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AJ, Do you want to see a high volume capitulation day or do you think the volume 1-23 was sufficient. Was thinking they would literally start puking stocks out with abandon.
Thanks,
Anyer
I'm with you;would like to see high volume PUKE!
US dollar comments:
MARC FABER: Well, basically, I agree with Michael and I think that if you buy today at 10 years the US Treasury, or 30 year US Treasury, you’re flirting with disaster because they will only perform well in an environment of total deflation, given the low yields they provide at the present time. But as I said, the concept of inflation and deflation is very complex because you can have an economic system where some assets are inflating and some assets are deflating. Like in the US, say in the last 12 months, you would have been better off in US Treasuries than say in the housing market, which has declined in value. So in general, I of course agree with Michael to be in stocks in the long run and to be in precious metals and in energy in the long run and so forth. I’m not sure whether that is the right medicine for, say, the next three to six months. I mean I’m very cash rich here. I’m cash rich US dollars. I think the US dollar does not have a significant downside risk against the euro. In other words, if you put a gun on my head and said, “Marc, you have to choose one currency today, for the next three months: the euro or the US dollar,” I think I would choose the US dollar. Although, I’m very negative about the US dollar in the very long run. But just for the next three months I think the dollar will hold because the current account deficit is now shrinking, the trade deficit is no longer expanding and so forth and so on; and the dollar is relatively inexpensive vis a vis the euro. Would the question be: put all your money into US dollars cash, or put all of your money in gold? As of today, that would be a very tough question because the gold market in my opinion is now somewhat overbought and could undergo easily a 10 to 20% correction. [47:59]
http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/2008/0112.html
Maybe yet to come:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2008/0201.html
There is AJ's 1420-25 possible kissback at the redline.
Barron's interview pertains to Renminbi and Gold:
http://online.barrons.com/home/main
AJ, All very good points. Indeed it is very difficult to predict as pointed out in The Black Swan. I still keep trying[failing] however. But the insight gained from trying has served me well.
Chainik thanks. Here's Rogers interview in the UK.
http://www.financialradio.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=234&Itemid=1
AJ, I'm not saying he is correct in his extreme outcomes, only the trend of decline. The dollar will not fall that fast and is due for a good counter trend rally as you suggest. The Euro is another currency only backed by more socialism. Tell me how to buy the Chinese Renminbi for my diversification. I think Jim Rogers pretty much agrees with the general trend which is why he left for Singapore.
AJ, IMO this guy is pretty much correct;only the timing remains to be seen. The US is a more and more socialistic country and will reach the same endpoint as the pure socialist[communist] countries did, i.e bankruptcy. I have believed this for some time and that is why my only house I own is outside the US. I rent here. Taxes to supporth the welfare state are just too high everywhere in the US. Today half the population here is in the "business" of trying to take from the other half either by government taxation, lawsuits or entitlement.
Palladium equals SWC and NILSY
AJ, Any thoughts on lack of gold volatility as a bullish indicator?
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/schaeffers+short+takes+light+volume+on+todays+gold+rally+/observations.aspx?click=home&ID=82216
2 nice long tails on DJI and SPX!
MELI and ABX only positives on my screen. Bought BG 99.50 sold 104.60. Crazy day.
AJ and Tea, Monday is a holiday. You think we get a short covering rally tomorrow or Friday?
Rally attempt unimpressive it appears to me. Appreciate you guys keeping me from foundering and crashing on the shoals.
Bubble in commodities! Maybe not with overpopulation.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/15/world/europe/15fish.html?ref=world
5 fold rise in price of fish.
CZZ an Ag sugar play from Brazil!Long that as well as AGU,BG and CAGC. Sold SEED at 12.
As always thank you!
AJ you think little chance of a Monday meltdown?
Silver stocks rocking. PAAS broke out. Am long this.
Bought some DRYS as it hit oversold on daily and has divergence in RS on 60 minute.
AJT and Tea, IMO you guys are truly GURU's of charting. Thank you so much for this thread. I was spellbound yesterday watching the 1378-80 area knowing of your calls. I took the trade and did well.
Anyer
MOS earnings up 6 fold! Some firms are making a killing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080109/aqw008b.html?.v=1
People are not likely to stop eating.
PPT getting ready for attempt to "fry the shorts".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/07/ccview107.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
AJ They don't seem to be able to stop the Ag stocks which I guess is another indicator of significant inflation coming.
Long SYT and BG. Looking to buy AGU. Also bought GG and PAAS as inflation plays.
Looking at ABX looks as if FED will cut 50 or even 100 basis points!
Of note Ron Paul did poorly. Socialism grows stronger in an entitlement society. The country will reach the same endpoint as Russia and China did [bankruptcy]. It just takes social democracies longer. I don't plan to vote unless it's with my feet.
Fertilizer stocks resuming private bull run. TRA,AGU,MOS,TNH,POT,CF
EOG breakout
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=eog,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
Let me disagree! Evil bubble was in paper money. The socialist scammers are going to see loss of confidence.
AJ, BG broke 120 and is rolling. Soybeans going up.
Also look at KWK; a nice BO.
PAAS breakout. Paper money of socialism going down!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=paas,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=slw,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
BG shakeout looks to be over. SLW very strong;nice C&H.
CNEH breaks the downtrend. Tax loss over.
Actually BG needs to break 120 on the 60 minute chart. It may still happen.
BG [ag play] looks to BO on 60 minute.
Long NE on the BO.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=ne,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
using the PB to get 90% long here. Adding to Chinese peanuts. CNEH,SEED,CPSL,CBAK. MELI a heck of a trader today.
EXM,DRYS,TBSI lifting.
EXM and DRYS looking higher. Long EXM 41.80
Chinese peanuts could run on tax loss selling completion. SEED,CPSL,CNEH,GSI
Fertilizer stocks still working. AGU,TRA,TNH,MOS,CF,POT.