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RE "What do you think our pipeline is worth"
Newsflash! There is NO pipeline.
If Avid as an independent business can scratch out a profit this stock may hold 20 cents (4 pennies pre-reverse). But that assumes no more increase in shares (dilution), and that would be a really bad assumption.
That's also looking a couple years ahead, so that's completely meaningless.
Remember, however bad one thinks this can go, reality will be worse.
Always has been........
PPHM's Bavituximab Oncology page lists collaborations with AZ and NCCN.
What the heck happened to MSK???????????
Anybody remember all the optimism when MSK said there were going to play with Bavi?
Did I miss a PR or something buried in a filing? Has MSK fallen into the black hole of PPHM failures like everything else they've every touched?
RE "Bavituximab is part of the cure"
Reality check!
Bavi has been in trials for 10+ YEARS.
It hasn't shown any ability to cure anything!
RE "Peregrine already has everything they need to rule Big Pharma"
Oh, has a new mystery drug just been discovered?
Cotara was a bust.
Bavi was a bust.
PPHM has nothing but a little drug manufacturing company and bleeds red ink.
Dilution has been abusive.
Cash burn extreme - and wasteful.
Stock has lost almost all it's value over the time Bavi/Tarvacin has been around.
A reverse split about 7 years ago and another one most likely on the way soon.
ANY big pharma could buy PPHM for chump change, and they don't.
RE "the end to the lengthy history of ownership dilution(has gone on long enough), validation via comprehensive partnership with major BP, expense reduction via upper management and board compensation cuts and other belt tightening measures"
You are absolutely correct.
But the sad reality is that prescription has ZERO% chance of happening.
Which is one of the many reasons the stock has LOST more than 90% of it's value since "Bavi the wonderdrug" has come along.
Realists realistic PPHM predictions for this years ASCO!
Nothing..........
Nothing of importance that would get the market interested in this loser.
Same as every other year.
Let's see if my 100% correct predictions record continues!
RE "any sudden upward blips get smacked down fast.... why day in and day out? ."
Simple. Nearly endless supply of bag holders happy to take the market price rather than less later.
Remember, PPHM KNOWS dilution!
And cash burn,
And failure.
That's about it.
$.06672 is PPHM stock price as I type this (pre-reverse).
If PPHM management tried to run the price into the ground they couldn't have done any better.
Avid? Are you kidding me?
Really sick thing is these guys still get rich and I'll probably have to start saying "pre-pre-reverse" after the next reverse split!
Think they'll sell millions of shares thru the ATM at even lower prices than this?
I certainly do.
Guess where PPHM is going?
LOWER.
Just curious if anyone knows what percent of PPHM employees have been layed of since the phase III failed so that cash burn and dilution will be reduced. This is standard procedure for biotech companys.
Excuse me, biotech companies that actually care about shareholder value.
RE "we are better of then after the dose switching PR in 2012."
Let's examine reality:
1. Share count in Jan 2012 about 87 million.
Share count over 227 million!
2. Authorized share 325 million, now 500 million.
3. Want to talk science? ANOTHER FAILED trial.
So bad they are giving up on Bavi with Chemo.
Bavi viral already failed years ago.
Now it's Bavi with I/O. Why? Because it's the "in" thing now.
Remember bird flu, Ebola, etc? Just more opportunistic BS by a
company run for the insiders, that has proven many times they
have no regard for shareholders or shareholder value.
What will be next? Bavi with a dry martini?
4. Poison pill renewed which REMOVES the possibility of interested
parties being able to buy large quantities of stock at the market.
5. NASDAQ deficiency letter and another reverse split looming.
6. Last but certainly not least, another FOUR WASTED YEARS.
RE "we are neither going to change the BoD nor the Delaware Law or the PPHM by-laws."
Just a couple of the MANY reasons investors avoid this farce of a company.
And there it is. Another NASDAQ deficiency PR.
History does repeat with this company, and it's always bad.
With another reverse split looming and unending dilution to look forward to (at prices which will mean massive volume) this disaster has no where to go but DOWN.
Remember, Realist always said it would be like this!
RE "Scientists are also learning that other immune cells, besides T
cells, have checkpoints, and drugs targeting these molecules are
in development as well. ...........
blah blah blah........
Breadcrumb trial of science factoids has NEVER meant ANYTHING to the PPS of PPHM stock! NEVER. FACT is that it has dropped over 90% over the last 10+ YEARS of Bavi/Tarvacin existence and all the science papers/conferences/factoids. ONLY thing that will move stock up is REAL data from phase 2 or 3. It's that simple.
And that's not going to happen for very long time or ever - BUT the negatives are very real and ever present and only going to become more obvious.
Reality check!
What's coming up for PPHM?
1. Next Monday (most likely) a PR notifying the world that NASDAQ has sent PPHM a "deficiency notice".
2. Cash burn.
3. DILUTION.
4. The same failures running the company and being grossly over compensated.
5. Nothing to look forward to as far as data (ONLY thing that can move stock up) for a very very long time.
6. Probably a reverse split with authorized shares staying the same - just like last time. Which puts shares into the BILLIONS and BILLIONS when taking out the effects of the last reverse and the next reverse.
