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mark:
let me get this straight .... you have appro. 800 posts to date and starting posting (1st in march,2017) constantly march 2017 almost daily it seems ... and you state your average price is $1.85..... but back in late 2016 to end of SEPT 24, 2018 AMARIN's stock price never below $ 2.20... how do you reconcile this difference ..... as well as whining in every post to get rid of JT, the BOD , shares given to principals of AMARIN ,ETC.
Whal'
AMARIN knows that 2019 will produce $425-440 sales revenue.... all conferences JT has attended, all CC's they have had since submittal of SDNA, all Medical shows JT has been on,etc, have questioned him concerning him about potential API supply to cover increased scripts.... take into account just last weeks 8o,ooo scripts, approval of VASCEPA starting MONDAY 12-16,2019, Approvals from AHA,ACA,ALA,ADA,etc, sales to be gained from scripts sold each week to Lovasa/generics coming to AMARIN..... NOBODY expects sales of $650-700 for 2020.... even the analysts reporting stated that 2020 projections are low..... and sales people in AMARIN have said it is to low... THE MARKET EXPECTS CLOSE TO 1 BIL. AMARIN (DID'T) lowered guidance, they gave A low guidance .... can you tell the difference???
Monday,downward pressure on price was lower guidance and after 4:00 o'clock after the market closed then information came out concerning a patent settlement, continuing downward pressure today (tues)... two separate situations piggybacking on each other....
Made a perfect BEAR raid by short's/mm....
Tasty
Amarin gave them an opening and they drove a truck through... we have to be smarter...
WHAL":
As usual you brain seems to be malfunctioning...... what does a patent case have to do with lowered guidance.... slow down on the medications that you take. We need your wisdom commenting as you do about nothing...
hdg:
Read one of our analyst updates MONDAY when she said our forecast was low ???
Yes fedex reported lower sales and eps for the quarter,but read into CNBC analysts reporting on tv, when they made quite an effort reporting lower next quarter guidance and market reaction.... the prices went from minus $5 TO minus $12 in a hurry....
HDG.... WHY has amarin share price gown down $5 in two days ???? please give us you views.....
I stated lower quidance, analyst reporting, false naratives in published articles, and not finalizing GENERIC COURT CASE,etc.all in a matter of 48 hrs. THE BIGGEST CATALYST LOWER GUIDANCE paving the way....
Tasty,
Get a life.... get back to making jokes about everything....or come back with some serious thoughts on how we went down..... future guidance rules the market.... look at FED-EX, aftermarket tonight and what lowered guidance did to share price after their share price had risen in the last two months by 25%.
Mellowmood77,
You are 100% correct that AMARIN'S PR on FRIDAY 12-13-2019, concerning sales projection's for the end of 2019 and 2020 caused this downturn from $26 to $21.... lower guidence killed us.... always look to the future...
AMARIN tried to under promise (sandbag) and over deliver in their forecast.... if they had stated $140 to $150 mil 4th quarter projection which would be 20% over 3rd quarter for 2019, and $800-900 mil (see HDG projection ) for 2020 which equates TO 80-90% over 2019, we would have been fine.... as MELLOWMOOD77 stated, the market looks at forward guidence and JT stating $650-700M indicates only 55-60% growth, the same as last year projection.... considering we should get almost all of the generic sales, which SAM posts each week,that alone get us to $800m...I emailed ELISABETH Sunday and Mon. before CC, to have JT consider changing his projections, stating that over the weekend that these new projections reflect normal consistent sales patterns.... No response...
That would have made OPPENHEIMER'S and the other four analysts projections mute.... see how they stayed within their earlier reports of sales projections...they easily created doubt and made their $2-3 mil 2022-2023 sales projection look solid....
Add that the Generic Case settlement hearing was also on Monday and the non settlement makes Amarin look vulnerable.... you can deal with one issue at a time, but when you have to deal with multiple issues, see what transpires.... Amarin is now on the defense and not the offense...
Take time to E-MAIL Elisabeth giving your imput.....
