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Why do you think I only own "4 bonds" ?
I own a lot of the senior bonds. Original trade was long the senior converts + short equity + long a put spread.
I retain only the bond position which is minimal cost due to the profit on the others.
My analysis is that the bonds will return between 0 and 20 cents of par, and have a chance of being the new equity. But good chance they are wiped out as well.
People here are delusional. The preferred shares rank ahead of you and trade for 1.5% of par. The debt has to return 33x from here before equity sees anything, and the prefs have to return 66x before equity isn't canceled.
You think the 10,000 hedge funds as well as the hundreds of distressed debt specialists out there have it all wrong and some IHub baggies with no analytical capability or knowledge of bankruptcy law have it right?
LOL!
You're going to lose it all. Sorry.
I am a creditor of SUNEQ.
I made enough shorting the equity I don't need the last 12 cents.
Ever ask yourself why the senior bonds trade 97% below par?
LOL
Going to be a painful lesson for you baggies.
Again, for the 100th time. The "positive" equity includes 100% of TERP and GLBL on a consolidated basis. SUNEQ ACTUALLY only owns a fraction of these companies. This number also includes $2B of worthless goodwill and intangibles.
GAAP accounting fiction is irrelevant. Actual economic valuae is what matters in Chapter 11.
Sorry.
Zero.
Sorry Strategyone,
As explained ad nauseum, those are CONSOLIDATED figures including 100% of TERP and GLBL. SUNEQ only owns a FRACTION of those entities. Accounting rules force them to consolidate because of CONTROL, not ECONOMIC OWNERSHIP. One has to adjust for the fact that they only own a fraction of GLBL and TERP.
Also there is $2B of worthless "goodwill and intangibles".
Making those two adjustments makes equity instantly negative, and that is before the huge costs of the Chapter 11, the DIP loans, the massive contingent unliquidated claims such as lawsuits, and the fact that asset values they are selling are at the DevCo level are below expectations.
There is no chance the equity is worth anything. None.
Do the work or find someone who can.
"""if they got the money you can be sure the company was closely scrutinized by the lender."""
Don't be so sure. Depends on how dumb the lender is and how expensive the deal is.
People said the same thing about Opus Bank but turns out they are really dumb and just blew up (cancelled dividends and massive share decline) because of dumb lending to tech companies. They've now stopped doing it lol.
Lots of dummies out there.
Do your own work is my suggestion.
"""Have you found anything to date, that states a dissolution of existing shares?"""
Yes - the docket, the bond market, Microsoft Excel, and 20 minutes.
The asset value only covers a small FRACTION of the debt. Equity is long long gone.
Sorry but you have no idea what you are talking about.
In a chapter 11 reorg Assets less Liabilities = Equity. Liabilities are way, way, way, higher than the value of the assets. Period.
Equity will be cancelled. 100% certainty.
"""It is amazing how short sighted these arguments are and how many holes there are in it. """
Name one.
There haven't been shares available to short for over a week. Believe me I've tried to find some.
I didn't state they are "going out of business".
I said the equity will get cancelled in the plan that will be approved by the court.
If the company survives the bondholders will be the new equity owners.
The reason you are wrong and I am right is called "mathematics". The liabilities are WAY higher than value of the business and assets. Due to the absolute priority rule in the bankruptcy code that means equity gets nothing. As it should.
A chapter 11 reorg is not designed to preserve equity ownership. It's designed so the company can continue to operate (for the new owners - the bondholders).
You obviously don't know how these things work. The debt is all in default and the company can't even pay back a fraction of it. That means equity is gone.
$14K in Clipstream revenue in Q4
lol.....
They have about a month left to get above $1 for 10 trading days.
IMHO delisting doesn't really matter - they could move back to the venture exchange where they belong (IMHO).
What really matters is payroll and how they plan on meeting it in January.
hahaha you got me there brook.
>>>What if the Yeildco's are clawed back? Have these 2 assets been figured into the 'hopelessly insolvency' of SuneQ?<<<
SUNEQ owns minority equity positions in TERP and GLBL. That is the only asset that SUNEQ owns related to the yieldcos, and is most certainly "figured in".
