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Someone posted that perhaps with the internet, and the open borders that it creates, people are buying in Europe in order to avoid the complications and taxes that might accrue if such action was undertaken in their own countries. This is plausible since Panama, like Switzerland, attracts fairly sophisticated investors that like their privacy.
More importantly, a good many of the trades made in Europe may be viewed more as genuine investments, as opposed to just short term trades, whether it be from a cultural European bias, or the objective mentioned herein above.
The bottom line is that if either postulation is correct, this is decreasing the available float and that is good for the market and the SP. In either case...that is my guess.
1,484,328 shares traded in Germany today vs. 69,000 in USA. Are you joking me?
I'm sorry, I guess the draft that I saw had an eight month window without payments until the rest of the re-fi was finished. I have not seen the final agreement.
I know that on September 23rd the company stated that relief of the LT debt would allow the company to continue to firm up exploration and expand the production capability of the processing plant. I think that will do the most to get them to 10,000 oz./mo. and show an extended mine life. That will help the SP.
Now I am totally confused by your post.
1. The DB deal has no payments for eight months.
2. Gross Profit is defined by Revenue-Cost of Goods Sold.
Unless I am reading everything wrong your analysis makes no sense.
I thought the idea was to take care of the LT debt by forward gold refinancing out of production and use the EBITDA money to expand reserves through explorations and expand the mine to full 5,500 T/D. and complete the heap leach pads.
My understanding is that there will be no formal report. Henriquez publicly stated that the results of the sample tests showed no contamination.
ANAN is now busy with the 14,000+ pages of the environmental impact study on the copper mine that was filed last week. Their tailing pond will be larger than the whole Petaquilla concession. Everybody will be looking at that from now on and Petaquilla will no longer be the "cause celebre" of the moment.
Environmental, financial, and political risks are no longer on the table. Now it is production, reserves, PDI, and the price of gold.
Canada doing great considering the market is closed for Thanksgiving!!!
Anski, There is some news out there that has not resonated on the USA market. If you go back and look at the last ten days or so the volumes in Canada and Germany have been huge. Already this morning trading is above average in Germany.
I have not been able to understand the big lag in the USA. Are these great volumes in Stuttgart, Berlin, Dusseldorf, Munich, and Frankfurt because Deutsche Bank is on board, or is it that Germans tend to invest with a long expectation time line than others?
What bothers me is that perhaps there is something we are missing.
Dates when warrants are exercisable on your Ibox would be useful.
I believe that circumstances are constantly in flux and the company is constantly adjusting to the latest parameters and opportunities.
In order to stop the confusion I have suggested that they only respond to inquiry and publish PR's when they have specific definite answers to questions. Then we get clear information that can be relied up for decision making.
I do not see anyway they can get PDI on its feet in the manner it has been conceptualized in less than twelve to eighteen months. Having said that, I still believe that long term this is where the serious money will be made.
I know that they are planning to build a major highway from Colon to Costa Rica along the northern coast that will open up about fifty percent of the country to development. This would be similar to the coast highway on the southern side of Guatamala exiting Mexico. This would be a huge project and PDI should get a lot of that business. This could be paid for like the railroad expansion in the western USA with alternate sections going to the builders.
Company issued a PR stating that spin-out would not occur until PDI had a substantial number of orders and some venture capital. My guess is that this will not occur for at least another year. The environmental impact study was just filed last week, (14,000 pages), on the copper mine, so that is at least a year away.
I doubt if there will be much more in the way of infrastructure projects from the government until the Bay of Panama is cleaned up, and the subway finished, along with the costera freeway link completed.
MICI Director issued a statement two weeks ago stating that test sample analysis showed that there had been no contamination; he further admonished the environmentalists to stick to the truth and not fabricate stories about this issue that inflame the locals. There will be no further report.
In addition the environmentalists decided to take on the German Company that is doing the canal expansion and attempted to create a work stoppage with a demonstration. The government is tired of the this type of activity. The German company called the police who arrested the demonstrators after beating the crap out of them.
The environmental issue is a dead on as far as Petaquilla is concerned, since the company undertook a large effort to bring in engineers, journalists, and other government functionaries educating them concerning the process and the facts on the ground.
They have again turned over the maintenance program to a new group and the results are encouraging. 93% utilization of the plant in September. The political and financial risks are off the table...so now it is just consistent production the only issue. Although it would be nice to see a 43-101 expanding reserves.
Martinelli has another four years and cannot be re-elected. However, the vice-president has already been selected to run so that CD will remain in power for at least another nine years.
Richard Fifer was a founding member of the ruling, pro-mining and business, party so things will just bet better for all of the Petaquilla subsidiaries. (PDI, Azuero, etc.)
I still believe the really serious money will be made through PDI as the government copper mine and other infrastructure projects are development by the government.
You are right! Unfortunately I invested in PTQ when it was not a penny stock, so this has been my first experience. I do have a good handle on the company, but was disappointed that Torrijos would not give them the opportunity to begin production. But then CD came to power in a land side so all it good for the future.
