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Possible short op at close, lets see how it works out.
Often best prices within first 5 minutes of the afterhours.
Lowest put call ratio, so far, on CBOE since late last november.
Market went sideways for 2 weeks that time, and then kept rallying.
Still looking to add to my short at spx 1680
When this rally began, and i bought near the bottom, expected price to get to 140 for gld.
Still could make it before the next correction
Hard to say if that selling climax was the end of the bear, but another test of that low next year is more likely.
Have never made much money trading gold. Repeating the same thing over and over and expecting different results is insanity.
Must be insane.
May god have mercy on our souls for what our military has done.
And maybe while he is at it, he can reveal what the )(&(&& market is going to do next week to me!
Agree, gold is not a good invextment short term, although the next couple weeks is not a sure thing.
A new low when the market takes a big hit, deflation, then is time to buy for the long term.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda bought tlt
just put 20% of my money into qid, 20.05
Rally looking suspect to me, new moon, and terrible job numbers is not good for the market, no matter what is ogng on right now.
Still could see spx 1690, will wait to short more for that possibility.
Enjoy the weekend. Am still feeling sad from a broken heart, maybe unlucky in love, lucky in the market?
Been wanting to short, but am going to wait. Your post helped me decide. If we are wrong, there will be other trades soon.
Tops take forever to form. Bottoms are easier to spot.
Spx and gld at important resistance and support levels respectively.
Was smart not to buy tlt!
I have no strong opinion of next short term move for gld or spx, although I am sure gld and spx are going down into October.
Will post if I see anything else of interest.
Pattern and other indicators say if this is the start of a bear market, right now is the time to short,
I agree with your price objective and will short heavily at spy 168.
Pattern still says sell the rallies.
People making $50,000 a year are a lot happier than people making $20,000 a year.
people making 50 million a year are no happier than those making 50k.
We need enough for food and decent shelter, but the rest does not bring happiness.
Being able to predict the market of course is the only real happiness.
Money, status, and power do not bring happiness. Doing something you believe in that is fun, filling your life with healthy loving people, and remembering to find joy in everything you do will make you happy.
Now if only the )*()^^ market would do what I want when I take a position!
In the end, it is the responsibility of the american people electing all those fools. Politicians can only do what the population will accept, and we accept irresponsible greedy leaders who are not acting in the interest of the most people in the country.
The trick is to live with integrity and honor, then who cares what the other idiots are doing?
Not much fear on cboe today, nothing to say about the isee numbers.
Looking like short coming soon. BTW, ad numbers are bearish, and oversold condition has been relieved, setting up potential further drop.
on other hand, we could be setting up for a couple days of up move, but then again, you can always find a reason to be bullish or bearish short term.
Life is always providing such wisdom, if I can only get out of the way of my ego.
Not reacting to the insanity of the market, staying fully in the reality of whatever system I use to make decisions instead of being drawn into the fear or elation, is how to make money.
So what works with the market, works with GF, or any life situation.
Life is what happens while we are busy making other plans.
Looks like rally mode into Thursday at the least, but not willing to do anything right now.
Attack on Syria will be a good time to buy! But when the reality that it will only make the situation worse sets in, look out below.
BTW, feeling happy about my GF situation. she will never change, but I can stop reacting to her insanity. Feels good.
IN my opinion, and it is just that, Nixon's election started the fall of America, and Reagan was the worst American president ever, until George W. proved it was possible to be even worse.
Lets face it, human beings are greedy, even me sometimes. To allow an economic system to exist that rewards any form of greed, and rewards fraud when practiced by the largest financial institutions, is guaranteed to create chaos and despair, not economic prosperity.
But what do I know? I cant even predict what is going to happen the next 5 minutes in the market, let alone the next 5 days!
Todays action typical topping formation.
When, not if, to short is the question. Am waiting until Thursday myself.
Great stuff! Looks like rally mode tuesday and wednesday, might be a short on thursday or not until next week.
Thanks for the charts, very insightful.
Trend line from march 2009 and august of 2011, is at dow 13,600.
My gut is this correction is dropping to that level.
what will trigger it is not my concern, but it will happen by november is a pretty sure thing.
Maybe smart to be long for now, but not for long. Will short by buying the qid. Of course, buying uvxy is the big bet, but is a bet not an investment to me.
FRom my excel program that lists all the major rallies in the past 20 years, staring in oct 1992. Hope is not confusing.
First number is date, second number of days of rally, third is spx at start, next is spx at finish, next is the percentage gain.
The next numbers are in the same order for the declines
This is for rallies without a 10% or greater correction to end them.
Current rally is one of the longest, but percentage wise is average, as average rally has been 33%.
1992 335 397 483 22% 1994 54 483 436 -10% 1994
1994 367 436 682 56% 1996 36 682 606 -11% 1996
1997 165 606 815 34% 1997 23 815 734 -10% 1997
1997 123 734 983 34% 1997 15 983 855 -13% 1997
1998 181 855 1191 39% 1998 57 1191 923 -23% 1998
1999 194 923 1420 54% 1999 64 1420 1234 -13% 1999
2000 110 1234 1553 26% 2000 15 1553 1339 -14% 2000
2000 96 1339 1530 14% 2000 77 1530 1254 -18% 2000
2001 26 1254 1383 10% 2001 35 1383 1081 -22% 2001
2001 42 1081 1316 22% 2001 81 1316 945 -28% 2001
2002 58 945 1177 25% 2002 137 1177 776 -34% 2002
2002 29 776 965 24% 2002 34 965 769 -20% 2002
2002 36 769 954 24% 2003 50 954 789 -17% 2003
2003 247 789 1163 47% 2004 111 1163 1061 -9% 2004
2004 734 1061 1556 47% 2007 23 1556 1371 -12% 2007
2007 37 1371 1576 15% 2007 107 1576 1257 -20% 2008
2008 44 1257 1440 15% 2008 131 1440 741 -49% 2008
2008 30 741 944 27% 2009 39 944 667 -29% 2009
2009 290 667 1220 83% 2010 47 1220 1011 -17% 2010
2010 175 1011 1371 36% 2011 97 1371 1075 -22% 2011
2011 342 1075 1422 32% 2012 42 1422 1267 -11% 2012
2012 289 1267 1710 35%
180 33% 61 -19%
I would have gone 50% long had the market closed on a big minus tick and high trin, like it was 5 minutes before the close, more or less.
