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Hope you are right, would load up on GLD if that happens. Market could tank next week, and again it could just keep going up.
WE have a 3 runs to a top formation, very bearish if we break recent lows.
An of course for the first time this year am not short!
IN 2000, at a party at my physics professor brothers home full of professors, everyone was talking about how much money they had made in tech stocks, one lady had invested 50k in JDSU and it was now worth a million (and is now worth about 1500, so not the best long term investment). Nobody wanted to hear my prediction there was a big correction coming.
IN 2006, went to another party and all the physics professors were feeling so rich, having bought second and even third homes on the money they pulled out of their own house by refinancing. Again, they all thought I was nuts thinking houses would drop in price.
Wish I could go to a party at his house now!
It is a dangerous place, I was there 32 years ago, but is probably a bit different now?
Trying to make us jealous? Hot time of year, hurricaine season, but you seem lucky so far.
Am taking care of pregnant GF at my home, spent 14 years traveling before I was 50, nice to be home and starting a family at 62.
looks like a big move coming, but although my gut says down, not willing to do anything right now.
we are still overbought, the decline has not relieved that. This is the kind of formation where a huge fall starts, or another rally.
Not feeling smart, so best to step aside. Wish there was a clear signal.
Thanks for your posts, will think about shorting after a big up day, not before.
Isee has seen very low numbers, which is bullish. options are an inexact science, they can be right for awhile, or very wrong.
Can go either way, but if up, not a lot of room above before is a sell again.
IN the longer run, earnings are what moves the markets. Earnings in oct will have a major effect, as will the debt ceiling talks.
No confidence in my trading, so not doing anything
Facts:
The spx has closed 4 days in a row below the low of the previous day = bearish
The 21, 50, and 200dma are all in an uptrend = bullish
Longer term sentiment is very bullish = bearish
Options numbers this week are bearish = bullish.
You never get everything aligned, but the above is not clear to me.
Am tempted to go long here, but this pattern is also the calm before the storm and a big decline.
Have been so wrong this year, not willing to do anything off this pattern, but sure looks like a buy, back to new high.
BTW, we dropped to the gap open from last monday, so if we do rally off this low, could be big 2 day rally. If we do drop to that 1670, then not sure what follows, but a rally to new highs is probable.
Not an easy market to trade, with the fed manipulating price.
I agree, if we start down tomorrow, spx 1670 or so likely target. Or we get a 2 day rally, followed by a bigger correction. If we do drop down another day or so, that sets up the next short term rally, and i will buy a little in that case.
It is all about the fed, amazing.
All systems still go for the rally, even if i dont see how it can keep going up, the trend is still up.
21, 50, and 200dma are all still pointing up, and the 21dma for the vix is dropping, all bullish.
Best of all, is another trin over 1.2 tomorrow and the 5 day trin gives a strong buy signal.
Not willing to buy with the problems with the real economy, but my system leans to the market going up into the end of next week.
Remember, the final high in 2007 was early October. And we just got a 3 jumps to a top formation, very bearish, but tops take a lot longer to develop than bottoms.
A whole lot of pessimism after a very small drop for a couple days, not looking that bearish to me.
The trend is your friend, and it is still up. ONe more run to new highs, or at least a new high in QQQ, would be bearish at this time of year.
Also seeing options numbers that support a big up day soon. Just my 2 cents, again have been so wrong this past year on market direction, not willing to invest for now.
Miners suck. NEM was higher in 1995 than it is now, and the price of gold is 5 times higher.
I have made and lost about the same amount in gold over the years, not worth trading except on rare occaisions.
Still expect 1690 to hold, with one more rally to 1730, will short if that happens, but the market is never that easy.
Interesting that last mondays gap open at 1695 on the spx is holding today. Looks very bullish to me, would be long except am tired of losing money!
I agree with HD, at least one more run at 1730 before the axe falls.
I have been wrong as many times as I have been right the past year, and have lost money. time to not trade for awhile unless I see a really clear signal, like shoring at the open on thursday.
Trend is still up, strong up, but economy is fragile, not a good time to make big bets.
Best of luck to all, will post if I see anything important, but for now just confused about what to do next, so am doing nothing.
High final trin, a lot of bearishness in the options numbers, so up on monday looks likely to me, why i covered short today.
Monday is going to be volatile, hard to hold positions over the weekend lately.
Looking pretty bearish, as am flat again!
My gut says at least one more run to a top, but qqq could make new high or equal yesterdays high, but spx will not.
One good way to time a top, short on 4th day after first top, which is tuesday. And, still full moon fever today, and new moon at end of first week of Oct, so time to short is end of 2 weeks from now.
