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hi Den,
Bear in mind that price supercedes TA ...
cheers,
john
$SPX Gann ...
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=121968
cheers,
john
hi denmo,
An 80 week low in this market will be the print low for the move. That is one thing I am fairly certain of. I'm still not convinced we have seen it yet.
A trade over $SPX 1090 with volume would start to change my opinion.
cheers,
john
bubbleboy,
Nice work. I'm looking for a 14/15 week and 28/30 week cycle low in Aug.
There are two turn dates to watch: July 30 - Aug. 1 and Aug. 21.
I don't have time to do a full gold analysis, but I will try to visit things late in the month.
cheers,
john
Final decline into 80 week cycle low is next ...
TTheory Vs. Hurst Cycles
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=121623
cheers,
john
I should add that the chart I posted is courtesy David Hickson, developer of "The Hurst Trader".
http://www.sentientcode.com/
cheers,
john
re: Hurst Nominal Model
hi parisboy,
It is great to see you here and others who have posted lately. I'm just back from the UK and have a little time to comment.
I know you have raised these questions and concerns before in another forum and I can understand the dilemma. But I would strongly urge you to take the time and effort to read the Hurst Cycles course (my understanding is that you have not yet). My take away from this material was a much better understanding of price action based on cycle theory. This is the key and why I became a big fan of Hurst's work and his methods. The course material gave me a way to understand how price action works and how it is likely to manifest itself in bullish, neutral, and bearish trends.
There are others here who are much more versed in cycle theory or Hurst methods, but I am happy with my knowledge and understanding of the method. It is not a perfect science or method for tackling these markets, but I do think it gives me an edge. But I also believe in combining my Hurst work with at least 2 other methods.
As to Hurst's nominal model, I do like the different cycle periods laid out in the course. The challenge for practitioners is to figure out how the larger cycles are affecting price action and to anticipate or take advantage of this in today's markets. If one is trading the short term cycles, then very simple strategies can be adopted without worrying about cycle periods beyond say a 5 or 10 week cycle.
It is a much greater challenge to understand the larger picture and what influence the larger cycles are having on price action in today's markets. In my case, I am a conservative investor and I want to be on the right side of medium and long term trend. Hurst does give me that edge I need and keeps me out of trouble for the most part.
I look to the following chart and I always ask as to where we are in the larger cycle view. I remain convinced that we are heading into very large cycle lows in the course of the next 2 years. I derive that from my Hurst work and that is all that I need to know for the present.
The larger cycles of signficance are the 80 week, 4.5 and 9 year cycles. 2003 offered a clear nest of lows for these 3 cycles and now I look for the next major nest of lows out towards 2012. This coming low will likely be a very important long term secular low. But we need to understand price action. When larger cycles are involved, cycle lows can arrive late in the case of bearish price action. As I have the current 80 week as well as the 4.5 and 9 year cycles pointing down, I will be extremely careful in trying to spot the next 80 week low. In other words, there is a good chance that it will come later then we expect. As will the coming 4.5 and 9 year cycle lows.
It is great to see you here.
cheers,
john
hi bubbleboy,
Based on the cycles I follow, I am looking for a 7/8 week low in July, then a 15 week cycle low in August. August is likely to be the better buy. Not many posting Hurst cycles on gold so I hope to see you here often.
GL/GT.
cheers,
john
P.S. I'll have to get back to you on the larger cycles and the long term view. We're off to the UK for a couple of weeks.
hi slinky,
It may take all summer before the market rolls into the next 20 week cycle low. I'm not sure what we just got here late May early June (ie. early 80 week cycle low?). But I remind myself that a 4.5 and 9 year low is due in 2012. So the strength of any 80 week rally will likely be fairly weak (ie. relative to the one out of the March 2009 low). The larger question is just where this will start, and has it already begun.
I think Sept. will be the easier entry and likely target for a 80 week low in time for a rally into year end. Note the presidential cycle in play this year.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/presidential_cycle_shows_april_top/
I'll catch up with you later this summer.
cheers,
john
hi bubbleboy,
I've taken some trading positions off in the precious metals sector. Will hold a core through to at least October. August will be the wildcard and not sure how we get through the next 15 week cycle. But a low late summer should setup for another cycle buy. Will be away a lot this summer. GL/GT.
cheers,
john
hi bubbleboy,
I follow 7/8, 14/15, and 56/58 week cycles for gold and the HUI. Then a 27 and 54 month cycle. All the cycles I follow tend toward a 2:1 ratio. These cycles do not agree with Hurst's nominal cycle periods for the stock market.
My gold comments today (see thread) . Please keep posting.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=120842&pid=529878&mode=threaded&start=#entry529878
cheers,
john
hi Chris,
I find it noteworthy that /ES has not been able to take out its downtrendline (VTL) from the April high. It traded up there to the tick, but no better this morning. Now what? A break upward should bring in lots of volume.
