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bought sds afterhours 39.44.
Probably going to have my head handed to me again.
new moon top? Will 1630 be the top, or are we first running to 1670 next week?
Not going to try and milk the position, will take profits quickly.
2% gain on spx, 4% drop on sds, maybe start buying at sds 38.7?
I will not short on friday until the close, and then only if all fits for a short. This could be the mother of all bull traps, or mother of all bear traps.
BTW, I have spent 8 years of my life traveling in the developing world. I thank the universe every day that I was born a middle class white male in the USA. We are the privileged class in the world.
Do remember, the market will gap up friday, then pull back a little for a few minutes, then roar up more. Unless employment numbers really surprise, and then who knows?
If we break 1630, then could be a melt up.
Before computers, i would wait for a big up day to start shorting the market off this kind of pattern.
Will seriously consider shorting late friday if we do go up more than 2%.
Then again, 1630 could be all she wrote, typical that markets will do what makes the most people lose money, so the few can get more and more and more.
BTW, you could look at current pattern as a bullish flag formation, upside target 1800.
Looks like europe market up 3% across the board, maybe our market will be up Friday?
1660 is a likely target, even 1675 is possible. i will short at those levels, as eventually earnings will point to a slow down in the economy, which the central banks can not do much about.
nothing is certain, but gold at 1320 sure looks like a good bet. 1400 is also likely this month or next.
My gut says after a strong rally, gold will tank again before making a final bottom. How low and when is not clear.
If instead it falls back to 1180 short term, I would buy more gld.
seeing more reasons into early next week to be long than short, and strong trends tend to last a lot longer than anyone believes. Of course, the pattern will be clear friday, too late to catch the first wave of buying or selling.
A big up day friday could be the top, lets see if they can push it up into the close if that happens. A high tick at the close, and i short heavily.
of course, instead we will tank friday, and all the traders willing to short this week will look like geniuses.
BTW, past rallies have almost all had a stronger second rally than we have had so far, so history would lean to the spx 1650/1670 before it is time to short
Price structure suggests more upside for gld short term. Longer term, it could fall hard and fast with the market this fall, so will not hold my position too long.
bottom picking is dangerous, but i do ok with it.
we filled the gap from Monday, and then rallied into the close, still bullish.
drop below 1600 tomorrow, and the rally is over. More likely we rally tomorrow, inside day, and then market makes up its mind on Friday.
If had to be long or short, would be short. Instead am not doing anything. Before may, I would have shorted this setup, but am shy of shorting after this years results doing that.
I have noticed in the past where the market does exact opposit of the last year. As in, we bottomed early June last year, so maybe we top late may this year?
If we close under 1600, pretty sure we fall to 1525 quickly.
Am feeling more and more like shorting, but holding out until wednesday.
Good point, watch for when the gains and losses in a day, best when up in afternoon more than morning.
I should probably be short, but was burned too many times being short first 5 months of the year.
My gut says they get squeezed more, at least until wednesday. Still enough fear in the option players during a rally to support more gains.
GLD looking good, but still could get one more drop to the low of friday before a major rally. Again, no opinion on longer term, although I can think of more reasons to own than not to own.
If you are a super bear, we are really close to a short, spx 1630.
I still think we run to 1650 before a sell off, and I plan to short around then, if all else fits.
Gld looks very strong, 125 and then 130 are next resistance levels.
Trying to guess the long term trend of any asset is tricky, although the only asset they can not make more of is Real Estate, so it is a good long term asset, but only if you buy at the right time.
Gold looks about as despised as it can be, and the chart is so overextended on the downside, that a bounce is a good bet.
I remember uso doing sort of the same thing a few years back, and i bought and it went up 10% quickly.
I have not made a lot of money trading all the time, but waiting for a pattern like gld is forming now, and making a big bet, has made me good money.
Another high early july, early august, or end of august and then a bear is a good bet.
