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Trade example..last one...
Ok, looking for support/resistance isn't always exact and I recommend using stops. I looks for support and resistance by seeing congestion/basing patterns. Our screening for short term trades does this mechanically. Interestingly, moving averages are of little value when looking for support/resistance buy points.
Trade examples cont......
ESPD shows two things, first a breakout coming back down to support, and then picking it up as a short term trade moving from support to resistance.
Example trades cont....
STN I got a little impatient with and sold prematurely:
Short term trade examples:
I thought I'd follow-up on these trades to better illustrate how I look at support and resistance, and how I approach short term trades. So looking at CYMI:
Breakouts did ok today. The biggest disappointment was IGEN, and CYMI started out hot then faded. PD was an easy buy and when PD went another on the list (posted on the site http://www.savvy-trader.com) was a logical move, N. CVC was my favorite.
Have a good weekend everyone.
Sam
Breakout alerts we had this morning: CYMI, SYMC, BWA, SGR, IGEN and PD. Looks like more will go today, but this is a good start.
Sam
The strength in the market today took all the short term trades up to much to keep on the table. And, there were no replacements that met the strict risk/reward criteria. There is a large group of potential breakouts to watch tomorrow (posted at http://www.savvy-trader.com), but these are mostly day trades.
Sam
There were still long plays despite the down market. The site is updated for tomorrow, could be an interesting day.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Today was kind of a dull day, breakouts were much subdued compared to yesterday, NET alerted and we picked up some, EK alerted but really didn't move much, while HYSL ran off. The short term list had one climb to high keep on the list and another stop. Tomorrows group of breakouts and the two additions to the short term list look good.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
The Savvy Trader site is updated for trading tomorrow. Hope everyone has been making the most of this market.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
It is a good day to check the site as there is lots of important SSRatio information. http://www.savvy-trader.com
Sam
More information about changes in the Screened Stock Ratio is posted on the site, along with the picks for Monday.
But as a tease......and because I feel bad for not finishing over the weekend....Here are the SSRatio signal days, plus one, (the day you could actually act on the signal).
Neg 1/10/2002
Pos 2/28/2002
Neg 3/28/2002
Pos 8/2/2002
Neg 9/17/2002
Pos 10/17/2002
Neg 12/11/2002
Pos 1/3/2003
Now, just for fun, pick any stock you might have traded last year and do it according to those dates at the opening price. Try stocks that went up and others that went down during the year. It is amazing just how much market influence is on the individual stock.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
The Screened Stock Ratio started the new year by giving us a positive market signal. The ratio rose to +0.58 favoring buying. More importantly, the 7-day crossed the 15-day which means momentum has changed.
There was much market commentary that said the market volume wasn't good enough to give a bullish signal. But, in the SSRatio, the volume in the up moving stocks was enough to overpower the volume in the down trending stocks, which could be more important than the total market volume, we'll see in coming days. The chart below shows yesterday's NYSE Composite and the effect on the two SSRatios. (see http://www.savvy-trader.com)
Sam
We're updated for trading tomorrow.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
We are heading out for a little holiday vacation tomorrow, so I want to wish you all a wonderful 2003. I've updated the site for the last time this year!!!!!
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
I've updated the site for Monday, short term traders will like be marking time.
As I mentioned, I recently changed the Screen Stock Ratio from a 7-day weighted moving average to a 7-day exponential moving average due to having 4 days of the ratio fall negative then bounce after giving a solid buy signal October 18. Not that I don't expect an occasional whipsaw, but 4 consecutive was to much for my liking. And, in my review of the SSRatio over the last year I was more impressed at the value of the ratio as an oscillator as opposed to a flat indicator based on the balance of buying/selling. This is something we used mostly at the extremes, but up to now, we have not given enough credit for its trading value. So for 2003, I'll be changing how we view the ratio day by day. I'll be posting the analysis on the site soon.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Again, the low volume has affected the screening. Having said that, there are enough on the list to pick from and I entered a position in CLE today.
Speaking of positions, I'm still holding CYMI and STN too. Sold ESPD today and will be looking to enter tomorrow, under 17 again if possible. All these are or were stocks we screened.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Not much additional in the short term trades for tomorrow. And there might not be Friday if we don't see some volume coming in.
