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MOAngler. I think it's important to remember that not all of this price tumble was the result of the dilution. The share price had dropped from .03 to .0182 on it's own before shares were issued to Iron. You can't really hold them accountable for all of this. And if the share price goes back up because they have assets you didn't previously know about, I doubt they'll get much praise for it. This is just the discovery period. Until they are registered and have disclosed financials expect the unexpected both good and bad.
Nope, there is no total value target for how much Iron can make, if you take a look at the filing again. They want to ensure they can make 2.3M so they base it on the volume weighted average prices for the stock. So the calculation says whatever the lowest five day average price is take that and run it through the calculation to figure out how many shares they get. They have complete discretion over when to sell shares and they don't have to stop once they've made 2.3M. So in all likelihood to maximize profit you would sell as much as you could at the start to get a good price for them. Then you keep selling to drive the price down for five days so that you earn as many shares as possible. Then you let the price go back up as high as you think it's ever going to get before you sell any remaining shares. Monday will give them their fifth consecutive day below .0182. So they should be content to let the price rise after that.
Yep I've been tracking the VWAP average and I have it estimated at .012825 so far.
At the current average VWAP over the past four days they are entitled to 308M or so. I expect that they are very close to already selling this number with the 482M traded over the past four days. They need Monday not to go crazy to get their five day average and lock it in so there might be some resistance if news comes out. Come Tuesday I think that Iron will want to see the price rise. They will know their approximate total shares at that point and want the best price for whatever remains. They may not sell for months or even years however. Their website states that they still own shares of all the deals they have done. It's possible they could become longs like us once they have their total number of shares figured out. It would be in their best interest if they know what they are holding and I'm sure they do since they went out and bought the debt for this. Wouldn't be surprised if they hold 10 or 20M long. Just my thoughts.
482M traded since the debt resolution.
Plus any t-trades popping up in the next 30 mins or so. If dilution isn't done it should be close to done IMO. Monday will give them their fifth day of a reduced share price so as long as there isn't a dramatic increase they won't have much incentive to continue driving it down. They will have an approximate figure on how many shares they get after monday and they will probably wait for the PPS to increase and sell off smaller chunks at a time until they reach their number. I would expect that the worst of it is over.
Looking forward to it IMKCBUCKY. Any particular topics you guys covered?
APT working with Aerocharger?!
Looks like APT is working with a turbocharger company to setup some ridiculous powerhouse system.
http://www.snowest.com/forum/showthread.php?p=3631723
Aero Charger http://aerocharger.com/
This is WILD speculation but...
Anyone think maybe APT was buying this morning? They finally have access to their money and they know how cheap these shares are right now. Just speculation but that was HUGE volume in the first hour.
That is the board's ranking on IHub. Right now we have the 5th most posts on the day.
There are so many inaccuracies in your statement my head is spinning.
The prodigal son returns.
Incorrect on several counts. It is a 7% markup and they are not allowed to dilute all they want they have a capped number of shares at 435M. They will not be issued any more shares than that unless the 5 day average VWAP falls below .0075. If the VWAP stays around .01 then they will only get 300 some million and if they sold more than that they will have to buy them back.
Correct CD
But keep in mind that they can sell more than that number if they want to. They can sell up to the 435M they were already given. But if they do that, they have to buy back however much they sell over how much they were actually entitled to. I think this is going to be a huge boost for us next week or the week after when they need to buy back 100M shares and the float is locked up.
I think Pyrogenesis (PYRNF) is a good buy this week in small quantities.
The technology is great and the revenue growth is about to get out of control. I do want to caution folks that this stock does not do a large amount of volume due to a lack of knowledge of the company. However, those that own it practically refuse to sell. I am suggesting folks take a small position this week prior to earnings which are likely to show big percentage increases. I believe earnings are going to increase substantially because of several recent contract wins and especially because of a down payment on a recent large contract win. They did not specify the amount of the down payment only that it was "substantial". See the link here: http://www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2013/12/03/pyrogenesis-canada-announces-4-million-european-sale-of-plasma-waste-to-energy
They also recently signed an LOI for a $15M contract which will finish negotiations anytime in the next month or so. They are also expecting several other contracts in the $10M range. All this for a company that made about $5M over the last 12 months.
2013 Earnings are due next week so you would need to get in before then. Last year it was released on May 1st. This has high growth potential especially in the next three months. It should be noted that every time earnings were great or a large contract was announced the volume and price increased substantially. Great swing stock pick for small amounts.
Some thoughts please read folks
I'm expecting two more bad days which sucks but it would seem to fit with the most logical strategy for Iron. They want to have 5 bad PPS days on record to get the most shares for themselves. They should still have a fair amount of shares left they can sell since they were given 435M and the past three days have seen about 350M traded and not all of it can be them.
