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very nice Stockbum9!
Thank you for taking the lead on this...
cheers
stockbum, one thing I would add to the list of "don't know"...
who is the "highly regarded" company that LEH has been in talks with for potential JV/Merger?
cheers
you're a gentleman and a scholar stockbum9!
Cheers
Yeah...and we can call it the "Lehman One Big Shared" board!
I agree...very nice bullet points.
my only critique would be as a fully engaged common shareholder. I do wonder how some people figure that commons will be left out of the waterfall. commons are locked up in OBS for some reason. if that reason is so that everyone ahead can benefit and then commons are left with zilch, well that would be so wrong on so many levels I can't begin to describe.
I would appreciate more board dialogue on how all classes of shareholders see a positive or negative outcome, but with more meat on the bones than just saying common equity gets zero. just not understanding how that kind of blanket statement can be made. it may be true in many or most BK cases...but this BK is unlike any other.
Cheers all and thanks again for the terrific outline.
Lehman was founded in 1850 and has a 162 year history that will be around for many years to come...they have seen and been through it ALL since before the Civil War! IMO they will return...but under another name probably (i.e. Author Anderson is now Accenture).
Only one question remains...are the current share holders (CT and Equity) secure?
2013 predictions:
1. The Mayan calendar was wrong!
2. Obummer is gone and the USA regains it's prominence as a world leader with President Mitt Romney
3. LEH repays $65B and closes out BK
4. LEH merges with "highly regarded" financial services company
5. New stock is issued to current debt/equity holders
6. LEH/newco utilizes NOL's for the next decade and pays no taxes
7. All IHub LEH board participants buy new Ferrari's and blow a bunch of money in Las Vegas...because we are all gamblers!
Cheers & GLTA
Gentlemen there is a Plan of Reorganization (POR)...not telling you anything new with that one. Yes LEH is liquidating some assets to pay off the $65B owed, but this is no liquidation, IMO.
All data points point to LEH following the POR.
My big question is can LEH still pull some kind of shenanigan after $65B pay-out and cancel out the CT, preferreds and common equity that is either trading on grays or locked up in the one big share.
would love to hear from the board on the likely scenarios on that subject. Isn't that really all that matters? are we secure or not...
cheers
ewwwww, so full of mystery and intrigue. it's like having James Bond here on the Lehman BK board. give it a rest or PLEASE go to the yahoo board where this type of jibber jabber is the norm.
I would like to read your past post and opinion on this subject. your profile shows that you have posted 4,168 times so I don't plan to sort through 4,168 posts to find the wisdom that you would like to pass on to us simple minded folks.
please repost for the benefit of the board or please move on to the yahoo MB without any further insults.
have a nice day
Open question for the board...
lets suppose that $300B debt is discharged/cancelled after paying back required $65B - Lehman has to include this $300B as income. Also assuming LEH has $100B NOL.
$300B income = +/- $100B NOL (35% corp tax rate)
Under this scenario - basically a wash - LEH moves forward free and clear on any liabilities with any remaining assets to create a lamco merger/IPO...all classes of equity and CT's receive stock in newco.
what am I missing here?
Of course #10 was pure speculation...but #9? isn't the rule to preserve NOL's old/cold debt/equity must own 50%?
would the $300B discharge/swap, owed to creditors for agreeing to the POR, classify as retained debt/equity ownership for the 50% rule?
cheers
Toogoodfella,
Please tell me if this is correct...
1. LEHMAN emerged from bankruptcy with a POR
2. LEH must pay creditors $65B
3. Due to POR approval, US laws allow for $300B discharge
4. LEH has other plans to not discharge debt (to hold onto NOL's), instead works with POR creditors to form/merge/allign one or more "newco's" and swap $300B debt for equity.
5. If #4 works then no discharge of debt...only swap debt for equity
6. no discharge. no taxes owed. LEH and newco's maintain NOL's
7. equity classes are maintained by law to preserve NOL's
8. Newco company(s) are formed, IPO
9. equity classes receive 50% of newco IPO ownership/value
10.Stock price opens at $15 on day one...soars to $25 on day three
Is this your scenario? I like it if it is...
Cheers
Thanks for sharing Cotton.
I did not realize until just now how brilliant I really am...and the fact that there is a name for it is even better...