Simpletons point to "consolidated" financials which includes TERP and GLBL, but those consolidated financials include 100% of TERP and GLBL for as required by accounting rules because SUNE has multiple-voting-share control. Their economic ownership is a fraction. The statements also include billions in worthless goodwill and intangibles.
In the very unlikely event that some asset transfers to the yieldcos are "clawed back" (i.e. unwound) then the SUNEQ estate must return the cash from those purchases as well, so any impact would be marginal at best and does nothing to help equity.
The stock is WORTHLESS. If you think the equity won't be wiped, sell it and buy bonds for 3 cents on the dollar - your odds are much better, you are higher in the capital structure (above the preferred shares and far above the commons), and you make 33X your money before commons would see a nickel. Not saying you should do this - just that there is no credible reason to think commons even have a remote chance here.
There is literally no hope.
>>>I diagree...they have plenty of assets.<<<
There are "plenty of asssets". They are just NOWHERE EVEN CLOSE to covering the debt.
That's why the SENIOR BONDS trade for 3 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR.
>>>at this point no1 knows what will happen to common stock...all just opinions<<<
That's not true at all. There is more than enough data to conclude with 100% certainty that the commons will be cancelled. Even the judge used the word "hopeless".
SUNEQ = a zero with 100.0% probability.
The company may survive as an entity but existing common shares will be wiped. Not even up for debate. All of the data is in the docket.
I'm starting to turn my attention to this little company that reminds me for some reason of ANY:
"Nexoptic Technology Corp."
NXO on the Canadian venture exchange.
The more I dig in, the sketchier it looks.
Stay tuned.....
IMHO....
>>But that's not the point.<<
>>The point here, is that after they pay down the debt and assuming that they continue in the same business with the same direction BUT BETTER UNDERSTANDING from past failures, SUNE's inherent value should rise again.<<
The math is most certainly the point.
They are paying down debt by SELLING ASSETS. Once the assets are sold they are GONE.
There are simply not nearly enough assets and value to cover the debt. Not even close. So the equity will be cancelled with 100% certainty.
>>So long as they don't dissolve the existing shares, still seems to me to be a sound hold<<<
But they will dissolve the existing shares. Completely.
LOL
The "example" Brooklyn is using on DSNY is when I simply stated it was funny that the CEO on the CC said something like "it's Friday night and I'm sure everyone wants to get to their cabins". Which was a funny and silly thing to say on any CC and shows how out of touch and silly the CEO of that company is (what percentage of his investor base has "cabins" lol). Brook got all salty and said I was taking it all "out of context" and that somehow I was implying he cut off discussion early (which I never even commented on).
Some days he says he is totally out of DSNY, then days later will respond to someone else stating he still owns a bunch.
A bagholding savant.
What are you talking about they did run out of money and Cyrus had to bail them out with an insanely expensive $2.5M bridge loan almost to the day of my estimate.
LOL!
It's pretty simple. The company burns $5M per quarter +/- They had $5M at Sep 30. The quarter ends in 5 weeks.
Also the Cyrus bailout starts amortizing soon.
They need cash and fast.
This is a fact. Even the company acknowledges it.
They won't find a lender dumber than Opus so if they do get that $25M it will be expensive and most of it will be used to pay off other debt.
I don't think the company survives 2017.
#TimeStamp
"""not even close"""
How so? You don't think the company has nearly $50M in debt? You don't think the company is burning $5M per quarter and had $5M left in Sept (after stretching payables again) thus leaving perhaps 4-5 weeks of cash left?
What's going on is the company is almost $50M in debt and is almost out of cash.
Pretty much a bug looking for a windshield at this point.
IMHO....
All the math you need to know with 100% certainty that the equity is long gone can be found here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3974385-public-service-announcement-sunedison-shareholders-will-get-nothing
It's only become worse since.
It's really REALLY simple. The positive "equity" is only an accounting artifact - they consolidate 100% of TERP and GLBL because they have multiple voting shares / control, but only a minority economic stake. When you deconsolidate to reflect the actual economic ownership, then adjust for worthless goodwill and intangibles, the equity is gone.
Long gone. There is more than enough information in the docket to conclude this for those willing to put in the work.
