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Huge drama on this end, will tell all when it all ends soon. For now, had my heart taken to the heights of elation not thought possible, then dropped down into despair, then up again into the heights, before once more dropped into the pits of hell.
Sounds like the stock market most weeks!
Cant decide if we only rally to spx 1685 and then die hard, or rally into sept 6th *new moon, full moon was perfect bottom last week
gut says top sept 5th, 1720, original target 2 months ago.
Am home and never happier in my life. May have important news to post soon.
The market hardly fell at all off a seriously negative pattern, very bullish.
But then this rally is getting late, and seaonal patterns suggest important top and big decline soon.
I remember how in 1989 the market kept going up into early sept, then sideway for a month, then the big drop off the news about the deal to go private for UAL fell through. WE could get the same again, or like in many years, the end of august is all she wrote.
VERy little fear in options markets, but we did get a full moon bottom yesterday, very bullish.
Not time to sell the farm and short the market, but will take a small position in qid at spx 1680 or so, if everything fits.
Not watching as closely as before, trying to repeat my 1999 trades when i only did something once every couple months, but made the best money of my career.
market could run big time if all fits, but an important top is coming soon.
Will post at end of day but not during the day from now on.
Thanks for saying hello
Looks like run back to 1680 on spx, but my gut says that is all we get before next wave of selling.
will short at that level.
Then again a big rally to new highs on spx possible into early sept, to shake loose the last of the weak hands shorting.
Market loves to make the most people lose money.
Been off on an adventure with my sweetheart, love is all that really matters.
but for those who care about the market, am getting a soft short term buy inside an intermediate sell signal still going on.
If we rally into Thursday, I short the market again, buying qid. Appl is ripe for a fall, watch out Isaac Newton!
another way to invest in gold, other than gld? Am looking at short term investments, long term investment in either is actual metal.
The usual top for a several year rally is a broadening top like in 1989-1990, or a parabolic rise like in 2008, 2000, or 2007.
A sure top is when you get over 2% variation in price day after day. Then the bull is for sure over. That happened in july-aug 1987,jan to march 2000, and june to oct 2007.
Party on like it 1999! Naz doubled in value the last 8 months into March 2000.
Party on like it 1999! Naz doubled in value the last 8 months into March 2000.
Everything is an illusion, down days do not exist in the fed prime the pump reality.
Your computer must be having a glitch.
I said could be island reversal set up, and today has broken the uptrend since the bottom end of june.
I will buy gld at 116.
Gold got back to falling 50dma, if it gaps down tomorrow, we get an island reversal and it collapses quickly.
Double botton coming soon, on less volume? Sets up major buy signal, especially if all you read is doom and gloom, more pain coming, etc.
That kind of easy set up says sell the farm and buy gold. We should all be so lucky.
Longer the trend, more important the break.
My experience says we go sideways and then back up to lower band to signal sell signal.
let us know if you update this chart, thanks
When energy prices soar, expect the end of a bull market. NOt saying can not go higher short term, but the top is close. Of course, been crying wolf since January, so would not listen to my advice if i was reading this.
Weekly sentiment is at "irrational exuberance" levels, and daily options are not, but are somewhat too bullish short term.
Price pattern suggests higher prices, we have full moon madness tonight (full moon is early am tomorrow), so a top is probable monday or we put in the top last week.
bottom line: Not time to sell the farm and short, but not a good time to be heavily long. Remember markets often make there biggest moves at the end of a rally, or the beginning of a rally. corrections usually take time to form.
That is why I sold all my gold! Will buy gold when market bottoms in the fall.
Bought some sds, have orders to buy more tomorrow, and will be heavily short if we go up at all tomorrow, even if goog and msft are dragging down the market right now.
Probably smart investment, dust looks hot. I expect gold to drop along with the market the next couple months, but eventually it will be time to buy gold, short bonds, and buy stocks again.
Looking for Oct for the bottom, funny how sell in may actually works.
How soon before Google $1,000? Headline on yahoo finance page this morning. I predict it will hit 1000 around the time appl hits 1000,although I am a big bad bear on the market.
Never got a solid sell, but I think the top is in. Watch for a down day tomorrow, and if the market rallies up into the close, short.
Top could be in today, or it will come in by early next week. Market very overbought, a drop back to rising 21 and 50dma, around 1649 is the smallest correction, before one more rally to test todays top, maybe end of first week of August?
Then again, today could have been all she wrote, and we go down, down, down. I am looking for 1480 before the next major buy signal.
Dumped my gld at 125.2, could be all she wrote for this rally.
Wish I was heavily short the market, but waiting for the close tomorrow, or friday to short.
gold makes no sense to me. I have traded it for 25 years, and probably would have done better if I had put my money in CD's!
will buy more gld if we get a major bottom, otherwise just watching, watching. Last bottom was so obvious a selling climax, and got the nice retesta few days later. Lets see if recent lows hold on this drop, or today was just a one day event, and gld runs to 130 soon.
I expect some more weakness into tomorrow then a rally into friday. Full moon was the top in May, full moon on monday, so friday could be the top.
Am still looking to short later this week, and sell my gld soon.
Could be setting up a 2 day decline, but when the market gets overbought and keeps going up, like it has this past week, that is super bullish.
Finally getting some fear in options, but not enough to signal a sell.
Am still bullish on gold short term
Getting very over enthusiastic numbers on the weekly sentiment. Says we are super close to a top. If the options numbers were not so strange, would be heavily short already.
Might start taking a short position monday, and add to it as the week goes by. Will think about it, and let everyone know at some point. For now, a major top is coming by the end of the week is my best guess, although a small correction followed by another rally into early august is another possibility.
