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Well, well, well, The Rock at Stockhouse, with his usual excellent DD, brings up the 1997 Teck feasibility study forecasting up to 280,000 oz./yr. for our mine!
His analysis of the facts is always 1st class. He thinks Fifer will sell based on the quick money. I think he will not sell based on his personality.
EITHER WAY!! The true value of the company will be recognized as a potential mid-tier at the least. I imagine that an update of Teck's study, now that we know there is a lot of gold in Oro del Norte, would be a much higher production potential.
Oh well...July... November,...whatever..at least I had the year right!! The problem is Tom B. does not always get his PRs out on time and then there was the lightening, crappy maintenance, and I thought they had enough engineers to dig a big enough hole!!!
If the warrants are called because we were above $1.00 for 30 days.
So, if they are trying to raise cash by selling large chunks, they must do it very carefully. Actually, my bet is that the warrant holders can write checks from their current personal checking accounts to cover them if they are called. I think the volume is new outside demand and some profit taking with the sales rather than a need to raise money.
Nuts!! You're no fun. 2,200 T/D yields 84,000 oz/yr.. 5,500 T/D divided by 2,200 T/D X 84,000 oz/yr = 210,000 oz/yr.. Plus, Oro del Norte mix will be at a higher oz/t grade. Plus 50,000 oz/yr. from heap leaching = 260,000 oz/yr.. Hell, I'm being conservative at 200,000 oz/yr.. If you wait for 43-101's to be published you miss the boat, or train,or whatever. Do some deep DD and pay attention to what the numbers are telling you. $1,500.00 gold will be here before year's end thanks to good old Ben B..
Did you crank out all my numbers yet per the post? #4592. FY 2012 is only six month,s away and the above numbers will be pretty close for that year!!! Chuck your bench marks and get ready to pay off those student loans, although with the inflation coming and associated interest hikes they may be pretty cheap money to use for investment.
Remember back in July and August I was all alone in my highly criticized hyperbolic screaming trying to get you to sell everything, but the dog, and buy all the shares you possibly could?
PDI will be worth $2.00/share a year after spin out and PTQ may be closer to $10.00/share than $7.50 at the end of FY 2012. I'll stop in to say, "I TOLD YOU SO!!!"
Perhaps, but most of the others do not have near the potential nor stability of Petaquilla. The reserves that will be coming out soon are huge, world class resources. The PDI situation is huge. Most of the "peer" junior miners are just that, miners with limited reserves and potential. PTQ may have more copper let alone gold than the deposit sold to Inmet.
I sort of like 15X earnings. Figure out what that would be at 200,000 oz./yr. and twenty year mine life for the gold. Use gold at $1,500/oz and direct cost of $600.00/oz. Then factor in another 20% for the value of PDI. Divide it all by the OS at 128,000,000 or the fully diluted value and see what you get at 15XEPS. This still leaves the huge explorations coming as a cushion. With no debt and a lot of stuff that will be capitalized retroactively we should be very, very profitable.
Very interesting. By the way really heavy rains today, spin off from T.S. Tomas. Combine that with the disruption from the movement of the Tropical Int. Zone movement and we really have a mess. This will be ultimate test of preparations. If we have no problems for the next 48 hours we should be in the clear from now on.
Petaquilla. I heard that they are buying in USA, Germany, and Canada. You can see some of their activity on www.stockwatch.com
using T.PTQ and "Canada". This just covers the last few minutes of the day and several thousand shares, but there was a lot more.
Of course, the important things is not the amount, but that they and probably everyone else have taken notice.
When we get to $4.00/share that will free up a lot of margin money that cannot be invested in a stock below $4.00/share.
Thanks, I had no clue. Merrill Lynch a big buyer today. That is very good news.
We will close above $1.00 for the second day. Anyone understand post #4577??
Do not understand. What is this post?
You make an excellent point...there comes a time when having money becomes secondary to most people's aspirations. Fifer has all the money he could ever need. However, as you say, Petaquilla is a symbol of power. He would not have held the positions he has in the government if he did not enjoy power and its symbols.
You can witness that drive in the run for election in California, where the two women spent over two-hundred million dollars of their own money in an attempt to obtain power.
In addition, Petquilla is investing millions of dollars lifting up the humble people of the entire area. This effort will be expanded as the company becomes profitable. This can also pay big dividends come the 2019 election when Fifer will be about 63 yrs. old. He is much like Martinelli sort of a neo-populist with pragmatic capitalism and progressive socialism ideals similar to Lula of Brazil.
Personally, I look for an annual dividend of $1.00, about the size of the share price last week. Just wait a couple of years!
I respect this poster and he has done some really fine analysis. However, in this case I do not agree with him. Knowing Fifer, and his roots in Panama, he is in no hurry and has no reason to want to sell his, soon to be debt free, little gem.
