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This is typical/expected price movement given the lack of news. Once the SEC news is released, regarding the DEF 14, this will move briskly through the $.06s to the $.07s/$.08s.
Look what happen in early December when the SEC news was released. We moved from the $.0267 to $.07 in just a couple of weeks.
Any day the announcement is expected. Follow this with 10 days of the grace period, a couple of weeks for the Shareholders Meeting, and shortly thereafter, the announcements will start flowing.
The saving grace is that AMEP continues to working in the background producing results/numbers, while we wait.
Thanks for your update.
I was directed to this site via a posting on another board. Is this Stockseasonality.com product a good product?
A question I have, how can a company have a B and D rating, like CTUM, at the same time?
Thanks.
You are right on. Based on the number of messages getting through on my RB, not on ignore, the basher are running in excess of 80% of the volume.
It make you appreciate the work that people do on this board to make it civil.
I agree with you, but even if we are not dragged into the conflict directly, we will be hammered indirectly when the price of oil goes through the roof.
You are right on. We have moved up nicely with no news and sub 10 million share trading days.
Wait until we roll into the plus 10 million share trading days which we will hit shortly.
I will say something else. I personally lost a meaningful amount of money having to sell shares the last 6 months, which did not make me happy considering the way things were handle. I have a lot left because I made a big bet on CB & AMEP.
I worked in small high technology start ups all my life in management roles, so I could see the brilliance in what CB was pulling together, but the guy that educated me on this opportunity was Greenhawk with his great DD, NOT AMEP.
The answer of running to CB for an update wasn't right then and isn't right now. I suspected the SEC review put a muzzle on the company, but I was told differently. The fact is, which at least I found out the last couple of weeks, it did.
Marketing & communication, especially if you have shareholders, in critical. The way this was handle with the Shareholders was a mess period. Was before the latest launch and still is.
You go talk with all the people that got punched out and scared out losting money the last six months and see how they feel today. I don't think their going to give you a shoulder to cry on.
What do you mean change my mind? Not at all. I have always thought he was brilliant in pulling this together with his limited resources, but the way the last year and specifically the last 7 months was handled was wrong and unnecessary.
A lot of people got hurt in that down draft. We gave the helm over to the bashers, Shorters and MM and they schooled a lot of folks. If you think this was a $02 cent stock with a market value of $13.3 million, you have another thing coming.
I think the market is showing that is this rapid rise.
And let me say one other thing, this is a steal at this price. With what we know and have known, coupled with what is about to be announced in January, February, etc... you are looking at a 3-5 bagger in the near term.
I will let everyone define their own near term.
You cannot stop this train. Wait until the market wakes up and AMEP announces the Shareholders Meeting, which should only be days away.
Lets face it, we are still talking chump change here. Do the math -- 7+ million shares trade @ $.06+ is still only $420k range.
Another fact is that a lot of good, long term minded people hold this stock and are not here for the trade. They continued to buy during the last 7 months waiting for this.
One reason this is moving up so fast is that you have a high demand chasing fewer and fewer shares available, at least for now. The next few days should be interesting.
Great position to be in. Just buckle in.
I happen to be in Texas for a few days. I split my time between Arizona and here. I was going to visit AMEP tomorrow, since Joe offered. He was going to show some people around, so I was going to go along for the ride. He just had to cancel with car problems. With the SEC disclosure, it is just as well.
I did ask him about the announcement of the Shareholders Meeting. HE said YES.
Regarding rain, we have had some rain this fall and we are expecting 2-3 days of thunderstorms early next week. A powerful storm off the Pacific coast is supposed to push a cold blast south causing a significant upper level disturbance up from Mexico and at least 2 days of storms. At least that is what my friendly weather guesser is preaching.
On a longer term note for next year, I read the other days that the El Nino is forcing a strong jet stream across the northern most sections of the country which will cause unusually warmer weather for the North and unusually rainy weather for the South. That is good for us.
Green, I have to run. I will contact you later.
Thanks.
I agree 200%. Someone said that it will blow our minds once we find out what is going on.
We have not heard one thing about the 2nd rig. Can you believe that, a drilling rig sitting there doing nothing for 12 months, or is it? How about, the five or so wells that are either completed and in production or in various stages of completion?
CB is a brilliant man having pulled this company together. He is a successful oil & gas professional, who is very sensitive to the past with the busts in the industry, that is why you have no debt and he pays for everything in cash.
What I am starting to see, as well, is that bringing in the new director, with his powerful financial experience and discipline, was a stroke of genius. CB complimented his expertise with a key ingredient to grow his business.
Now if we can only add a little sales and marketing/communications flare, watch out. This seems to be a rock solid enterprise, that is now having its coming out party.