Guess where the stock is headed?
YUP, remember, Realist1 said it would be like this!
As I predicted, Poison pill updated. Absolutely zero surprise. These guys are 100% predictable. ONLY purpose of a poison pill is to entrench management/BOD in their positions. Period end of story. It is "marketed" as protecting shareholders, but is of course opposite as with most things that benefit the few at the top. They keep the power. Just look what they've done with it! Got rich while destroying shareholder value.
This ensures that Management/BOD can continue the status quo. Nearly unlimited dilution and keeping CASH flowing to THEM.
Nothing will ever change with this company.
Next prediction: authorized shares WILL NOT be reversed with a reverse split. Dilution into oblivion well on pace, and the boys that destroyed shareholder value will still get paid big money in the process.
Realist said it would be like this.
RE "A good fair partnership with upfront money heals all.
: It validates the science.
: It likely pushes the value of the company and the share price to a more reasonable and acceptable rate.
: It provides needed resources to proceed with more trials.
: It limits dilution.
: It proves that this management team is on top of their game and heals long held, old wounds. "
Absolutely. and I made that point years and years ago.
But it's too late now. No one is going to be willing to pay decent money for a failed drug. The boys at PPHM should have taken a deal years ago, but would rather dilute their shareholders to keep control of their personal money machine.
RE "Management needs to understand that additional fund raising will be uber difficult and prohibitively dilutive"
Oh, I'm quite sure they understand that, they just don't care.
RE "Why go thru another reverse unless back up with a sale of the company otherwise we will back down to .39 "
Good question, but you're thinking like a shareholder, NOT PPHM management/BOD.
They don't care about stock price, they care about having unlimited dilutive power.
REALISTS next prediction:
When the reverse happens, authorized shares will NOT be reversed split - same as last time.
You heard it here first!
The only Billions involving PPHM will be reverse split adjusted SHARES of stock. Actually it's already there.
RE "They have sufficient cash for at least 4 yrs if they play the cards right"
That would mean massive layoffs, and do no trials
NOT going to happen.
CASH is "burning" as we speak.
ATM will be run - at any price. Haven't they made it quite clear that they don't give a crap about shareholders?
RE "10:1 reverse split".
So anyone that has been a shareholder since before the 2009 1:5 reverse split would hold 1 share for every 50 they used to have.
Also give PPHM TEN times the dilutive power if they keep the authorized the same - which they did last time!
There's no telling how low this goes.
RE "Do you believe if the poison pill is gone"
Mark this post.
The poison pill for PPHM will NOT be gone.
Poison pills purpose it to entrench management/BOD in power NOT to protect shareholders. No way will these boys give up their power. Poison pill will be renewed - take it to the bank.
RE "We now own a manufacturing company."
A ridiculously over valued one at that.
Price a large multiple of sales, and God only knows how extreme the P/E (if there are any net profits for Avid if PPHM ever splits out SG&A).......
RE " Bring in a CEO with the proper skill set"
Here's the bottom line. CEO's job is to create shareholder value - period.
Here's the FACTS on that.
Steve King started March 17th, 2003.
http://ir.peregrineinc.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=266214
I'm seeing historical stock price on that date of $2.95 (adjusts for 1:5 reverse split) and a current stock price of $.3951.
That's a LOSS of $2.5549 or 86.6%.
That's right 86.6% LOSS in price over that time frame.
Very close to 13 YEARS.
That's got to be in the BOTTOM 1% of performance.
If that doesn't deserve replacement, what the heck does?
FACTS, not "spin"
RE "no deal by ASM I'm gone for good"
LOL - there's not going to be a deal.
It's a dog eat dog world out there - it's BUSINESS - that's reality.
BP can just let PPHM die a slow death.
More and more shares at lower and lower prices to raise cash will eventually put them barely operational.
By the ASM the next reverse split will already be known to be coming.
How many investors you think are going to be buying a perennial dilution machine with failed science , failed leadership, and a looming reverse split? Fuggettaboutit. ATM sales with almost no buying interest based on what I said above will crush the price. You think $.40 is low? LOL - you aint seen nothing yet!
How much can an investor LOSE buying a stock as low as 40 pennies (8 pennies pre reverse)? Answer - 100% of the investment.
Same is true at 10 cent's, 5 cents and 1 cent.
RE "Biggest ShortTerm Hurdle: PoisonPill"
NOT. Reality is that a PP is to protect the BOD/management. To entrench them in power - NOT to protect shareholders.
BEST thing that could happen for PPHM common shareholders is NO poison pill. I give you 100% certainty that PPHM will NOT allow the PP to lapse.
And they'll be doing it for their personal interests, NOT yours.
Mark this post, my record of being 100% correct about this company will be intact.
RE "Do you think we are not capable of getting $2-$3 (and contingent value rights), or we just don't want to."
1. The company is not worth that. To get that kind of huge money (and it is huge now after Sunrise failure and given the huge share count) PPHM would have to PROVE with trials that Bavi can do some good. They haven't - end of story.
