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We are up on light volume today...nice to see. Few sellers at these levels left?
Fundamentally very solid yet. Technically, looks like we almost perfectly hit the ascending trend line around 8, similar to the 8ish down to 6.5ish correction/consolidation. Hoping it holds, if not we could see a another big wave down?
Robert - are you willing to share if your firm is making a move here?
My apologies if this has been addressed recently. But over on the yahoo message board there are posters crying about the 273 'patents'being purchased by Anavex, over in Greece for $72k a few years ago, and now suddently worth $200m, can anyone elaborate on this never ending argument, either here or on Yahoo message board? Thanks in advance.
I notice that too...looked like a sell and only dropped .10, must have been a negotiated tute sell. Maybe I should consult with our new expert Robbie before I pretend to know anything...
My 2 'sense' is the bulk of retail shares are in very strong hands. The vast majority of shares in the float were purchased through private placement or institutions, which I believe are likely holding long term due to being more educated on what potential lies ahead.
Fund managers are probably allowing days like today with low volume to wash weak retail hands who are not as familiar with what lies ahead.
Ice, nice to see you back. I echo your thought...The condition monitoring while in transport(with intervention need notifications?) is VERY important, and likely why Cryoport is the preferred shipper with immuno-therapy. That data needs to be available from the customer's end for reference (at moments notice) to prove no negative impact to the product during transport. I'm not aware of any other logistics company that has the capability?
I've worked in networking at a larger healthcare system and we were tasked with finding a 'temperature monitoring system' that was networked and could be placed in all fridges(even patient rm fridges), freezers, cryogenic freezers etc due to healthcare regulations. AeroScout was about the best we could find, who was aquired by Stanley(?) shortly after we installed their system. It was hugely expensive because nobody else could collect the data wirelessly, and turn it into a web-based interface that any employee could access.
Cryoport has something special, they were ahead of their time, but it has come, and the 2 big wins lately validates everything we theorized about. Now the tutes believe:)
Nice to see a filing where they are 'deregistering' unsold shares. Is this a way of letting investors know they won't need to raise additional money? Or are they cleaning up books to file for a money raise at higher prices?
One comforting thought is, to raise $10m now, it hurts a whole lot less at $7 or $8 maybe even $9...
And to close the week a 160k Buy as the last purchase!?!? Id say the tutes are in heavy accumulation mode. A 40k share buy started the rally today...if Im looking at the chart correctly, it looks like smaller sells walked it down in afternoon....likely retail shares moving to the tutes.
Rinse and repeat until they have what they want. Just my 2 cents.
Here is nice article alluding to a link between Cryoport and GE. It describes GE's new 'thawing' process of cryogenic cells "once delivered", and how big the cyrogenic market has become. GE Healthcare MUST have it's eye on Cryoport!?!?
http://www.biopharmadive.com/news/cell-therapy-emergence-opens-up-new-markets-for-shippers-logistic-companie/504476/
You touch on a big part of why I participated in the private placements a few years ago. I had lots of faith in Cryoport's services, as long as demand was 'on its way' I figured the risk of losing my entire investment (which often happens in start up private placements) was small. Cryoport has a niche service provided to the 'gold miners' they do very well, with little comparable competition as far as Ive seen.
My biggest concern has always been when the real demand would come...and it looks like we've finally found some...
Agreed! Do we get a close above 9??? We are looking VERY strong!!!
Deleted my own post:) Thanks for the clarifications...
Talon, read the prospectus. Lpc is just selling shares they acquired last round. No procedes to anavex...
"We will not receive any of the proceeds from the sale of shares of our common stock sold by Lincoln Park"
Correct me if im wrong...
Did anyone catch this sentence;
"We will not receive any of the proceeds from the sale of shares of our common stock sold by Lincoln Park"
Are these shares being offered by lpc the ones purchased last round? They are just selling into market now I believe. Non-dilutive market cap wise, but float MAY increase quite a bit.
So Im a bit nervous about this gigantic run we've had. We have some really awesome things going on now, but are we realistically 220m market cap company? We might have 20m annual rev this fiscal year...next year maybe 30 to 35m?
Is there more potential I suppose...but when one equity holding becomes by far the largest in your portfolio...isnt it wise to sell a fewqq4 and lock in some gains?
Started the day nice but ended a bit weak after a big contract win. Suppose it was largely expected/built into share price already. Closed above 8 for first time though!
So any technicians around? Are we at a short term double top here or are we just hitting a little resistance?
After the ride today it feels like big boys are undecided and we need some more consolidation, see what tuesday brings.
I would agree with that, pharma will stick to what they do best.
That said, I could also see one the large carriers taking a crack at us, natural fit being they have their software integrated with ours already. Would also create a synergy they could capitalize on.
Right on Rev, long term we are solid, maybe I'm just a bit disappointed I didn't trade a few of my shares after the huge run!!! No stock goes straight up without creating a new base right?
Ouch...looking at the chart, if we don't hold the 6.70ish area is the next technical support around 5.50? We are still lofty based on trailing revs, long term still solid investment imo.