The longs know that and that is why the price has doubled in a week. Once the myth of the SEC was lifted last Tuesday evening, I start to tell people get in. AMEP formally announcing the Shareholders Meeting and the BDC agenda will get a lot of peoples attention.
Thanks lovegreen, Hawk, ctb and other for your consistent support. Look what a little back door PR will do for this company. Just think what will happen to this company once AMEP take charge of its communications to the marketplace with all that it has lined up to release.
People can say that it can move up to fast. I said, we moved down for 7 months on no news, as a result of the silence with the SEC, yet business and big things were happening in the background. Now it time to take it back to where we belong and then sum.
When do we expect to get the Shareholders Meeting announcement/materials from the company as a follow up to the preliminary proxy statement?
Thanks.
Think about this. The value of the Barnett Shale property on a conservative scale would go for around $50 million (7000 acres X $6,000 per acre), yet the company is only valued today at $13.3 million. Some properties have gone for as much as $13,000 per acre, but no, I am not going to get greedy, I'll cut it in half.
Don't even count the two drilling rigs or 197 PRI wells and the property with reserves of $60 million, will just give them away.
To turn off the lights we get $.10 verses $.027, even with all this good will.
Well said.
You are right on. No one is going to tell CB what to do. The hell with the shareholders.
Based on his performance in drilling this year, or should I say lack there of, he should be announcing very possible thing he could.
If they can announce the Murphy-Nash #1, they can announce the xxxxx, you fill in the blank. Quit screwing with tuning the well to the 5th decimal point.
Then why the September 12th announcement? Are we saying that only certain material event can be announced? That being said, are we saying that we have no other worthy material events since mid May?
You are 100% right on. CB is hiding under a rock and using the cloud of the SEC review as his front.
A lot of good, honest people have gotten burned by this good old boy. Pulling the plug on all communications and performance updates this year, on top of the dismal performance of the company is disgraceful.
If I am the SEC, I would be saying, what are you clowns doing? I did not tell you to stop breathing. We are hear to review the financial and accounting standards of the company historically as a BDC and look to establish an approved framework moving ahead.
What the SEC should be doing is looking into is how this stock is being manipulated by the bashers, shorters and MM.
Thanks, for the insight. This is an explosive stock upward once the SEC release is put forth and the PR releases start.
Question, what if it closes lower? My concern is that until we get word, this thing is like a vessel at sea with no paddles/power and strong headwinds pushing us south.
Why do you say that?
I agree with your list, but what I don't understand is why they are not announcing things as they go. Are we saying that there is nothing to announce, which is a problem in and of itself, or are we saying, we are waiting for the SEC review to be completed, which I think is more the case?
In a discussion with Joe recently, he indicated that the last two 10Q's were done under the review of the SEC, so you know they are clean.
Having said that, the SEC doesn't expect you to shut your business down, but to operate under normal conditions, as the investigation of the BDC conversion proceeds. There are no snake in the wood pile here, as the basher might lead you to believe, but rather we are dealing with changing from one method of reporting to another.
By the very list itself, there is a ton going on that the public knows nothing about.
I want to make a couple of comments and then I have a question/concern. I have posted my comments recently on AMEP that I am not happy with the current silence or valuation.
Having said that, I think the company is using the SEC review, as it pertains to the BDC restructuring, to get its house in order. The basher will try to scare people with their lies and tactics with the SEC's BDC review. In my opinion, it is no big deal whether this is a BDC or an operational entity, other than clarity of reporting and consistency. The operational method is easier to understand and good for both AMEP and shareholders.
The bashers/shorters are using the company silence to intimidate and to create fear in the hearts of the investors. If you look at the company's assets (land, wells/revenue, rigs, etc.) and prospects alone, in a liquidation sales, you could easily get $.10 - $.15 per share, in my opinion. Compare this to the current PPS of $.03, you do the math.
Once the smoke clears, the cock roaches will take cover. Lets face it, such is life down here. Expecting high returns, comes with high risks. I expect land mines at this level of investing. If I did not see them, I would probably start to look over my shoulder saying, I must be in the wrong place. The bashers will try to say this is a pig with perfume, but such is not the case. This is a powerful, little company under the hood, granted with issues, that is holding a lot of aces. What we see now is a ugly body/chassis and not the gold under the hood. You cannot discount the valuable resources/attributes the company has, including no debt, near profitability, positive cash-flow, two rigs and 7000 acres of the Barnett Shale.
Here is my concern. Is this going to be the best story never told? This is a question for those people that know AMEP. If not for GEH and his excellent DD, this story would be unknown, at least to me.
