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Hi Dibbs, I asked the Dave&Busters question. In the past I have asked them about insider buying and I GUARANTEE they know exactly how all of us view the situation, especially with regard to how some on the BOD are barely even shareholders.
I do think that at least right now part of the "problem" (a good problem) is that there really is a ton of stuff going on with the company that outsiders like us are not privy to but that prevents insiders from buying. No one can quibble with Ferris' stake, it probably wouldn't even be good (from an institutional investor viewpoint) for us if he owned more. My biggest gripe was always with the BOD and other top execs not buying.
With the last 8 years and specifically the recent 2 quarters and outlook strongly implied in yesterday's PR, this is a STRONG BUY. EPS this year already at 12 cents and hitting 18 - 22cents for the year sure seems probable. Accounting for cash on the bal sheet and all else (including OTC status) they conservatively deserve a PE of 20. Then look at PS, seems likely 2017 revenue will be in the 18 - 20mil range. Stock price of $4 is a PS of about 3. Half that of Taser, more than some others, so maybe about right.
Yet here we sit at 2.16. If I were home I would buy some. Killing time at the library b4 a 4pm appt.
I'm good Bill. I like the company, the stock, and the CEO. I like the direction and most everything really. I still have all my shares, will obviously not sell, and will likely continue to add a few here and there.
Emails and texts are always difficult since they almost always come across as too harsh no matter who is writing them.
I just wish they could lay out the 1 or 2 year plan in detail for all of us so we better understood the big picture and all the possibilities. But I know that is neither wise nor practical given the competitive landscape and loose lips sinking ships.
I have calmed a bit from my earlier tirades today. I plead guilty to shooting first and asking questions later. Works pretty good on pheasants, maybe not so good on these venues.
The webcast had quite a few very bullish statements and the AR number in the balance sheet sure suggests more strong quarters ahead.
Consistent 20% YOY growth for almost a decade now is impressive and incredibly rare in the world of private and public companies. Just doesn't happen. Always darkest before dawn.
Cheers.
Gregg, Your post was interesting on several levels. You are a good salesman and likely very successful and sadly you have the CEO's ear. All you are doing is trying to get a chunk of the company at a low price for your clients. Just admit that is your game and your angle. Nothing wrong with it either. But the slant you put on things is simply wrong..... Virtra's stock is worthless? Even a small business will require $20 to $30mil? Dilution is often a good thing?
Let's focus on that last one. That is a lie. About 90% of the time dilution is a bad thing, in fact a terrible thing for all shareholders. It is only a good thing when done at a time when the stock is ridiculously overpriced. This happens most often with biotechs.
There is also not any correlation to number of shares and liquidity. In fact if you run the regressions of number of shares verses daily trading volume the R squared is so low that there isn't even a correlation with that which is rather surprising. Likewise with listing exchange and liquidity.
VirTra is a good company with a good business and sound balance sheet. They generate enough cash flow every year to retire 10% of the shares each year until there are none left (slight exaggeration but you get my point). Think about that. VirTra just needs to keep growing at 20% YOY and buying back/retiring shares and in a few short years every remaining shareholder would be wealthy beyond what any of us imagine today.
Lastly, VirTra could walk into any bank tomorrow and borrow $10million at 5% with zero dilution or poison pills or anything else. Just a straight up no strings loan.
Part of my hope is that several readers here, contact CEO and IR between now and webcast time. I already sent them my two bits both via email and vmail.
I don't mean to distract from the really good quarter. Over $5mil in rev and EPS of 10cents. They now have about 12cents in EPS through only half the year! Then as Schneid points out, look at AR and pretty obvious a big Q3 is on its way. Balance sheet is beautiful. Swimming in cash....or at least wading in it.
2017 appears right on track for another +20% YOY. Pretty awesome.
So why we at $2.30? Weeble just pointed out the reasons as did I. It is sad. Almost as if CEO doesn't trust himself enough to do what deep down he knows is the right thing to do. He is listening to the wrong people in my opinion.
I really think CEO Ferris has surrounded himself with some people that do not have the best interests of either him or VTSI shareholders in mind. That includes financial advisor GregginAZ, it includes the Modern Round 80% owner, it includes each member of the BOD. NONE of these people own significant numbers of shares yet they all see the gold mine and want a piece but are unwilling to buy in the open market because they can't get a big enough piece that way. Sickening.
They probably have something bigger in mind but they really do need to tell us and sell us on it.
A Europe office can easily be had and staffed and launched for less than $2mil. Easily.
My fear is they are listening to self-serving financial advisors like GregginAZ who do not care at all about current shareholders but are simply trying to figure out how to get their own clients into a significant piece of the company without having to buy shares in the open market.