That is my plan for now. BTW, had i not jumped on a very week sell signal last friday, would have made money shorting this week.
patience
I made good money in 1988, selling short every 32 to 35 day tops. It worked pretty well for a long time, then it didnt.
I dont use cycles that much, trusting to the pattern. this pattern could result in a pullback to 21dma, or with more upside.
Again, the end of a bull market stocks go up in face of worse economy, thinking is just a pause.
BTW, car sales usually get worse just before the economy drops into a recession, so they are still doing ok, so economy is not yet falling apart
Funny, my target for sds today was 35.45, but got out early just to be safe, had I waited would have not lost any money at all!
Out with small loss at sds 35.25.
Dumb and dumber. but still in the game. lost about 1/2% of my money, not much, being short this insane market.
Am actually a little up since late may, but lost a lot in jan to may, shorting!
Worst year since 1995, when I was also short all year. When will he ever learn?
The end is near! The sky is falling! My gf is pregnant, and I am a lucky guy.
You dont think we drop to 171 first? Chart looks like that to me, sideways into next week, then up and up and up.
Insane, but market went up into Oct 2007 with mortgage companies going under at record rates.
Final tick over 800, and interday over 1500 at one point.
blow off top, but could still go up to spx 1750 next week, so not time to sell the farm and short just yet.
Am looking to sell my sds on a pullback to 1710 by friday, would not lose much money if that happens.
Dumb and dumber.
Fortunately, I am never wrong, so nobody has to comment on the veracity of my posts.
This is the worst year i have had since 1995, when i also kept shorting.
Ouch.
down about 10% on the year, big loss on gold too.
I should do the things i think are too risky and not the ones that seem sane. risky ideas all pan out, sane ones dont.
Doubled down on sds at 34.95, now 100% short, but my breakeven is 35.6, which is a probable target this week.
Was going to buy some gld, but chickened out.
spx futures up 1% on news, ouch.
I posted that I was suspicious of going short before the fed meeting, and should have known better.
a moment of patience can prevent a mistake, a moment of impatience can lead to a disaster
Assume Summers withdrawing is good for the market.
congress on the other hand is bad for the market, as they go to the wire about funding the govt.
Maybe up big monday, then sell off into govt shutdown news?
But also, probably they come up with some accord at the last minute, like they keep doing the past couple years.
going to be volatile, and the up into fed now looks likely, since I am heavily short.
Going to be a big day monday, could be upside, and if we go up into fed, time to short more.
Tops take a long time to form, we are at inflection point, my gut says to be short.
Have been watching the sentiment numbers since 1986,and it is not an exact science. However, the numbers are close enough to support that we are at a top.
Jut put another 20%in long the sds at 35.34 afterhours.
50% long the sds.
Will wait for a more clear signal to put the rest of my money in short.
CBOE put call numbers as bearish as at anytime in past 4 years, AAII bearish, but pattern is not clear.
Enjoy the weekend.
jsut pust 30% of my assets long the sds afterhours at 36.4.
top is forming, could be 1% higher, but not much more than that.
CBOE numbers are very bearish in what they are saying, AAII also bearish numbers.
Look like, smells like, tastes like, but is it really a top?
Want to be short so bad, but pattern suggests more upside into next week. I would not want to be heavily long, as the drop will be sudden and quick.
Topping patterns are so tricky to forecast, bottoms are much easier.
Enjoy the weekend, things are twisting and turning in the wind on this end, but it is all about how I react to it that counts.
This might be of interest:
http://decisionpoint.com/TAC/MCCLELLAN.html
Just put 20% of my money long sds in afterhours at 36.35.
Wish me luck. Will hold this time, and double up if we keep rallying into next weeks fed meeting.
No clear sell, but guy says top is almost here.
I will load up on gold below $1200. Eventually it goes to $2400 in next couple years, after that who knows?
Dumped my 40% long in qid at a small profit, enough to take my ex out to a fancy dinner.
She came back last night and says she cant live without me.
And she is pregnant with my child.
Just made a long term investment that does not have an easy exit strategy. I remember the night, OOPS!
Wish me luck. Funny, first baby at 62. GF is 37 and hot, what was I thinking?
btw, 2 days of equity put call on the cboe below .5 is a serious concern for the bulls
Love to be fully margined short, as market hit my target of spx 1680
Doubled my short buying more qid at 19.45 at the open, will dump if we drop tomorow for a small gain, if lucky.
Love to call this a major top, but does not feel right. I would not want to be fully margined long, but shorting too heavily could be painful, as irrational exuberance is the market mood now.
Will wait until tomorrow to short. Of course, alternative possibility is this is beginning of new rally!
Nothing would surprise me. 5 day trin is lowest I have seen in a long time, but nothing works anymore.
Not enough lack of fear to be sure is a top yet.