I am a proud American "VULTURE INVESTOR"!
Definitely putting that on my business cards when print a new set.
Cheers
A good article on the Bio-Electronics industry...sort of relevant to us.
cheers
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/487fb69e-db1f-11e1-8074-00144feab49a.html
I agree with you on the "something up their sleeve" comment...
Cautionary Statements Regarding Financial and Operating Data
The Company cautions the reader not to place undue reliance upon the information contained in the Balance Sheets, as they were not prepared for the purpose of providing the basis for an investment decision directly or indirectly relating to the Company or any of its securities. The Balance Sheets were not prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, were not audited or reviewed by independent accountants, will not be subject to audit or review by external auditors at any time in the future, are in a format consistent with applicable bankruptcy laws, and are subject to future adjustment and reconciliation. There can be no assurances that the Balance Sheets are accurate or complete. The Balance Sheets contain a further description of limitations on the information contained therein. The Balance Sheets also contain information which might not be indicative of the Company's financial condition. Results set forth in the Balance Sheets should not be viewed as indicative of future results.
Hi Mik1,
would you be so kind as to elaborate with more details on your post? I'm not following it...
As an "all in" common shareholder i'm very interested in anything posted on this subject.
Thanks in advance.
cheers
Toogoodfella,
what is the likelihood that we could get hold of the actual IRS response letter? wouldn't you like to know what Lehman stated in the letter to the IRS as well as the IRS actual response?
Isn't the content in the IRS letter the answer to all of our questions and hypothesis over the past 4 months with respect to LEH plans going forward?
Cheers
anxiously awaiting your detailed response to... "even better folks".
Thank you Toogoodfella!
Toogoodfella,
That's good news, right?
I likes $49B for equity sake.
cheers
Hey CottonisKing,
RE: you last post
the link didn't get posted. was there more?
Cheers
Toogoodfella, sorry to be a pain in the butt, but I did a word search for "summary" in 262 pages of the Lehman amended modified plan in it only appears once on page 93 for a loan portfolio summary.
am I looking in the wrong place? any chance you can post the paragraph you are speaking of?
cheers
Hi Toogoodfella,
my version of the Lehman Amended Modified Plan must be different than the one you're looking at...page numbers are not matching up. Can you reply with the section/chapter number or some other indication. I would like to read what you mentioned. Couldn't find it by word search either from your post.
cheers
agreed. That was just my poor attempt at an on line joke. It's a little bit funny to find out during bankruptcy all the things LEH was "invested" in. Uranium, Rare Art, Construction companies, etc...
...Probably still have a few half-way houses for wayward girls that won't go "all the way".
Cheers all
Hey Cotton, Don't forget the Yellow Cake Uranium" sale!
I wonder if Lehman has any gumball machines around the world that they can tap into for extra waterfall dollars...just saying
cheers
Come on guys...please just bury the hatchet and shake hands (electronically at least). Both of you are very relevant to this board and we all enjoy reading and learning from you guys.
ok lets do this...1,2,3 shake. All done now right?
we're all good friends. now take a deep breath and start over.
Done.
Cheers and have a great day.
so under a scenario where commons are wiped out, but NOL's are maintained - one could assume that LEH would theoretically have HAD to use commons in order to maintain NOL's.
I've always been a little weary of this possible scenario...
I'm not an attorney, but it would appear that if LEH did that to commons for the benefit of other classes - a tremendous lawsuit would be in the works.
thanks for the heads up
hestheman, when you return from your workout us commons would love to hear more about your recent findings of how commons may ultimately be zero'd out with no value or payout. Thanks in advance.
Cheers!
I like your way of thinking but "Lehman" may as well be a curse word in the consumer financial world...would take alot of extra marketing dollars to make that fly, if ever. Sort of like bringing back Enron or MCI or Pan Am...not sure if it could be done. I realize you were probably just kidding anyway.
Thanks again for all your terrific posts. This board owes you big time. If all this pays out, dinners on me brother!
cheers
all good stuff Cotton...if we were to look into that crystal ball and ask where is Lehman going, my money would be on this Morgan Stanley/Lamco theory.
