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I can understand the frustration - join the club - most of the people here have been waiting for a long time hoping for a big payoff.
I have a more positive look on things:
- there is the drill requirement before july
- there is the 5 well drill requirement stipulated in the farm out yet to be completed
- the 3 million from perseville pays for 2 wells, Perseville will fund the 5 well drill program resulting a 41% ownership for TGC
See all sec filings and the TGC presentation for the facts.
You also seem to be afraid that nothing will happen because oil prices are half what they used to be. Most analyst don't predict returns to those levels again for the next years so I'm sure HENC & TGC are well aware of that fact as well. Waiting doesn't make sense when you accept that fact.
Considering the license requirement before July, the well program as stipulated in the farm out and all recent developments then it looks like it's now or never to get 5 wells drilled.
The sooner the better...get going HENC & TGC
It's been a quiet week, let's see if something moves next week
News about drilling would already make me happy ??
Come on, get moving henc & tgc
We all face the same problem with our "dead money", we all want to see drilling in march but that decision is not ours to take. Hopefully we'll see some news concerning drilling dates soon...
Saw that as well and mentioned it in my previous post.
Would like to see some update on drilling now: dates/plan and the like...
Great idea about the press release concerning the seismic, both companies should do that (HENC and TGC). A lot of new investors would then find their way to their stock. It would also put themselves on the radar of the bigger oil companies out there if a buyout is the eventual goal...
It's indeed not logical, tgc should be worth more then henc based on % ownership. Either way, we'll make great money on both when the potential is recognized. We should go higher when drilling starts.
There is some good new info in that presentation:
1. TGC ends up with 41% ownership if Perseville funds a 5 well drill program - better then I had hoped for:
"Perseville is not required to transfer its earning contribution
to Terra Nova in the event that it pays its proportionate share
of the drill costs. If Perseville elects to fund all five wells, Terra
Nova would obtain a 41.05% ownership."
2. PEL 112
3D SEISMIC
127 sq km of 3D seismic was acquired in August 2012 in
addition to reprocessing 665 sq km of 2D seismic, which
generated 40 drill targets
3. PEL 444
Sixteen drill locations
Slide 13 is indeed fantastic: 1460 hectares - structures similar to nearby oilfields, a potential 80 million barrels of oil (2 billion $ of net value at 50$ barrel oil).
4. Perseville - our billionaire insider is investing more of his money in here, bullish sign...follow the smart money
You should deduct the cost per barrel as well so that makes 2 billion as net value
HENC will sit at 28%, that is a certainty since it's stipulated in the farmout.
Since TGC stated that 3 million is enough for 2 wells then the cost per well is 1.5 million (cost is probably still declining with oil demand lower).
How much ownership Perseville and TGC will have depends on that definitive agreement or other partner/financing announcments (which I would prefer since any new Perseville deal will cost more in % ownership).
There are several possibilities here:
HENC: 28%
Perseville: 31%
TGC: 36%
other: 5%
or
HENC: 28%
Perseville: 31%
TGC: 31%
other: 10%
Delays are annoying but we can't do anything but wait. Next week looks interesting then: more partner news and the remaining financing. Hopefully we're then ready to drill in march !
Thanks for the info genstock, can i contact you via email ? Pm me contact info if possible
That's good advice, stories don't add to my bank account so company progress is important.
Waiting for more progress this week...
Any idea what the cost per barrel is ?
In their PR's they state they identified 8 drilling locations so the question is: will they drill 5 or 8 wells ? If they drill 8 then they will need more money then what you propose.
Also see that non-dilutive aspect from the last PR, if Perseville provides the money then they will earn more than that 5%
How this is exactly calculated, nobody seems to know for now, we can continue to speculate about all ownership aspects but we'll only know for sure when everything is PR'ed and documented...can't be that far away now...
I'm still betting that they will have the largest % ownership, it's my largest holding...
Once drilling is happening then I'll bet we'll see more activity, especially if the wells are successfull.