I'm curious how the new 'cures act' will affect Cryoport's vast client pipeline of trials. I know the intention of it is to reduce the time to market and expense of drug development. Rules go into affect on Sept I believe, so maybe we'll see revenues ramp a bit quicker in coming years.
Yeah, I highly doubt 25m in the bank will get us too far. However I can also see how strategic execution of each trial could lower the blow to cash.
I'm still sticking with my theory...sharks are circling(shorting), just waiting for the little neon 'need cash' sign to turn on.
Maybe this theory has been expressed here already but...
Is there a possibility that 'venture capital' is artificially manipulating the stock price low because they know Anavex will need capital to fund trials? Obviously in their best interest to invest low.
I just went through this with Cryoport, the writing was on the wall, everyone knew what the future held, but share price just wouldn't appreciate. They needed cash on hand to support an inevitable event so they raised money at a discount, and a couple months later the stock is up 250% for an announcement everyone knew was coming.
I see, based on many excellent posts here and on DD, that Anavex has the potential to rock the Alzheimer's world, yet we can't gain footing on valuation. It just feels like the big money is playing a manipulation game to get more for their investment dollars later.
Then share something intelligent. My take; they burn a lot of cash, dilute like dryships, and have little sales. At .06 a share...maybe $4 for the whole company is fitting.
Spammer. That ticker appears to be a shell scam...
Guess anything is a 'suprise' then eh!
Liking the price action today, think the tutes are involved after all...
Yeah I guess some revenue growth, but gross margins didn't budge much either...could be a long wait for profitability.
Wonder what the SP will do tomorrow. I think the institutions will let the price float where ever retail takes it. Although as alluded to, I don't think there were any real surprises here. Its the future potential that is finally getting attention so maybe we'll be ok.
Right, really doesn't look good when a fat raise is handed out if numbers don't support it. Can't help but think it's part of his contract regarding milestones, that being the Novartis contract. Would make much better sense to tie to a financial milestone like reaching cash flow positive...
Just a theory based on coincidence...
I hope today's price action is not indicative of tonights report...hopefully just nervous retail holders
Simply a pre earnings bump...likely move in one direction or another tomorrow depending on conference call Info
Falconer & Talon - thanks for the great replies.
Still looking for more convincing evidence, but hard to pass on the recent slide to add a few shares. I'm convinced any announcement of further trials will send us much much higher. I cannot see how at this point, further testing/trials are denied.
Now would be a good entry point, earnings bump coming soon! And we will get a better feel for how the tech data deal is or is not affecting business..
I suspect revs will grow but likely in line with past few quarter % growth. Im hopeful we see many additional new clients, as with the Novartis contract may cause a 'follow the leader' reaction from other companies. Would also be nice to see some rev guidance from the Novartis agreement, along with some form of total rev potential going forward (not likely since blowing estimates from a year or 2 ago). And maybe we will get a feel for how many additional potential fda approvals we'll see in the next year.
Also, gross margins need to show improvement too, or the light at the end of the tunnel gets a bit dimmer.
We can hope the market keeps valuing the stock at 10x forward revenues.
Falconer, list looks pretty good. Haven't posted in a while, but I'm curious how you see the lack of independent reports of Anavex's potential. Most other 'up and coming' biotech's are like sugar to ants with article writers, where are they? If Anavex truely had all this great potential, the world would know it...you cannot hide this, this day in age.
Based on all the posting on this message board, I'm a believer, but it nags are me that there is no hype from the 'outside'. Woudln't you expect it after a successful phaseII, especially regarding Alz?
Long, but not so strong.
30 minute Technicals looking very good for a move up right now...time to add a few shares imo...
Without knowing terms of the commercial agreement we really dont know how profitable this will be.
With the recent run up on anticipated news now being released, and quarterly report coming soon im really wondering if a reality check will hit us post quarterly. Revs are likely not going to skyrocket this quarter or next, increase yes but how much and what will margins be?
Im hoping cash position is adequate for a few quarters yet as another money raise would send us lower in a hurry...
Very happy with where we are today vs 6 months ago though!!!
Big battle between longs and shorts going on...who wins is anyones guess...
Oh, and yes, these $3 'free' warrants originally expired in 2019...so Im hesitant to exercise em for the few I have and the pain of getting to liquid common...
Yeah, I took the offer at 1.50 and received an additional warrant at $3 for every 4 exercised. Also participated in the 1.25 repriced warrants before that...so the recent run is nice to see, just too many ups and downs over the years.
Yeah I should have been a bit more explanatory...if you take 4.92 - 3.57 (exercise price) you get 1.35...thats the 'in the money' value. However the cyrxw will cost you about .40 more...which is the 'time' value. So most of the cost in cyrxw is the 'in the money' value. If the stock price drops...your 'in the money value' theoretically will fall significantly with the stock price.
Yes if you are a gambler and really believe the share price will be much higher at expiration then cyrxw is a better play. Im not convinced we will stay at our current share price without having a pull back...at which point cyrxw will likely fall significantly. Holding the common is safer...hence the lower return but virtually no chance of going to zero. If we happen to be at 3.50ish in 2.5 years...cyrxw will be worth zero.
I currently hold much more common than tradable warrants...but on a pullback more tradable warrants may be added.