MS has a very decent name in the financial world...not overly plagued with scandals.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, the last two major investment banks in the US, both announced on September 22, 2008 that they would become traditional bank holding companies regulated by the Federal Reserve.[16] The Federal Reserve's approval of their bid to become banks ended the ascendancy of securities firms, 75 years after Congress separated them from deposit-taking lenders, and capped weeks of chaos that sent Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy and led to the rushed sale of Merrill Lynch & Co. to Bank of America Corp.[17]
so while we wait, lets play...
"put a name on the newly merged company".
Morgan Stanley has been the following over the years:
Morgan Stanley Dean witter & Co.
Morgan Stanley Smith Barney
how about one of these:
Morgan Stanley & Brothers
Morgan Stanley & Mucho NOL!
or maybe...
Morgan Stanley, Lehman & Peck
(in case we need to grease the wheels a little)
Very nice intel Cotton!
So Thomas "retires" from MS and they don't fill his old position...then just happens to show up to run the new lehman. All the while it was preplanned at MS & Alvarez.
I like this quote from your article...“we've been crafting the organization to fit the reality of where we are today and the strategic plan for where we are headed.”
Yeah, headed into a merger with LEH!...
Cotton, you is the King!
Let me prefix by saying I'm long on BIEL and love the product...it works great.
a potential read on the PR today is that BIEL was denied by FDA and now BIEL is setting up shop in Europe...
Get listed on the London "penny stock" exchange and do this all over again...
could be, never know.
GLTA
Yes, that's my understanding. also if you owned lehman shares prior to 2008 BK there may be a claim for you.
the rest is just a waiting game...the lehnq board has become the defacto leh board so lots of good info there from some smart guys.
good luck
no need to file a claim...go to the LEHNQ Ihub message board and follow along. you have some catching up to do, but good things are coming.
cheers
I agree with you Toogood. It doesn't smell right that their would be an entitlement to anything more after the $65B is paid in full.
Hestheman, looking forward to hearing more from you on this matter.
Cheers guys
Thank you Toogood...I appreciate the reply and clarity. Do you have any experience in how the new stock shares are divided out? is that subjective?
If you could, give us a theory on the one big share (689M commons) with $24B remaining in the company coffers...LEH merges with company X or goes IPO. Are you saying that it wouldn't matter if LEH says each share of stock is now equal to 1/3 share in new X company (or one share equals 3 shares...) All that matters is what the public market will pay for the new stock based on financials?
689M shares at the time of converting them to one big share = +/- $20M. I'm just trying to understand how this $20M can turn into +/-$20B when we merge or reemerge in the future.
cheers
Hestheman, Toogood, Cotton, Devil and the rest of the "Go Lehman" team that add educated, interesting and informative posts daily. I read them all with great appreciation to you guys.
My question to all. We often read the comment..."and little remaining for the commons". How exactly does that work in a BK situation this this? I hear a lot about the "waterfall". Is there any part of the waterfall that is subjective? Lets say under "toogoods" theory that after all is said and done, there is +/- $24B remaining for commons (I believe I read that theory a couple weeks ago)...and the math on that worked out to something like $35 per share (689M commons).
IF...$24B were to turn out to be fact, is LEH legally bound to distribute this sum in cash/stock?
I just live by the rule that he who has the gold makes the rules, and although I am hoping for a pay-out, I just sense these wallstreet guys are NOT working in our favor. They will do whatever it takes to screw us over.
So back to asking, is it subjective or maybe put another way, can the Plan Trust that holds our one big share do whatever THEY feel is best for us?
Cheers all
OK, so what's your point. do you need a shoulder to cry on? I'm here for you...we're all in the same boat. It's a start up company. not a scam...
If you would have "invested" your hard earned money in a restaurant around the corner from you, the same thing could and probably would have happened. It's an "at risk" INVESTMENT.
average down like everybody else and hope for the best.
your posting efforts are not hurting/helping one bit.
best of luck in the future on something else.
BRAVO! and a standing ovation for you fuja21...good post. 100% accurate and on the money.
go BIEL!
hey that was a nice debate...I still prefer "toogoodfella" math to anything else I've heard/seen. That way all classes are paid in full after the $65B obligation, and commons are left with $24B.
I've already called Ferrari and they are sending me brochures for the 2013 models! I think I'll go with black...makes me look slimmer.
It's a very interesting game to watch from the sidelines...so many variables and of course we are in a den of thieves - so anything can and will happen.
The board appreciates you toogoodfella.
cheers