something like 1,100. Is this a correct figure??? P7Z.F in Frankfurt is show 699,000 also. If this is true that would be nearly 3,000,000 shares when you include Berlin and Munich. Can anyone verify Yahoo's reporting??
OK, I was just getting worried about you. Don't forget Fifer, Wells Fargo, and other big players would like to see $7.00-$10.00 for their shares and they have a lot of them. They have come this far and I'm pretty sure they will make the money they intend to over the long term.
Why are you so up tight? You seem unhappy when the volume and shares are down, and then also when they are up like today. +9% on top of +5% yesterday in Canada; +16% in Germany; +17% in USA. It seems like you want to strike out at the world. I think we will consistently more upwards over the next six to twelve months, so again, why are you so unhappy? Is your stake too large, or too small for your peace of mind??
Wish you the best, in any case! Hope you achieve what you are searching for in this stock.
CI, I found the Spanish text. Mostly old news, however one between the lines inference. Carlos Salazar, the spokesperson from the company, had "no comment" when questioned by reporters. Maybe they have learned to keep their mouths shut and let their results speak for themselves!
That is one convoluted translation!!
I have a ranch 20 miles due East of the mine. There have been heavy rains, but that is normal and gets worse through November after which the dry season begins.
Because of its location, now south of the intercontinental convergence zone's location, Panama is spared from hurricanes and a lot of storms. Most of the really bad stuff is north and west up through the rest of Central America and into Mexico.
You can go to the weather channel through Google and get up to the minute radar of the area with the maps available.
CI, saw your other post today, "Every time they put one out, they throw another pie in their face."
This may be truer than even you believe. Because of anxiety, every word they say is put under a microscope and commented on "ad infinitum". This occurs whether it is by PR or 'Tom's e-mail express'. Since it does not help the shares, why take the time and money to jump through the hoops?
My advice to them is to stop any further "off the record" communications and no anticipatory PR releases. Stick to the facts and only publish the required SEDAR/SEC filings.
Overtime there will be less 'hype' and if the numbers are good, the SP will react accordingly, albeit on solid results. Then we can all relax and check back every quarter to catch up on the news. As the GSM guy says, "the world does not revolve around PTQ".
Not a set date. I would not look for anything really significant until mid January 2011 when Q2 results are published. That should include six months of FY 2011 and probably have all of the debt issues resolved by then.
PDI SPIN_OFF OUT. VISION OF CI NAKED CANCELS PROJECT!!!
Make it easier. For FY 2012,use Q1 report numbers with following changes...no debt service...production @$550/oz....sales $1,200/oz....production 8500 oz./mo....no taxes...G&A steady...Ca-Ching! Ca-Ching! Ca-Ching!
OCF CITY!!!
Toss in some additional reserves, a nice evaluation from the outside analytical firm, and a spin-off coming with some contracts.
$7.50/$0.40=18.75 bagger. Not so good for the $3.00 stuff, but very very, nice for the $0.26 stuff!! Like the von Trapp teenager..."I can wait a year or two."
Love that dollar cost averaging.
Excellent analysis and post on Stockhouse #28630489 this morning. Spell things out in very clear language.
www.stockhouse.com = Bullboard = T.PTQ = search
Well analyzed and spoken.
The company gives up less gold;
credit for $15MM more for the gold they are selling ($225/oz.); hedged the price against gold bubble;
obtained a bonus above $875.00/oz. up to $1,290/oz.;
removed threat of any negative action from all note holders;
shored up financial reporting faith due to DB's DD process;
received long term commitment from a major world respected player; obtained huge leverage for dealing with local banks and entities.
Looks like the extra month of negotiation was very effective. Ankle bitters were complaining all month about a lack of news, while at the same time saying news should not be forthcoming until the end of September, the traditional time for gold interest to perk up.
IMO the financial risk is now gone since they will either re-fi the rest of the debt with DB or Panamanian Banks. Now it is expansion of production, consistent pours, increase of reserves through 43-101 reports. Shallow DD may not pick up the significance of this bench mark, but those involved for seven or eight years understand. You can expect the company to be listed on a good exchange in a couple of years.
Bank of America on MSN this morning is predicting $1,500.00 gold next year!!! Let's see...@10,000oz./mo that's.....
