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It's like a coin-toss with a 10x payout. Very risky but you'd be a fool to not have an appropriately sized position in it. You'd also be a fool to have an inappropriately sized position in it. One definitely wouldn't want to be short on this one.
I too was very pleased to hear Frrol has had an ongoing buying plan since January and is going to wrap it up with 50K shares this week.
I think he meant there are likely CDAs/NDAs in place surrounding any partnership discussions.
Once a partnership is completed, we shareholders will be notified through the proper channels.
See? No worries. Just let Leo work his magic. He has done more with less in the past.
IPIX isn't going out of business or failing.
Anyone caught short at the wrong time may end up going out of business though.
$100M upfront would probably send this to $2 over night. That would turn a $3000 short position into a $57,000 loss. Gives me the chills just thinking about that. And it would probably be some poor chump who wandered by and listened to all the nay saying.
Another gigantic cancer treatment deal:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/astrazeneca-sets-6-9-billion-003543989.html
1.35 billion upfront.
5.6 billion in milestones.
"Projected to rake in $7 billion annually at its peak, Daiichi’s treatment has been seen to double survival time for advanced breast cancer patients to 20 months from 10"
All that for a treatment that adds 10 months survival to breast cancer patients.
The bar is low for Kevetrin. Any sign of efficacy from an oral Kevetrin treatment should rocket our valuation into orbit.
We'll likely find out in the 10Q in May if not before.
Salary deferrals, layoffs, cessation of all laboratory/development work, etc. are all possibilities if additional funding does not come in. Plenty of ways to get monthly expenses well south of $1 million.
Deal-making is the only function of the company that needs to be ongoing at this time.
With the sale of the property, what does the cash position for NWBO look like? Are balance sheet concerns shored up enough to reach partnership?
Monday will come and go with no fanfare. Too much fretting about a heavily misinterpreted statement in the 10Q.
All of those projections were based on the "current operating plan" in place at the time. Obviously, the current operating plan has been reformed to avoid insolvency if funding is not available.
Leo has brought the company forward during MUCH tighter times than this. He will continue to guide us through the storm to clear seas.
Yes he has. A Scotty by any other name is still a Scotty.
You are so wrong about IPIX it's not even funny.
Sure. At the time of the PR they planned to do additional analysis. There was no specified timeline or statement that results would be shared with shareholders. I'm sure if they thought they could monetize it by selling the Prurisol IP they would. Likely a low priority item with all we have going on and limited cash and staff.
You and I both know that if there was a whiff of a shadow of a sliver of hope for Prurisol Psoriasis it would have been proclaimed from on high. I don't expect to hear anything more about Prurisol from the company. Its trial and development costs have been added to the company's accrued deficit and will be used to offset taxes on partnership milestone payments.
With all the stuff we need to develop in more promising platforms there will be little time/money for taking a second look at our discontinued garbage. Here are just a few:
B-IBD
B-HS
B-AD
B-Acne
B-Otic
Kevetrin
The only other thing I can think of is maybe they think Prurisol would be useful in treating another disease based on some PK data. I'm not holding my breath on anything Prurisol though. Dead and buried as far as I'm concerned.
Sr. Vice President of Clinical Sciences and Portfolio Management?
Hmmm. That sounds like a pretty critical person to have involved with:
Phase 3 trial design.
Trial design discussions with FDA (successful)
Trial design discussions with EMA (coming up)
Pipeline partnership discussions
You know...every one of the major issues the company is undertaking which will determine if we flourish or go out of business.
You're right though, we should probably deny her bonus ($90K) and have her take a job elsewhere in the middle of all this. I hope you picked up on the sarcasm in that last sentence.
You conveniently left off the one that counts:
https://www1.salary.com/Leo-Ehrlich-Salary-Bonus-Stock-Options-for-INNOVATION-PHARMACEUTICALS-I.html
Jane Harness is VP of Clinical Sciences and Portfolio mgmt.
Dr. Bertolino is Chief Medical Officer.
They are awarded bonuses per their employment contracts. What are you going to do...not pay your two critical employees in the middle of phase 3 trial planning and partnership talks? You'd have us save $200K and be stranded with no one to talk clinicals with FDA/EMA/potential partners?
Leo Ehrlich and Krishna Menon did not take bonuses.
Not according to the PR from two weeks ago:
http://www.ipharminc.com/press-release/2019/3...is-program
For the Phase 3 program, the Company anticipates international clinical trial enrollment, with participating sites located in the U.S. and in Europe. EMA advice is integral to this plan by helping to ensure that the program meets European standards.
The company plans to do an international phase 3 in order to kill both the FDA and EMA requirements for approval with one stone. They likely had/have some guidance from a potential partner on this. A very good move by Leo if you ask me.
What bonuses would those be?