IT IS about primary and secondary approvals, positive news
This is about approval.... THERO stated that the news was leaked, so he halted trading
Company call (Amarin ) at 3:30pm
Short interest to be posted end of day or tomorrow morning..... Oct. 16-31 was 56 mil... went down Nov. 1-15 to 48 mil.... could end up in this same range Nov.16-30... WHY ?.... because short buyers are buying Calls to cover any upside risk ( losing only the premium paid ) while maintaining what could be made if the stock suddenly drops like a rock....
The increased buying of calls in the $21 to $25 range suggests this is what is going on and will not cause a short squeeze.....shorts are looking for FDA to give AMARIN a limited label for Reduce It results (not primary label)....
Tasty..
Boards are for information positive and negative about the company... your statement to get STUFFED..... Your humor ????? says a lot
PS
TASTY (tte).... you do yourself a disservice trying to play the middle and trying to come off as someone funny.... light humor is appreciated to a point...
Dmiller:
The article was definitely a soft bash!!!! spent more time spelling out the negative points and then gave a sentence in the bulls behalf
..... continuation of a bear thesis ..... coordinated by someone (shorts).... as BB stated this will continue past APPROVAL until patent case settled, EU submission, and analysts coming out to negate the three studies concerning DHA/EPA (strength) etc.
You have always been negative in your support..... why not sell and just move to new biotech.....
TTE
If we had paid to listen through STAT concerning our ADCOM last Thurs. their reporting would be quite different yesterday, today and in the future... We choose not to listen to them and this is their pay back...
KCS
Evaporate Study was designed after REDUCE-IT STUDY..... it reflects the results of REDUCE-IT or MOA (method of action ).... it helps in the discussion with the FDA in labeling.... now we know why the results were outstanding in REDUCE-IT... as HDB stated we heed to go the full distance of 18 months to see the ARMS separate and reflect possible SIG. REDUCTION... the results are following a progression that JT has emphasized during all the CC's ... and will state today at 4:30 pm CC...
This board gets to over zealous at times .... temper it down.... the PDUAF date is the next catalyst......
JL,
ADCOM revealed that the panel did nod read the DOC'S or do any DD on VASCEPA .... They completely failed to ask AMARIN about the MOA throughout the proceedings...this board is so far ahead of the medical community...
JT is playing CHESS with the FDA..... He is proceeding with four steps to accomplish his goal.... STEP 1 just get the indication approved at ADCOM ...brought the right people to deal with briefing DOC'S ... 16-0 favorable result.... STEP 2 set up late breaking EVAPORATE TRIAL results at AHA conference establishing MOA... high trig's biomarker with lowering systematic inflation as method of action producing outstanding REDUCE-IT results..... STEP 3 work on labeling for PRIMARY/SECONDARY before PDUFA date of DEC.28..... probably a week before CHRISTMAS, so that FDA employees can go on vacation knowing they did something positive for the AMERICAN public..... the SAFETY profile allows FDA to cross all boundaries for this indication.... STEP 4 settle the generic lawsuit before end of 2019 keeping the PATENTS impenetrable ......
Complete the 4 STEPS and start selling VASCEPA to the masses ( volume over price )....
CHESS ( thinking-plan of action ) versus CHECKERS ( one move at a time )
What:
All this time on Dr. Nissen.... why not try to come up with something .... to support Amarin for a change......
JL:
JL, again you flip flop when posting to this board.... look at you posts 221358,221330,and 221318.... you stated you were not worried about generics selling to the market ... AMARIN could lower price, tie up manf. supplying inventory, etc. ... The generic lawsuits are a nuisance according to you...your quote "patents are a small fraction of the show, I'm not worried about whether they hold up or not "...
Now you post " this is a big loss for Amarin..... people are going to buy the cheaper alternative ".....
Your consistency is lacking..... people on this board think you are beyond contempt, a prophet to some..... Which is it concerning Amarin's chance for success..... this board needs to know if you can ( STAY THE COURSE ) to APPROVAL...
HDG:
That's why I said "might" have won..... this goes to trial on Jan 13,2020 to settle the the final issue.... Amarin now puts its legal resources focused on " contributory infringement " ... not their patent ,but what might be allowed on labeling...