Am going back to my strategy of only taking the "sure" trades, like gld right now, as is better to miss 3 out of 4 ops, and not lose any big money when the op goes bad.
We are in the middle of the spx range: 1525 and 1700, so am not trading for now.
Natural disasters are not a major influence in the long run, unless they are really big. Katrina, the one on the east coast this winter, etc are not big enough to change the economy long run.
Hurricaines will raise the price of oil, and gold, short term.
great graph! I do not see gold as a long term investment, but short term is oversold and due for a bounce. Actually is tough to know how good a bounce this will be, or how bad gold will perform the next couple years.
Hurricanes will make oil prices higher, which is positive for the market. It stimulates the economy, as new buildings need to be built.
In the end, natural disasters, unless really big, dont have much affect on the market in my experience.
The 3 week moving average for the CFNAI is a good predictor of when a recession has started. The numbers come out the last week of the month for the previous month.
Latest reading is -.43. When it gets under -.7, is a recession.
Got under that value in Jan 2001 and Feb 2008. Interesting is it started being negative in June 2007 and July 2000, not bad times to sell stocks.
It got negative in march of this year, or people were able to see that in late april.
I think we may be in the last rally of this bull market, could be terrible drop soon. Not a good time for long term investors to buy stocks. I should probably as a trader be heavily short right now, but waiting for a few more up days to go short.
Is going to be 100 all weekend, after the same yesterday. We normally only get 12 days when the temps get over 90 in a full year, today is the 6th so far this year. We had the 2 coldest summers the last 2 years, so we are due for a hot one this year.
So, is the weather or the stock market easier to predict?
If you look at all previous tops, the spx runs back to the upper bollinger band, which in my work is at 1660 or so, before the biggest drop.
ON the other hand, we worked off the oversold condition, and the market is a little overbought, so a big decline is possible. Oh, and that the spx was not able to get over the falling 21dam or rising 50dma is a worry.
Not willing to bet either way, but gld looks good.
The banks are in more trouble today from derivatives exposure than in 2008. it will all end badly. best to get your money out of dangerous brokers, and a lot of cash on hand at some point.
Gold may collapse along with all assets when that happens, but it will also be the first to come back, like in 1987 or 2008.
if volume decreases all week in gld, even as it goes up, not as bullish and it will not rally over 130, it it can even do that.
If volume expands, then we could run to 142 or even 150, before it falls into another bear correction.
Trading is fun when it is volatile!
not willing to be long this market, but willing to buy gld
After this kind of massive selling, a quick bounce is a sure thing. and a run back to 130 or higher on gld is a good bet.
I have watched over the many years how round numbers mean so much to the press, but not in the market. However, 1600 was resistance, and it could now be support short term. Monday will for sure let us know what is real.
This is the first time in the past year, where gld has been falling steadily from 174 down to 115 today, that the first day of rally had more volume than the previous several days of declines. I think we may have found a major bottom in gold, and could run to 132, or even 142 this summer.
one more observation: spx bounced off 1600, appl held previous low and bounced strong, and the qqq is making new highs for the week, outperforming the spx today. All the above is bullish short term.
McCllelen oscilator numbers are turning positive, and if the vix stays below 17 next week, is flashing a buy signal.
Again, I do not see a rally to new highs, but I also do not count out what nobody here thinks is possible, a rally above 1660 next week.
I will short that kind of rally, in fact will short soon as we get overbought, which could be as early as Wednesday.
There are setups worth trading, I just dont see the current one as something I want to trade. I do think gld is way oversold, due for a decent 5 to 20% bounce.
Enjoy the weekend.
I would not go long, but the 5dma for the trin is flashing a buy signal on the spx, and there is still enough fear in the options arena to power more rally next week.
I did buy gld, looking for 132 this summer. Not a gold bull for the rest of the year, but at some point the precious metals shine again.
GS could be right and gold drops below $1100 and oz later this year.