Just more or less broke up with my gf, and like all women, she then left after some spectacular activities that involve laying down part of the time. We will be good friend, I just cant trust her, but now and then if she wants to come say hello and lay down with me, why should i deny her wanting to share that space with me?
Ok, market looks like short term rally mode, but am better off not being invested for now. Looking to short again when it makes sense.
A nice rally at end, negates an easy long entry. Bummer man!
Counter intuitive: A bad august is followed by a good sept?
Has worked many times, at least for a 2 week rally.
High trin again today, and the "buy" on wednesday still is possible to kick in.
Syria is the key actually, a strike that works will send stocks higher. NO action is not good, or a massive strike that creates a crises will hurt.
gold says no worries mate, she'll be apples! (aussie for everything will be ok)
I took care of over 500 kitties as a animal rescue person. I have enjoyed half that many pussies that are not of the house pet variety, and i can tell you they are a lot more fun to be around.
The pattern reminds me of the last correction, with some kind of fake big 2 day rally suckering in the last of the bulls before the bear drops us fast and furious.
Not sure if the major bull is over, but sure feels like it is going to end soon.
Remember Smokey, no bull market lasts forever. I agree, if we can rally back above 1680 and stay there for a week, then the bull market is still on.
Will get more numbers tomorrow and post around noon pst.
Thanks to everyone for the words of compassion for my plight.
BTW, I am now sure we are going sideways into early next week and then down hard.
It is time to sell every rally instead of buying every dip. Still could rally back to 1680, but most like we will not rally that high.
just because one woman cheated on me big time, does not smear all women as liars.
Am actually happy today. Bit pissed I missed the short monday and the long the next day! had orders to buy qid at open monday, and then buy qld at open wednesday, but pulled them both, too much stress in my life.
Looks like a top, feels like a top coming, maybe the bears are going to have their heads handed to them instead?
I prefer the term pussy instead of cat. Much more fun type of kitty.
Better to miss a trade than make a really bad one, or get in too early.
Looks like this rally is going back to spx 1680, will think about shorting if it does and everything else fits.
When gld was at 116, I bought with the intention of holding half to 130, and the other half to 140. I posted it was a buy then.
Looks like it topped out just below 140.
of course, i sold all of mine at 125.5!
Would be fully invested in qld, but am nursing a broken heart right now.
I love cats! Check out my website: heartfeltanimals.com
Woman at bottom of blog page is the one who has broken my heart.
I agree, rally into friday and then down, down.
Been grieving why have not posted, but I did get a strong buy on the close yesterday.
minus 580 tick, trin over 2, major buy signal.
Thought could be down today, and we still could make a more solid bottom by going sideways into friday, but eventually we rally back to 1680 or higher on spx.
Bummed am too raw to be trading, or would have shorted monday and gone long this morning.
All is ok on this end
At the close on the last trading day of 2013 the $SPX will be ___1450_____ plus or minus 10 points.
I dont trust easily, and am deeply hurt that the first woman I ever fully trusted did this to me. Am also feeling betrayed and in a funny way, abandoned. Feeling lucky it happened after only 2 years, and not after 10, but is not much help right now.
Am going to short at 1680 if the options numbers are good (as in show enthusiasm for the rally. If options players dont believe the rally, then it will go up a lot more. They have not believed any rally since november, except this one. Lets see if that continues.
When my first GF dumped me when i was 21, i buried myself in work. Probably good advice this time.
At least my lovely gave me a book to write! Is going to shock all her friends, if any ever read it. But more likely nobody she knows will read it, and they will never know is about her anyway unless she tells them, as it is fiction.
it turns out she did not have the honesty and integrity I saw in her. Will not repeat my sad tale, but am devastated by how it all turned out. For a short time, on friday, I thought I had it all. But I do have 2 years of memories of physical pleasures and good times to cherish.
Should have known trying to make a relationship work with someone out of my league (I am 63, she is 35, very pretty and rich, and I am not that handsome or well off) was a bit insane.
Maybe unlucky in love means I make money this week?
I give it 50-50 if 1685 (and that means anything over 1680) is the major top everyone expects.
If we close over that level 2 days in a row, could go a lot higher than most people expect.
Drama of my life going on, why not posting for now. feels like a soap opera, only is my life! Am going to write a book about the entire drama from start 2 years ago to now, will make a great book and movie.
What is the ending?
Stay tuned for nest weeks adventure of Ahimsa kitten!
Not sure when final will happen, but could be soon, or in 8 months. If you think about it, that is just short of important cycle in every person reading this post.
My best trades were shorting parabolic rises. tricky part is the timing, as can lose your shirt if too early.
Gld at 116 recently was classic selling climax, think we run to origanal target of 140 or 150
I can see that open gap, why is such important resistance. Bet is is resistance for a day or so, but not for more, with rally into new moon early sept final top.
Short with impunity if we do rally into spxt 5th