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Panamanian Banks generally are not "international banking institutions", although one of them opened a branch in another
country last week I believe I read somewhere. There is of course no Central Bank or FED and local banks are very conservative. 30% down for a foreigner buying a condo. That is why banking crisis did not affect Panama. Even the Sanford branch stayed solvent in the big Ponzi scandal.
Frankfurt up 9.97%, Canada 7.02%,US 0.0%!
I am showing www.petaquilla.com web site down. Can anyone else get it?
Germany was up 7% a little while ago. My investment philosophy has always been long term. Macro look at future, a year or two DD, and then dollar average investment and a lot of Tums. I was at Wake's Babcock in the 1970's and took a year to decide if Bic could make razors as well as throw away pens.
Been in Petaquilla since early 2006 and looked at it since 2004.
Feel very confident that it will achieve it's potential. From all I have seen and what I know of their plans, I believe this will grow to a large company with work in many areas. Sort of like the way Martinelli and Price have grown their operations.
Panama has 7% growth, lots of money, and huge barriers to entry if you tend to hurt existing local companies and government plans. (No Wal-Mart to compete with Martinelli's holdings for example.) PDI is the real future and Petaquilla Minerals, Ltd. is just the fuel for the engine. There will be only about fifty million shares and lots of infrastructure contract.
ABOLISH THE IRS HAVE A NATIONAL SALES TAX AND THAT'S ALL!!
My proforma workup gives me $0.25 EPS after DB payment, taxes, royalties to Panama Government, etc.. However, as exploration costs decline, and heap leaching comes on line @65% recovery rate, it looks like we can climb up to your $0.35 EPS rate by the end of FY2011.
IMO the price of gold will be nearer $2,000.00 by then than $1,300.00. Ergo I will still be able to get my $7.50/share target that all of you laugh about. Especially with the increased life time of the mine as reserves are factored into the equation, and the real value of PDI is realized.
Now we have begun to try to figure out tax implications, so that we can diversify in September 2011 without getting killed by the revenuers!
I am not familiar enough with the regulatory requirements to be able to speak to the time frame for properly establishing the actual ODN reserves with SEDAR & SEC. However, I do know that they are preparing to strip the overburden, spending a lot on assaying last quarter, and exploration expenses are running at a nine million dollar per year rate. You don't do that if you are not sure of what you have available. Also, if they have a seven year mine life at 2,200 T/D why would they engineer a 5,500 T/D expansion?
Only because there is much more gold.
You are right. Over on stockhouse a lot of speculation but very little understanding about what is happening or what is even possible. PTQ wants to prove up their reserves through ODN to get a twenty year mine life established and reserves over two billion dollars.
They already have the road engineered to bring the ore from ODN to the processing plant that is only twenty kilometers away. In fact they mentioned that in one of their publications. ODN and the other concessions are full of gold and cannot be separated from PTQ.
There is no where to process it even if they could buy it and the government would never allow the sale or permit another plant in the area. Just a lot of BS.
Also, a lot of scuttle butt about selling the entire PTQ holdings.
Again just a lot of meaningless talk. You can see on CNBC that another large bloc stockholder has taken a position in the last thirty days. Those who have a large interest in Panama have no intention of selling the golden goose. There will be no management changes of substance and certainly no liquidation or sale. We can take that to the bank!
Market up, strong volume early in Germany.
If you take the 56.2% increase in throughput from the last PR and extrapolate that with Q1 revenues you get the twenty-three million revenue for Q2. I am sure they will divulge the October production numbers at the AGM; they will probably tell us how much they have poured for the quarter since the meeting is now at the end of the month at November 29th. They have made such disclosures before.
I was wrong about them moving the AGM date for Thanksgiving. It falls later this year so they have actually moved the meeting to Monday after the the four day Thanksgiving Holiday weekend.
If the price of gold increases as the FED devalues the dollar, or even if gold holds at current levels, we will know what the Q2 numbers will look like within 42 days. We will have enough information from the disclosures at the meeting concerning expenses, refinance,Oro de Norte, etc. that it will be easy to do a proforma Income Statement and be very close to the January 15, 2011 official filings for Q2.
The bottom line...we will know in seven weeks what the future holds! We should be well over $1.00/share by the end of November. If they disclose October production at the end of October we could see a major move within two weeks.
Projection is $23,000,000.00 Revenue for Q2. If that is achieved without the debt service overhang it could be an awesome quarter. We will know a lot more at the AGM. If production and grade have up through October there will be a huge jump in SP.
Perhaps a lot of people no longer have stakes and are afraid that the stock will gap up or take off Monday; they will be left behind.