I see breadth indicators trying to turn but no conviction just yet.
SPX 1065 is key on this Gann chart.
cheers,
john
Took trading profits on short term longs here. A 3/4 day cycle low is due either Friday or Monday and will look to see where things are for new longs.
cheers,
john
hi trucircle435,
I'm looking for the same. My Gann charts suggest getting brave if price backs down into the 1000-1020 level. I see the ending diagonal possibility as well (falling wedge pattern). The initial leg of any rally could be over by the end of June though.
Please keep posting.
cheers,
john
hi Chris,
Yes that was the 3/4 day cycle low. Lower targets have now opened up based on my Gann stuff. A test of $SPX 1000-1020 is very likely now this week.
cheers,
john
hi BT,
Nothing has changed since my last postings on Friday.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=50904199
Your scenario looks doable and I will be looking for the buy in the next 3/4 day cycle low (ie. June 10 +/-). Based on the daily Gann chart I keep, a break of SPX 1060 yields the next Gann fan near the 1000 level. I can't predict the break, but I can wait it out.
SPX 1060 is likely to be tested short term, but may give by mid-week. Today should be a 3/4 day Hurst cycle low.
cheers,
john
hi BT,
Nothing has changed since my last postings on Friday.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=50904199
Your scenario looks doable and I will be looking for the buy in the next 3/4 day cycle low (ie. June 10 +/-).
Based on the daily Gann chart I keep, a break of SPX 1060 yields the next Gann fan near the 1000 level. I can't predict the break, but I can wait it out.
SPX 1060 is likely to be tested short term, but may give by mid-week. Today should be a 3/4 day Hurst cycle low.
cheers,
john
hi chris,
I see a flat trend based on the price pattern off the May 25th low. So I agree with your take. But as you know, when larger cycles are involved, things can get a bit tricky.
It's great to be able to share thoughts with other Hurst minded folks here.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=50904199
cheers,
john
hi slinky,
I guess resistance at SPX 1106 was very real. It will take another downward test before we can expect a successful run though that level in the future. The status of the larger cycles is still in question because this 2.5 week cycle looks like it has now topped out. The 1.25 week VTL was broken on this punch down this morning.
I think we now have to look for the next 2.5 week low and target that for a bottom and new longs. It could well be a higher bottom, but I think I'll just have to wait and see. June 10th+/- is what I have in mind and still lines up with my original thinking.
cheers,
john
hi slinky,
I'm not sure of the upside potential for the next few days so I am not chasing longs. The employment report will be important Friday. Larger cycles are always a tough read into big cycle lows.
The real question is what do we get out of this 18 month cycle low, which if correct is ridiculous at 15 months in length.
A break near $SPX 1110 would confirm the 2.5 week low is in.
cheers,
john
P.S. mokew the high for this current 2.5 week cycle can come at anytime (this 2.5 week cycle started on May 25th).
hi BT,
I see heavy overhead resistance here for the $SPX at 1106 (per your Andrew's Pitchfork tine as well) then 1116. So rather than add longs here I'll wait now for the next 6-7 TD low or the 2.5 week low per Hurst. The 6:1 Gann fan should provide support in the coming week.
Keep posting those charts.
cheers,
john
6-7 day low came in today as projected ...
Now we have to see the status of the larger cycles.
cheers,
john
hi Den,
The 6-7 TD low is likely today or tomorrow June 2 (count ~10 calendar days and there's the holiday yesterday to be included) from last week's low. That's based on my ST count on an 18 month cycle analysis. That is, I'm going strictly based on the short cycles here since the March 2009 low with this analysis.
I'm not sure what it leads to, but I don't think the larger cycles have bottomed yet. We don't have VTL breaks for anything yet other than the 3-4 day (TD) cycle. Also the 1.25 and 2.5 week VTLs are up at big resistance near 1100-1120, which may prove too much to overcome short term and are unlikely to provide any near term signals (ie. upward breaks). So I will wait to see where we are into the June 10th date, which may coincide with the next 2.5 week low.
I'd rather see a better test of the $SPX 1000 level to be sure an 18 week low has arrived and attempt a swing low buy. A good rally is playable out of there but I will sell it within 8 weeks if it works.
You know there is an old Gann axiom that goes as follows. In a downtrend, bear rallies typically only last 3-4 days, or sometimes up to 6-7 days.
So when I compare that to Hurst, it basically says that if a market can't rally beyond 3-4 days, then the 6-7 day cycle is topping out and the larger cycles have not bottomed. And the converse can be applied as well.
cheers,
john
P.S. Go Hawks Go!
