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Avocado, Why spread or propagate a false statement made by our belovd Bill on this message board? Why?
VirTra DID NOT hire any pumping firms to pump the stock price. Listen to the cc again or read the transcript. Heck, call Larry if you want clarification. Bob said in crystal clear terms they hired some help with marketing and sales OF THEIR SIMULATORS. OF THEIR PRODUCTS. He did not say they hired companies to help pump or push or promote the stock.
Please share with us Twister the nuggets to which you referred. Thx.
I probably do agree with that. Given last years Q2/3/4, it is difficult to find much fault with a stock price of 2.25. Now that last years Q1 drops away, the trailing PE is quite high and PS is roughly 2. So that is a decent valuation.
That said, we are now almost halfway through 2017. It seems reasonable to expect EPS to be in 14 to 20cent range and revenue to be in the 17 - 20mil range. So at some point within a year, it will again be pretty easy to make a fundamental case for why VTSI should be higher (assuming it stays at 2.25).
A 20% grower with so much cash on the bal sheet should easily command a PE of 20. So I don't think we have much to worry about right now.
Hi RStevens. No I do not want to publish it at this time and before doing so would need to talk to the other "signers." It isn't anything mysterious or earth shattering. Simply a strong reminder to VirTra CEO and BOD that they need to run the company for the benefit of the shareholders. Overall we feel they are doing a very good job of running the company. We simply had a few points we wanted to make with respect to shareholder liquidity, value, share buyback, and BOD owning few shares.
The tone of our letter was upbeat and positive because we do believe the CEO has done and is doing a good job.
If there is a need for a future letter, then I think we would be really happy to solicit more shareholders to stand behind it. And if there is a need, we might consider doing it in a public way via a press release. At this time I really hope it will not be necessary.
From the numbers released today and information stated in the cc, I think 2017 will be another very strong year for VirTra and also for VTSI.
Bill, They did not hire two "pumper firms" as you implied/stated. They hired a couple marketing companies to help with their businesses marketing and sales efforts. Nothing to do with pumping the stock which is how I read your statement.
I liked the meat and potatoes part of the cc, clearly each of the next 3 quarters will be better than year ago and clearly the annual revenue and likely net income will be up significantly verses 2016. That was stated as clearly as you will ever hear it stated during the Q&A.
People selling today are not in tune with what is happening and the buyers are. Awesome day to add significant shares.
The only answer I didn't like was with regard to the buyback. That was non-sensical.
If this is Chinese water torture for you then you should sell.
My guess is this is a bad time to sell if you are willing to hold for another 3 - 6 months. Just guesses and torture isn't worth it.
I will likely buy some of your shares if you do sell! I enjoy the pain.
Overall a nice PR and good first paragraph and explanations.
Only two bush league things - they need to make sure the PR and actual report get released at the same time - they should not have compared Q1 to Q4 and used the word sequential.
They can't have it both ways. Either all that matters is full year results or it IS fair to compare on a quarterly basis.
They did have a nice cash build during the quarter, up about $800k to $4.5million.
Well, at least better than the 3 previous quarters.
Also nice to see a return to profitability.
As expected it pales in comparison to year ago.
Let's hope they say some good things about Q2/3/4.
At least now all the forward comparisons are easy and they should be
able to again achieve 20% YOY growth given the record Q1 order intake.
Stock likely now stuck for 3 months.
I didn't send any questions but did help co-author a letter with several other shareholders where we expressed the following:
- Stressed that one deliverable of a CEO is shareholder value, shareholder liquidity, and (for a company the size of VirTra) increasing institutional ownership.
- Pointed out that other than the CEO, the rest of the BOD own very few VTSI shares and we asked that they start buying some.
- Expressed some level of surprise and disappointment that VirTra seemed unwilling to support the stock price by using their approved buyback even the though the stock is far lower now as compared to when the buyback was approved.
Together, the several of us that worked on the letter own a bigger chunk of the company that the CEO and his family.
CEO and BOD need to start delivering on shareholder value in an active and visible way. Let's hope tomorrow we see signs they are listening.
Possibly but seems unlikely.
But why do it by issuing shares rather than just writing a check?
That is the correct question to ask lorema and no one anywhere has any plausible answer.
And an even simpler question is ..... Why didn't they just use available cash to buy back the Advent shares?
With $7mil due soon, big milestone payments in 2018, and Novartis paying for half Ph2 and 100% of Ph3 for emricisan AND the fact they have $80mil in cash on hand right now.....why why why?
I still like the company and stock for the rest of the year and beyond but this does knock Mentos down a few notches in my book.
Like I said, I haven't a clue.
