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Have a look at West Texas crude. If it ends the day with a doji then DWTI could be a good buy at end of day. WTIC is overbought now again and should have a pullback. If there is a doji on the chart today then that could signal the pullback is coming. As far as DUST/JDST GDX and GDXJ with another gap up. Actually GDXJ is even more robust then GDX so I actually think JDST is the better buy because GDXJ has more of a correction or at least pullback due. I took some JDST this morning and have little doubt it will be a decent trade.
IMO $1307 is what to watch for gold. Everyone already assumes gold is in a new bull cycle and I would probably agree. However, until it goes and actually makes a NEW higher high on the long trend then I am not completely convinced yet. January 2015's $1307 needs to be broken. Once that happens then the doubt should be removed.
In the meantime GDX and GDXJ are extremely overbought yet again. Gold is also overbought but not nearly as much as GDX and GDXJ.
I had a very good two days with UVXY DRIP TZA and have nice profits. I went ahead and bought a nice chunk of JDST at 1.83 this morning. We'll see what happens.
My guess is that this bear cycle will be like the 2000 bear cycle and not like the 2008 one. Basically the market will stumble along without what one would call a "crash" but will set in lower highs and lower lows consistently over a couple of years. When all said and done it will probably take out 30% or so on the S&P.
I don't think there will be a crash falls off a cliff type thing like in 2008. I'm looking at more so a similar repeat to 2000 then I am 2008.
Also what is similar to 2000 was that the bubble then was a tech bubble which was an equities bubble. 2008 was a housing bubble. Right now again we have an equities bubble. I would think that this equities bubble has similar results to the 2000 bear cycle as that was also an equities bubble. Although back then central banks had much more normal policies then they do today. Having said that though mining stocks are still equities also and so knowing there is an equities bubble makes it difficult for me to want to own equities of any kind.
During the great depression yes they did. During the great recession they did bad though. Look at mining stocks between March 2008 and October 2008. They crashed. They recovered once the bailout went through. Before that the last bear cycle was the 2000 tech bubble and again mining companies didn't do very well.
Basically the question ends up being will there be deflation or not. Mining companies are highly leveraged and so they depend on banks. During deflation banks have troubles and anything that banks service like mining companies also struggle, just the way it is.
I believe we are already in a bear cycle. If deflation doesn't hit and/or the financial system does not get threatened then mining stocks will do good. If there is deflation and/or financial system troubles then miners will perform poorly. One has to decide which flavor of bear market we are in. Basically how severe of one. Gold/silver don't have the baggage that mining companies have. They are just metals. They don't have debts and balance sheets and loans etc etc.
The great depression was the exception but other then that basically if there is a mild to moderate bear cycle then miners do fine. If there is a severe bear cycle then miners do bad and it is because they depend on banks to service them and if banks are in trouble then anything serviced by them is effected.
What flavor bear market are we in? How severe? I don't yet know but I know we are in a bear market. S&P chart over the last year shows it with lower highs and lower lows over the past year.
I think a market dump is coming. I think bears have been correct for the past two years but they were way too early. I smell something actually brewing now.
1) 2 and 10 year treasury yields are kind of showing it.
2) Corporate earnings are way down.
3) Leading economic indicators like manufacturing and consumer confidence have been bad the last month or so.
4) S&P 500 chart looks toppy and looks like it is rolling over. Since May last year it only puts in lower highs every few months.
5) June has some events coming which could be a problem like the UK vote to leave the EU.
6) Only US economic data that looks good is housing and jobs numbers HOWEVER those are lagging economic indicators.
7) The economies of the rest of the world are fighting off deflation.
8) POTUS election year
9) Bear/bull market cycles every 8-10 years. Last bear market was 8 years ago.