However the APT letter to shareholders could help counter Iron depending on what they are willing to address right now. The important thing people should remember is that Iron is doing us a favor. By dumping all these shares at once we are getting a chance to buy shares cheaply but the outstanding shares are only increasing by 5% which means it doesn't really make a difference in how the company will be valued later on! This is a short term event!
Think about it this way. If you thought the company was going to be worth a 200M market cap before that was a PPS of .05. After this debt is cleared that same market cap is now at .0476. If you have a million shares this means that what would have been worth 50k is now worth 47.6K. The sky is not falling.
I do not believe that APT is one of those shady OTC companies that just dilutes and dilutes. They are doing this for a reason and it is to help the business. They aren't padding their own pockets they are paying off debt with bad terms (that's smart think about your own finances) and they didn't seek out Iron they were forced to do business with them after they bought the debt. They had debt because they are growing at a ridiculous rate. Your cash flow can't possibly keep up with the equipment and infrastructure you need to buy to finance this growth. Especially when you may not receive payment for your products until months after you deliver them.
This has been a really lousy few days and it might be a few more before it gets better but it will. The valuation of the company has not changed much at all. We have just cleared a bad debt situation, freed up cash flow and gained control over the finances of the company all for a 5% change in the OS. Remember that none of us own more shares that APT's management. They want to see the share price go up even worse than you do. They are going to make it happen.
I actually think Iron probably wanted the deal structured this way. They stand to gain more than the 2.3M if they execute their trading strategy appropriately. APT on the other hand gets to keep the money that they finally have access to now. It's like a private placement for APT but in a pretty backwards sort of way. Personally I'm glad they took care of this now.
Nice catch wealththrupennies!
As they described it, they have now opened "the lockbox" on their reserves! I am visualizing them opening an Indiana Jones treasure chest in my mind.
Hey B!
Thanks so much for your thoughts I think there is a lot to look forward to here! I do think you misinterpreted the agreement specifics though. I wrote my thoughts on it last night around midnight. Take a look and see if they make sense. From my perspective there's a strong chance they will give more than 202M but it's really unlikely they will have to give the full 435M. It should be somewhere in the middle and will depending on the lowest 5 day average of the WVAP over the next 30 days or so.
Correct!
Fundamentals will kick in eventually but we have to wait for the dilution to end. Until then they are just hitting the bid every chance they get. Fudamentals don't mean anything, charts don't mena anything. Not until they're done.
How do you figure?
It's not the market.
There are 435M shares Iron can sell right now. When they are tapped out then we move up. When they are tapped out they will actually have to buy back millions of shares so we will move up very quickly. Just hold onto your shares and buy some more cheap ones if you have extra cash. You guys are acting like this is some company that is constantly diluting your shares. They have made one transaction and it was not even their choice. Iron bought up their debt and came to collect.
APT has a 7M dollar building and 4M in tax credits. Even if they didn't make a product they are already worth 11M. They are expecting to make 20M this year. If they hit projections then they are growing revenues at an average rate of 135%! Do you know what kind of forward multiple that warrants? A 50M market cap is a joke. Sell here if you like losing money. Buy here if you like making it.
MOAngler Why debt was needed
You mentioned that you are worried because they have been given multiple lines of credit here are my thoughts. The following is a list of things that they needed to pay for recently in order to drive future growth. I am going off the top of my head so forgive me if I miss anything or misrepresent.
They completed building and certifying an emissions testing center.
They bought and outfitted a new product development center.
They are developing the Sonic Flow and other new products such as their adult mini bike.
They are developing a presence in Mexican markets.
They are developing small engine technology for drones.
They are developing technology for use by auto manufacturers.
They developed a cast version of their smart carb.
They are developing new variations of the smart carb for OEMs.
They hired management team members, accounting and legal consultants to prepare for going public.
They financed their reverse merger.
They are developing generator products.
They are developing complete fuel systems products.
If I recall correctly their "tax payer subsidy" was in the form of a 2M tax credit. This does not provide any new immediate cash on hand although it does prevent cash from being paid out later. I suspect the majority of money from the credit lines were spent outfitting the new facilities to deal with the demand level. That takes major equipment and manpower which cost money. These are costs that are above and beyond the day to day business and designed to fuel future growth.
Yes it sucks that they diluted the shares and didn't warn us. But what were they supposed to do? They need to clear debt and they need the market to buy it. That's the point of being a public entity is access to financing. You get to make a decision about whether you think the management is capable of growing this company but all of the indicators I see point to yes. They are proceeding with everything in the most logical manner possible. They have responded to shareholder questions and concerns and even fought to hold the share price this week with a couple of pr's. They have managed to grow it from an idea to this point so why couldn't they continue to succeed?
Demand is there, growth strategy is in place, time to clear bad debts, change symbol and name, fix share structure, release financials, then hopefully announce large contract wins. If it were me.
Don't forget how many shares management owns!
Troy Covey - 75M
Douglas Pritt- 25M
Wayne Patterson- 75M
William Maher- 145M
William Dyess- 75M
Total- 395M
Don't you guys think they want the share price to go up too?! They are going to do what is good for shareholders because they are the biggest shareholders! These guys are restricted for a year though so you need to expand your time horizons.