That said, I am happy there is at least some action and interest.
Gee whiz, with all this volume it is almost like we own a real stock.
To me, this now smells like something pretty big is going to happen soon. Maybe days, maybe weeks, maybe 2 months max. There is no way this goes from literally 6,000 shares per day for months on end to someone flipping a switch and we have volume of 100,000 shares per day.
Twister made a good observation in an earlier post. No one on this message board (me included) knows anything.
Sure does frustrate me though that there are so many willing to sell....unless it is the same 5,000 shares being churned for some other sort of nefarious reason.
Oh the mysteries.
You make good points. I disagree with you about engineers. I am one and I could put out fluff with the best of them and sell like a madman when I had to.
The issue I have with VTSI is that with a proven track record of 20% growth, Net income that is greater than 10% of revenue, net cash on the balance sheet, and strong forward prospects.....the company is worth more than its current enterprise value. It deserves the same multiples as a company like Taser. Heck, it deserves even higher multiples.
Give VTSI a similar PS and/or PE and/or EV/EBITDA as Taser and you have a $8 to $10 stock today! Pretty simple really...which company's stock will perform better going forward? Obviously VTSI.
And I added as well....7.30, 7.20, 7, 6.90. 6.77. Sort of tiring. It really makes no sense. Simply computer trading and momentum garbage.
That was the best reply ever Bill. I'm still laughing!
Hopefully people are smart enough to understand the difference between orders and revenue.
Record orders in Q1 simply means that it is likely that Q2 and Q3 are strong, likely quite a bit better than the year ago Q2 and Q3.
On Monday, May 15th, VirTra will be announcing Q1 results. And those results will be compared to a very strong year-ago Q1.
Switching subjects.....wasn't it nice to see volume yesterday. That was what should be a "normal" amount for a day, a little over 1% of outstanding shares!
After pondering a bit more, seems obvious this is not the company buyback for multiple reasons: in blackout period, too much volume as it would have exceeded the %limits for daily buys, and no way would the company have burned 30% of the buyback in one afternoon.
I also have a hard time believing anyone wants "in" before Monday's earnings release. Just about no matter how good it is going to be it will be worse than the year ago Q1. Last year's Q1 was roughly $6mil revenue and $2.4mil in net income.
It also irritates me that so many were willing to part with shares today at sub-2.50 prices.
So I obviously still have no clue. Probably just a person or money manager or small fund starting to buy some shares for the long haul. It will be interesting to see if any follow-through tomorrow.
It feels like a buyback but my guess is that it is not.
Buyback timing/window is same as for insiders and right now they are blacked out until market open on May 17th.
Yes lorema, that was THE key comment in the entire cc. I found it interesting that Mentos went out of his way to say it. It was obvious this was the case since every preso since late Dec said Novartis owned it as of Ph3 start. But I don't think many people understood it.
Man o man I love the Conatus business model. Do the initial development and research and some Ph1 and Ph2 work, then sell the drug to the big boys to finish and take to market with a rich royalty stream and milestone payments back to Conatus. It will be interesting to see what they pursue next.
I suspect we will all look back at today and wonder why we didn't buy even more shares.
Whenever I see that sort of thing my first reaction is to completely dismiss the ticker and never look at it again.
While a good IR guy does have a bit of "promoter" in him, I think that label does a did-service to the good IR guys out there.
All VirTra needs is someone to put/tell the VirTra story out there in front of as many potential investors as possible. They are not doing this.
A good IR guy would also make sure the CEO is communicating well with shareholders and potential shareholders.
A good IR guy should not reply to shareholders by saying crap like "well, you know we really don't have control over that." Or "it is difficult for insiders to buy."
I think I will change my moniker to Twister Jr.
I don't have a clue.
My guess is that a large seller simply wants to get rid of shares and isn't in a big hurry and doesn't want to crash the stock too much.
What really bugs me is that the company has decided not to support the stock by using their share buyback program. The stock is 30% lower now than when they approved the buyback yet they refuse to use it?
If you're not going to use it, then cancel it. If you still want the option then tell us why you are not using it now.
And why isn't the CEO and IR guy out beating the bushes to tell the VirTra and VTSI story to potential buyers of the stock? Why?
bborden, Did you read the article in the link you posted? It says short interest increased from 500shares to 3100shares.
So this is actually pretty bullish if you ask me. Only 3100 shares are shorted! That is about none.
You guys are really ill-informed "thinkers". I've been through at least 7 different reverse splits. Most have been extremely good for shareholders. HSKA for example, Otix Global for example.
Why do you try to scare people? It is silly. Nothing anyone says on these boards can influence a stock.