I would also have no issue with a Capital Raise if it was done when the stock was grossly OVERvalued, like if it was at $20 right now. At $2.x it is just stupid to even talk about.
They damn well better explain the words Capital Raise. If they are not prepared to talk about the details, they shouldn't have raised the topic.
How can you be buying back/retiring shares one minute and then raising capital the next minute?
They need to tell us the story/plan.
They need to get a new financial advisor.
They need a shareholder like any of us here to be on the BOD.
Great quarter though but in 2 words they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Yes, a very odd PR both in content and timing. Historically they would issue PRs on most (but not all) $1mil+ orders. This obviously was not a big job and the order was a long time ago.
About the only thing I can think of is they did it for some sort of strategic reason to help on some other order or perhaps (given the timing) they want to talk about this one a little bit on Monday morning.
Perhaps it appears in the script that Bill referred to....ha ha. But probably true!
I sent my questions about 3 or 4 weeks ago, I hope they made the cut.
That was interesting Teeroy. The part that struck me was that VirTra understands that training is not all about shooting. It is about everything, non-lethal stuff, using voice commands, etc. Their sales pitch is getting nicely refined and fits what the public is asking for. Sky is the limit for the company and stock.
I really doubt it is the company buying shares this close to earnings. The buyback program is supposed to be bound by the same rules as the insiders need to abide by so the first day they could buy is Wednesday, 2 trading days after the release. But who really knows what anyone does these days.
Well said! There is no doubt the current buyer(s) is far more disciplined than the seller(s).
I just am continually amused by this sort of thing because it differs to much from the way I think/act. When I want to buy a stock, I buy it. Price doesn't make much difference. Same with real estate, when I want it I buy it. The only important thing at the end of each transaction is that I own what I was trying to buy.
When I sell, I want the buyers to come to me because I can convince them what I have is golden.
At least today is better than a poke in the eye. When will sellers learn a bit of restraint?
Why would any seller hit those bids? Silly people deserve exactly what they get.
I also always thought company buybacks were governed by the same buy/sell timeframes as insiders. The next open window for insider buying starts one week from tomorrow morning. Two trading days after the earnings release.
Certainly possible sbudd. Where did you see they previously bought 25k shares? My stupidity is no doubt on display with that question, but I really had not seen a number associated with their buyback to date.
I also thought it was against "buyback rules" for any company to use a limit order? But perhaps I am also wrong about that or the rule doesn't apply when they use a 3rd party to secure the buys or sells.
Just happy to see somebody/anybody buying.
24,650 on the Bid at 2.00. There haven't been many days in the last 9 months where I have seen a bid of that size.
Also interesting that the person with 12,700 at the ASK at 2.00 over the last couple days only filled about half of those and now doesn't want to sell at 2.10? What is real and what isn't?
Good and interesting posts frpt100k! I also love it when people make money and lots of it. Those are the sorts of stories that keep us all chugging forward. I've told this one a few times...
Back in 2002 I worked for Seagate and was using their expense reporting software. Seemed ok so I looked at bottom of screen and saw the name Conqur Tech (CNQR) so I bought 10,000 shares at 71 cents that day. About 1 or 2 months later I sold at 1.43 and felt like a hero.
It is now my saddest story ever because I kept watching it and all it did after that is go up and up and up.....all the way to about 140 over the next decade! And that is without any reverse splits or forward splits or any splits! Then it got bought by someone a couple years ago at 100+ I think.
It was ridiculously overvalued once it passed about 25 but that sure didn't both any buyer. Crazy.
Not that I count for anything....but your idea is an extremely good one. There really are opportunities everywhere.
Since the stock dropped below 2.50 in late January, I added up all the daily volume since then and it comes out to roughly 1.6million shares! That is about 10% of all outstanding shares. I doubt if much of this is do to flippers. It also suggests certainly more than 1 or 2 motivated sellers.
The good thing is that those shares should be in stronger hands now than before so it should provide a firm base from which to move up. Or maybe just wishful thinking.
Yep, that is probably the most likely scenario. And my guess is that the buyer is VirTra.
Think of it this way Ruffie. You and I could decide that later this week we want to make a VTSI trade at 1.20. We could pick a day with no bids/asks pre or post-market and one of us could offer the shares at 1.20 and the other could buy them at that price. Pre and post market is a dangerous place if you are not sure about what you are doing and don't use limit prices.
That's where the first 10k+ shares traded today in about 4 different trades spanning about 5 or 6 minutes.
Actually I spoke "too late" and am happy I wasn't watching sooner.
