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buy the rumor, sell the news will prevail this week. When they finally agree to some nonsense agreement that does not solve anything, markets will rally and then fall.
Just my opinion.
Was thinking of shorting heavily at the close, but the high trin worries me. I have seen this before at the beginning of a rally, and it is bullish.
Why oh why did I not go long on wednesday, when I got a clear buy signal? At least i covered my short by selling my qid.
Of course now we see a massive collapse on monday as am not going short.
Was thinking of shorting heavily at the close, but the high trin worries me. I have seen this before at the beginning of a rally, and it is bullish.
Why oh why did I not go long on wednesday, when I got a clear buy signal? At least i covered my short by selling my qid.
Of course now we see a massive collapse on monday as am not going short.
Timing is everything. The naz was just 3 months from a top in jan 2000, yet it almost doubled in the last 3 months. I shorted housing stocks in june 2005 and they went up 30% in the next 2 monrths, before dropping big time for the next 6 years.
Want to buy gold, but not yet.
spot gold down more percentage wise than GLD. Gld moves with the market more than with gold prices, why is not a reliable investment in my opinion.
This market is driving me crazy! Want to short, but looks like up and up again.
They cut $38.50, am amazed at their discipline. thank god our elected leaders care so much for the future of America, and the health and welfare of the majority of the people.
Last time gold fell hard, GLD fell more than the metal. This time, is not falling as much as the metal.
What does that mean, I have no idea. Probably because i owned gld then, and would have been short now. market never does what I want!
Support for gld? I see 118 as a major buy point.
too much worry among options players after such a small correction, supports a run to new highs on nasd but not spx.
That would be a purrfect topping formations, and fool almost everyone, including me!
1800 on spx, amazing.
I will look at shorting again around spx 1700, not sure what is going on, best to do nothing for now.
It may take a big drop (and that is only a 3% drop, we had more than that every day in sept-oct 08) to end this correction.
And if they delay past friday, then we could see a 1000 pt drop in a day, again not that much in historical terms.
H
Every time I get greedy, I lose money.
Sold my 60% of qid at 20, my original target when I bought it last week. My gut is it will go a lot higher in the next couple weeks, so may jump back in with a smaller position later this week, if it looks logical.
Trend is down, play the drops, not the rallies.
Next support last major bottom at spx 1625, should hold for a couple hours or maybe a couple days, but 1560 is where the real major support is at.
Big minus tick and high trin says bottom is close, but not every indicator works every time. Will cover my short by selling my qid tomorrow morning.
no worries in options, so we go down big today or by the end of the week. Would not be playing the bounce yet, wait for trin over 2, and put call over 1.4 on cboe to give clear buy
oops, jumped the gun a bit. We either break the line, then go back up to it, bounce for a few days, or break it and crash.
All will be revealed soon.
We broke important trend line just now, next support at 1560.
Maybe not a crash, but 1560 looks likely to me
Then we are going to have a crash, if their is a debt ceiling shut down, etc.
If it goes on long enough, then we have a serious recession.
Thank god our politicians are there to serve the american publics interest.
I am going to be the father of a bouncing baby boy! Genetics test confirmed the baby has no genetic defects, and is a boy.
Not recommending anyone else make the same investment, but am pretty happy so far with the way mine is progressing.
Now lets see a market crash.
Agreed, this is last man standing, and both sides could care less about the american people, they only care about their agenda.
I support one side strongly, but my political opinion is irrelevent, what is important is how those decisions will affect the market
obama is not giving in, but gop will evenatually. The gop is getting what it wants with shutdown, obama will too, only american people lose, and who cares about them?
Cant believe with Boehner and gop saying they will shut down the govt, futures are up tonight!
maybe all that matters is the fed pumping money, and the economy and earnings are not relevent.
This is the most confusing market I have ever seen.
New moon top today, not a perfect timing device, but if it is right, then the low is not due until the full moon in two weeks.
Also today marked the end of the first 4 trading days of the month, and that is usually a good time to sell.
If they reach an agreement on the budget but not the debt ceiling, or not on either, look out below monday is my prediction. If by some miracle they do find a compromise, then could have a 2% rally, and that would be the top.
Too little real fear going on for this to be another rally that lasts, and on daily basis, lower highes still holding up.
Options players are bullish this morning, which is bearish, as the market has been weak. NOt the best indicator, but helps in this situation. if they were overwhelmingly buying puts, would be a worry to bears. Now, when the market tanks and they buy puts, is not as clear an indicator.
Might add to short if all fits later today, but looks like we go donw now.