I really don't think it makes any difference long term if it opens at $0.70 or $0.45. The plant is running smooth now and a lot of money is going into trenching and stripping in Oro de Norte.
The changes on the concession are obvious.
With QE2 now coming from the FED we don't want to be too anxious to sell our gold. It may go up in value another 25% in three to six months. That is a nice investment return in and of itself!!
I think the question can be clarified with a simple phone call. I believe that throughput and pourings are different measurements.
There has been trouble with mechanical maintenance over several months, but they claim that is now resolved.
I think we will get a production up date at the AGM.I would like to have seen higher production, but don't forget we are getting a lot more for the gold everyday. I would expect 18,000 oz. for Q2.
There is a lot of effort to bash the company right now. Some of the statements reveal a really naive reading of the Q1 reports. (i.e. Who can't understand the requirement not to capitalize beyond allowable periods? Wages and other costs go up with increased effort, hiring, and expansion through exploration. International travel is very expensive.)
All in all I am not concerned about the future of the project, and I know there is plenty of money on the sidelines, should next week provide a buying opportunity now that several major issues have been successfully dealt with by management. Some keep calling for independent analysis of the company...what do they believe Deutsche Bank just completed with a favorable result??
I have no idea short term where the share price is going. If it drops to $0.30 or so, on some panic selling, we'll just jump in and suck up the shares. No worries...Deutsche Bank doesn't make many mistakes and they took a full sixty days to do their DD.
My understanding is that China controls about 80% of the rare earth known sources in the world. I also believe that this is an area for great growth. It is my hope to spin off some PTQ holdings after the audited books are released at the end of August 2011 and diversify with rare earth.
I'll be out of touch this week as my young son will be sworn in before the Supreme Court in session this week, so family celebrations take priority. He is the last one. With his three sisters that gives us one Doctor B.S.M., M.D.,PHD., two Attorneys B.S.M.s,J.D.s & L.L.M.s, and one banker B.B.A., M.B.A. You can imagine the discussions concerning PTQ.
Anyway, I am old and I am done!!
Hasta Entonces,
Saludos
Ricnat, I owe you an apology. I was looking at the wrong spread sheet and thought that $(0.22) was for the quarter and it should have been for the previous four quarters. All in all, I was pretty much expecting the numbers for the quarter, as I knew direct cost had to have increased a lot due to start-up problems.
The best thing that I saw was the large increase in ODN exploration expenditures and assaying. I am sure they are firming up quantities and it looks like they are doing a lot of preliminary work towards development. I am not sure, but I think they might be able to recapture and capitalize some of those expenses latter in the development of the resource.
Even with the reduced cash flow for the quarter they could have probably pumped the figures to show a positive EPS of a penny or two. However, they are obviously taking the longer view as are the real investors. I also caught the million dollars of ore that they mined and set aside for LT production after expansion. For this current quarter they also had a big chunk of ore set aside from last quarter, and, it was high grade.
IMO the current quarter will be a major turning point and when I put together a proforma I get earnings of $0.08 to $0.09/share for the quarter. That of course assumes gold stays up, and there are no breakdowns for extended periods. They should have the rest of the financing in place by the November 29th meeting and a production up date through October or maybe mid November.
Saludos
Much better that I had anticipated. Error on Page 21 Item #24 Subsequent Events, item 1): Should read $40,000,000.00 instead of $4,000,000.00.
Nice cash flow allowing for exploration to continue at the rate of $9,000,000.00/yr.
A&P+Exp.Explor.+Donations, covers $(0.05)EPS.
Nearly $1,000,000.00 increase in stockpiled ore for use in expansion to 5,500 T/D.
Less gold poured&sold at lower sales price means higher return forward/oz.
Large trenching & assaying costs shows more gold is being uncovered. Expect 43-1-101 withing six months.
Source and Use of funds shows efficient effective management of operations and good sound decision making in most areas. Mark-to-Market loss of $3,196,304 on notes will go away with re-finance.
Working Capital deficiencies improved $60,000,000.00 in quarter!
With an increase in production as company ramps up, and the price of gold, company is hugely more viable looking forward!
Very happy camper...will buy an extra chunk if weak hands who do not understand the reports choose to sell on the news!!!
Very satisfied with report as was also Deutsche Band.
Hope you are right, but I think there are a lot of expenses and debt service costs that will really pull down the earnings. Also I believe there were very heavy repair costs. Maybe I am off the reservation, but I think direct costs will be very high also. Better to get all the bad stuff in Q1 since not much was happening in Q1 FY2010. So the year on year comparison will not hurt.
On the other hand, I think Q2 will be profitable and every quarter from then on.
LOL Maybe your not reading the same posts that I am. These numbers will just be some bench marks as we already know production was down, the problems have been corrected, and September was very good.