Smart move to hold your longs. Bumping up against the falling 21dma and rising 50dma. Convergence, divergence, nothing is certian, everything is possible.
I think covering longs now makes sense, not sure going short is the right thing to do.
Best of luck with your positions, whatever they may be. Am waiting for the next clear signal, which will come eventually.
Insanity rules. Never got a solid buy signal, but their is so much fear among the option players today, this rally could go a lot higher.
At first, thought shorting at 1620 was the right thing to do. Now, not so sure.
BTW, qld got to my target of 66, but of course i dumped at 64.6.
Best of luck to all those reading this. Am waiting for a better signal to jump in short or long.
the pattern is not clear, my gut is we only rally back to falling 21dma around 1620 and then maybe retest 1540, for the most bullish case.
Sold my qld for a small gain, is always a good feeling to be right and make money.
Honestly, i do not see enough fear to say this is a solid bottom. I would be shorting if we rally back to spx 1650 or more.
I agree that the fed has no intention of stopping or slowing down QE. They do not care about froth in stocks, look at greenspan in dec 1996 worrying about irrational exuberance. He could have done a lot to slow it down, but did nothing.
China and Europe will decide our fate.
I fully agree that Europe and china are time bombs waiting to go off, the question is when, not if.
RE could be in better shape than you think, I have no opinion on that right now, as is not my expertese.
BTW, the pattern strongly suggests we rally tomorrow, up to between 1599 and 1620.
I agree several aspects of the economy hold great hope for a prolonged economic recovery. The fed is totally the reason for the recovery in RE, holding rates so low. If they had not done QE, the economy would have collapsed in 2011 or last year.
China is the pink elephant in the room right now. If the elephant is calmed down, then we can all dance. If not, then when the processed food gets deposit from the elephant, we are all buried in it.
Life has been good to me so far. Seeing my honey almost every night this past month, lucky in love, not so lucky with money.
I remember how in 2001, the market rallied big time just before July 4th, only to again fall slowly into 9/11.
the market rallied strongly the last couple years around july 4th, but did not 3 years ago, before rallying big time after that.
It all depends on what the central banksters say this week and next, a sorry case for how this market is based on hot wind, not fundamentals.
Is a tricky market to play. We all agree if the ECB announces a QE of their own, stocks around the globe will rally sharply for a couple days, and maybe even more.
My opinion is central banks can put a floor under how bad the economy will become, but in the end it can not make a bad economy good, and that is the case right now.
We broke an important trend line last week, and the market is struggling to get back to that line, and back to the falling 21dma. it will not make it is my opinion.
Cycles, and what are usually good months or days for the market does not work in a strong trend, like how oscilators don't work in a strong trend, as the trend is the most important factor.
However, the last 2 trading days and first 5 trading days of the month are often positive, which is this Thursday and all of next week.
I don't think it will work that way this time, instead expecting we go up into tomorrow, and then down, down, down.
Option players are not turning bullish, so they are not betting this rally will last. they are often right, but often wrong. Why bother to watch those numbers? Laughing, as all the numbers can fool you some of the time, and all the numbers can be right some of the time.
1600 is where I will dump my qld.
rising 50dma is at 1622, falling 21dma is at 1625. these kinds of rallies rarely get back to the 21dma, but often get back to the 50dma.
13dma, which is useful too, is at 1618 and falling.
Why 1100? I can see 1200, 33% decline off the high, but 1100?
Dont think it is as bad so many people make it out to be, but it is a real bad situation. Nothing the central banks can do to make the economy ok, but they can keep the lid on how bad the financial situation will become.
yes, being short is the way to go, and am dumping my longs by the close tuesday.
As always, the best charts I have seen! Full moon madness, could spread to monday, but my gut is we saw a short term bottom, and we have some kind of rally this week that fails.
Am writing a new blog to promote my books, will post when i finally start to post it. Sorry, but will not be about investing, instead about how to have a life full of love.
Past week was not kind to me, but my love life has never been better in my life. Priorities!