I use to be in UPDA and I am not now. In my opinion, they are a fraction of the opportunity/company of AMEP, but I will say, they have lifted themselves off the floor, rising from $.05/6 range to $.14/.15 range, with excellent volume recently. They have done this through clear and consistent communications to the marketplace. Marketing, shareholder updates, communications, etc., whatever you want to call it.
Here is the positive out of this. They have traded around 30 million shares per day, over the last couple of days, which represents a market value of around $4+ million per day. I says this because it shows that there is strong interest in investing in this segment. Now ask yourself this, what if that $4 million dollar was invested in AMEP? If they can command such interest, what could AMEP be once the SEC review is behind them, they announce a few wells, essentially they have their coming out party for 2006/7? There is no comparison between AMEP and UPDA, even to the extent that AMEP is near profitability and positive cash-flow and UPDA barely has revenues, yet UPDA has twice the market value/cap. I hold management responsible for this. Is this temporary, considering the SEC issues, wells being stabilized, etc., or a style of the company?
Again my concern, will AMEP/CB ever market this company to effectively communicate the value that is inherent in the property/resources it owns? Will the PRs flow? Will they start to represent the oil and NG reserves that are inherent in the Barnett Shale properties? Is this going to be a techie thing, that ignores marketing and communications, or is AMEP going to be a full service enterprise that not only has superior engineering, assets and now financial resources, but a sales and marketing view that is commensurate with a company its size?
I do not want to be invested in the best story never told, so we need to change our style and approach. To those that know AMEP, can we and will we? This question has nothing to do with the company's size or resources, but rather with management's influence, control, and understanding of what has to get done, given the resources. This is to everyone's benefit, not the least which is CB, that the company's PPS reflects the brilliants that CB has created at that specific point in time.
Here is a question for you, do you think he will be chattering before yearend?
Can anyone tell me when the new Director Larry Horner came on board and if he is any relation to the CEO of a large Consulting/Accounting company? There was a story going around sometime ago and I wanted to see if there was any truth to it.
Since he came onboard, the financial reporting has improved, starting with the last 2 10Q's being submitted on time.
Additionally, he has been here since the inception of the SEC review, regarding the BDC restructuring, which is good.
I agree with you 100%. I spoke with Joe recently and he said as much. Until the SEC issue is resolved, I took it that they would not announce anything they would raise any interest.
When I spoke of the 5 wells, he said that there were two announced, Nash-Murphy #1 and Hart #8, and that is all he could talk about.
He said CB would only announce production rates on the wells when he felt comfortable and that he did every thing he could do.
I personally think this is BS, especially treating the shareholders this way. I made the comment, AMEP has not officially announced one production stable well in 2006 or in over a year. Is that a good record or are they holding back? I wonder if he realizes that 2007 is a month away?
I use to have a small position in UPDA, which is a fraction of the company of AMEP. They tanked, but recently with execution and excellent communications, they have built a nice rebound, heading from $.05 to $.14, with over 30m shares traded today. Nearly $4 million trade today to our $60k.
UPDA's market value is almost twice that of AMEP's. That is ridiculous and disgraceful. One-tenth the company, but twice the valuation. Something seems wrong here.
The PPS of this stock is a disgrace and the sole the responsibility of management, or should I say, lack there of.
How can UPDA have a higher market value than AMEP? Not because of revenue, near profitability, land value or assets, but because of execution, or should I say, lack there of.
I check RB occasionally throughout the day, but for once I did a little analysis on the percentage bashers, or people I have on ignore.
In last 50 messages, 43 are on ignore which represents a bashed ratio of around 85%. In fact, the last 23 messages are on ignore. For those new to this investment environment, this is a business to publicly attach companies like AMEP. For what other reason would you waste your time bashing amongst each other. The good people just put them in the toilet bowl and flush them down to where they belong.
That is not true, but I am not saying your wrong. I will give you an example. I visited AMEP around mid December 2005, the day after the guy from Hong Kong, so I can substantiate the flat tire story.
What did I see on sight, the 2nd rig from Mexico. Do you know that this was not announced until, I believe, March 2006. To me that was a significant event.
CB has a way of doing things, which I don't always agree with.
This company was constructed the CB way, which isn't all that bad given the Barnett Shale property, the rigs, and no debt. .
I am only hoping that once he gets his ducks lined up, as he puts it, he starts to market and communicate AMEP to the marketplace and shareholders as he should.
There is no question that this is going to be a big success, but it's the silence and bumpy ride that's a little hard to take. When you really focus down on what AMEP has, it's pretty awesome.