The impact of the re-finance will not show in the numbers since it occurred after the ending.
I really don't think there is much news, but the subsequent events might be worth reading. Significant news will come at the AGM on the 29th of November when we will get production for October. On the other board they are all concerned because the AGM was moved from 11/22 to 11/29. Probably made more sense not to hold it on Thanksgiving weekend in the USA!
Hasta Luego, as they say in Panama...Monday we will see what the quarter brought. I'm guessing about $(0.22) EPS. Q2 should be
profitable with the debt service gone for the most part and some good production and high dollar revenues with gold so strong.
Regulations require that Quarterly Reports are to be released withing 45 days of the end of the quarter with the exception of the Fourth Quarter when the reports must be audited and released with the Annual Reports within 90 days of the end of the fiscal year.
If not an exception request must be filed. The company has been following these regulations flawlessly for years with the one exception when they asked for an extension of thirty days for the Annual Reports a couple of years ago. The reports are filed today just like always.
Why does everyone get hysterical about something so routine???
Your expectations for the price of gold are much lower than mine. I am convinced that with the leadership shown by the current administration gold will trade in the $3,000 - $5,000 per ounce before 2014. Everyone has as good an opinion as mine. It comes free.
I am willing to take a flyer and hope to hold shares in the low seven digits before the company really takes off. I am relying heavily on Martinelli to get us additional contracts and concessions. I expect in five years anything under $1.00/share will look to have been very cheap.
Saludos
Just talk over lunches. Soon, in a year or so, the company will be cash heavy and begin to make payouts. Everyone is expecting to minimize tax implications and still provide some income. Looks like dividend is the way to go and almost any pro-forma spread sheet will show that there will be plenty of cash available. Too much of a dividend causes most large investors tax problems and they would rather invest in other opportunities within the holding company.
A dollar/share will ensure a decent long term share price. There comes a point where you are in a position like NAT.
Not really, I would take a $1.00/share dividend each year and forget about the share price. I don't expect to ever sell my shares and just steadily accumulate more each month on dollar average basis. The gold will last many years and a lot of other business will come to this holding company over the next nine years.
It would be nice to see $5.00-$7.00 dollars per share to make all the short timers happy. I view gold in the ground as money in the bank with no fees for protecting it. Also, there are no taxes on the increase in value. Now we have a confiscatory political climate and it is getting worse. When the inflation comes,(Did you hear Bernnake this morning?), gold will hold and increase in value. I would rather get $3,000/oz. in a year or so, than sell it now.
My concern was the fiscal risk for continued operations. Now that is off the table and I am a happy camper. I invest for the future in anything that does not rust, rot , or eat!!
LAST SENTENCE SPEAKS FOR ITSELF!
Why do you all pay so much attention to everyone's motivation and manipulation of a few shares of stock one way or another? Why don't the posts relate directly to news and analysis of the Petaquilla properties with specific facts that are germane to the issues? This is like a bunch of grammar school kids trying to decide whether to buy the candy or the ice cream, for a nickle more or less, while worrying that the other kids are going to get a little more.
I hope everyone who is 'in','out','long','short', or a combination of everything makes all the money they ever dreamed possible.
Now can we please get back to the facts, news, and discussion of the company and the issues before it. Has anyone else seen the quarterly report numbers yet??
Saludos
Would you have given one of their subsidiaries a nine million leasing facility if they did not have the rest of the debt refinanced?
My guess is they have that PR in their pocket and will wait to see how the market responds to Q1. If market drops a lot then they can issue PR to stop the drop. Same with latest results on ODN, I bet they have the 43-101 printed and only waiting for a release date and filing.
Where do your numbers come from? Based on audited books from Ernst&Ernst your figures make absolutely no sense. Their direct costs are perfect according to GAAP. What is the point in making such claims? Perhaps you should read carefully the Q1 Reports that will come out Friday and that will help you understand.
Q2 ends 11/30/10,POG 12/10&01/11 have no impact.
I thought that they would release the news that the rest of the LT debt had been refinanced before they made the PDI PR statement. It is possible that they are holding that news to release at the same time the Q1 numbers are out. I cannot imagine that they were able to secure the lease facility for PDI on such good terms if the rest of the LT refi wasn't in the bank. We will see Friday.
When I looked at the dimensional graphics from the earlier analysis it appeared to me that they have quite a bit of ore at the 3+ Gm/T level and I do not believe they have been high grading the mine to distort the numbers. Time will tell.
You have to be retarded to invest in Petaquilla, (oops..intellectually challenged), so the potential investors do
not recognize good news. Hmmm...Let's see...I have been
here for years, so where does that put me???