THE UNSECURED BONDS TRADE FOR 3% OF PAR
Why do you think that is? Because they are taking a massive haircut and quite likely are a zero as well.
The preferred shares, which also rank ahead of you, trade for 1.2% of par. Think about that for a second - someone buying a preferred share now gets to make 83 times their money before common equity sees a red cent.
It's not even a lottery ticket.
It's a zero. 100%. It will be cancelled with 100% probability.
The only people that own the equity are daytraders, fools, and retail bagholders.
No links. Just chatter on the baggy hotline.
I hear Gorilla is out pumping again. Any confirmation?
This isn't a gamble. It's a zero with 100% probability.
Yup. And from the July one:
Steve Vestergaard
"Yeah. I know it’s late on a Friday; everybody wants to go out and enjoy their cabins, so let’s let them go."
My fave from the last CC is when he abruptly cut off the questions and said "I'm sure everyone wants to get to their cabins".
Fool or crim. does it matter?
So the company is looking for $25M to refi debt - that must mean they are, or expect to be (IMHO and speculation) in default of the Opus loans and OPB wants out. Add the $2.5M due to Cyrus in January and even if they got the full $25M that would leave much left over for operations - maybe enough to get them to March.
Nearly $50M in debt, burning $5M per quarter and still shrinking. Yowza.
Even 10 cents is a gift at this point IMHO.
Appears almost as though the plan is to string along and milk salaries and stock comp as long as possible? $2.7M per Q in stock comp on a $27M market cap company. Throw in the Cyrus interest paid in stock and it seems like baggies are getting diluted about 5% a month here.
One question on the CC LOL! I can assure you others were in the queue.
Just enough fluff about "Microsoft" and "proof of concept" to string people along for another quarter.
When was the last time these guys delivered on ANYthing? Serious question.
IMHO....
I think I figured it out. The $40M run rate guidance was not for Q4 2015 revenue, it was for Q3 2016 operating loss. Must have mixed up the Excel cells in the spreadsheet?
Possibly, Atlanta. The sentence is intentionally vague. If it was an acquisition they would likely say so. My guess is it's some convoluted nutty deal.
For the record, the sole analyst on the file, Hubert Mak of Cormark, estimated $19.8M for the quarter so the missed that by mile too.
Wow, what a disaster IMHO.
Not only ins revenue headed back into the toilet but:
$2.7 million in stock comp in the QUARTER lol
Overall gross margin is 28%. That INCLUDES the high margin (~50%) service business. That means when the MD&A eventually comes out the product gross margin should be in the toilet IMHO.
The only "good" news is they are a bit more liquid than I expected with $5M as at Sep 30 (perhaps down to $2.5M by now) so maybe they can skate for the next 6 weeks or so.
However their current liabilities went from $23.6M last Q to $25.4M while the business shrunk - my guess is they are stretching payables out which is why the cash balance is a little higher than I expected.
"The company has signed a term sheet....expected to expand its virtualization biz by more than $6M annually starting in early 2017" LOL that is absolutely classic.
The more granular "Corporate Update" is on a $25M "credit fund" financing. LMAO. If they do that $18M will go out the door to Opus in all probability and $2.5M perhaps back to Cyrus so even if they can pull this off how long do they get to live? All while diluting everyone with stock comp and facing a delisting.
Should be a fun CC.
$47.8M operating loss in the quarter on massive writedowns. Nice.
Results out. $18.5M revenue LOL.
Only 3 more sleeps until we find out how wonderful everything is lol.
I calculate the company is out of money.
My guess is on Monday we get another Cyrus lifeline (say another $2.5M to carry them to Jan) or another big discounted stock plus warrant deal, assuming they can find someone to do it.
I'll be calling into the CC on Monday. Will they take my questions?
Are you aware the company is frigging BANKRUPT and even bondholders are taking a huge loss here?
The spectrum is approved for satellite. They are trying to get FCC to approve a repurposing of the spectrum for WiFi. TLPS has ZERO to do with satellites.
Wow. Always nice to know who the bagholders are. Lol!
TLPS has zero to do with satellites lol. Do you even know what it is?