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Defining a penny stock by saying anything less than $5 per share is an extremely naive definition of a penny stock. Awful at best.
This post is not towards you JJ, but towards the link to that definition.
A penny stock should be based on 2 things and 2 things only: Market Cap and Exchange Traded on. Of course, reporting standards is included in 'exchange traded on'.
You did not type that in your message content?
IMO, the company should be more worried about selling their filters and making bank.
Read the PR's. Look at a chart. You tell me.
It's not hard to figure out.
These guys don't get margin called.
Exactly my thoughts as well. Very disappointed in todays price action. Very.
Also with you on knowing its just timing. This WILL hit 10 - its just a matter of when.
I strongly thought it would hit $10 with the amount of shorts. Even with the bear raid Friday, i still thought it would hit 8-10.
Its still early today, but it appears i was completely wrong.
The only thing i don't understand is why it takes so long for people to recognize that a security is a scam.
I mean, honestly, i was in this at the very start, and i only took me about 3 weeks (ok, ok - so some probably recognized it quicker than i did).
But to be in this longer then a few months - im not so sure a person should continue investing to be honest. Might as well go to the casino. Im not kidding.
You just have to read the PR's carefully, looking for keywords. And watch the volume/price action.
And another is when a regular message board guy starts relaying information instead of press releases. Red flag.
Anyway, just chalk it up to a learning experience. And take it wasy on King. He must have lost so much money its incredible. Hopefully no one listened to him.
IMO, the shorts that were outstanding covered a little Friday during bear raid, and covered a little today. HOwever, i believe the problem we may be having right now are more shorts jumping in after seeing a 100% plus price spike overnight.
So not only the old shorts, but many new shorts will have to cover.
It will spike, but it may or may not be today.
Only thing i am next to shocked in regards to, is why we are trading this low right now.
There is no doubt in my mind that this will inch to 10+, but it very well may take a little longer than the one day i honestly expected. Premarket is HUGE volume, but i its not trading between 6-7 which i figured it would. More shorting by folks that see the 100% plus jump in one day keeping it down?
The company did not even state forecasts yet.
I have not been following bios more than 6 months, and i can already see how transparent this guy is already. He makes it so obvious. AF needs to go. What a sham.
His big mistake is he is using industry average - big pharmas with huge overhead are weighing that down. Once ramped up, the margins at such a small pharma will be extremely high. That is way too low an estimate.
If i were AVNR i would not partner and would go at it solo. Reason being, in the long run, going at it solo is MUCH, MUCH more lucrative. The reason other pharmas do not do it is because it is extremely costly and they do not have the cash on hand, nor the ability to raise the capital needed quickly. AVNR can.
However, i do agree with your assessment on PPS looking forward. This will get EU approved. And yes, peak annual sales will hit anywhere from 600 mil to a billion annually. If they go at it solo, margins will be conservatively 50%. You are looking at approximately 800 million annually in peak sales, and 400 million annually net income.
They will command a moderate PE ratio of 20 because they will still be looking to grow their pipeline in getting this same drug approved for other even more lucrative ailments.
Folks, with approximately 100 million shares outstanding, approximate annual peak income for this ONE approval of 400 million, and a PE multiple of 20, that comes to $80.00 a share. And no, this is not a pump. However, this is at PEAK numbers. Peak will not be reached for years (4-6 years maybe?). However, investors invest for FUTURE earnings, so even discounting this by 50% within the next year or so, you arrive at $40 per share shorter term.
And this is without the potential of it being approved for other ailments.
Just throwing some numbers at you all, but the gist is that $5.00 is small potatoes. Very small. This WILL be worth quite a bit more, even short term.
I thought these bear raids were protected against now? Wasn't there something implemented by the SEC to protect against, or stop these?
This is crazy!
HOD @ 3.05!!!!!
I think the L2 ask is 'fake'. I have been watching the market depth combined with time/sales feed, and for example, the market depth will show say 100k at the ask (lets use at ask of 3.00 for example) and then 10k - 15k of actual trades will go through, and 3.00 will get broken through and that huge block all the sudden will appear at 3.01 instead.
There is very, very little doubt that this is being toyed with and resistance levels and support levels are fake as hell.
Oh wow, anyone have time/sales up and see the size of some of those blocks get bought at 3.00? Jesus, that is some serious money. Wow.