I am bearish for the first time in 8 years. I feel the best way to play the market would be to stay out as of now or even short some. There are ETFs that are bearish like UVXY TVIX DRIP TZA SPXS LABD FAZ and many more. I entered several of them yesterday. As for DUST/JDST they are a bit different because they are bears against what is perceived to be a market hedge so a bear on a bear. If the market only stumbles then miners would do well and DUST bad. If the market crashes however then miners get destroyed because they are part of the market and just like in 2008 would crash with the market if the financial system is in trouble so DUST would do great. I actually believe the market is headed for very hard times. I don't know for sure about a crash but I think some hard times at least. I will play a bear for now and as for DUST/JDST they in my mind are hit and miss because the severity of a market dump would determine if they do well or not. Minor market dump and DUST won't do well but a major market dump and miners would dump also so DUST would do great. DUST doesn't go against gold, it goes against mining companies and that is a little bit different. Actual gold doesn't have the baggage that mining companies have.
Agree, this time actually they didn't make any rate adjustments. The thought was that they would ease more because most think that they need to because their economy stinks. They did not on this round however and that was a "surprise". So what we have is the following results from central bank meetings. The 3 big ones anyway.
ECB held steady
FED held steady
BOJ held steady
Japan Central bank can be thanked for the drop in the $ and the rise in gold. Also it can be thanked for their own stock market going from up a couple of hundred to down more then 400. DUST/JDST got through the US FED meeting and fared fine but it looks like the Japan Central bank meeting caused this reaction. Typical, have seen this movie many times lately.
Yea I agree. I was anticipating no hike and yet somewhat hawkish statement. Actually it was a little more hawkish then I expected but all in all it was about what I expected.
Yea, bought 1.91. FED statement was what I anticipated. I made a smaller buy as I want to see how this reaction carries through. So far reaction has been kind of flat across the board for the most part.
I'm back in
I am almost certain that they will not raise rates at this meeting. This is why I am not in DUST/JDST currently because I anticipate a knee jerk reaction when the FED meets, similar to last week for instance when the ECB met. Then from there afterwards I expect miners to have their hard correction.
I expect more then likely a repeat of the same movie we all just saw last week and several times before.
This is becoming too predictable however so it also would not surprise me to see the market throw a curve ball. The curve ball would be for gold/miners to actually fall for once this year when a central bank meets. Every time so far this year miners go up big when a central bank meets. I kind of think they have trained everyone to expect it now. Usually that is when the market throws the curve.
Too many ifs right now so I'm on the sidelines for now. Will wait for FED meeting and subsequent knee jerk reaction.
Yea, that sounds right. I'd say GDX has completed wave 5, it looks to correct and wants to correct but has one final pop in it perhaps before fully correcting. That final possible pop before full correction could easily be accomplished by FED meeting. After FED meeting I agree with you it is DUST/JDST time for a few weeks. I'm going to stay out until after FED meeting. For me the reactions are too unpredictable to want to gamble with.
Starting to look like the call that some of us had that GDX was in impulse wave 5 last week looks to be correct. Can't confirm yet but its looking like correction wave time. Only hold up for correction wave is FED meeting IMO.
Yes, that is what they think. They think absolutely, slam dunk gold is going well over $1300. They even act as if it has already happened. Miners are priced as if it has and they keep getting bought on any tiny little dip as if gold is already at $1350 and continuing higher.
Nothing however is a guarantee and I don't think it is smart to count the chickens before they hatch. Gold still can't even get above and hold $1264. The longer it takes then I think the likelihood diminishes. What will happen if gold doesn't get to $1300 and over it. Miners are already priced as if the event already happened. It hasn't though. The outcome will not be good for people buying miners right now but gold ends up not getting up well past $1300.
Gold to $1300? Yet again it can't hold $1264. How many rejections is that?
Miners continue parabolic run as if gold is actually well over $1300 though. Doesn't smell right.
"Gold will be well over $1300, it will happen" Well I have been waiting and nothing. For 6 weeks now nothing and as time goes on economy looks better and jobless claims keep falling and stock market will probably hit a new all time high. I think gold has had many chances to get to $1300. It failed, that's what it looks like to me.
