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AMD hasn't been over $40 for "the past few months". Looks like you'd have been much better off buying INTC puts...
INTC is "back in 1975" today. :)
Not so fast, there.
Really? What's all this talk about relative Conroe performance then, 6 months out?
Regarding Joey, all I can say is I certainly wouldn't want him anywhere near my financial accounts.
Seems like AMD is late to know what is going on
What makes you think so?
as did the other apps besides F.E.A.R.
Mmmm, so "ignoring the apps that showed a performance increase, there was no performance increase". Good one.
AMD may not even get to 3GHz without 65nm, and if they do, it will be a high wattage, boutique part against Intel's mainstream 65W part.
Just because you say it makes it almost certainly not so.
You're forgetting that Rev F is also reducing power, aren't you? You've forgotten about AMD's new gen SiGe strain, haven't you?
frequency doesn't scale perfectly in all apps,
It has proven to scale much better w/performance with the K8 with its IMC.
I don't buy it.
Why not?
L3 cache is a ficticious item,
Sounds like you're pretty scared of the notion. This'll be yet another wbmw misprediction.
it wouldn't raise performance 10% across the board.
But on specially designed Intel demos for a part with 4MB of cache?
IDF over... folks selling on the news? INTC $19.86
silicon castles in the sky
What does IPF have to do with anything?
Paul, I'm sorry that you're $19.xx INTC shares have got you so angry. You've still got about 57% of your investment, though.
As for the 900lbs of elephant dung that Intel manufactured, well, inhale deeply all you like.
So like I said, no change in performance.
Right... like you said, 1 = 0. Brilliant.
sAM2 is >10% clock/clock right there. Add on another speedgrade, and that's 17%. Without 4MB of L3.
And add about 10% for SLI instead of Crossfire, the former performing much better with AMD processors than the latter.
+7%.
Now add 4MB L3 for, say, 10%.
+17%.
Seems to me, AMD stock will soon be the in the "teens"
You must be the same Joey Smith that bought February $30 puts on AMD in January. Do you throw money away often?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9306975
Posted by: Joey Smith
In reply to: greg s who wrote msg# 24066
Date:1/18/2006 3:08:01 PM
Post #of 25857
I just picked up a bunch of AMD Feb. 30 Puts. I dont think Intel will allow AMD much mkt. share gains in the 1H this year, so I can see their ASPs being pressured here.
Joey
And you thought Intel wouldn't allow AMD marketshare gains in H1! Too funny.
You might yet challenge wbmw for the Mr. Contrarian Indicator 2006 award.
(which I already told you isn't going to happen)
Given that the opposite of what you "tell people" happens more often than not, what does that tell you?
BTW:
-------------
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=29738
AM2 FX line to up cache
Think 4MB
By Charlie Demerjian: Thursday 16 February 2006, 09:17
[...]
The next gen of AMD FX chips will have the full 'big cache' Opteron level of L3 cache, most likely 4MB. Until software becomes much more threaded than it is now, this will be more than enough to keep up with the competition, or at least keep things credible. For the first time, the line will be more than a plus one bin and no hard multiplier lock. [...]
------------------
No change in performance.
Uh: "F.E.AR. at 1024 x 768 saw a reasonable gain of 4%."
Any additional false claims you'd like to make this morning?
Intel just became a teenager again!
DDR2-800, Rev F, speed boost, plus not using an old buggy bios (-4% performance) and using nVidia instead of ATI will all contribute their fair share. The L3 doesn't need to give +20%.
Day 2, and Conroe's future "lead" has already shrunk.
As for relying on cache being "sad", I guess that's your view of these Conroe benchmarks, run in non-SMP mode where one core gets 4MB of L2?
Conroe XE will likely have very little *if any* advantage over a sAM2 FX part w/ L3 cache.
greater than AMD in Q4.
If you mean Q4 2005, you may be close. :) And if you think "many AMD longs have bailed", why do you think AMD is trading at $37.xx/sh, and INTC is still trading at $20.xx ?
Kate, how's that $37 INTC target looking? LOL, indeed.
Bzzzzzzt wrong.
When did you unload those Intel shares?
IPF is dead, Paul. Get over it.
I've been consistently in wait-and-see mode, so your track record on me over the "past couple years" can't be more than your own faulty memories.
LOL! Don't make me dig through the public record of your wrongheaded predictions.
Everything that you've "seen" over the past couple years has turned out the opposite.
ROFL
still Reeling Over Financial Losses, paul? Did you ride Intel all the way down from $35?
In light of not being the top performer
They are the top performer. All Intel has is futures at this point.