There is also an uncertainty factor here, untill all money matters are settled then there is more visibility on % ownership. HENC doesn't have that uncertainty, you simply know they will end up with 28% ownership. We'll see more activity when it turns out if TGC ends up being the better buy before drilling is on it's way.
Let's hope for some good news next week...
If HENC and TGC hit 15$ then my working days are probably over, now that would be something...
I believe monday is a holiday in the US and Canada so news is probably tuesday at earliest ?
Regarding your question for my broker: I use Binckbank, it's an online broker in Europe. Transactions for all US stocks go via Pershing/BNY Mellon.
Hoping for some good stuff next week...
HENC ends up with 28% after the farm out is complete (after this drilling).
Perseville is now at 25% + the 5% as agreed for the 3 million dollar. As I read the PR correctly then after the farmout they don't need to transfer their 16% to TGC (as was agreed by chelsea and sakhai initially). I still don't know if their agreement is for this complete 16% or only for a part of it, the PR isn't clear on that, that's why I wanted to wait for the definitive agreement to recalculate.
TGC now sits at 25%.
It will probably look something look this in the end:
Henc at 28% (this is quite certain)
Perseville at 30% (or more depending on more financing)
TGC at 30%
10% for another party or Perseville (I bet TGC will give up this 10% for more money to drill)
I thought about trying to look into that today but came to the conclusion that it's useless untill we know about ALL financing, it looks like the last PR is only a part of the financing and more is in the works with perhaps more loss of ownership. I think we'll know more in about 2 weeks.
I don't mind since I bought them
You've made some fantastic predictions as well (no oil, nothing down there, etc...). If it hasn't already the latest developments should prove you're incorrect (again...), you have no credibility.
I'm a HENC buyer today...
It will be less than 42,5% because of this line as stated in the PR:
"Perseville will not be required to dilute its existing working interest as required under the Farm-In Agreement with Terra Nova."
So the question will be how much less, this still isn't obvious to me.
The ownership % still isn't clear to me, will have to look it up but it looks like it will not be 42%.
Also, from all the latest PR's they said they identified 8 drilling locations, so what is it going to be: 5 or 8
8 will cost more and have an impact on ownership if they do another deal like this...will have to wait and see.
Have some mixed feelings about this deal, I've posted it on the Terra Nova board as well:
First, did you notice that Perseville now owns 25% ? After the Chelsea deal it was only 12% so that means they've bought out Sakhai. Check out the investors presentation on the terra nova website, it now also only lists Holloman, Perseville and Terra Nova as owners of the Pel's.
Why is this important ? Because of the following line in the PR:
"As additional consideration for the Purchase Price, Terra Nova will grant Perseville (which currently owns a 25.6% working interest in each of PEL 112 and 444) the right to fund any future wells drilled by Terra Nova on PEL 112 and 444 in proportion to the working interest contribution amount of Perseville set forth in the Farm-In Agreement. In the event that Perseville provides such funding, Perseville will not be required to dilute its existing working interest as required under the Farm-In Agreement with Terra Nova."
If the farm-out is completed (after this drilling campaign) then Chelsea and Sakhai were supposed to transfer about 16% of their ownership in the PEL's to TGC. The above line indicates that that is now no longer the case (my interpretation of that line - I could be wrong). This means that TGC can now never own 55%, it's probably max about 40% now (I would have to recheck the % owned by each party to verify).
I also hope that they don't give up 5% ownership for every 3 million dollar (for drilling 2 wells). Since the drilling campaign would be for 8 wells then you see where this might be leading: 4 x 5% ownership for 4 x 3 million for the complete drilling campaign. This would give Perseville 45% ownership, HENC 28% and Terra Nova 27%.
I'll await final judgment after the definitive agreement has been made and more information is available on further financing.
It's actually more than 5% but you'll have to read carefully. I have mixed feelings about this deal.
First, did you notice that Perseville now owns 25% ? After the Chelsea deal it was only 12% so that means they've bought out Sakhai. Check out the investors presentation on the terra nova website, it now also only lists Holloman, Perseville and Terra Nova as owners of the Pel's.