I recall four years of salary being deferred here as documented here from the filings:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=129021545&txt2find=deferred
Please provide filing information on these bonuses. I'm not aware of any bonuses taken by Leo Ehrlich or Krishna Menon. If there were any, I'm sure they pale in comparison to the salary deferrals. Bring the info and let's compare.
Getting tired of refuting lies and distortions about the officers of this company.
Because insider trading.
He has knowledge of all partnership/financing discussions at this time which are very material pieces of information.
I would be worried if he was purchasing shares at the market without a purchase plan. That would indicate he was not privy to any material information that might change the course of the company. If that were the case today, that would be problematic for our future outlook.
Larry Culp isn't going to defer his salary and put up a million or two in order to ensure our survival. Leo Ehrlich has done both in the past.
The company was running on less cash than this near the start of the decade with far less promise. Leo pulled things together and got us through numerous clinical trials. He will do it again.
Your reading comprehension of the 10-Q needs some polish.
April 1 will come and go without mention of funding and all will be fine. Leo has done more with less before. He screwed up by not raising cash back when we were rising because he has the mind of a accountant instead of a CEO. Now the tide has turned we're in his element. Running on fumes is his specialty and he is proven at it. There's no one I'd rather have running this company at this time than Leo Ehrlich.
No. No. No. I've explained this to you before Dunn.
I'm hoping that with IBD involved, even a "heavier back end" deal will still have $50M-100M+ upfront. We need to clear off that $8M in liabilities and still have enough to show the markets that the war chest is solid for years to come.
As long as our funding is questionable or dependent upon the market in the short-medium term we are at the mercy of manipulators. There's too much on the line to continue with the shoe string budget in my opinion.
IPIX Short interest is out today:
03/15/2019 Innovation Pharma 884,861 872,855 12,006 1.38 695,054 1.27
https://otce.finra.org/otce/equityShortInterest
They reported an average volume of 695,054 for the two week period. We never hit 695.054 for a single day let alone for the average for the period:
03/15/2019 0.13 0.1412 0.1137 0.13 410,580
03/14/2019 0.111 0.12 0.111 0.1189 264,241
03/13/2019 0.115 0.125 0.11 0.12 384,406
03/12/2019 0.1279 0.1279 0.115 0.1175 278,799
03/11/2019 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.1279 359,435
03/08/2019 0.128 0.135 0.122 0.1255 219,203
03/07/2019 0.13 0.13 0.121 0.125 226,552
03/06/2019 0.132 0.15 0.1298 0.13 466,807
03/05/2019 0.18 0.18 0.14 0.1424 371,973
03/04/2019 0.12 0.17 0.12 0.17 475,644
03/01/2019 0.127 0.136 0.126 0.1348 355,785
I suggest everyone who is tired of this IPIX manipulation submit a complaint to Finra. It takes about 4 minutes to submit:
http://www.finra.org/investors/investor-complaint-center
This is untrue. Leo did not sell any shares. He traded in debt in exchange for shares. Any subsequent sale would have required a filing. Why are you making up lies about insider sales?
Agreed. Shorting here based on technicals could be very hazardous for one's financial health. It's a good way to end up with a GoFundMe listing.
Certainly valid. Everything is a risk. In this case it appears the reward outweighs the risk. When you're offered a coin toss and the payout is 5:1, 10:1, or 20:1 it behooves one to take a position, albeit and appropriately sized one with the knowledge that it may be lost.
It was good to hear someone as cautious as yourself has been buying over the past couple months and plans to add 50K shares next week.
If the p53 modulation demonstrated by Kevetrin works as we expect, Kevetrin should have a synergistic effect with most other chemo, radiation, and immuno therapies in cancers with p53 abnormalities.
To simplify, Kevetrin will prevent the out of control growth and excessive lifespans of cancerous cells with p53 abnormalities. Once this is under control, existing treatment can more effectively kill the cancer. Possibly, lower doses of other therapies can be used as a result which will result in significantly reduced side-effects while maintaining efficacy of treatment.
If Kevetrin works, it will work on a much wider scale than any individual immunotherapy. Do no underestimate the value of Kevetrin just because it appears to have taken a back seat to Brilacidin.
What awaits Kevetrin in the near term? What would a deal look like if we cut one now? Let's look at some comps.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=145781762
$80M upfront on 2 preclinical targets
$640M upfront + $1.5B milestones on 1 phase 1 PD-1 copycat
$150M upfront + $2.4B milestones on 10 preclinical targets
$225M upfront + $2.4B milestones on two phase 1 targets
$80M upfront + $2.8B milestones on a grab bag of preclinical targets
$200M upfront + $2.8B milestones on four preclinical targets
Kevetrin could likely do a deal worth far more than our current market cap of $25M. The comps above should ease the worries of even those who are terribly distraught about only have 2 patients (both successful) in the phase 2 trial.
