ADHD crowd selling on no news...

No problem, momentum crowd were always going to sell

Does not change all the potential positives lined up for the next few months.

Nor does it change the real strength of the FnF businesses revealed by the results

Not as far as I know.

Having seen the press conference today, I am going to start researching...

Rek, I was not criticizing, I appreciate that you think the longer timeline is just the way it is

I also appreciate the role of HERA. IF Bush admin had gone the BK route, then we as stakeholders would be toast. OFC they could not go that route cos the Chinese, Japanese etc states were holders of the bonds -- and would have been outraged at a BK.

Instead, we got the botch-job that is HERA PLUS the bastardization of it by both Bush and Obama administrations. I agree that HERA is the root of all the legal tangles -- or the Bush and Obama interpretations of HERA are...

On incentives of Trump admin:
(i) Settling lets them end-run congress to get FnF onto a course to being government-free (my idea is you set them off in that direction through settlement such that Congress just has tidying-up legislation to pass...) and this avoids congressional quagmire;
(ii) Trump gets credit for "fixing" housing in first 6 months/ 100 days;
(iii) Trump allies get payday which pays off campaign commitments;
(iv) Trump gets deep pocketed backers for next campaign;
(v) the availability, and cost, of 30 year mortgages is lowered giving a boost to the Trump voter base.

There are more, but I think Trump has quite a few reasons to get this down fast...

Ober, there is only the "Tim Howard on Mortgage..." blog left standing -- ie real Tim Howard. The fake ones are still shut down

Here is a link:

https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2017/01/30/a-one-year-retrospective/#comments

Ober, there is only the "Tim Howard on Mortgage..." blog left standing -- ie real Tim Howard. The fake ones are still shut down

Rek, your timeline is a whole lot longer than a settlement based one -- 2-5 years if going through courts, and appeals, process? One reason to take some profits now and again, trade around a little.

BK court has the cram-down option to enforce a settlement -- which explains why Obama administration used to in GM case to ram settlement through. (I bought GM pfd in that one and did okay given my entry point, but they screwed the bondholders royally with the cramdown...)

Interesting to think about how they can enforce a settlement -- I do see this government agreeing to one if they get certain things. But thanks for input...

Rek, and the courts will give us LEVERAGE in any settlement talks -- no court cases looming and stockholders get the bum's rush

I am looking forward to:

(i) Appeals ruling that either (a) sends the case back to Lamberth to try the case with an admin record OR (b) reverses the NWS on the clear basis of the underlying law

(ii) Plaintiffs moving for the Sweeney court to order government to reassess which of the 11k docs should be turned over in light of recent rulings and Sweeney ordering that

(iii) Sweeney ruling that there is jurisdiction and a case to be tried -- and setting a trial date in her case

All grist for those settlement talks -- and for us to get some semblance of value and redress

Rick, the deal is TWO Whopper Meals for $10 right now... or do I mean $8?

I am tempted to buy a little more FNMA here, but I am loaded to the gills and prudence says I have enough

Going to be a great 6 months IMHO -- though in any settlement the parties threaten to walk away etc

So I think we see some ups and downs in SP, I WILL buy more below 3.50 lol

Appeals has docs they were waiting for, so hopefully the Appeals court decision is coming too.

THAT will also provide a positive kickstart to SP

AND SO TOO would any indication that Tsy, FHFA and plaintiffs are in settlement talks

Lots of positive catalysts on deck, so no reason to panic and many upcoming possibilities for outright joy

March according to real Tim Howard on his blog

NWS is part of settlement talks -- I was dubious you give anything away, like suspending NWS, PRIOR to talks

So this makes perfect sense -- Mnuchin keeps everything on table for talks

OR just may be too early in Mnuchin's tenure for him to have gotten to this issue

I favor the former: The status of NWS will be huge item on settlement talk agenda

So much for Freddie making more draws on Treasury lol

Instead, another 4.5 billion scheduled for Tsy

Sweet! Thanks Commander since this is VERY good news for the Appeals Court process IMHO

Prefs could be converted to common, or cash, or who knows...

Aside from prefs being senior to common, and its implications, I just do not see much difference right now

BTW Appeals Court now close to an embarrassment IMHO

Really, at this point one can only say that this Federal Court is close to embarrassing itself and the wider court system. The inability to rule on this case is becoming less and less intelligible

Stockman, devil is in the details now, tho I agree having Mnuchin is a good thing for stockholders.

But import for common share price, IMHO, is now VERY much in the details of the approach Mnuchin, and the Trump administration is taking.

There is a huge range of values, and time periods, that could come out...

Worst: Mnuchin stiffs common -- time frame is then years as we go back to courts

Medium: We have a forced R&R with somewhat favorable terms

Good: We have settlement talks with pref, common and Tsy -- then we see a reasonable range, IMHO, matching Ackman's favored range

People are assuming Pref will get their $25, but I think that is too quick, I think pref has same set of outcomes and range of outcomes from 0-25... Anyway, that is why things are subdued IMHO --DEVIL IN THE DETAILS NOW

Yeah, HRC and the whole gang of crooks who perpetrated the original misdeeds would be in charge

Even saying stegman, sterling, parrot makes me want to puke

Our doom approaches...