2. In the highly unlikely event such an offer were to come, it's doubtful the boys in Tustin would take it. Why give up their perennial "piggy bank"? ONLY chance you have there is if the offer were to somehow leak out. That would force accountability or lawsuits or at least one of those short term sellable spikes. I wouldn't hold my breath though......
RE "A monetary deal will say it does work"
No kidding? I've said that for YEARS. But the result has been a disaster.
1. No one wants to put up the money. OR
2. King and crew were too stupid to take it!
Choose your poison. LOSE/LOSE.
The share price took care of itself.
RE "The contempt for retail continues unabated"
Because they know there's nothing anyone can do about it.
They've got things structured to win any vote with non-votes going into their column.
Their track record speaks for itself.
NO regard whatsoever for shareholders and they will dilute at ANY price to keep their fat paychecks coming in. THAT is the only sure thing with PPHM. The trials are a dice roll at best, but the destruction of shareholder value is a given.
Companies like this should be illegal.
RE "A BP will offer $XX Billion (hopefully) for the company."
More fantasy. NOBODY offers a billion for a FAILED drug - nobody.
Ain't gonna happen.
Failed viral failed cancer - back to the drawing board.
massive dilution and wait wait wait wait wait wait wait for data.
Same as always.
RE "King and Company have a Plan and have always had a Plan. "
Newsflash - their plan always fails.
Look no further than a 10X increase in shares outstanding over the 10-12 years, and a 90+% loss in stock price over that same time period.
These boys have proven to be completely clueless.
RE "I see no choice but a deal with CALICO"
Show me ANY biotech company that got bought out AFTER a failed phase III and BEFORE a subsequent trail that had good data. Just one, show me.....
And the dollar amount (if there is any).
RE "you assume revenue per quarter of 6 million"
No, I was using the most recent quarter to PROVE that profits are impossible even if PPHM cut R & D to ZERO.
I understand that Avid sales are supposed to increase.
Also, if Avid sales increase, costs and expenses GO UP with sales.
Point being, there's no chance of profits especially with trials in planning.
PPHM will be diluting at record lows.
Do a little math with me.
a measly $10 million will take 25,000,000 SHARES OF NEWLY ISSUED SHARES OF STOCK. You have any idea what that kind of supply will do to the stock price? The word CRUSHED comes to mind. Which means they'll need more than 25 million shares because the price will likely drop as that process of selling them takes place.
This company will survive through massive dilution as usual, BUT shareholders will be destroyed as usual as well.
Nothing changing.
RE "bank the cash"
AS of Jan. 31st 2016 PPHM listed Total current liabilities of 58,214,000.
The company can't cut expenses to zero today, therefore CASH is still burning and has been burning since 1-31-16. So with only $67 million of cash and $58 million of current liabilities, I realistically ask , what cash?
RE "Peregrine in negotiations with AstraZeneca now"
Link please!
OR............far more realistically, AZ would like to see the actual results of the future trial (still in planning stages) with PPHM to have some DATA then consider their options.
RE " after the split!! "
It's all a matter of perspective.
Reverse splits are good - for PPHM insiders!
You lose most of your shares, BUT they have more shares to dilute with!
That means more years of failed trials while they look for another way to "spin" Bavi while they get rich!
It's all good bro.
Maybe Bavi for colon cleanse?
Oh never mind, they already succeeded with that...
RE "Peregrine showing a profit?"
NOT gonna happen.
Let's look at last Q:
Total Revenue = 6,709,000
Cost of contract manufacturing = 3,896,000
Selling, general and administrative = 4,524,000
Even of R&D went to zero (which it will not)
PPHM would still LOSE money.
Now for the Avid fans.....
Realize that "gross profit" is a meaningless number, and try and calculate if Avid actually makes anything. Your task is to try and decide how much of that $4,524,000 in SG&A goes to PPHM (non Avid) and how much goes to Avid. Once you've made your best guess you can can see what's left for "NET profit" of Avid. Not much I expect. There's a surprise........
RE "True longs are down 90% over the last 10 years."
Correct.
And anyone that "averaged down" simply compounded their losses in terms of absolute dollars. Throwing good money after bad is not a good strategy.
Furthermore, there's been about a BILLION shares of dilution over the last 10+ years. Yes,you read that right! In terms from that time (i.e. pre-reverse split) about a BILLION shares of dilutive stock have been sold that make the insiders rich and the shareholders poor.
Now what's the plan?
Start over again!
Viral failed.
Cancer with chemo failed.
Let's try Bavi with I/O - that hasn't been discredited yet!
How many years and how many more hundreds of millions of shareholder value destroying dilution will be added?
The market certainly gets it!
RE " review the recent progress of its clinical development programs."
Progress? You mean setbacks.....
RE "how about Pfizer with Tremelimumab? "
How much did they get?
Pertinent to PPHM as of now. Can anyone show ANY biotech company that EVER made a big money deal AFTER a phase III failure AND before a trial was later run with good results??????????
If not, please let's focus on reality.