FOMC just released their meeting notes. The are getting ready to set parameters for entering the market and communicating them to the public. Crank up the printing machines...more fiat money in the pipeline.
It is a little further all the way to Panama City because of the road grid. However, the major development will be towards the west about equally between the mine and the city as the crow flies.
In addition they have broken ground on a new international airport a little further to the west and nearer to the road up to the mine.
The government has definitely closed the idea of expansion towards the east, (hacia Colombia), and in fact killed the idea of broaching once and for all the Darien swamp to like North and South America. The macro plan is to grow toward the west all the way to David over the next twenty years. It is really beautiful country that direction and seven or eight five star resorts will be built along the beaches. No swamps or jungle, just cattle ranches and farms. Sort of like Indiana 150 yrs. ago.
Yes to both your questions. Probably everything is within a 25-30 mile radius. You can look on Google Earth. I believe that a 40 mile circle would take you all the way into Panama City outskirts.
Over one million shares traded in Canada&Germany already today. 15,600 in the USA. Looks like the USA market is becoming irrelevant.
CI, please tell people to sell, sell, and sell some more on the Q1 numbers. We need to buy more shares with that second mortgage money!!! I want to see $0.30 before Q2 numbers in January!!!!
Copper mine infrastructure, road work on highway from Colon to Costa Rica, Infrastructure up grades on off La Espina-Largenta highway, infrastructure upgrades west of Panama City in the Arrijan area to support the development plan that will move Panama City west toward La Chorrera.
Also validates the huge commercial-suburban development of the old Howard Airbase, and the building of the 40,000,000 gallon per day potable water plant in the area that just came on line. Why do you think they built an 18 Kilometer 54" water line from Gatun to out in the middle of nowhere and built the huge water treatment plant?
You really need to go to Panama for a week.
Let's look a little closer at the numbers. Tell me where they are wrong, don't just say they "fly high".
Per 10/06/10 PR @2,444 T/D produced 7,143 oz.
Therefore: 5,500 T/D will yield 16,075 oz. Just do the math.
Per original PR analysis of heap leaching, it is expected to produce 50,000 oz./yr. or 4,167 oz./mo.
16,075oz.+4,167oz.= 20,242oz./mo.= 242,904oz./yr. when all is said and done. Perhaps FY2012. Subtract 20% if you want for whatever, and you still get more than 190,000oz./yr.
Time will tell if my numbers are wrong, but I don't think so. Also there is plenty of gold to support that volume of production.
Your shares, your business, Petaquilla was looking for $2,000,000.00 seed money for PDI, and got a $9,000,000.00 leasing facility.
Do you not think that they have contracts in hand? Or does a conservative bank had out $9,000,000.00 to anyone who wants to build roads and dig holes in Panama?
With 47% of PDI, Petaquilla Minerals, Ltd is well positioned to enjoy a good portion of this success.
Petaquilla LTD is about $40,000,000.00. The Koreans will spend about $5,000,000,000.00 to set up their project and about $1,000,000,000.00 a year to keep it running. If I had a neighbor next door that wanted to dig that big a hole, and I had the only shovel on site with a license to dig, I would be very happy!!!
Hey...the market will eventually get a clue...may take a year or so...so what?? Who do you think controls the government contracts for all the new highways?
Your analysis is on target. I believe with the capacity for processing, as originally engineered into the project, to 5,000 T/D along with the heap leach pads, you will see something closer to 15,000 to 16,000 oz/mo by the time frame you mention.
A lot of people keep talking about s buyout. That is not in the cards IMO as management envisions growing a larger company within synergistic supporting arms. Crank 180,000 to 200,000 oz./yr into your analysis @$1,500.00/ oz. and see how that flies.
Thanks. Been telling the board for nearly six months that the big money will be coming from PDI, but nobody seems to listen. Wait until the new infrastructure budget is presented to the National Assembly and ANAN gets done with the environmental impact study from Inmet and the Koreans! Very lucrative contracts on the way!!
Very good and expected news!!!
Paraphrasing...Petaquilla operates an up-to-date, modern, sophisticated company an demonstrated to the professionals and government directors during this tour.
In spite of these facts, environmentalists launched a totally false propaganda war against the company and inflamed the fears of the local citizens with this brutal and false attack.
Petaquilla Cumple!!...Petaquilla lives up to its promises to the country.
This was a brilliant PR release by the company after they invited the Directors of all the technical organizations to the mine for a two day detailed seminar on operations. Afterward they taped the positive impressions from these officials and experts and ran adds all over Panama efficiently ridiculing the false press releases.
This was a total success and prompted the government to officially admonish the environmental community for making false claims and inflaming the local communities.