The market risk should be limited to the volatility. I've been working on making greater use of the SSRatio as an oscillator. I'll post a link to the work this weekend.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
I expect low volume tomorrow, and for the rest of the week. But often there is plenty of opportunities during this holiday weeks. I've added a couple more short term stocks on the list and there are plenty of potential breakouts.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Overall it seems the short term trades did the best, did sell my FCX breakout position for 62 cents. Everyone have a nice weekend, I think we're off to see the new Lord of the Rings.
Sam
AMHC and JBL - why you don't hold through earnings.
Market risk has once again risen to high, maybe it will last only one day as has been the case the last 3 times we've seen the balance favor selling, but then....
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
I received a couple e-mails that indicate I need to make some comments regarding the holding of positions.
Short term or swing trading is holding overnight, or more appropriately over several nights. That is why we post both a stop and target price. You should be able to buy it and forget it, except for one thing, that being earnings. You don't want to hold over during earnings, so you might have to sell before the target is met.
To make the most off earnings plays, prior to the release you have to be willing to hold overnight. But again, I strongly recommend not holding over during the earnings release, that will get you burned, if the earnings are that good, you can always buy the stock back. And, there are always plenty of other safer positions. For example, APOL was a play prior to earnings based on the strength it had at 40 support, then as a breakout the day after earnings.
Don't let someone first tell you how much they make buying earnings plays as much as two weeks prior, then tell you they don't hold overnight. The best gains are made by being willing to hold overnight, especially when the market risk favors the longs. And, holding earnings plays overnight during the earnings release makes the worse losses.
Breakouts are not necessarily more than a day trade, but I often hold them for a night or more. Keeping in mind that 80% of the time a breakout retests the support, and often you can buy the stock back at, or lower, than your first position.
While breakouts are hard to determine the best sell, they are easier to buy since they self select by not even considering them until they break their previous days high by 20 cents or so. While the short-term stocks have a broad buy range, we calculate it based on an average of the stocks daily range. Waiting and buying lower can increase your percentage gain to the target, but you risk not getting into the position at all.
Sam
Our estimate of market risk has hung on to positive for tomorrow, so the market favors long positions.
Sam
Going out on a limb, but right now today's decline looks more like a buying opportunity, we'll see as the SSRatio is easily with striking distance of going negative again.
Sam
The short term list held up well during the recent weakness, and now maybe we are clear to see some good gains. Market risk dropped significantly today....so we'll see.
Sam
After taking a sick day on Friday, I'm up, but not yet well. I've updated the site however.
Sam
Since our SSRatio changed direction, and balance to positive, the estimate of market risk decreased significantly for tomorrow. However, I'll remain a little cautious since the balance didn't negate Monday.
Sam
Market risk rose to high by our index, so I've added a few potential shorts to the watchlist for tomorrow.
Sam
Market risk looks lower for Monday. The short term stocks held pretty well last week despite the drop in the indices. Don't forget we have a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday....though I don't expect a change in the current policy.
Sam
The oils on the breakout list were the stars today. It seemed they have been building up to this.
Sam
The market risk still favors the longs, and there are more potential breakouts to watch tomorrow. Remember to set an alert at approximately 20 cents above the previous days high to alert a breakout, then take a look at it for a potential trade.
Sam
Our estimate of market risk improved for tomorrow, despite the drop in the indices today...we'll see.
Sam
Not much to offer for tomorrow. Just two short term trades left on the table and only one potential breakout screened out. XTO was the only breakout that did much today.
Sam
More potential breakouts posted for tomorrow, though market risk rose a little.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Not much to offer for tomorrow, ECL was the only potential breakout to watch.
Sam
Guess you noticed that the flight attendants okayed a wage cut. That should help UAL Monday.
Friday was a big disappointment to me. I bought some ESPD at 15.03 after seeing the support at 15, it never broke out Friday so I'm just speculating that it will early this week....we'll see. Hope you are having a nice weekend, the weather in Wyoming today is beautiful....so we have to be out and get it while it lasts.
Sam
So far trading is a lot less volatile than I thought it would be. Feel like taking a nap <g>
Sam
Tomorrow is an island Friday, they usually have quiet volume but with a lot of volatility. Should be fun....
Sam
Thanks bbgold, we had a rather quiet day today, I've down with some creeping crud and have been trying to shake it for a couple days now. I did eat enough for both of us though...
Hope you had a good day today, tomorrow should be a good trading day.
Sam