Its probably 'cahced' on her computer. It is definitely not working.
I still want to know who that is in your profile
I am beginning to wonder, if we get enough steam by maybe 1pm or so and make it to 3.20 or more, if a ton of covering begins end of day today, and we possibly close at $4+ today.
That is why i think intra day on approval, this spikes above 10.00 - there will be just way too much buying - both from actual buyers, and over 10 million covers.
We could truly get a fabulous spike in a 5-15 minute period. Of course it will settle, but the spike should be glorious.
Im shocked it made it through 3.00 that easily. Figured 3.00 would be tough resistance.
See, i myself am going to be VERY nervous if we do not hear anything today or Saturday. IMO, and again, this is just me, but the longer this is delayed, the less confident i am. You always want to get good news out quickly, and delay the bad news.
Now, it does not necesarily mean the FDA is not going to approve - heck, AVNR may not even get approval/denial until next week or in 2 weeks - but it just does not give me the confidence the longer it goes without a decision.
3.00 has been hit folks :)
Really strange isnt it. POZN gets approved, and goes down. VVUS received CRL and goes up?!?!?!?!?
I guess it is approvable going forward, and the FDA gave specific guidelines to get approved. At least, that is 'what i read'.
Nice early run for us this morning, just hit 2.95
That is an absolute joke! They might as well say 10 billion, just as believable!
2.88 getting hit good. 2.90 should be up soon :)
Don't apologize - trading this intra-day or even daily is not at all a bad investment strategy. But i feel most are under the investment decision of taking this through approval, and not taking that chance of trading this and being left with little to no shares and having an approval decision pop at any time and missing out on 100, 200 or even a 400% gain.
THAT would suck.
Think most here are in this for the event Cryptic, not to trade it intra day or daily.
Yep, this is really running right now.
Nice chunks being taken out of 2.70, its ready to fall
Watching time/sales, there have been some very big buys coming in.
Couple things folks....
First, those afraid of the price drop, please look at POZN right before it was approved. Price was cut in half literally within a few minutes, and then next day, APPROVED.
Secondly, DONT WORRY ABOUT PRICE RIGHT NOW OR 2MOROW! I know that sounds ridiculous, but if this is approved, regardless of price right now or 2morow, this is going to $6 to $15 range regardless (and yes, i DO think this spikes above $10 - wont stay there, but i think we get that big of a spike) if approved, and .75 to 1.50 if not.
Price before approval is insignifcant unless your not already in and looking to buy (or want to get out).
Good stuff loans, thanks!
Personally, i think this is a greater than 50% chance of getting approved. And the short interest is another HUGE factor both ways.
If this gets approved, it will shoot up nicely for obvious reasons. But even if denial comes, there are still 12 million plus shares that need to buy back (cover) so the price IMO will not drop 'as much' as people think with a denial.
I just think the risk/reward in this is too great to ignore.
I did read one article that stated if CRL came, this would drop 80%. Whoever wrote that is a complete novice. With 12 mil+ shorts, there is NO WAY this drops 80%. No way, no how. Right as soon as i read that line, i closed the article as the author lost all credibility.
With that said, if this does receive a denial, i am done with bios. My investing strength is finding fundemental investments, and i have had one i wanted to be in heavy, and instead 'tried' ALXA and AVNR for potential big gains based on others recommendations.
So, i am passing up another stock right now that i know will double in 6 months.
Exaclty. BIG SCAM is what this is. How can a company tell you that your getting a .10 divvy, but you have to hold until a certain date, and they UNLOAD SHARES on you, then at the date tell you that your not getting the divvy, while you just lost 75% of your investment waiting for it/expecting it?!?!?!?!
Don't even feel bad for anyone either, because how many people have been here warning you for weeks and weeks?
totally depends on vvus today IMO.
But right now, the sentiment on AVNR starting this week has been at an all-time low. This has gone from next to a shoe-in approval, to 45% approval chance in a very short time.
Scare tactics?
Yep. Very strange trading. Those 2 articles out have me at least thinking.
How often does approval before PDFU date get announced? How exciting would that be? IMO, approval before next monday would net us the biggest percent gain because all of the short would not have time to cover slowly the next few days. It would be all at once out of the blue.
I think if it were announced today/2morow, we could very well see a spike to above $10 a share.
That is how i feel about BiomedReports and that Garza guy also. No longer trust them AT ALL.