The psyche of the typical USA penny stock investor/trader is geared to very, very, short term 'fickle investing'. Many do not have the introspection to focus on an investment for more than 48 hours let alone 48 months. They rush from stock to stock based on the many so called "expert" advisory services, but seldom do any deep research.
Once the stock has moved up into the $5.00 range you will see the volume and investments close with investors on other continents.
In a past life I did a research paper on the education and financial stability of the typical penny stock investor and his motivations. It is ingrained in the national psyche of the nation.
Fast food, eat quick, immediate gratification, rush, rush, rush.
JMHO
You can go back to some of the old survey reports that will tell you what they are cutting through now. I believe you can also talk to the operations engineer at the mine and he can explain exactly what they are doing.
Someone dumped 36,000 shares really cheap. Up well in Germany and Canada. Oh well...I wish them luck, but I would have loved to scoop up some shares that cheaply. I think they jumped off the train just at it is pulling out.
With as many shares as turned over today without a drop in share price, I think the stock is doing very well. I believe that those who are buying now will stick with the company for a while. The sellers are probably short term traders that made their 50-70% or so, or have recovered their recent losses, and have moved on. This will reduce the float and make it easier for the stock to become a ten or fifteen bagger in the next year or so. As always, patience will be rewarded.
TODAY'S TRADES 11,699,101 SHARES!!
Stuttgart 608,376
Munich 1,127,472
Dusseldorf 54,600
Berlin 1,316,646
Frankfurt 5,416,886
Total Germany 8,523,980
Toronto 2,783,404
USA 391,717
TOTAL TRADES: 11,699,101
It would appear that Canada and Germany understand the possibilities although the USA traders/investors choose not
to get on the train.
Perhaps, but at times over the years the numbers have varied widely. Similar information is also posted on Market Watch, but then they show insider/management holdings at zero which is not true. I am comfortable with the knowledge that Wells Fargo is a major player. I cannot answer for any of these reporting services as I don't know their sources or management.
The point that I think is germane in this instance is that there are a few, maybe less than twenty, major holders that have in essence removed a majority of the OS from the day to day market.
The large purchases over the last twenty four hours have taken more off the table. As retail investors attempt to jump on board, or off for that matter, the share price can be moved radically in either direction.
Now that the news is good, the trend up to reasonable value can accelerate rapidly since the 'float' is decreased. The large holders have access to more information than the public. It may not be fair, but that is the way the world runs. The fact that most of them have held or increased their holdings in the face of 90% drops in share price from historical highs speaks volumes.
I'm going fishing today...I want to be surprised tonight! GOOD LUCK!! PTQ trading in Germany right now @$0.61 USD
Over 500,000 shares traded already in Germany this morning, up +15% in Frankfurt. Now you can pay your student loan, maybe even cancel some of it if you notify administration before disbursement. Glad you were able to get your shares back before launch.
This could be a bumpy ride, but good news should be coming very soon on ODN and plant expansion.
Frankfurt system has now caught up with trades there. Petaquilla web site and yahoo now reporting almost 9,000,000 shares traded in Frankfurt alone today. I believe that brings us to nearly 15,000,000 shares trade between Canada, USA, and Germany. That should be pretty close to a record day.
One good source CNBC.COM, scroll down under ownership and add up both institutions and mutual funds disclosed there to public. I believe that will get you to around 8MM shares. Other sources confidential.
I already promised to buy you a case of German bier in Germany if it goes to $7.50. We can fly back to Panama on Lufthansa.
Saludos
CI, if Fifer signs your dividend check next year, please return it. I know you wouldn't feel right accepting money from him.
My count today:
Berlin 18,848
Munich 232,635
Dusseldorf 164,700
Stuttgart 470,330
Frankfurt 1,536,426
Toronto 5,334,970
USA 1,758,345
__________
TOTAL 9,516,254
When you take the OS shares and subtract the known big holders whose shares are not in the float, I believe that is about a 10% turnover today. That should also remove a lot of shares from the market since some of the buyer of large chunks were probably LT investors.
Don't sell at $1.00 CI, hold out for at least $7.50 in a year or so.
Sorry to take so long to answer you. Wells Fargo holds at least 8,000,000 shares in their publicly disclosed funds and investment trusts. I am sure they also hold more in their undisclosed Private Client accounts. It would not surprise me if they held and/or control 10%-15% of the OS. It would also be my uneducated guess that DB's Private Client accounts hold another pretty good chunk.
The real float is much smaller than most people think and after today will be even smaller.
You are right...I tried to do it in my head while driving...getting to old for that. However, here is a cast in stone..bottom line forecast for EPS FY 2011 ending May 31, 2011.
Earnings: FY2011 $0.30/share.