China fix thing. I don't care, really I don't. The people who buy over at the China exchange can't even take the gold out of country. It is a closed system. They can't dominate anything if their own system is closed. Typical China fashion though. Also they can't afford to back their currency by gold. China is more broke then even the US and further in debt as compared to GDP. China has problems, a lot of problems and a giant credit bubble. I don't care what they do with their gold in their closed system. Everything they touch crashes anyway. Dollar is "worthless" no the Yuan is worthless. I don't care what it is "backed" by in some scam charade of a closed communist system.
Why are miners still going up? O yes China will dominate world gold market, BS! O yes gold is going to $1350, BS so far. Been waiting, it can't even get passed $1264.
Too much BS being spewed in the miner sector. I think I'm buying back in DUST/JDST soon.
Here are the scenarios in my mind. If gold cracks $1264 then the gold chart goes with the bull flag and negates the H&S. From there I could see it finally going to that $1300 everyone already assumes is a done deal if it also got past $1280s. If that were to happen then GDX would go to $27. Correction for miners would then happen there.
On flip side if gold can't get past $1264 again then H&S is still kind of there but also there would be many failed attempts at breaking $1264. Miners are already priced as if gold was already $1300-$1350 basically so if gold even stays here in the $1250ish range then a correction in miners would happen here at GDX $23 I believe.
This is what I have been waiting for. Wanting to see if $1264 ever breaks. From there I can more easily see the gold and in turn GDX direction.
And that is why I sold my JDST yesterday. I get the heck out of the way when any central bank is meeting. Too many crazy reactions. Heck in this case pre-reactions.
Will watch today from sidelines. Mostly interested in if gold can finally break $1264. All this talk about $1300 and yet hasn't even been able to get passed $1264. The daily gold chart is interesting right now. There is a head and shoulders but also a bull flag. To me $1264 is key. It breaks it and finally it could be on its way to $1300. Would have to pass $1280s first before though. If it doesn't break it then it is another failed attempt and with so many now it won't be looking to good to me.
$1264 is all I'm watching here today.
Well last time Draghi yapped at ECB meeting there was absolutely nothing to make Euro go up and dollar drop...but it happened lol. Gold went up 20 bucks. $/Euro/gold effect from it only lasted one day but still. We are dealing with an emotional market nowadays, not a logical one.
Alright heading out for the night, gym time, see everyone tomorrow. Good luck everyone.
Possible dump phase starting IMO.
Also and something more real is that put action on GDX is picking up and some traders are making some big bets on GDX falling to about the 19.75 area. Makes sense to me because as the chart shows that would take out the pump parabolic part of the run in GDX this year and place it back down to about where it was before the pump started a few weeks back.
Another thing is maybe those "in the know" already know for the most part what ECB says tomorrow. Who knows.
Final thing is that it is no surprise to see selling in miners with them being up over 100% in 3 months ahead of earnings. Have to look at it this way. If someone is up a whole lot in a mining stock do they really want to risk their gains and hold through earnings knowing miners' earnings reports usually aren't all that great? Probably not for many.
Pretty good earning put out by Newmont. They are the cream of the crop so not surprised their earnings were pretty good. Their earnings however fall very short of the company's current valuation.
Alright everyone, nice day today. I'm out and going to relax. Talk to everyone tomorrow and lets see what the ECB has in store. More so what reactions to the ECB have in store.
You don't have to sell if you don't want to. Miner bubble will pop. It is an obvious pump job. DUST and JDST will go nuclear but I have a rule. I don't hold these things ahead of when a central bank is about to meet and yap. The reactions to them are just too unpredictable. If I had to predict though miners dump tomorrow which would be opposite of what has been happening when a central bank meets.
Earnings reports by mining companies will be bad, they are always bad, they are crap companies for the most part and many are insolvent. There are a few pretty good companies but majority are crap. Only one that might report good earnings is Newmont.
ECB meeting tomorrow is the only reason I sold and only did so out of caution but it is past due time that the trade go the other way for once when there is one of these central bank events. I have a feeling it is possible that the ECB meeting drops miners tomorrow instead of what usually happens.