I should be a real disgruntled shareholder, which I have been having had to sell a few shares in this down draft, but I am very more convinced, that I am going to make a ton on AMEP, the only question is how much?
"It is being manipulated by bashers and MM, as AMEP has created the void with its silent and lack of PRs." That is the phrase that I used in my summary which outlined the reason for the stock price decline.
Your running at the mouth negative tone, ended with the question, why do I think it went from $.06 to $.03. For the same reason you said, if you took the time to read it through. Management has left a void with its silence and lack of PRs which has allowed that bashers and MM to have a field day. Let me day it again, Management - the company.
Who is kidding who? When you are down at this level investing, it is a snake pit, no guarantees. People are out to lie, cheat and steal at every turn, so you better be prepared to absorb the pain with the potential gain. Just look at RB. This is a risk reward venue, where you can lose your shirt in a heart beat.
I'll tell you a little story. I am really, really pissed off since I have sold millions of shares the last six months, for various reasons, at these depressed prices. This has made me analyze this investment with a critical eye, making me focus more as to why I am here and as to why I should stay, since I have millions left. In my opinion, I have sold at a loss for no necessary reason, since I think management has failed miserably in it execution and in communicating what AMEP has and is doing. There is not reason to be at these PPS levels CB, period.
I try to understand why? Do they have ADD/ADHD, can't focus, starts a lot of stuff and can't close? Are they holding back for a reason? Is there no sense of urgency? Have the priority changed? Do they not know how to manage a company? Only time will give us the true answer. One thing you cannot fault is how CB has put AMEP in the position it is in to prosper and grow. You know, the reasons I/we got in.
Announce the block buster wells, we supposedly have in the works, which could be any day, and I will be happy as a clam and all is forgotten. We are dealing with incredible financial leverage, at these prices, and if we are right, we have hit the grand slam.
One thing that I failed to articulate in my last post was, that I think the last year of delays has been plagued by equipment delays, breakdowns, and in the training of new crews. Are we ready to roll now? Let me say it again, are we ready to roll now? Are the rigs firing on all cylinders and the crews trained up to run?
If we are finally ready, lets roll and start closing these wells, one after another, since we have the equipment, land, financial assets and expertise in house to execute. The market for AMEP's oil and gas products are a given, with lots of upside. Not a bad market to be in.
When you invest at this level, the odds of making it big are what, 1 in 100, 1 in 1000? What I see with AMEP is the ingredient to be that 1. We have not crossed the finish line of success yet, but I hope any day, AMEP starts to announce results and never stops. Do we need improvement, sure, who doesn't?
My sense is that things are building up, much like a race car in spinning its tires. When this thing hit the ground, watch out. One thing for sure, CB needs to step up and market this company as a CEO should. No time to play the techie card, if you build it, they will come. No, if you are proud of what you have, shout it out from the roof tops. No hype, just fact. AMEP has a lot of fact that needs some shouting out.
Mike, you are right on. For some of the newer people, I will try to review some of the basic points of value in AMEP's asset base, from my perspective, which should support a much higher PPS:
* AMEP has 100% NWI on 7000 acres in the Barnett Shale area, which is the 2nd highest producing NG location in the US.
* A recent article represented that land in the Barnett Shale area was sold for as high as $13,000 per acre. With 7000 acres, that totals around $91 million in value alone, or a PPS of $.185 for this property alone.
* AMEP has already received 3D seismic reporting on at least 2500 acres, maybe more, of this Barnett Shale property. This information, coupled with a few producing wells on this property, gives AMEP expanded visibility to the property value. The recently announced Murphy-Nash #1 well was drilled just 1400 feet from a major producing well that has generated almost $1.4 million in revenue since mid 2004. This older well is now being re-fraced to significantly increase production. The Murphy - Nash #1, announced September 12th, has 5 defined pay zones, is waiting for production results, upon stabilization.
* AMEP has 193 wells under its PRI BDC. This will be a smaller revenue generator, with estimated proven oil reserve of around $68 million.
* AMEP owns 2 full rigs. A recent article stated that a new rig could cost as much as $15 million and take 12-18 months to deliver. Rigs rent out for around $20,000 -- $22,000 per day. AMEP could use these rigs to build out the 7000 acres, rent them out to a third party, or leveraged them to acquire interest in other properties for a fee and/or percentage return.
* AMEP posted its 10Q on time this week. The company is preparing for the accounting changes in moving from a BDC corporation to an operational reporting company, which is subject to shareholders approval. Some of the key financials reported in the 10Q were, that the company's net assets increased by $2M and that no new shares were issued for capitalization. AMEP has no debt.