My guess is that he will develop all of the holdings over time and hold the keys to all of the safes. You cannot in life be better positioned, and in a safer secured environment than he is presently.
Panama will soon be the richest country,(PGDP), in Latin America, with world class amenities. He will head a huge multi-arm company. I don't believe he will ever sell. He is even young enough and connected to run for President some day.
Nothing personal, I wish him well. Just couldn't resist after he made the offer way back when. I was hoping my post would get him back on the board with his caustic cracks, albeit not always well thought out. I think the board misses him too. Sort of an off-beat Dilbert.
News report: CI running naked through Vancouver,B.C. screaming Fifer is an idiot!!!
Germany @$1.05 USD this AM!
Attorney said to publish structure on web site so that there is no possible misinterpretation of requirement by closing above $1.00/share.
Also publishes again, for the record, the call parameters at the bottom of the page. This makes it much easier to take action at the end of the thirty days. Sort of puts the world on notice, which may not be required by law, but makes life easier.
5,349,960 shares traded Germany today! They must have read that article! With Canada and the US thrown in that is 8,427,584 shares!
When you take out the big block holders and institution/mutual fund holdings that must be about 10 or 12% of the float. IMO we will continue to move up through the end of the month, particularly if we get a good production up date this week.
I can translate, but it is too long. Basically it reiterates everything that we already know about the potential of Petaquilla. Nothing new...we already know it is a great buy with great potential.
Make it simple...think of it as investing in Wal-Mart when they only had 150 stores.
Send Post # 4226 to Tom Byrne today!! Want that production up date this week. Closed above $1.00/share...one day down 29 to go!!! $15,000,000.00 payday or less potential dilution when warrants are called!!!!
Germany @$0.95 USD good volume!
Thanks for your kind thoughts. I await your analysis.
Tax implications are HUGE! More so after January 1, 2011 for US citizens. Please, please, give the attorneys all the time they need to figure this out. A mistake could cost someone a very large chunk of cash. You could be talking six or even seven figures for a large holder.
Infrastructure Plans:
"The Government has an ambitious investment portfolio that reaches the sum of $ 4 billion 977 million for 34 infrastructure projects. Of these, the Metro is one of the most expensive and will require much labor.
A list join the City Government, several hospitals, airports, sanitation of the bay, and three dozen road projects that will create about 34 thousand jobs."
This is lifted, and butchered by Google English Translation, from an article in La Prensa today lamenting a shortage of skilled labor in Panama. The point being that PDI has license, capability, hundreds of skilled Panamanian workers, expert infracstructure engineering, and is located right in the middle of the area that the government chooses to concentrate development. The company is local, connected, and "listo".
FWIW, I am investor and believe in Buffett's statement that you should never own a company for ten minutes that you are not willing to own for ten years! Accordingly, PTQ is now my only investment in equities and I have greatly increased my holdings as we rose up from the $0.30 bottom. If anything my horizon has lengthened and I'm thinking next generation. I am sure that money will be made and lost over the years, but I do not want to say I sold 'my field of diamonds'. GLTA and thanks for your insights!
Over $3,000,000.00 traded today.
Jal, Let's start the question list for the AGM:
1. Record date for PDI?
2. Date 5,500 T/D expansion finished?
3. Date heap leaching actually to begin?
4. Date new 43-101 to be filed re: heap leach reserves.
5. Refinance status.
6. Company intention as to warrant call?
7. Date ODN 43-101 expected.
8. Q2 Production up date.
9. Status of PDI hydro project?
10. Status of evaluation scheduled release.
11. Status of impact study for ODN development.
That is all I can think of at the moment. I am sure there are others. If we get the questions out now they have time to work the answers into their corporate presentation.
LOL...when we start processing 50,000 T/D we will be on the list.
The President didn't invite us to the White House either...but life goes on....2,200 T/D is usually not on the "A" List!!
This company along with KD are well known and respected. Tucson is the center of a huge mining district the tailings mountain south of Tucson along Hwy 19 is several hundred feet tall and goes for miles. There is a huge mine in Superior and also San Miguel.
We are in good hands. No worries!
Sorry about date mistake. I believe ODN Au/T is higher than anything we are mining now. Infrastructure will be by PDI. I believe the Tucan deposit is only 3 Klm from plant and is highest assay.
Greestone's operations at Santa Rosa were a disaster IMHO and set back mining in Panama. If I remember they ended up with strikes, contamination charges, bankruptcy, and insufficient reserves. Their plan was poorly conceived, executed and many contractor were hurt IMO. There are a lot of court records if you are interested.
IMO the Petaquilla team with the support from the Tucson company is a whole different world. They will run a much more efficient operation and recover a much higher percentage of the gold much quicker.