I posted Bill's last comment on May 14th. The $SPX opened down at the open (1158) and never looked back. The low this week ... $SPX 1040. Nice work Bill.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=50192413
Have a nice weekend.
cheers,
john
My friend Bill ...
http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/234/1/May-28-2010-CNBC-SquawkBox-Europe/Page1.html
A great mind.
cheers,
john
hi BT,
With this volatility in May it is a bit of guess work. But I saw some sentiment numbers on Tuesday that were off the charts.
I don't think we are out of the woods yet. If the 80 week low has already arrived, then the current 20 week cycle would have come up extremely short again, which I treat with caution.
There are a ton of astro turn dates coming in June and we are trading just below resistance on the $SPX (1106 - 1116). So if we did see a bottom this week (and possibly the 80 week low forming), I'd look to buy the 6-7 day low next week and see where we are. We will likely see a 3/4 day low today.
What I'd really like to see is another test or a double bottom of sorts into mid June. That would get me really bullish.
Have a great Memorial Day weekend.
cheers,
john
TREND1,
The Hurst course devotes a full chapter and many references to dealing with shorting the market. The classic strategy is to look for "edge-band" shorting opportunities. Picking tops is not recommended, but take profit signals on longs would typically be done with trendline (VTL) breaks or short duration FLD breaks.
Interpreting where individual waves are in their respective cycles is ultimately the key to getting a handle on when a market is likely to top out. So as Doc had been musing last month, once we had progressed well along into the final 20 week cycle within an 80 week cycle (off the March 2009 low), you know there is downside pressure developing in the market. The bigger challenge for Hursties has been the status of the larger 4.5 and 9 year cycles and their influence on price. This 80 week cycle topped out very late IMO.
Do yourself a favor. Read the course one day. It will become very clear how cyclic action works or at least how it is interpreted in the Hurst world. You're not going to pick tops or bottoms to the day, but you get a much better understanding of what is going on.
Hope that helps.
cheers,
john
hi TREND1,
I agree, nothing confirming a tradeable low as of yet. Needed an SPX close above 1090 to trigger an initial signal. It will take more time to break above the 1.25 week VTL. Internals need to improve.
The 40 week cycle target of ~1050 has been met. The 80 week (18 month) FLD is coming into play. It should provide support at some point for a swing low.
Based on this phasing (extension of Airedale's), the 4.5 and 9 year lows are still due in 2011/2012.
cheers,
john
hi BT,
If today was the print low, and I think it is, we should retest the highs this summer. That's the way I am playing it. Added some longs yesterday and this morning. I'm not all in, but will add again if we get confirmation next week.
Then we'll go down again later this year to test this level.
GL
cheers,
john
hi Lexus,
The market stepped on a banana peel today. I didn't think we'd get to my original target of 1050, but that now looks like a shoe-in. The problem is will it hold? Each day I get lower projections for the $SPX.
I follow Person's pivots and this week the /ES pivot lies at 1144. At the moment /ES is 79 points below, having sliced through S2 at 1090. We haven't seen weekly bars like this since 2007/2008.
I expect a sharp rally from here to retest the 1200 level in June. But the 1050 level needs to hold.
cheers,
john
hi Den,
I guess we can conclude that May 20th will not be a top or a high, now let's see if we get a turn in the next couple of days.
I gotta think some short covering shows up very soon.
cheers,
john
Euro Hurst Cycles, 4.5 and 9 year Cycle Low dead ahead?
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=119750
cheers,
john
The 4.5 and 9 year cycle lows are due for the Euro/USD anytime now.
cheers,
john
hi slinky,
I agree that an 80 week low is close. What confounds me is how short the cycles are coming in and if this in fact is an 80 week low, it will be very inflationary.
The gold sector finally corrected and I have been waiting patiently to add to positions. I have been buying ETFs, stocks etc, with the HUI near 445. Will add tomorrow again if given lower prices.
cheers,
john
BT,
These 30 point daily swings are getting pretty interesting. The 50% bear (2007-2009) retrace is about 1116 on ES. That is the battle ground and my thinking is to buy as we keep testing that level. The buys on May 6/7 were good with that in mind. I bought a little of the SPX via ETFs at today's lows. I will add daily for the rest of the week. The idea is to sell a June high if we get a good pop. I do not want to see 1075 taken out anytime soon for that to work.
P.S. Merriman turn comes May 20th. It doesn't look like it is going to be a high.
cheers,
john
den,
TBD. For now oil is still on track.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=119466&st=0&p=522971entry522971
cheers,
john
RCKS,
I agree with McLaren's volatility theme for this summer, but I'm not sure about when and how, or even if we retest the lows. For now I'll just focus on an 18 month Hurst low and see where things go from there.
There are just too many possibilities from here. I don't really go for making predictions because it locks you into a mindset. I'd rather trade/invest with what I "see".
cheers,
john