* AMEP has 4-5 new or re-fraced wells, either completed, or near completion. Just adding a couple of wells to the company's current financials, could make AMEP profitable and in a positive cash flow position.
Given that this is the case, AMEP could build out it owned properties, with its own rigs, exponentially increasing revenues and profits, without further dilution.
When you add the value of the 2 rigs owned, the value of the PRI BDC, and the value of the 7000 acres owned in the Barnett Shale, your PPS should be significantly higher than the current price. Bottom line, this in not a $.034 stock. It is being manipulated by bashers and MM, as AMEP has created the void with its silent and lack of PRs. In this lies the opportunity.
AMEP with its valuable properties, rigs and no debt, could be an attractive take over target.
I am giving my view of the opportunity, but you must do your own DD.
Welcome. RB is a mess unless you use iggy. The more pieces of this puzzle I see, the better I like this opportunity.
Some of the points:
* Property in the Barnett Shale going for as much as $13,000 per acre. Tally that up with 7000 acres. Barnett Shale featured on ABC and NBC this week.
The only people buying this stock are the few smart and loyal longs here, based on the volume and the stock price. Notice I said smart. I am taped out, but in my opinion, this is for real.
I saw this on RB and I quickly computed a hypothetical value for AMEP's 7000 acres at let say $13,000 per acre, or $91 million. Based on the shares outstanding, this computes to a PPS of close to $.185.
This does not even consider the value of the PRI operations or the company owned Rigs.
Management refuses to articulate the incredible value of the resources in house, which is disgraceful, as we sit at $.034 per share.
Matter of fact I was. I have been investing in alternate energy in companies like Rentech (Coal - oil) and Canwest (Oil sands) for over 5 years, so I see the trend. Have made big money.
This oil and gas issue is for real. The next big card to drop could be the Iran - Israel confrontation, with Iran nearing completion of its nuclear capability, as reported just last night. Now that will disrupt the oil equation. Not to mention Irag is a mess and now the Democracts take charge.
AMEP is sitting on a gold mine, but this year, they has failed to execute to this point.
You have got to be kidding me. I have been in this stock over 12 months and we have not brought one well into production with announced results. I give them an D- for operations. You call that good.
How about no reflection of the value in the PPS of the 7000 acres of the rich Barnett Shale property. Did we lose the other rig? I give them an F- for marketing and communciations.
I am still struggling with the lack of production updates. We started drilling Dec 05, and to date, we have no new announced production numbers on any new or reworked wells. With 4-5 wells in various stages and with only one announced Sept 12th, what is up? Where is the 2nd rig?
The 10Q was early and there is discussion of the BDC being dissolved soon, both good things.
Management needs to start to put some air under this thing and show some life and performance. The demand side of this business has dried up as evident by the stock price and number of shares traded.
Last evening ABC Evening News featured Forth Worth and the Barnett Shale boom. ....And we sit in the middle of it, under water, lost and adrift.
Come on CB it is time to show what you've got.
Someone tell CB to get out of the engine room and get up on the bridge to properly steer this vessel, as its commanding officer, because it is going the wrong way.
This is disgraceful, now matter what he is doing. Gas prices igniting and we are going south. Two new wells generating revenue, one announced awaiting production numbers, the other not even announced. If only half of what sleddog said is true, which I believe all of it is, why is nothing on the table.
CB put the screw drive down and quite tuning the well to the 10th decimal place. He is over the side painting the ship while the ship is sinking.
This is a gold mine and he refuse to communicate the basics. People can get upset with my comments, but I am a strong believer in this company,having been in over a year. This is a HR. What bothers me is we started drilling in December 05, that mind you was after delays with the rig. I expect that, part of the risk at these levels. But now, with all that he has accomplished, what gives?
Out of frustration, I called the company Friday, and today, I got a call back.
First of all, the SEC muzzle story, which I believed, is not true as Hawk stated. Yes, they are working with the SEC to investigate the issues, but from my interpretation, it is a loosely couple thing, with not communications restrictions.
Secondly, I asked this question the other day and I did not get an answer, when the Murphy - Nash #1 went into production the next week, per the September 12th PR, does it become revenue? Yes, it does. No, we do not have production numbers, but it is in production and being revenued from the point it went into production. The fact is we are waiting for CB to tune the well to a performance level he is comfortable with.
Having said this, I am upset with the stock price. This is ridiculous and not a reflection of the company or its assets. We are polishing a hole in the ground trying to be perfectionist. I know some CEO's who would announce something at the first smell of oil or gas. We have one that is tuning the well to the X decimal point.
CB has got to start to realize there is more to running the company then field operations. I am not asking for hype, but rather a reflection of the true value of the investment. When you leave it to the market, this is what happens.