I also want to bring a point up that I raised before. Look how many more shares William Maher owns than everybody else! Maher is the financial expert at APT, the one who is probably the most aware of just where this stock is headed. Looks like he snatched up as many as he could!
Cool read Iris
Thanks!
I got it from reading the 13G filing. No I am not a pyschic but I can use common sense to put together a story of what is going on. It's simple game theory. Each side is going to do what is in their best interest.
CDHames
Agreed, they only need this to stay low for five days. They likely sold a very large percentage of their shares on days one and two. Once they hit their five day mark then they will run the price back up and start selling more once it is very high again. Meanwhile APT doesn't want the share price to go down for five days so they are likely to release some more info in the next few days.
No one should freak out over this. It's a chance to get cheap shares and then watch them increase after the five day hold down period is up. Easiest 50% you will ever make.
Agreed all this has an impact but not much of one when it comes down to it. If they need to add five or ten percent to the outstanding shares to be debt free come financials time I'm in favor.
CDHames
I do think you misinterpreted the second part. I read it as the number used to calculate the total number of shares issued (right now .0182 is their example) can not exceed any five day average of daily volume weighted average prices (VWAPs). The shot clock on this is the time it takes to get to 50M worth of shares traded.
Basically that .0182 number may not actually be .0182. It will be either .0182 or whatever the lowest 5 day average of the VWAP is until we hit 50M worth of shares traded. 50M worth of shares traded should take a little over 30 trading days at the current rate.
So what does this mean? It means that it is in APT's best interest to keep the share price up so that they can issue fewer shares to IV and have less dilution (Maybe that's why we saw a PR?). Meanwhile IV's motives are a little more complicated. They want to sell high but they want a five day average that is low so that they are entitled to more shares. So likely they unloaded alot of shares early on at a higher price and then released the information of the agreement to upset shareholders so that the price would go down (notice that IV released the statement not APT, in this case APT may have been trying to protect shareholders against dilution by not creating a panic while IV benefits from a panic). If the price stays down IV is entitled to more shares. How many more? Well if the lowest five day average of prices was .01 then they would get about 325M in shares. If it got to .0075 it would be the full 435M.
In the meantime IV can sell all of their 435M shares trying to drive the price down in hopes of more shares but...if they sell all 435M and the five day averages stay high then they will be forced to buy back up to 235M in shares at much higher prices. Therefore, I would expect APT to be racing to get the ticker symbol change and financials out and maybe even releasing some more PRs. I would also expect IV to keep tapping the bid until their 435M runs out.
What can we do? Well if we were to buy a ton of shares and run the price up then we may force IV to buy 200M shares from us at a higher price later, assuming they keep selling. If they don't keep selling then the dilution is over anyway and it doesn't matter and we got more shares at a great price.
My two cents.
FROZ or APT Debt?
Anyone have thoughts on whether that was FROZ or APT debt that got settled? I reviewed the 10-K for FROZ and I only saw 1.25M in liabilities. It left about 1.1M unaccounted for. That makes me think that they had bought up APT debt not FROZ since it seems unlikely that it would be a combo of the two to me. Anyone else have a take on it?
That shouldn't be a fear that should be a hope. Reverse split is not a dirty word. If it helps get us uplisted next year why would it be bad?
Watch for the big buys end of day again.
Probably just after 3:40 is my guess.
VLF
I can understand why they would have an emissions testing facility for their products but do you see this as a revenue driver? The way he gave it its own category made me wonder if there is a significant revenue stream we here we haven't even considered.
Does anyone know what the emissions testing division might do?
$FROZ CEO STATED "APT is poised for rapid growth through our new public company," said Wayne Patterson, CEO. "The combination of our three divisions with focus on emissions testing, disruptive fuel systems and propulsion technologies, and advanced powersport and utility products places us in a globally unique position only held by a few of the very largest companies. We look forward to an exciting 2014 and an even better 2015 and beyond."
100M in volume on no news
Huge buys end of day today and yesterday.
Price driven down all day and then wham! Pretty strong indication that someone knows what they are doing and they are getting themselves a huge amount of cheap shares.
Watch for the end of the day fireworks. They are going to be snatching huge chunks of shares.
Good to see you back Jerry. I made some calculations yesterday on projected pps under different financials. Take a look at those posts, might be helpful?
PPS thoughts continued
Had a friend point out that PLUG is probably a better comparison for FROZ. PLUG has a price to sales ratio of 43. Just goes to show you the potential run this could get on. That would put the FROZ PPS at .21 for revs of 20M and .73 for revs of 68M.
That was my interpretation also. If it turns out to be earnings I am selling my car (literally) to buy as much as I can as quick as I can.
Similar strategy here. Huge growth potential long term with great management group in place. Mandatory long term hold. Very heavily invested at these levels.