Reserves: Up 50% from 43-101's
Guidance: FY2012 $0.60/share, (Production doubles)
Stock selling during this summer for 1X earnings, and .5X 2012 earnings. This analysis is brought to you free of charge and is worth what you are paying for it. HOWEVER, IT IS DEAD ON RIGHT!
CHECK THE LOTTERY NUMBERS! May hit 5% of OS traded today. Already well above that on actual float. News has been out and on wire in Germany for a while already.
Four million shares traded up to now with Canada, USA, and Germany. This could be a nice day. My understanding is that Wells Fargo has about twice that many under their control. I think that Fifer has a lot more also. It is very easy for deep pockets to disguise the actual holders through various foundations and off shore bearer corporations. I have heard, just rumors, that about 20 really big stockholders from Panama are actually involved.
Disclaimer, I have no direct contact with PTQ or any inside information...but you hear things if you listen.
Wells Fargo has a lot more shares than you see in your limited research. Your analysis is dead wrong. Just relax for a little longer and don't sell your stock or yourself short!!
Question...when the earnings/dividend is greater than the share price, do we get the stock for free along with the cash difference, or do we have to put up cash to buy it and then collect the dividend???
REALLY EXCELLENT ERUDITE ANALYSIS!!!
EBITDA should definitely show a profit for the first time confirming the trend of the last four quarters. This is most relevant since the debt service that will still be on the Q1 Income Statement is a big drag on the bottom line.
I don't know about the SP, but earnings are going to "da moon" this whole fiscal year. That you can take to the bank!! See post #3619.
Wells Fargo, with their investments from the various funds and private client groups, has been invested since the $3.00 range and is being very patient. Deutsche Bank will now also be around for another five years with Wells Fargo. I understand that other pending large finance deals will also be long term. Richard Fifer could have sold at levels 8X current prices. These are all "big boys".
Although it would be good to get more institutional investment, those invested now probably know much more than the street and are standing pat. I choose to stand with them for the long haul. God willing, we will be well rewarded.
I have noted on other internet sites there is a consistent drum beat giving out disinformation. 'They have no engineers. The workers are quitting. They can't pay their bills. They can't buy gas for the diesel trucks (?). They are going to be shut down.'
Some people claim to be in Panama on the "inside", and probably have never been there as evidenced by the ignorance of their statements. I don't believe the company has any hand in this, since they are unaffected by share price.
Frankly, I have no experience in penny stocks, maybe this is standard practice. It appears that some 'they' try to push the share price around with small buys almost daily. Long term this has no effect on the SP but, I know some people who have taken advantage of the chaos and added to their holdings very cheaply.
Perhaps the best approach would be to just check the stock quarterly and ignore the thinly traded fluctuations on the short term basis. There is no financial or political risk, and production history takes time to develop. JMHO.
CI, numbers will be out October 15th not November 15th. I think your analysis is correct. A lot of shares being accumulated with no increase in SP. Obviously some are loading up.
"its a question of patience, analysis, and logic"
Exactly! My friends probably have several million shares by now as a group. All the way from $3.00 down to $0.26 over a number of years. We are secure, happy, and laugh a lot at dinners talking about all of the recent hysterics. The gold is there. It is already safe, buried, and secure. The value is going to the sky. We will dig it up and sell it all in good time. Most of us would rather sell it at $2,000.00/oz. in a year or so, than $1,100.00 now.
All of our debt will soon be gone, to be paid off with just a little of our reserves as we dig it up, and no out of pocket cash.
What's not to like????
Fifer is knowledgeable, connected, and secure in his control.
The government is 100% behind us and will probably be in power at least another nine years! Low taxes & plenty of gold!!
Saludos!!
ANOTHER DAY IN THE GREEN!!!!! WHAT A DAY! I CLEARED ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER BEER! LIFE IS GOOD!!! PASS ME A MINNOW!
My headings show 2007,2008,2009 and I am not drinking. OH Well!!
Canada up 3.37% and over 1,000,000 shares, Germany up 4.69%, USA up oo.oooo% so things stay the same. Maybe people in the USA just don't want the stock.
A few minutes ago Yahoo under PTQMF.OB just posted as news the FY2007, FY2008, FY2009 Income Statements with attribution to Edgar Online Financial @1:40PM, Tuesday. Does anyone know what the hell that is all about???
No Balance Sheets, No Source&Use of Funds, and all old date, with the latest being May 31, 2009 the end of FY2009.
Relax...relax...it will be OK. Have another Balboa...go fishing...
don't check the market for another thirty days. Petaquilla will have it's day. Inmet filed a 14,000 page impact study with ANAN this morning, so they will be busy for a long time. Remember the Inmet tailings pond will be bigger than the whole Molejon concession.
I worry we are going to lose you; you are the most entertaining guy on the board. CI is next. 2011 Fiscal or Calender years take your choice, will be good for us. 80,000+oz. and $1,500.00 gold with lower production costs. Big contracts coming for PDI, more gold in ODN...just relax and enjoy the ride!
Have faith in the Administration to screw up the dollar!!