CAL:
You're missing the whole point of the court's decision..... the GENERICS were trying to invalidate AMARIN'S PATENT by ( WRITTEN DESCRIPTION ) thus allowing generics to sell an identical drug to VASCEPA.....
This decision today eliminated the generics winning on Infringement, with the other three areas being moot...
What the GENERICS might have won today is to sell a drug for HIGH TRI'S,over 500 ... the same as AMARIN, but their label will only say "HIGH TRIG'S " that it... They CANNOT SAY their drug reduces cardiovascular disease or any other indications that AMARIN files for... court did not allow GENERICS to ever claim OTHER HEALTH BENEFITS on label...
This is a big win for AMARIN..... The GENERICS should settle and wait for patent expiration....
Todd
NO
PPS down to short manipulation and GS analyst new comments...
STS66
AMARIN conceded that VASCEPA reduced high tri's in some patients within 4 weeks and stayed at that level for the remaining weeks of a twelve week study ( marine study only )... GENERICS jumped on that... their label would be identical to Vascepa which would lower high tri's also but would not be for a chronic condition....
Amarins patent used the ( TWELVE WEEK MARINE STUDY results in their lanquage for the patent approval... generics just claimed they could get results under twelve weeks also...
Reloc:
Thanks for the summary... this case goes to court whereas the defendants will seek to sell generic brand for high tri's ( marine indication ) ONLY , with labeling to reduce high tri's in a short duration .... since having high tri's is a chronic problem their labeling can't say they are for the long term...
Gererics can not state on the label that they help with Other Health Benefits,but Vascepa labeling can... they can not state with /without statin use...
AMARINS patents are valid .... the Generics did not invalidate them.... any concession will be limited to the GENERICS ( Marine Indication only ) when the case proceeds Jan 13,2020... this does not allow the Generics to use this against Amarin for the Reduce'it results....
ladavis23:
Spot on......
Hayward;
Low volume daily sales falls right into the hands of MM OPTIONS PLAYERS.... I agree.... but ADCOM approval leaves the FDA little room to be corrupt... therefore daily share volume increases, and scripts will increase accordingly ... the shorts will have to find a way to exit..
Reloc:
Yes, I was talking about the ADCOM for approval of EXONDYS51 IN 2011...the new indication for GOLODISSEN in the ESSENCE STUDY has the same problems with amount of patients included and the results reached... why you mentioned it to begin with is questionable....
You started posting in Dec,2018, which would indicate that you are an options player..... please identify as such...
Review the amount of shares traded (1-2 days ) after JT, gave a sales update for yr 2019 a few months ago...this catalyst ( ADCOM ) is so much more.....
You are soft bashing !!!
Reloc:
looked back in history:
1. 6 minute walk test
2. 12 patients total
3. 7 disapproved/ 5 approved
Reloc:
Please do not use SRPT when evaluating that stock to AMRN.... SRPT should never have been approved with a study around 18 patients... with the measurement of how far the patients could walk from beginning to end..... and an ADCOM that voted I believe approve 2 /disapprove 11.... only JANET WOODCOCK made that approval... and the results from new studies mirror the original study and should not get approval...
Options already listed for Nov.15 are miniscule to the total shares outstanding (total shares are 412.mil with insider sales/mgnt options ,etc )......
Hedge funds, institutional ownership, retail owners will push NOV.15 SALES over 25.mil easily.... could be 50.mill that day....
Please do not soft bash this stock...
Reloc:
What planet are you on !!!! Yes the MM's will try to manipulate the stock....but with 400 million shares out there with 50% retail ownership it will take 1 mil. contracts to take control.... that means 1mil contracts or 100 mil. shares.... This ADCOM result will drive the market up or down accordingly...... how can FDA with positive ADCOM not approve this drug...labeling will set the new price... we're talking at least a $10.00 swing on Nov.15...
This from the " I will not share guy "
Raf:
You just stated that the majority of this board is not worth communicating with.....what DD could you have possibly done?????
