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I sold my 11.83s too early - but i made $.
I think this is a technical rally; the result of a long consolidation and the promise of cold weather to come. As Dude illigence always says "it's gonna be a long cold winter". I don't think the report was bullish at all. I think ng is still in consolidation. So much so that i am averaged in D at 22.39.
Next week's report will likely push storage over 3400bcf with 7 weeks left to go. If injections are normal the season should end with over 3800 bcf. Not bullish.
In short, I think it goes down again before blastoff, but i could be wrong....
Wash to downside has begun
Sold 12.23s on premarket jump. Will load again on the next dip.
First buy 12.23. Ready to buy more at ng 2.92 and again below 2.87
Way to go NG bulls! I missed rally as I was waiting for a lower entry point. GLTA.
And in 7 business days ugaz starts rolling over to Nov contract. That's an 8 cent contango.
Oops. I picked up 11.54s on Friday not Thursday.
Thankyou ugaz. I sold my 11.54s from Thursday when it popped this morning. I am waiting to load much lower. Although i consider it risky i made additional $ buying dgaz on the way back down.
Hope for additional power burn diminishes each day as eastern US looks forward to below normal temps for at least the next 2 weeks. I would not be surprised to see October contract dip below $2.80.
In order for this not to happen production needs to decrease, LNG needs to maintain levels, exports to Mexico need to remain robust, and imports from Canada need to remain the same or decrease.
I hope they are right
Storage report was barely bullish. Sold U at 12.54 after it failed to hold 12.60. I look for more trading in the range from 2.80 to 3.10. Be careful bulls. Next week's storage report looks to be lousy.
GLTA
We are in the midst of the great consolidation of 2017. It has been at least 8 weeks in the 2.80-3.10 range. We all know that 2017 injection season will end well below last year. We all know NG is primed to jump, but there are a couple of items that will likely keep it in this range a bit longer:
1. Weather. The eastern pacific oscillation is pushing warm air north into the western US and cool air south into the eastern, more heavily populated US. This pattern will likely persist into September. As a side note the tropical storm due to hit Texas will drive down EP demand even more.
2. NG is on the verge of entering shoulder season. Summer's coming to an end. Simply knowing that is enough for traders to lay off the bull train. I've seen several rallies during shoulder season, but don't count on it this time.
I am buying low and selling the pops. I sold almost all my UGAZ yesterday premarket when it topped 12.80. I look for the storage report to be bullish and may sell the remainder if it hits 12.75-13.00 post report.
I start will buying again at 11.70 and lower.
Patience
Sold 10.42s PM at 11.04. I am still bullish NG but it might go down before it goes up. I never regret taking gains even if they're modest. glta
I'm surprised MM didn't push NG markedly lower yesterday. It gave me enough optimism to load at close 10.42
I have lots of $ ready if NG breaks lower.
Yeah. I'm thinking you might be right.
U starts rolling into October contract on Tuesday so I'll use that contract as a benchmark. Prob think hard about a buy at 2.76 which means sept contract at approx 2.72.
The real action looks to be the jan and feb 18 contracts. Longs are very interested in those.
Sold more than half my 10.41s PM at 11.04 I hope report is bullish, but i have my doubts. Lots of traders are looking to push NG lower - perhaps to 2.65 I've never regretted taking profits. If it breaks lower I'm ready to load again.
Loaded 10.41 I have plenty more powder if it breaks lower. The eastern pacific oscillation looks like it will keep driving cold air into the central US. NG could go lower.
I want to swing this, but since i may have to hold it until sept contract starts to roll, I'm waiting to buy until October contract dips below 2.82. Patience.
Glut. Hmm... I could be wrong, but I'm thinking lots of oil is going to Asia and to floating storage. Data not very transparent for either.
10m drop.
1) Most was exported.
http://blogs.platts.com/2017/07/17/us-crude-exports/
2)Saudi shipping curtailment is starting to show up at GM terminals
3)Recent adds from SPR masked the size of some of the more recent draws
That oil that is being shipped from all the exporting companies has to go somewhere, but where? The glut can't clear that fast. I smell a shorting opportunity
And i got stopped out.
June 28 EIA reported
crude +0.1
gasoline -0.9
distillates -0.2
I think the bullish response is a bit overdone. Hence I picked up DWT at 37.3 It is the height of driving season. Better draws than this are needed or else WTI is in for more pain
Sold my 24.47 for 30.47 today PM. TAKE PROFITS!!
Sold dwt - avg cost 24.47- for 30.47 pm today. Oil may go lower, but it also may be catching its breath. Im still a bit bearish but I took the profit instead. I am willing to go bullish if TA shows me different.
In 24.47 Holding thru today's EIA report. I will sell when wti below $48 or if I start seeing sqeezies on the upside.
Averaged in 24.47. Now in the black.
Black swan. That's one way to smash thru resistance.
Loaded more D at wti 51.7x
Fun article about Mexico's oil mega-hedge.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-04/uncovering-the-secret-history-of-wall-street-s-largest-oil-trade
Nice article about the mother of all oil hedges.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-04/uncovering-the-secret-history-of-wall-street-s-largest-oil-trade
Rally may not hit my initial loading price of WTI 51.60. I put a toe in the water, making my first buy at 50.50.
Rally should hit resistance $51.6. I am looking to start loading near that level
Relief rally underway.
I think one of the more probable scenarios is for Saudis to sweet talk WTI into a short lived relief rally. Ultimately it goes lower. Stay hedged my friends.
The silver tongued basterds at OPEC may help bounce WTI off the 200 day. Could be looking at a bit of a short squeeze.
Nice action today. I put a little cash in the bank. Hopefully volatility is back in the oil sector. Volatility = $$
Oil +11.6 Gasoline and distillates moderate draws. WTI red candle. Thank you Permian basin!
There is so much money in oil right now. Funds are packed with long positions. Its more manipulated than usual now. Even though inventories are at all time highs there isn't a peep about massive oversupply. OPEC's saying once summer driving season comes there will be rebalancing. Everybody (especially big money investing houses) is drinking the Koolade and will do what's necessary to drive Brent to 60+.
I tend to do better as a bear, but recently I've been going long whenever WTI gets close to 53.5. I'm selling the spikes. There is a lot of bull pressure. I think it breaks up thru resistance instead of down thru support.