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Re: None

Thursday, 04/28/2016 4:44:09 PM

Thursday, April 28, 2016 4:44:09 PM

Post# of 13238
I think a market dump is coming. I think bears have been correct for the past two years but they were way too early. I smell something actually brewing now.

1) 2 and 10 year treasury yields are kind of showing it.
2) Corporate earnings are way down.
3) Leading economic indicators like manufacturing and consumer confidence have been bad the last month or so.
4) S&P 500 chart looks toppy and looks like it is rolling over. Since May last year it only puts in lower highs every few months.
5) June has some events coming which could be a problem like the UK vote to leave the EU.
6) Only US economic data that looks good is housing and jobs numbers HOWEVER those are lagging economic indicators.
7) The economies of the rest of the world are fighting off deflation.
8) POTUS election year
9) Bear/bull market cycles every 8-10 years. Last bear market was 8 years ago.

I am bearish for the first time in 8 years. I feel the best way to play the market would be to stay out as of now or even short some. There are ETFs that are bearish like UVXY TVIX DRIP TZA SPXS LABD FAZ and many more. I entered several of them yesterday. As for DUST/JDST they are a bit different because they are bears against what is perceived to be a market hedge so a bear on a bear. If the market only stumbles then miners would do well and DUST bad. If the market crashes however then miners get destroyed because they are part of the market and just like in 2008 would crash with the market if the financial system is in trouble so DUST would do great. I actually believe the market is headed for very hard times. I don't know for sure about a crash but I think some hard times at least. I will play a bear for now and as for DUST/JDST they in my mind are hit and miss because the severity of a market dump would determine if they do well or not. Minor market dump and DUST won't do well but a major market dump and miners would dump also so DUST would do great. DUST doesn't go against gold, it goes against mining companies and that is a little bit different. Actual gold doesn't have the baggage that mining companies have.

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