Weekend almost over, hooray! Been working all weekend fixing stuff before the love of my life moves in. I took care of sick and abused animals as a volunteer for 20 years, a woman, no matter how high maintenance, is easy compared to that!
Had order to buy sds at 38.3, but have pulled it. Might be good for a drop on Monday, but I think we make a new high by the end of next week, and so dont want to be short.
Super low numbers on ISEE, which means a lot of fear on part of options players, which probably means higher prices into options expiration next friday.
enjoy your weekend.
Closed my afterhours buy on sds, will try and buy some tomorrow if we rally in the morning.
We either go up big tomorrow, setting up the top, or sideways into next wednesday, then a couple big up days into the options expiration to set up the top.
Economy not doing great, earnings will not be blow off good, so a top is coming. However, i agree we could rally until early august, so not selling the farm and shorting until I see a real solid short term sell signal.
Thanks for your posts.
trying to buy some sds in afterhours at best price of regular trading. if not filled, will buy a few tomottow if we go up at all in the morning.
Still see higher prices next week, but could be wrong,so starting to take a short positions, slowly, carefully.
Weekly sentiment says end is near, so we just need one more bit up day to end the rally.
What me worry, with big ben at the helm!
I would be shorting heavily at the close, but the options numbers look like on a day the market is down big time, not up. This says the rally has more to go.
Am happy with my 25% in gld, bought under 116,, so far so good. See 126 or 130 by next week, will sell then.
gld up on strong volume, momentum chasers time to buy?
Am not shorting aferhours today. not sure short term what market direction is, but looking more like upside tomorrow. Maybe down on friday?
Up into end of next week looks most likely now, the trend is your friend!
Sold my sds that i bought afterhours yesterday just now for 38.66. Small profit.
Dont like the high trin, says tomorrow will be up. High trin during a rally is a buy signal, during a major correction, does not work.
Plus, strange how bearish the option players are, which is short term bullish.
waiting for a better signal to short, but am looking to short when time is right.
Should have my head examined, but put 20% of my money into sds afterhours at 38.5. will sell on any drop tomorrow. Still have 20% of my money in Gld
If not for past 6 months, would have shorted heavily today. I bet we drop in morning back to 1639 even, but I think the money is to be made on long side for the next couple weeks, so not doing anything this time.
5dma of the trin giving a sell signal. Last time it did that during a rally was on June 13th, and the market did not correct at all.
Thanks for the info, it does seem to move the market. Still, if we get a massive positive tick at the close, may take a small short position.'
NO top on the new moon, says the trend is strong. Insanity rules for now.
Well, 1654 is resistance from June 18 high, can it stop this rally?
Like to see some kind of sell signal at the close to short. Too much fear still in option numbers, so my gut is to sit and watch for now.
glad i covered my short, for a small loss, would be a much bigger loss today. At least making a little money with gld.
Will post if I buy sds afterhours on a sell signal, but does not look like a top, even a short term one, at this time
looks like a bottom in tlt. Rates coming back down short term. When everyone agrees something is not longer a good investment, buy.
Was not watching, or would have bought tlt on friday. Have gold, lower rates will help gld, and like bonds, everyone hates gold right now.
Will short the spx soon, not sure what level. Think we might just get to new highs, to give maximum pain to the shorts. Not seeing any serious sign of a top, alghough we will be maximum overbought starting tomorrow. But stocks go up when overbought and down when oversold. Like the past 7 months.
I still think this is a breakout, and even though I am super bearish, am not holding a short for now.
On the other hand, AA has gone down after every earnings the past year, so who knows what happens next?
We broke the downtrend off recent highs, short term anything is possible, but looks like new highs for spy, even a lot higher than people think.
markets are not logical short term. Eventually we top out, so probably shorting at any level now is smart move, but i instead sold my sds for a small loss at 39.22 having bought it afterhours friday for not much more.
sometimes, better to take a small loss than suffer a big one. I am looking to short again at spx 1675 or so. Probably means todays high is the top.
At least I still own gld, bought below 116 this time.
Weekly leading economic indicators are declining, and have been flat or declining for 6 months. Normally, the market actually closely follows those numbers. This is the first time in 15 years i have followed them, that the market went up big time with bad numbers.
The CNFAI 3wma is at -.43, below .7 is a recession. However, unless that monthly number comes in much lower next month, we are still a couple months away from a recesssion.
Last time it got under -.7 was february 2008. It then got the unheard of -4% in January 2009, and got over -.7 by june 2009.
The leading weekly indicators got to -30. an insane number, in Sept 2008
I am no genius, but the world economy is fragile, and we are likely about to enter a recession in the US. Not good for stocks.
Central banks pumping all the money they can, but will not solve the problem
I shorted too soon, but what else is new? Still, more downside is likely before any more rallies.
A few thoughts:
Short term sentiment negative enough to fuel a rally for the next 2 weeks.
Major top on July 17th in 1998 and 2007, so precedent for that time frame.
Longer term sentiment still on a sell from January, and short term is getting frothy. Not good for daily trading, but is a major warning sign.
Last, the pattern looks like the top in Feb to april 2011, which means one more quick 2% drop, maybe from higher levels, then a final rally to a new high. We are bumping up against some major resistance, but fed is pumping, so path of least resistance is higher.
Any major negative news, and the rally is done. However, small negatives can be positive short term, when the trend is up again.
I am short, looking to get out if I can with small gain.
Is one persons opinion, nothing more.
BTW, anyone screaming sell in June 1999, would have been underwater in tech stocks for almost 18 months, as they still doubled in the last 9 months of their insane rise.
I am short, but know that anything is possible in this market, and a run to new highs, even 1800 is possible before reality bites. Saying that, still see lower prices next week.