Thanks man. Alright just sold the JDST at 2.82 for 15% total gain including the buy in from yesterday too. I know for sure DUST and JDST have a monster brewing in them. Waiting for ECB tomorrow and then I'll be back at it. Best wishes to you, will talk to you later.
Looks like I nailed that trade today here. I don't know how the heck I do it but I do it. I'm 5/5 on JDST and 9/10 on DUST on trades and this is when they are in a horrific downtrend. Can't wait until I can see what I can do when they go back up. As posted I had that JDST buy at 2.40, nailed that sucker. Nice gain again today. I'd hold but ECB meets tomorrow. Although one of these times this will break the other way when there is one of these events.
That is what is kind of weird though. Gold has not been going up. It is flat for the last 6 weeks stuck in a trading range of about $1220-1270. Miners are up 50% during that 6 weeks. They are not following gold right now and have not been for the last 6 weeks. They go up no matter what under any circumstance and then the excuse for the day gets reported by the media.
Look at today, miners up strong and gold flat to slightly down. They are not following gold, they are following a rainbow. I call BS and I believe it is a pump job. Putting my money down. Bought JDST at 2.40 still holding my JDST buy yesterday as well. Got more cash ready.
Dollar up and market and oil doing well. Gold is flat yet again and yet again people buying up mining stocks. GDXJ with pps over upper bollinger band with RSI of 74, fast sto of 97 and full sto of 96.
I was still holding my SKLN from my Friday re-entry. Even bought some more yesterday. Looking pretty good today. I just sold for a 18% gain. The warrants it has makes it a bit unpredictable otherwise it is a beautiful play but with those warrants it makes it tough.
Saw this right before I was signing off. The severity of the market dump will dictate what gold and miners do. If the severity is mild like a normal correction then both gold and miners should do well. If the severity is moderate like 20-30% market dump then gold should do well but miners start to do bad as the severity gets worse. If things actually get bad then there will be deflation. Everything goes down. Gold will go down and miners would crash with market. Last time there was deflation was in 2008. You can see when it came gold dropped. Gold did not drop near as bad as the market though. Gold miners did terrible however because they are dependent on banks to survive. Once the bailout went through in late Oct 2008 then miners started to recover ahead of the market.
Mild market dump = gold and miners do well
Moderate to strong market dump = gold does well and miners do ok at first but get dumped as things get more severe
Market crash = deflation has come and nothing escapes. Gold will drop (along with all commodities and property) and miners will crash with the market
What is going to happen I don't know but I have a feeling things could start to turn sour in June. Hopefully not, I don't want deflation or crashes or financial meltdown etc. Hopefully just corrections and we move ahead.
It is going to depend on gold how your trade ends up looking. If gold ever gets its butt up to $1300 then GDX will go to $27 probably and the bloodbath in DUST/JDST would be even worse. If gold can't then there is zero reason why miners (GDX) should go any higher (they shouldn't be this high right now anyway). If by some absurdity GDX is actually able to go to $27 without gold even getting over $1300 then it will correct very hard down to $17-19 afterwards IMO.
Take care guys, will talk later, signing off for the night.
Ah, sounds fun. That is the American way lol. I just like to see people voting. Without getting into politics I am happy when people are voting. It makes vets happy to see it :)
Remember last week I was saying GDX could get as high as $27 or $23 area give or take could be top and I thought it was 50/50. Yea, I still think that. It depends on gold and if it can get up and above $1300.
If gold can't then $23 GDX is the top. If gold gets to $1300 then GDX $23 is justified according to past years. For GDX $27 gold needs to hit $1350.
I'm 50/50 on it right now. Gold isn't going straight to $1350 if it does go up there and GDX is already $23 so I don't see too much more upside in GDX/GDXJ from this point. If GDX were to get to $27 and gold isn't well over $1300 then I'll get my big boy money and load huge into DUST.
Yep, that is what I read. How did the voting go? Hopefully lines were not too long.