Article this afternoon posted @3:43 PM EDT in Panama-Guide quoting government spokesman clearing Petaquilla of accusations from environmentalists that they had contaminated rivers with cyanide. Quotes further that environmentalists should "stick to the truth". Government test results showed that nothing was contaminated.
I would explain the law and policy requirements, but you would probably not understand. Nothing was slipped. See you at $1.00 probably about January 15th after Q2 results, if you don't give yourself a cardiac before.
Good Luck!
MICI is the government entity that Henriquez heads. Ministry of Industry and Commerce, etc. They control the granting and monitoring of PM concessions. This week one of the big concessionaires, ( I don't remember their name off hand, but it was in the Papers.), had their concession canceled in an area known to have huge reserves of Copper, Gold, and Silver. Apparently they did not live up to their contractual commitments to MICI and MICI pulled the plug on them.
Petaquilla is the darling of the government and the 'model' of how things must be done in the future of Panama mining sector. It is believed that important people are heavily invested.
Azuero Exploration, headed by Fifer, (a Cambio Democratico founder with Martinelli), is 47.5% owned by Petaquilla. IMHO there is a good chance that major concessions will be coming down the line...perhaps starting with the big one they just canceled. Wouldn't it be nice to have 47.5% of another Cobre Panama??
Let me see if I understand you. Deutsche Bank, one of the top ten in the world, is engaged in a shady, maybe crooked, deal with Petaquilla's Board of Directors and Management, in Panama, with government approval?? Come on down and spread that around and see how it flies.
If you want to see corruption look at your house first...particularly the administration and Manhattan Island.
If I had put this deal together, I would have wanted at least $1,000,000.00.
Hell, Bill Clinton gets almost that for an introduction. I believe Ex-Gov. Conley, the guy who was shot with Kennedy, got $250,000.00 in 1965 dollars for setting up any preliminary introductions. It will cost you at least $250,000.00 to talk to Obama for a minute or two.
The rates seem perfectly normal in today's world, and a little cheap at that.
Nice 50,000 share by at 13:29:49 @$0.405.
Think they are planning to lose money. Just relax and give the market time to absorb the news, absorb the rest of the refinance, see the first quarter production, and watch the steady improvement. To get good management you have to pay for them. Look where this company has gone in the last ten months!
Oh Yeah...I forgot...the thinly traded market knocked the price down from around $0.90 to $0.35 while trading around 120,000 shares a day with 121,000,000 outstanding. BFD...reminds me of ants scurrying around the picnic table looking for morsels. IMO Fifer will not sell below $7.50 and I don't think Wells Fargo will either.
Next up...closing of rest of re-fi...then Q1 reports...then ODN 43-101...then after Cobre Panama gets off the ground, spin-off time!
Whoops!!! I almost forgot AZUERO explorations. Did you miss that MICI did not renew that big concession this week, and will probably give it to AZUERO that has CUMPLE?
I believe we would have access to the agreement at the latest when audited books are filed in September 2011. While I am not familiar enough with SEC and SEDAR rules to be sure, They may have to disclose the entire agreement when they file a report of significant changes to the company.
I think gold could drop back in a bubble, in which case they are well hedged. Gold could also soar to $3,000.00 per ounce with collapse of some world currencies or a regional war in the middle east. In that case I don't give a damn about not getting top dollar for the 6% when I have 94% still MINE and the ability to dig it up debt free.
Sort of like the guy who just won $300,000,000.00 in the power ball and says, "OMG I HAVE TO PAY TAXES ON THAT!!!"
I just want to know how long I have to wait to get my $1.00/share dividend.
Looks to me like it has been up as high as 18% in about one hour on good volume in Canada. That would seem to be a reasonable bump. I would expect $0.50 by the end of the month would be reasonable and sustainable.
Lojiko, I am amazed at the lack of comprehension on this board. My congratulations to Richard Fifer and the Board of Directors on completing this major deal. I especially like the additional capital that will flow into the company while the price of gold remains between $875 and $1,290.00.
Anyone who does not see this as a true turning point must have gotten their MBA's on line and slept through Money&Banking or Risk Management at the undergrad level.