> Mr. Contrarian Indicator.
That's your title -- you've earned it well over the last couple years.
Maybe. I expect it will be very close. +/- 5% average. Then the K8L will arrive, and should give AMD a large advantage on the FP side.
>>Re: You'd have a point, except that Rev F was *designed* to accomodate L3 from the start.
Do you have a link?
>>Re: And they ran custom demos on custom drivers
No evidence of this.
>>Re: strangely, didn't run the same software on a P4 system...
Nothing strange about it.
1. See the Inq discussion of L3 on Opterons and on the FX parts, and the 2/15 xbitlabs article detailing the changes made to Rev F parts, based on the japanese presentation.
2. custom demos and drivers both mentioned in the Anand article you quoted.
3. okay, sure. Nothing strange at all.
Though any congratulations on selling AMD from wbmw has to be taken as a sign that it is soon to move higher.
More big talk, more no-action from Mr. AMD Puts.
Ruiz did NOT say "including high-performance desktop PCs". He said the opposite, that AMD would fill high ASP orders first, if they faced capacity constraints. Meaning server, commercial desktop, anything high-performance consumer. Obviously, what they would cut would be Semprons. It doesn't take much of a brain to figure that one out.
There seems to be an increasing amount of doubt that these will come with any increases in performance.
Anand "IDF Access" Shimpi was speculating based on model numbers, which is *weak*. The Inq reports multiple sources averaging better than 10% clock/clock improvement for AM2 over 939.
Not likely. AMD can't just bolt on more cache at a whim. You will see.
You'd have a point, except that Rev F was *designed* to accomodate L3 from the start.
They also gave AMD the best graphics solution and the best timings of DRAM possible.
And they ran custom demos on custom drivers, and strangely, didn't run the same software on a P4 system...
Uh huh. Yeah that must be why Intel didn't have a P4 XE running alongside the Conroe and FX-60.
Something's fishy.
Bingo. That's why they didn't provide a P4 EE running all the same software. Because then folks would say, hey, wait a minute, something isn't right, as we know the FX60 should have a lead over the EE, and yet it doesn't here.
Imho, you must still be sore about your account balance. INTC stock was in the teens again today. Too bad.
I think Intel chose benchmarks that:
(1) Took advantage of the bandwidth limitation of 939 vs. AM2 (it doubles)
(2) Took advantage of the ability to use 4MB of L2 for one core.
(3) Took advantage of who knows what else, given the special software, and closed boxes, and lack of current P4 performance reference point.
Number 1 will be remedied across the line by AM2.
Number 2 will be addressed by Rev F FX parts, which, per the Inq will come with L3 cache, probably 4MB.
Number 3 will be addressed in the fall, when independent reviews are conducted.
That doesn't fit with the May/June launch of Dempsey.
This year, however, it looks like Intel owns the crown with a fair amount of certainty.
Uh, Intel doesn't own any "crowns" until you can buy their products. You're about 6 months early with your claim.
Don't you find it the least bit ironic that Great Intel feels the need to mention their smaller competitor by name, and stage a black-box comparison between their next-generation 6-9 month 65nm future part and the competitor's 2-month-old last-revision 90nm part?
Even when running a non-Intel created demo, ... on Intel-setup hardware, using Intel-modified drivers...
That's the kind of answer I'd expect from you.
You aren't actually surprised that when Intel sets up BOTH machines and installs special demos and drivers, they get favorable results, are you?
No NGA parts until Q4? What will Intel sell until then?
Intel Details New Chip Technology
Tuesday March 7, 2:23 pm ET
Intel Details New "Core Microarchitecture" Chip Technology
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Intel Corp., the world's foremost chip maker, on Tuesday provided more details about its new "core" chip technology and said it expects to start shipments in the third quarter.
Intel, the maker of Pentium and Celeron, said the first products built on its new technology will deliver higher-performing and more energy-efficient processors that spur more stylish, quieter and smaller mobile and desktop computers and servers.
Intel expects processors based on the new "core microarchitecture," to start shipping in the third quarter.
"People will see systems that can be faster, smaller and quieter with longer battery life and lower electric bills," Justin Rattner, Intel's chief technology officer, said in a statement.
Intel shares fell 32 cents to $19.98 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq.
--------------
October launch? That spells painful Q1, Q2, and Q3 earnings for Intel.
Intel NGA part launch now in Q4?! (Only "shipping" in Q3)
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060307/intel_chips.html?.v=1
Intel expects processors based on the new "core microarchitecture," to start shipping in the third quarter.