Actually, I am not concerned about the rate of extraction since IMO gold will be going up for many more years due to poor fiscal policies nearly everywhere. In addition, this is extra gravy for Petaquilla...Santa Rosa was only looking for 60,000 oz./yr. full production.
If they get the pads dug and loaded during the dry season by June 2011, I think they will be fully on stream by end of FY Q3 2011 and start contributing to the production in a meaningful way by the Q4 of FY 2011. (May 31, 2011). FY 2012 should show the full 50,000 oz. of production and with the doubling of the plant to 5,500 T/D we should produce between 175,000oz.- 200,000oz.for FY 2012. At $1,500.00 gold that would be about $300,000,000.00 of revenue in FY 2012.
By the way with the nearly doubling of reserves today, does that not decrease the 6% owed to DB down to 3% of the reserves? When ODN come in I'll bet the DB will only be a commitment of 1% of reserves.
Rainy season helps heap leaching!! The idea is to complete the construction of the pads that are lined with impermeable plastic during the dry season. I am very familiar with the Tucson company and with heap leaching done in Arizona in Superior, Green Valley, etc. Out there, it is necessary to install expensive sprinkler systems and/or drip systems to stop evaporation and provide the millions of gallons required. This is expensive!
In the tropics the rainy season provides the much needed water and the pads are much cheaper to use. The only caveat is that the rain does not cause over topping and I am sure the company learned their lesson last August. I don't understand that people make statements about efficacy of the process when they have never seen it or know how it works. Hopefully, they will have a pad built and filled prior to he heavy rains, so that it will work immediately in June.
They have nearly 500 sq. klm. of space so I don't think that will be a problem! Without all of the extra infrastructure required in desert areas, I am sure that $500.00 direct cost is reasonable. In addition PDI has $9,000,000.00 for equipment and some of the money for construction and process will stay in house, albeit in another account.
Rainy season is over in 30 days. Pad will be substantially completed before rain starts in May. Seasons: 1. Dry December through April. 2. Wet May through November.
Monthly averages
°F | °C
January Avg low: NA Avg hi: NA Avg precip: 0.03 in
FebruaryAvg low: NA Avg hi: NA Avg precip: 0.01 in
March Avg low: 77° Avg hi: 87° Avg precip: 0.04 in
April Avg low: 78° Avg hi: 87° Avg precip: 0.28 in
May Avg low: 79° Avg hi: 88° Avg precip: 2.39 in
June Avg low: NA Avg hi: NA Avg precip: 2.65 in
July Avg low: NA Avg hi: NA Avg precip: 3.04 in
August Avg low: 79° Avg hi: 88° Avg precip: 2.63 in
SeptemberAvg low: 78° Avg hi: 88° Avg precip: 4.05 in
October Avg low: 78° Avg hi: 87° Avg precip: 5.17 in
NovemberAvg low: 78° Avg hi: 87° Avg precip: 3.59 in
DecemberAvg low: 76° Avg hi: 87° Avg precip: 1.24 in
Damn, Tom reacted quickly to my post!!!
You are absolutely correct most posters are always late to understand. This doubles resources and is an inexpensive way to get the gold since you only have to plant trees afterwords and not ecologically renovate the pads!
Costs will be extremely low. You must be more familiar with the process of the by product. More or less $500.00/oz.
See post#4226!!TOM!!PR due this week!
Trading now at $0.87 USD Germany.
Anski100, read my post 4407. That is your answer.
Do not miss the last part of the sentence!!! Foreign governments "will need to establish a legal structure". This means in Panama where the entity will be governed by Panamanian Law.
Remember...Fifer&Martinelli founders of CD. Martinelli control all three branches of government and CD will be in power at least nine more years. THUS FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS,(i.e. Korea et al),investing in Panama under direct control of Martinelli & indirect control of Fifer. THINK PDI!! Do not tug on Superman's Cape when granting contracts.
Exactly...and the same investors may be on both sides with behind the scenes side agreements.
Agreed. I really want to see that October production update PR next week to see if we have poured 13,000-14,000 oz. in the last two months!!! Now is crunch time right in the middle of the worst of the rainy season. If they can deliver 18,000-20,000oz.for Q2 and have direct production costs below $650.00 I will be a very satisfied investor!!
Not exactly. It is always a tangled interwoven web in Latin America.
You have informal government control and as Martinelli said in Korea, he will change whatever laws are necessary to make things happen. Remember he controls all three branches of government.
My point was that Petaquilla is the showcase darling of the government on how mining should be done. It is contributing much to the pueblo and to the government putting it in a favorable trade balance with Canada.
When all is said and done the government owns Cobre Panama. When you have that sort of power, oversight, and probable personal financial interest of the movers and shakers on both sides of the equation, there will be a smooth cooperation between all parties for the good of the country and those with vested interests. (i.e. stockholders)