Give the market a couple of weeks to digest this along with the completion of the deal to retire all of the debt with DB, (Did you notice they have a term sheet for this?), or the Panamanian Banks.
Talk about leverage!!! Didn't anyone understand what I posted about Panama considering forming a central Bank??
I will still get my $7.50/share.
This is a little obtuse, please bear with me. In today's financial pages in Panama there is a discussion about forming a Central Bank and breaking with the U.S. Dollar, which they see as doomed. They would go on the gold/silver standard and create $1.00, $5.00, $10.00, $20.00 Balboa coins made of real silver. With the price of silver and gold the coins would be the same size as current USA/Balboa coins. There is even a picture of an actual new $20.00 silver coin, so they are already minting them. Thus no more fiat money.
The point being...Panama has vast silver, copper, and gold reserves that can be mined to back their Central Bank. They know that the dollar is done and they plan to fill their vaults with real metals.
ERGO...THEREFORE...YOU CAN BET THE FARM THEY WILL CONTINUE THE EXPANSION OF THE MINING SECTOR AND NOTHING WILL SHUT IT DOWN.
Yesterday the environmentalists tangled with the German company, that is expanding the canal, over removal of some rock from the river bottom. Police were called and beat the crap out of the tree/rock huggers that were blocking work. Patience with these idiots has about run out.
Also the main potable water plant that supplies central Panama has been shut down for two days due to muddy water from all of the heavy rains. Environmentalists were all ready to blame Petaquilla until someone pointed out all of the rivers in that watershed empty into the ocean and not Lake Gatun!! Whoops!!!
Now I understand.
Lojiko, who is Salvo? Sounds like a little ankle biting Chihuahua stray that ran up behind the group. CI, is he a relative or something? His depth of understanding and analysis makes me think he is up for a high level appointment in the Administration, maybe a new replacement for economics guru.
Obviously I can only speculate since I have no real information:
1. True large share holders, say 2,000,000 shares up probably have a lot of investments and this is just what they allotted for this particularly speculative flyer.
2. There may be some disclosure requirements for insider trading in both Canada and USA and they don't want to jump through the hoops.
3. There may be some tax implications.
4. There may be some Panamanian restrictions.
5. They may be busy with the larger problems getting the project up to its potential.
6. This is a very small project and the number of people involved with salaries at a level to allow speculation in the markets is probably relatively small.
7. We do not know how many millions of shares the 'big boys' actually control.
8. Probably you cannot fill an order for 300,000 or 400,000 shares @$0.37 which is what it would take to make a decent buy.
9. Maybe they are not concerned about the short term share price and are comfortable working on long term stuff that will ultimately yield a good return on there already extensive holdings.
Who knows the answer??? I just don't think they pay much attention to the share price right now as they are not selling and feel in 12 to 24 months it will be much better.
CI, I seriously think you need to sell your position...take a vacation...get some therapy...and maybe some meds. I am beginning to worry about your health. Take your daughters to Victoria for a week or maybe Campbell River. You seem more stressed than LILO!!
Next news will be when DB deal is closed and money changes hands. We will have a Quarterly Report in a little over three weeks. Environmental stuff is under control.
Don't know what this suing stuff is about?? If you are worried about being sued, just relax. You are safe,just claim stress and insanity. If you want to sue someone I know a good firm.
YES VIRGINIA...THERE IS A SANTA CLAUS AND A CHRISTMAS...PATIENCE GRASSHOPPER. 100,000 oz. in 2011!!
I think there is a government report in the works, but remember Martinelli fired a bunch of those guys. I think you can be assured if there was ANY kind of contamination in one of the three rivers the environmentalists would be shouting it from the rooftops.
To say that all they could find was erosion and muddy water in the middle of the rainy season is really pathetic. Wonder what they would say about the Missouri or Mississippi rivers?? Annual floods in the area have washed out hundred of homes in the last few months.
As I have said before, even the farmers move their cattle to higher ground before the monsoon season.
Looks like all clear,(err..that is 'muddy' to me).
Found second article giving more details. Water in rivers Turbe, Molejon, and San Juan that are near the mine, ARE MUDDY!!! No shit. There has been heavy rain for weeks the rivers are running high and the environmentalists blame the mine, (that does not discharge water) for the muddy rivers. No results on any real contamination. But they got their headline!!