Most of the time they will follow gold, yes. I was saying they are not exactly the same trade though. Gold is a hedge but in my view mining companies are not. To clarify this is why.
Gold doesn't have a balance sheet. It doesn't have earnings. It doesn't have a debt burden. It can't go bankrupt either. Mining companies however have all of those things that can drag on them. Gold doesn't have baggage and mining stocks do to sum it up. Gold can be a hedge against the market but mining stocks will get killed with the market in the event of severe financial/market turmoil. Miners do well if the overall market is correcting or erratic but once a market turns from that to an actual crash then miners get the snot beat out of them with everything else. A good illustration would be 2008. Look at the charts back then. You will see as the market turned sour in Oct 2007 that miners did pretty good until March 2008. Then as the market moved from what looked like a correction or erratic or just a bear cycle into something more severe further into 2008, miners then crashed themselves.
It depends on the severity of the market selloff. If the severity isn't too bad then miners do well. If the severity is great then miners get absolutely smashed.
Remember mining companies have baggage and depend on banks for survival. Gold does not have baggage. That is the difference and why they are different trades in my view.
Newmont sets that tiny dividend based off of the price of gold. For $1300 or less that is what they give as a dividend.
Got that right. Market has been goofy for about the last year. Usually acts that way heading into elections and acts that way heading into bear cycles.
Alright mining companies start to report earnings tomorrow. Newmont is on deck. They will probably have the best earnings of the sector. Newmont actually has their stuff together for the most part unlike the rest of the sector. I expect Newmont to have pretty decent earnings. I expect them though to be the cream of the crop so after they report I expect miss after miss after miss or at least earnings not meeting expectations after Newmont.
Good luck voting, hopefully the line isn't too long.
O I see what you are saying. Yea that is a lot, hmm maybe wave 5 is over, guess we'll see tomorrow. If it is over I did buy some DUST/JDST today. If it isn't over I have a lot of cash to play with.
Here is something to think about. Since the start of April GDX is up about 20% and GDXJ is up about 25%. Gold is flat over that time. I could understand GDX and GDXJ going up some while gold is flat but 20-25%. Silver has been up a good amount though but still.
Waiting for wave 5 in miners to complete, then a correction wave should hit.
Yes, must do your civic duty! Important to vote. I did not buy a lot of either JDST or DUST today. I have a feeling it is a repeat of last week so that would mean two big up days for GDX/J. Today and maybe tomorrow. I will probably buy a lot more JDST/DUST tomorrow and go from there.
DRIP SPXS and TZA I have my eyes on maybe in late May or June for a play.
Joined you for a flip. Also bought JDST too for a flip. BTW I am starting to set my eyes on DRIP SPXS and TZA. Not buying any of that yet but I think those will be good runners sometime this late spring/summer.
Yes my friend I think so. For the first time in 8 years I am bearish on the stock market.
GDX and GDXJ I believe are in impulse wave 5 and a correction wave is coming. As a trade I have entered JDST at 2.67 today. I can not tell however if GDXJ is at the start or end of wave 5. Many times with the elliot wave is that you don't know for sure until after the fact.
Other then a trade here or there I keep my money sitting for the most part. I actually do believe deflation is coming. I believe starting in June is when pain starts to come to the market. I am setup similar to you. Only difference is that I don't own gold. I'd actually take silver over gold but deflation is knocking on the door I believe so what I actually plan to do is hang out in cash except for the occasional low hanging fruit trade. Once June arrives I think everything will be setup and from there I might take on some risk and short the market. All sectors and any sectors. It doesn't matter. As in 2008 if deflation comes then all sectors (including mining stocks) get pounded.
Miners will follow the market and trade with it. Actual gold and silver are different animals then miners. If deflation comes miners (along with everything else) will get pounded. If deflation does not come then miners will go higher after they go through a correction wave. They will begin a new upward impulse wave. The thing to decide is if deflation is coming or not. I believe it is. US data had been looking better in Feb and Mar but more recent data is not looking very good. These are my thoughts.