If you think a rs is so terrible, then sell and move on to something else. The fact you remain here says it all.
Why did you think it would get beat up at all?
There really are a lot of positive articles floating around out there. Can only help.
Nice to see a wee bit of a bid yesterday.
Hi Joe, Yes, probably late this evening. Right now I'm off to one of my apartment properties.
We should get a PR this week or early next week announcing the date for the Q1 earnings release and day/time for the cc. My guess is either May 12 (Friday) or May 15 (Monday).
They really do need to do something to drum up some buyers for the stock. They have actually been in the news a lot and issued some really good informational PRs like the record order one.
But what they obviously haven't done is talk to their friends and neighbors and coworkers and golf buddies and and and AND tell them to buy shares! Just one single buyer would help at this point. If I were the IR guy, I would be embarrassed. If I were the CEO I would be embarrassed. If I were joe bloe employee I would be embarrassed. But I'm not.
Thanks for posting that link. I watched all 24 minutes. Not sure what to think.
I give up. You missed the entire point of my reply.
Here in central Wisconsin, every 7 year old boy and girl has already fired a real gun, often times 30-06 deer rifles or .223 plinkers or 12ga shotguns. You can legally hunt deer as a 7 year old if in the company of an adult.
And the above paragraph is exactly why the Gander Mtn effort failed and why Mod Round can never work in a state where everyone can go and shoot real guns whenever they want.
Put these MR sites in big city tourist destinations.
EVERY SINGLE TIME our family hosts friends and family members from China, guess what EVERY ONE of them wants to do immediately...yes, shoot my guns! So we grab a couple handguns and rifles and shotguns and some targets and clay pigeons and go out to the "back 40" and have a blast and take about 1000 pictures. The other thing they will do for hours is stare at the guns on the racks in the local gun shops. They are in awe of the fact that any US Citizen can walk in and buy them.
USA USA USA
Bill, There is tons of money out there. MR will have no issue raising as much as they want. VirTra is not in a mess. They get paid CASH for each system sold to MR. While this 10k is bad, if they had about 4 locations they would be break-even on a cash flow basis.
MR is just a distraction for VTSI shareholders. Best case, it gooses earnings a bit in a few years. Worse case, it costs VirTra nothing. It is a reasonable thing for VirTra to support. Their agreement is heavily skewed in favor of VirTra.
That is why I think this works well in Las Vegas but not so well in Peoria, AZ. They need to tweak their format for sites like Peoria, or simply not open there.
Other places the current format would work great are Tokyo and Shanghai and Beijing and Singapore. In the US, maybe Reno, Dallas, Manhattan, Wash DC, Seattle.
No Bill, we (me and you) are NOT Modern Round shareholders. VirTra does own about 9.7% of Modern Round but that is a tiny stake worth less than nothing. Furthermore, there are 3 individuals who own about 90% of Modern Round. Actually the one guy that owns 80% is THE owner, the only one that matters. It is his baby.
You are also very wrong about Las Vegas. It will open. The owner of Modern Round can either pony up more money himself or raise it externally and I am sure this has already happened. And yes, the result might be to dilute VirTra's stake a bit but I would argue that is ok. And dilution might not be allowed due to the leverage.
There are also some pretty promising signs with Modern Round if you read the 10k. I also believe the most promising sign is that they were/are smart enough to study and tweak what is happening in Peoria so as to improve results at the upcoming new locations. In other words they are being very cautious in their rollout. But it is proceeding.
My only point is that it isn't all gloom and doom though if Mod Round stock was freely traded I would not be a buyer.
Mod Round 10k came out Friday. "Dark" is a good word for it. My uninformed opinion is it is a disaster with respect to the amount of revenue generated by the Peoria site. I would not be able to nail the doors shut fast enough if I was the owner. Be happy we are VTSI owners and not Modern Round owners.
That said, a LV location could do really well with this upscale format. Peoria - not.
It is really difficult for me to believe that no one wants to buy VTSI shares at this level. I added 2k today which is only slightly better than none. But something.
At this point, it seems clear the company will not be using their authorized buyback. Seems they are more focused on niche acquisitions. Just a vibe and a guess.
I started buying some shares today. Just a start and I'm happy to be a shareholder. Stock does seem destined to trade lower before higher but no one can know for sure.
Thank you for the detailed explanation dia76. That is very helpful.
I will never understand enough about the science in order to make a judgment but that will not stop me from buying some shares.
Although in thinking about it further, it sort of sounds like "the poor mans cancer treatment". Not a bad thing since there are many more poor cancer patients and potential patients than rich ones.