Everyone look at RAF'S posts #208478 and @208572 .... concerning him stating " I will not share " WITH THIS BOARD...
Think of today's post #218995 " YOU are not owed this information "
What else needs to be said !!!!!
You know when someone crosses the line, makes a mistake, speaks to fast before thinking about the consequences, etc. they come forward and own it...
Raf
Thats a bunch of bull......you questioned me back in JUNE 2019 on insider sales/ blackout period..... you have no right to make a post of great news, then say you can't elaborate what it is.... then state if someone you already told can now choose to elaborate if they so choose, putting them on the spot... or your news is of no valve since it can't be corroborated by doing a little DD on it..... people on this board are already wound up may buy or sell Amarin shares because of your speculation....YOU HAD NO RIGHT TO MAKE A STATEMENT " great news " considering what has transpired with the PPS the last few weeks...
Raf
still waiting to here the names of those offline that can vouch for your "good news" was discussed with them..... you stated you would produce
Raf.
your a moderator.... now you claim false alarm.... if it was not insider information,why post that you have great information on something previously discussed.... who was informed thru you before you found out you did not have permission to post... this is such " BS " !!!!!
BIO,
Thank you for updating submissions by both parties concerning the Generic lawsuit from Apr. to Oct. 4,2019 thru Pacer Account....
IMO, PACER documents communication between Amarin and the Generic filers...
1. Generics are requesting that Amarin forward to them the full March,2019 SDNA submittal and requested LABEL.... they are also requesting that AMARIN forward any further communication with the FDA thru Oct. 4th... this request to see if any change in LABEL has been submitted by AMARIN to FDA...
2. Amarin is requesting that the Generics forward any communication with the FDA up thru OCT.4TH to possibly see if FDA is corresponding inappropriately with Generics concerning SDNA and LABEL....
Both parties keeping tabs on each other.....
This should not interfere with the rulings by the court on motions submitted by both parties on AUGUST,30,2019 and AMARINS reply on SEPTEMBER 1,2019 concerning "WRITTEN DESCRIPTION".... the court can rule anytime as one does not have anything to do with the other.... either party can initiate a new court case if interference could be claimed that caused the ADCOM and new PDUF date late December 2019. Bio is trying to connect the dots, but no proof as of yet.....
WHAL....
You never wrote a Citizen's Petition on behalf of AMARIN....I could go on further during those years 2013-2015...
whal....
You never wrote a CITIZEN'S PETITION.....don't try to take credit when it is not do.....
Amarins patent case vs generics.....
Amarin Corp. filed an infringement of patent (patents) against two remaining Generics.... Amarin to present a case of validity and the Generics to defend with invalidity of patents. The invalidity of a patent can be established in four ways.... Anticipation,Enablement, Indefiniteness, Obviousness or a COMBINATION of one or more.....
Once a case has been filed with the court (case number assigned) both parties come together for discussions and file an initial report to the court concerning each parties assertions.
The next step is each party sets up depositions with expert witnesses in each of the four defined areas. This process can take months or years with continual reports submitted to the court. When both parties inform the court they are nearing completion, the judge assigned the case sets a trial date.
A final report is thus rendered to the court on specific claims that will be brought and defined for invalidity. Both parties can file motions for partial or final summary when submitting their final summaries.
In this case both parties agreed that ANTICIPATION,ENABLEMENT and INDEFINITENESS were going to be MOOT. The GENERICS filed a motion within OBVIOUSNESS/NON-OBVIOUSNESS on 08-30-2019. They defined their whole case on "WRITTEN DESCRIPTION " to prove invalidity. Amarin filed their rebuttal on 09-13-2019 to the court. AMARIN claims WRITTEN DESCRIPTION was brought between parties at initial discussions.
It would seem that the JUDGE should rule in 30 days or less, in order for both parties to have sufficient time to prepare for trial on 01-20-2019. It would also seem that the JUDGE should be able to rule on this one specific defined issue brought before the court, without a necessary trial. Depending on the ruling either party can then file an APPEAL, the next step.
I am asking any Attorney's on this board to offer their opinions on my summary or offer changes accordingly....