This is the definition of an inflection point.
“Our Company is now at an inflection point, emerging as a global leader in new OM therapies. The combination of scientific advice from the FDA and the EMA will leave us well positioned to move forward into Phase 3 development with the goal of Brilacidin becoming the first effective and conveniently administered drug approved by both agencies for decreasing the incidence of OM in HNC patients,” commented Arthur P. Bertolino, MD, PhD, MBA, President and Chief Medical Officer at Innovation Pharmaceuticals.
http://www.ipharminc.com/press-release/2019/3/14/innovation-pharmaceuticals-requesting-european-medicines-agency-ema-input-for-international-phase-3-brilacidin-oral-mucositis-program
Signing a good deal will immediately erase all financing concerns, provide third-party validation of the pipeline, and launch us onto path with phase 3 trials. All in a single announcement. This truly is the opportunity of a lifetime at these prices. The upside is in the stratosphere.
I agree with you completely. The company has fallen too far for them to still be making these grand plans if they don't have a reasonable path forward to achieve them. Just need a little faith.
No interim Prurisol 2B:
To my knowledge there was no public explanation. There may have been an email to one or more shareholders either as a broadcast or as an answer to a question. I'm not in possession of it if there was.
Obviously, with hind sight from the trial failure, there was likely minimal to no efficacy beyond placebo. If there was no requirement to report, it was the right move for the company even if it damaged credibility. Imagine if our stock price had fallen below $0.25 due to a Prurisol failure a year earlier than it did. We probably wouldn't be having this conversation.
Kevetrin 2a early end:
http://www.ipharminc.com/press-release/2018/2/8/innovation-pharmaceuticals-concludes-successful-phase-2a-trial-of-kevetrin-for-ovarian-cancer-intra-tumor-modulation-of-p53-observed
The comment about "circling back" was with regard to Rdunn's question about why Leo hasn't found a partner by now. The simple answer is because these things take time and he hasn't yet. If we get a nice big deal later this year then my answer will have sufficed. If we fail to partner then, of course, Leo owes an explanation. Since there was no deadline on when a partnership will occur, "lets circle back later this year to see how things shake out."
The "nothing owed to shareholders" was directed to Scotty asking about the Prurisol results. There was never anything that stated IPIX shareholders would see Prurisol data. Most of the time companies do not release full data sets on failed drugs. To assume this was owed to shareholders was a mistake on his part. A similar falacious assumption was made with redard to the B-OM EOP2 meeting minutes as they are not traditionally nor were they promised to be released to shareholders.
"While additional analysis of the Prurisol data is planned, based on these trial results, the Company will discontinue the Prurisol psoriasis program, focusing development efforts on advancing its other clinical assets, Kevetrin and Brilacidin, both of which have shown therapeutic potential in treating multiple indications."
1) They stated that they plan to do additoinal analysis of the Prurisol data. They did not promise to provide shareholders with a full or partial Prurisol data set. Hence my comment, "nothing is owed to shareholders" with regard to Prurisol.
2) The company has discontinued the Prurisol psoriasis program.
Why would the SEC and Finra want to go after Leo? He has committed no crimes and has not violated any statutes enforced by either organization. He is an honorable man attempting to bring life-saving drugs to market in the face of much adversity.
I'll do it.
$IPIX 10+ BAGGER COMMING!!
Playing cards, finalizing negotiations on a pipeline deal or merger, etc. You know, the stuff they have been having advanced discussions with potential partners about. Whatever gets it done.
You can't forget that Leo has a very great interest in getting as much as he can in a deal. If he can get $50 million, he'll take it over a BK. For us shareholders, that's a double from here after paying our debts. And thats a fairly crappy outcome...the upside is enormous.
Incorrect. That is only if the company continues it's operating plan that require more than $1 million per month. If they cease development and defer executive salaries a few months they could likely last quite a while until a deal is struck.
Don't take liberties with what the filing said.
What sort of a deal would be required to convince you this isn't a scam?
It obviously had no appreciable efficacy above and beyond placebo. If it had, they would have done aggressive sub group analysis to find any silver ling as they did with the Prurisol 2a.
Nothing owed to shareholders. Nothing out of the ordinary in the handling of Prurisol as compared to most other failed drugs.
Why don't we circle back to this post later this year when things shake out. You'll have the answer to your questions eventually. Maybe IPIX will fail to make a deal or maybe it has simply taken longer than you expected. All will be revealed in time.
Wrong. Leo and the IPIX team are keeping hopes and dreams alive in people who will desperately need B-OM and Kevetrin to survive various cancers in the future. He should be proud of the work he has accomplished despite having the deck stacked against him. He has poured his time, energy, and personal money into developing this precious pipeline.