Looks like it started just a few minutes before the open with a 2500 share trade at 1.86, then another at about same price. Then a couple more trades right after the open to take the volume to 10,225 but still at 1.86. Then 3 trades that popped it to 21k volume and a creep back to 2.10.
Yes, I think it certainly could have been some sort of pre-arrangement although more likely we now know where the company is willing to step in and buy. Tough to guess accurately on any of this other than to say that someone really really wants out.
A 23k share trade to start off August? Who sold? Who bought? Sure would be interesting to know. Or maybe not.
You're probably right but it (a lower price) does open more eyes to the possibility and makes more shareholders receptive. That said, I would hate a lower price. I want this to go up. I was just trying to find a silver lining.
Can you imagine what the price would be right now if there was a PR saying D&B would be rolling this out to all 83 locations over the next 24 months? An immediate double!
My comment about if VTSI goes down significantly we will walk away with $3 or $4 in a month is simply because I believe VirTra is already in a dangerous place with respect to surviving as a standalone company. I fully expect them to get swallowed by a bigger fish or a large private equity firm within a year.
Those sorts of deals always go over best with shareholders when the "apparent" premium to share price is significant. So, if VTSI were at 1.60, someone offers to buy at 3.20....looks pretty good. Most would vote Yes.
I actually expect SWHC to be the buyer.
It is my translation of what a Modern Round manager told me today when I called the corporate phone number listed on the MR website. I used quotes around the word corporate because I am about 98% certain that the person who answered the phone was a hostess or waitress at the Peoria MR restaurant.
I briefly spoke with her and when I started asking questions she said, "oh, I will get you one of the managers". Then a very nice and pleasant and seemingly knowledgeable gent came on the phone and I asked him some questions about MR/D&B and why there hasn't been any PRs or advertising or promotions. He basically said that D&B is in complete control and that they make the call on that sort of thing and that this is simply a trial site to see if it might work. He mentioned a 3 to 6 month timeframe but it wasn't clear to me if he actually knew that was a fact or was winging it to my questions.
Apparently D&B is calling ALL the shots regarding this trial. They are in 100% complete control of everything and that includes when/how to promote. MR cannot sneeze unless they ask D&B for permission. I actually called MR earlier today and asked a whole bunch of questions. Their "corporate" phone number is on the MR website. If you call it, you will know why I put corporate in quotes.
Is it true that the duration of the "trial" at D&B is between 3 and 6 months?
Thank you. That is the first post of yours that I understood!
Twister, Why don't you write in complete sentences and make clear statements regarding VirTra and VTSI so what you write can be understood? I think you simply write in an intentionally vague manner so that you can be correct/right no matter how things play out. I think your style is silly if it is an intentional style. If not intentional, then I will pray for you since you have issues.
Let's hope VTSI does get to 1.6 or 1.5 or sub-$1. Why? Simple, because that would be the end of VTSI and we would all walk away with $3 or $4/share within a month.
Lots of reasons, each order that shipped!
They also had record order intake in Q1, much of that should hit in Q2 and Q3.
They obviously shipped 3 systems to MR/D&B and a bunch of others based on the govtribe website.
Then go back and read the mid-May Q1 PR, some pretty bullish statements in there about the remainder of 2017.
My guess is somewhere between $4mil and $6mil with EPS of 3 to 7cents.
My guess is it was an early morning trade that just got entered/recorded or something like that. I like your term "out of sequence", that makes sense.
Ok I'll bite....Why do you want the share price at that level?
Yes, and Novartis pays for just about everything with respect to emricasan going forward so it is so for someone buying the stock it is sort of like getting either emricasan for free or the pipeline for free.
I added shares today.
I really wish CEO Ferris would make a statement in the upcoming webcast with regard to what he thinks the company is worth relative to the current market cap. I have actually owned several stocks over the years where CEOs did make this sort of statement.
In some ways, he has in that they have the stock buyback plan approved. But I would sure like to hear him speak aggressively and passionately about the company and where it is headed. I do not want to hear him reading off a script for the entire call.
Lots of truth in what you said. But I think that is also what the company is thinking and is why the buyback amount is only $1million. The vast majority of their cash is available for an acquisition and they could certainly borrow a ton of money if they wanted.
The market today says the entire company is worth $26million. That is market cap less net cash. Pretty pathetic and certainly not a real valuation. No way could anyone walk in and buy the company for today's market cap.
They need to pick a level and support the price. And perhaps they are but it doesn't look that way. Twister said it best in that he implied there is no bottom. So until people know there is a bottom, they are not going to buy. I bought 8500 shares today but I am not exactly the sharpest knife on the old Christmas tree.
We touched 1.69 a week or so ago intraday. No need to revisit it.