Why is this important ? Because of the following line in the PR:
"As additional consideration for the Purchase Price, Terra Nova will grant Perseville (which currently owns a 25.6% working interest in each of PEL 112 and 444) the right to fund any future wells drilled by Terra Nova on PEL 112 and 444 in proportion to the working interest contribution amount of Perseville set forth in the Farm-In Agreement. In the event that Perseville provides such funding, Perseville will not be required to dilute its existing working interest as required under the Farm-In Agreement with Terra Nova."
If the farm-out is completed (after this drilling campaign) then Chelsea and Sakhai were supposed to transfer about 16% of their ownership in the PEL's to TGC. The above line indicates that that is now no longer the case (my interpretation of that line - I could be wrong). This means that TGC can now never own 55%, it's probably max about 40% now (I would have to recheck the % owned by each party to verify).
I also hope that they don't give up 5% ownership for every 3 million dollar (for drilling 2 wells). Since the drilling campaign would be for 8 wells then you see where this might be leading: 4 x 5% ownership for 4 x 3 million for the complete drilling campaign. This would give Perseville 45% ownership, HENC 28% and Terra Nova 27%.
I'll await final judgment after the definitive agreement has been made and more information is available on further financing.
It is not a matter of overthinking but more of trying to put a number on the potential here; thanks for your input though, it is appreciated.
Awaiting news for liftoff...
Anyone any experience in calculating the possible net value for companies with proven reserves in the oil & gas business ? Any multiples involved ?
Timing has indeed been an issue, it's now more than a year and a half after the previous drilling so everyone is getting anxious to get things moving. I first invested here in 2008/2009 so I've been very patient and I hope the payoff will make it worthwhile.
PM me if you can share any particulars since you've made me curious (can't PM back)...
Concerning your Beach question... I guess they were able to acquire those shares (on the open market) at the right time -> energy market/stocks on downside so people were dumping, good timing by them. They didn't have to chase the SP so that makes all the difference, it also helps that Beach has a MASSIVE share structure and float: 1.2 billion
A bullish sign if you ask me, they invest their own money so they are expecting a healthy return...follow the money !
I would agree with you that it would have been more efficient and much faster to apply for permitting when they reviewed the seismic, it would only seem logical (why waste 2 months of time ?). So we are to guess as to why they didn't (we can't peek into the board room so we don't have factual information).
My guess would be that the financial side wasn't (or isn't) concluded yet, untill all signatures are on paper then the company can issue a PR with all details. I don't know how long these permits are valid so they probably also took that into consideration (if they would have applied for them before having financing in place).
When we hear about the permits then we'll probably also hear about financing and (hopefully) drilling dates, can't be far away now...
We still need to wait for the permits before drilling can start.
I've been waiting for years to see how this will play out so I'll wait patiently, a few more weeks won't kill me...
Warren Buffet: "The stockmarket has a way of transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient".
I seems that you haven't figured out yet that they are an exploration company, untill they drill wells (and hit oil) they will not earn money. Get the facts and do some real DD !
Again, you haven't done your DD, the company is debt free, see their last PR.
Now why wouldn't they get a permit ? they got one for the previous campaign so why not now, it seems you haven't done your DD or you would have known that.
You don't speak for everyone
wow, so you know for certain that there is nothing down there, please enlighten me how you know that with 100% certainty ?
You accuse others of speculation but you yourself are doing just that right now with that statement.
You will only get 100% certainty when acreages are being drilled, then we'll see the results.
Everyone can understand the fact that falling oil prices also reduces the market value of the reserves that can be proven and in such impacts stock price of the company, this is only logical.
As of today, Brent oil seems to have stabilised at 70$, citigroup says oil will average 80$ in 2015.
Since the cost will be 25$ per barrel then even if oil drops to 60$ or lower then there will still be a very nice profit per barrel.
Also don't forget that they get an extra 10% premium next to Brent prices.
The falling oil price is something to pay attention to but it will not stop their current drilling plan.