Hoping it is a happy ending

Not necessarily, money does not go to Treasury till March, per Tim Howard, so got till then even if seeking to stop this payment. And we do not yet know if they care about this payment

We will see, but if nothing comes out this week I would not worry

That answer shows Lawler is hack ideologue...

Got till March per real Tim Howard - see his comments in comment thread on most recent message on blog

The money does not get to Tsy until March, so got till then to stop it in this round. Mary guy suspend NWS pending settlement negotiations and admitting nothing by so doing - going to be big part of talks what happens to sweep

So don't expect too much around earnings

oK, thanks I go look...

So we can conclude the docs are not turned over.

Presumably plaintiffs are waiting for Mnuchin to see what he decides and directs

And Appeals is waiting for those docs (and maybe hoping to not have to rule...)

Curious to see how the dominoes fall -- Mnuchin presumably turns over docs. If not, then going to be interesting. If he does turn over docs, then that starts to clock on Appeals judgement coming down IMHO

No way we get a settlement agreement in a couple of weeks - at most, they start talks. So maybe we get an Appeals ruling -- has to help plaintiffs in settlement talks IMHO

Anyway, we will see this week I hope...

Monte, I am right we have not heard docs are handed over, right?

Very curious about that...

Right Commander -- but we have no indication they have turned docs over. That is the ballgame

BUT Plaintiffs have not even asked judge to compell government to turn over docs -- why is that? I am curious.

I care less about paying costs

Hi Digra, it is interesting to think this stuff through:

(1) Sweenye Court is still on whether there is even jurisdiction for case and doing discovery on THAT -- so not even in that court yet.

(2) Lamberth threw out Perry case and we are waiting on Appeals to over-rule or affirm Lamberth -- so not even to the stage of having a recognized case there either

Most we get any time soon is that Appeals over-turns Lamberth (and/or maybe rules NWS is illegal on clear legal grounds per Epstein). Maybe we get to Sweeney ruling she has jurisdiction and case can go forward...

So we only have a little legal leverage -- BUT if Trump wants to go forward fast he needs to settle this stuff. That is what we have -- possibly with any damning evidence from forthcoming docs. Plus any desire of Trump to drag Obama through the mud...

Curious to see where we go in next few weeks.

Sweeney court docs?

Anyone read anything about whether these were turned over?

Interesting that plaintiffs are not sqwauking - waiting hopefully and politely for Mnuchin so no appeal? Or are informal talks going on?

Seems positive to me - any thoughts folks?


Munching confirmed Monday will make it interesting if anything happens next week - Trump wants action Pickett split...

No, they end run them imho

Settle with shareholders, Watt and Treasury make deal/changes, then R&R

That gets done fast - anything in congress will take year and no guarantee anything gets done. So Trump team won't go there imho

Pence and Calabria...

How important you think this is depends on how important you think Mike Pence's role is

Not very big springs to my mind

If Trump and his Tsy Sec want something done NOW hitting key Trump pledge of helping middle class and restoring sense/justice to financial order (and btw paying off backers and giving huge war chest for next campaign)....

Then I think you can forget Pence let alone Calabria. These ideologues bs-ers are done right now imho

Mnuchin delay to next week is outlined here:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/02/trump-cabinet-picks-confirmation-logjam-234851

Seems the Saturday session was bluff by Republicans -- they have plans elsewhere. So Mnuchin has to go next week...

Some sad stuff by both sides.

I have my tickets

Very good question - why think Mnuchin favors holder?

One answer: if Mnuchin wants to move fast he needs suits finished and shareholder agreement in some court sanctioned settlement

That seems a real reason why he has to play ball

Add the Trump principle in the executive order and Trump backers being Fnf holders and I am happy to continue holding common

Not a band showing on no news...

Someone is accumulating. Hopefully we see a move on Mnuchin appointment.

May also see a dip, which I may buy, if Mhuchin talks things down to leverage settlement... I cannot see how talks have started without Mnuchin, nor how he could be involved prior to appointment.

So I don't think official talks have started, so we could see some cage-rattling

Amen!

Thanks, very interesting indeed

I am all commons, so it does not matter to me -- but it is interesting to see where people are making their bets ans encouraging commons is so strong

lol

Was that directed to me or the warrant pie-in-the-sky fantasists?

Agree.

Shutting down NWS is enough and a plausible outcome.

Hard to see any route (that will happen) to the warrants being cancelled

SPSA does no such thing- read it again

It gives OPTION for Treasury to void the agreement, but does not mandate it

Even if NWS is struck Dow - obviously yet to happen - treasury can keep SPSA if it chooses - and why give up warrants worth 100's of billions of dollars in r&r

Stop
Making stuff up

955, thank you for the sober response. I am thinking this through, so some thoughts.

First, no court has ruled the granting of warrants was illegal. No court has even ruled on NWS. As of now, warrants are legal and in good standing.

Against that background, consider that Trump admin is a party to settlement talks and holds the warrants potentially worth many billions - which could ease worries about Trump program ballooning deficit - hence keeping warrants aids passage of Trumps wider program.

Perhaps extent or strike price of warrants might be negotiated away for settlement of NWS case and all others - but no reason for Trump to give away an asset otherwise.

So I do not see a reason why Trump admin does not keep, and monetize, the warrants to some degree

Somebody is simple, we will see who is living in dream

Happily, we still get a dream - just a 23-47 one a la Ackman's which includes warrants

GL - nothing we think or say will affect folks at the settlement table