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All the cheap shares that need to be unloaded is preventing the s/p from rising.
If you read this Yahoo article you will never be able to get those 2 minutes of your life back.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-bought-neurotrope-nasdaq-ntrp-121153902.html
Doc, I agree that a small therapeutic window increases the likelihood of failure, but I don't think a 100% increase in dose fits into that category. Even if you shave off a margin of error from the 15 of 16 patients that improved to account for the one size fits all, we still will be better than a 50% chance of success. Thanks for responding Doc, I really appreciate your input.
Yeah runncoach, I get what you’re saying, but a huge amount of that misunderstanding was attributed to foraging down the wrong alley for too long. It's like a girl who has been dating that same type of bad guy time after time, and when a good guy comes along she is fearful of making another bad choice.
I realize I used mechanism of action in the wrong context in my previous post:)
Doc, you are saying that NTRP has less chances of success than a coin toss. Please disconnect your comment from AVXL so that I understand your reasoning. The failure of previous AD trials were basically because they had the wrong approach. I believe that NTRP's MOA of regenerating synapses is the most common sense and best approach out there. Do you disagree? Or is it that you are not quite convinced that Byrostatin can regenerate these synapses, lending to your believe in a below 50% chance of success? I know it's not a slam dunk but I would say we have an 80% chance of good results.
“Might just sell half and see what happens.” Now that’s smart Investor2014.
I'm looking for good bear cases against NTRP. Do you have any reasons you believe this trial may fail?
“I hardly ever short, but might make an exception with $NTRP.” Please do.
Yeah, ok, right, of course.
Did you short AVXL down from 14?
Stat comparison of patients that cognitively declined over 13-15 weeks.
Placebo————————— —— 56%
Bryo 20ug + Memantine ———— 41%
Bryo 20ug + non-Memantine —— 6%
I like our chances.
Upon release of good data results, I can see some forward thinking BP offering Neurotrope an eye popping multi-billion dollar buyout offer based on contingencies. Contingencies such as upon approval of synthetic bryostatin. That way they cover themselves allowing them the comfort to make a huge offer.
Thanks runncoach, I read that post, but didn’t quite integrate the information.
I have a couple of questions I have not been able to figure out, maybe someone can help me.
1) If the mITT group's n value is the same as the Completers group's n value aren’t we talking about the same patients thus the data should be the same?
2) I thought 16 patients completed the 20ug non memantine group not 14.
I'll play along.
What makes you thank the stock will take a huge dump after data release?
I've had experience being poor in my life, I’ve had none being rich. I would like that new experience.That being said, I will not miss this opportunity that is in front of me. That is why, if NTRP gets in the billions, I will be in the millions:)
Are you saying 79 days until the company receives the trial results?
What just happened with today’s volume?
Biostudent, would you really want the company to make an early business deal in which they will have to settle for lowball terms? Or wait until after the confirmatory results to make a deal in which they will have the control (if good results)? It all depends on how much confidence you have in the drug. Dr. Alkon has a lot of confidence in this drug.
RayovacAAA, I have a good idea. You should short NTRP!
Do you give any credibility to Lane Simonian's (Seeking Alpha) belief that the I.V. contained an antioxidant that improved the effectiveness of Bryostatin and also benefitted the patients on placebo?
Doc, in the up coming trial results, what would you consider good and excellent results. I'm not sure if I can extract that information from your previous posts. I get the feeling that some may be setting the bar too high. Thanks.
With all due respect Doc, I disagree with a couple of your points. If this trial is an undisputed success, how could Fast Track not be a 100% guarantee? I also think you are underestimating the chances of Accelerated Approval (with obligation to continue study). I can understand why you would think AA wouldn’t happen for AVXL, because they are going after mild AD population. Although relatively short, the safety data is good. What would these patients have to lose? But, you did say you were being conservative.
Runncoach. do you remember how many patients showed improvement at week 5?
I now have a new most favorite takeaway from the previous trial. It's the substained improvement throughout the trial for patients on the 20mcg and not on memantine. There was no up-down-up-down as seen elsewhere. That’s very encouraging pointing to the drug works. That wasn’t luck.
I can’t imagine that BP would not try to quickly buyout NTRP if we get good results in a few months. It wouldn’t just be good results, but good results using a different approach, not to mention on the most difficult moderate to severe AD patients. FOMO will cause BP to act fast so that their competitors won’t get the drug. I don’t think NTRP will get a chance to run a Ph3.
I thought I heard somewhere where Dr. Alkon say it may help improve cognition in healthy people. If so, I can see a black market for Bryostatin.
When you hear the C.U. patient's wife say, “I had Lazarus for a year. We could do things again.” Then you think about there are cancer drugs that can extend life for only a few weeks that are worth billions of dollars. If this trial is successful there will be a big market cap correction.
Not complicated does not equate to “...so easy..”
I played the video before I read the article. While listening to his wife I began to tear up.
Can anyone tell me why there is so much discussion about AVXL on this message board?
When trial results are released, the results will be viewed through forgiving eyes from the people that matter. The normal desire to attack the results will be minimal. I say this for two main reasons. 1) The realization that BP maynot be coming to the rescue for this horrible disease. 2) NTRP may be the only company that is going after a treatment for the tough severe AD patients.
So this is why I think that the results don’t have to hit the ball out of park (although I think it will) to be successful, even a double will feel like a home run. I may have said all of this before, but felt like saying it again.
Not long ago we were wishing to break $5. Just keeping things in perspective.
Just looking at the previous trial's 15 week graft again. It makes me smile when I look at week 13-15 and see how the patients on Bryostatin and not on memantine SIB scores dramatically angled up, as if it got a shot of Viagra. Enough to make anyone excited.
I knew that is what you meant. Just wanted to clarify for those that may be new to the board. Five months can’t come fast enough.
Antti, just for clarification. When you say “... I would actually say that $20 isn't far away either. ”. You are referring to before result release, right?
The share price is low right now, and although I'm sure it will be higher as we approach result release, it may not reach the price it deserves. I believe this is because investors think that if BP couldn’t solve this AD problem there’s not much chance that these smaller companies will. This sentiment will change went the first of these smaller companies present indisputable positive trial results for a drug that can make a real difference. That company will enjoy the benefit of the “pile in” effect. Everyone all of a sudden trying to get in. Because at that point it will be the only true option on the planet. IMHO we are underestimating what will happen to the share price if NTRP presents very good results in a few months.
I know that Bryostatin is difficult to harvest and takes many steps to process, question is - without a synthetic version, would it still be an economically marketable therapy.
Here's an interesting article from a post off of Yahoo m.b., posted by Starlight.
https://insiderfinancial.com/whats-next-for-neurotrope-inc-nasdaq-ntrp
Antti, if the confirmatory results are a slam dunk, do you think they will sell the company (relatively quickly). What do you think they would accept? What is the minimum you would accept? I think they should sell the company to BP who can develop the pipeline quicker thus getting help quicker to the needed populations.