I also added to my short just now, 20% qid at 18.85, now 60% short via qid, avg price 18.75
Anybody make any sense of the action in GLD? I should just not watch it anymore, impossible to figure out what it all means.
Still short my 40%, wish I had bought more this morning, but woulda, coulda, shoulda.
Looking for very high trin to cover my short.
TRied to buy more qid at the close, but missed by pennies. Looking like a solid top, not everyting fits, but pretty close.
Will keep the 60% for if we rally up more, but does not seem likely. If we break 1853 tomorrow (unlikely) then the correction could turn into a route very fast. More likely slowly down with a day down over 2% to close the decline later this month.
With friends like this: Dear friend of mine, great guy, is a perfect counter inidicator. I wanted to buy KBH in nov 2011, he said RE was dead. He got super bullish on RE in the spring this year.
He also talked me out of buying NFLX below 60 last year, as it was dead in the water according to him.
He and my brother are not good at investing or trading. SELL RE
doubled up at qid 18.6, now 40% short via qid.
Still possible higher into friday, will short more if that happens.
Important support at spx 1650 (rising about 1 pt a day), but even more important support at 15502, also rising a point a day.
If you look at last 2 bears, they first break the recent trend line then rally back to it, then when they break the more important one, the bear has officially begun.
If the shutdown continues another couple weeks, we are in a recession and the fed can only push on a string. Dont see a 50% drop next year, but anything is possible. I only saw housing dropping 20 to 30% in 2006, and I was wrong, it fell 50% in my area.
Keeping fingers crossed for genetics test on my baby, GF is 37 and old for having a baby with downs syndrom, would kill me if the baby has it, will know by friday. Seems more important to me than the market.
BTW, I covered my qid at 18.9 for a small profit, and just put 20% into qid again at 18.7 will buy more if we keep rallying today.
No relief rally is my best guess, as buy the rumor, sell the news.
And both sides cant give in, so now what happens?
Me too, good on very short term, terrible on daily timing.
Pretty short again, although my gut says higher into friday
doubled up, now 40% long qid at 19.7, avg price 19.85
Looking for 20 later this week or next, will buy more if I get a solid sell at the close.
Major top, govt shut down is not good for earnings, and the market will start to see that soon. my gut is tea party will not pass a budget, and obama will not back down anytime soon.
Buy the rumor, sell the fact. Or in this case, buy. But the selling has not exactly been very strong this past week.
I remember the market went down 11 days in a row back in 1987, so we can easily drop a lot more in the next couple weeks.
I expected a top this friday, but now could be the opposit.
Am holding short until I see a serious buy signal, and will add to my short if we have a big up day anytime soon.
A general comment: Sentiment has been so bullish for so long, it will take a serious bearish bent before we get a significant bottom. So any one day "scare" will not end this decline. On the other hand, will it turn into a crash is unlikely, with Ben wanting to go out on top.
BTW, when Greenspan came in, we had a 35% correction soon after, and soon after ben came in, we had a 55% drop.
New fed chairman may not be good for the market.
This is for oddlot: I have learned in my life, that letting people know they are doing something valuable, like what you are doing on the board, is worth pointing out. Am always honest in my compliments, and I bet you were one of the most valuable posters on CS, as you are now.
BTW, the way I have cultivated a deep connection to a beautiful woman almost half my age, was with compliments and poetry, not my looks, my money, or my fame. Women eat up compliments, when they are honest. At one point she got upset and said all I had put her on a pedestal, and was not realistic about who she was. I then told her she was a lonely, frightened, sad little girl, but she also had the most beautiful heart I have ever known. She has never again complained when I give her compliments.
Market going down, but a rally for a couple days is always possible.
put 20% of my money into qid at 19, could have 2 day rally and will go more heavily short, but looks like this decline has only just begun
The president and congress would never stoop to such low behavior as caring more about their own election and agenda than what is best for the american people!
I also believe in Santa claus and the easter bunny.
IS not about the political situation, is about the economy, and a shut down will send us into a recession.
A big drop, then a rally with 2% moves most days is a clear final top.
BTW,, the rally from last november was the 3rd longest without a 10% correction in the past 25 years.
So assuming at least a 10% correction into november, or down to 1560
163 makes sense, and yes the move down is only half over. Have bought at every serious turn in past couple years, but never hold long enough. Dont see any bottom yet, need to get seriously oversold first.
Funny, the fed anouncement was the sell, or the next morning for sure.
Short on any 2 day rally, until we get a solid buy signal.
Trading gold is frustrating, as after 27 years trying to make money at it, am almost ready to give up!
Like anything, a long decline with 2 big down days, BUY