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As 2014 is fast approaching; I am encouraged that the board sentiment is hitting all time lows here. Specifically, I always thought that their was too much bullish optimism (from the Retail side); but I believe this sentiment (as a contrarion indicator)is becoming very attractive to buy the stock.
Also, I believe this company has way too many significant connections and underlying momentum as it wont take too much longer before these guys will have a major hit and success in one lead indication within their portfolio.
Tax loss selling is going to put a damper on some of the upside potential near term; but the stock has begun to track upward once again. Our biggest enemy is lack of cash; I strongly believe this major issue will be addressed over the next 1-3 months (robust grant funding, JV partnership or some major strategic alliance is on the way).
Lastly, I have been adding over the last 2 weeks and will be increasing my position significantly in December. Its already been a long and painful journey; but when things turn here.....many are going to be caught way off guard. Book it!!!!!
I would agree that Gerald is under qualified to be the CEO. He is a great guy; but it takes a Pharmaceutical background and prior experience as a CEO (to be highly effective and gain respect from the Street).
My recommendation: Gerald retains the Chairman's role and hires a very experienced CEO (with a Pharmaceutical background) to be the president. Its a win/win situation for shareholders!
In regards to tax loss selling; it starts in October (not December ...related to the Biotech industry). In regards to MANF; did you ever do any research on "Orphan Drug" strategy?
You can start by looking up more about Amgen (and its history overall). Orphan strategy - will accelerate the timelines...and open up the possibility of getting potential Pharma. drug partnering as well.
Dr. Lowe is an excellent addition to the team. However, they still wont talk about the second set of Orphan data). I would still like to see Gerald transfer Executive responsibility to someone with Dr. Lowes' background to run the entire company (the Pharmaceutical world is very complex and he just doesn't have the background and expertise to run this type of organization).
So Gerald could retain the Chairman title and remain in full control; but let a seasoned Pharma. executive run the show (I am extremely confident the PPS would rally on this type of news).
Gerald means well and shares good information. However, I would strongly prefer updates on the pipeline and portfolio; instead of always talking about how big the market size is...which really doesn't matter right now.
They will just issue more equity financing (if need be). If you are that freaked out about the investment; there are millions of other companies out there. True?
Good luck trading any bio. based solely on technical analysis (it will never work).
Very accurate assessment and good choice of words.
It amazes me how retail shareholders are finding very important and meaningful news; but our PR dept. is asleep at the wheel. If the information can be found publicly; then the company Mgt. should update the marketplace.
More importantly, we waste away down here at $.05 (and have made no significant price movement upward for months); I don't understand why Mgt. can be more forthcoming on developments.
Excellent DD barcode. This find is very meaningful; it looks like Diabetes is going to be a potential huge opportunity going forward (assuming MANF works effectively). Also, I like the global reach and sponsorship from Ono Pharmacuetical....every day gets more interesting around here (minus one poster...wont name anybody's name).
Diagnostic companies will play an ever more important role going forward; and Obamacare could help these types of companies as well.
See article below:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/10/27/3-diagnostic-stocks-that-may-see-sales-soar-becaus.aspx
Risk:
I am a believer as well; when a stock bases or is driven down by MM's...it will certainly help flush out the weak hands (and hopefully the flippers).
Did you notice how the stock catapulted from $.03 to $.09 with little resistance (when it based at $.03 for 5-6 months)? The forces will take the PPS up when they are ready...perhaps some don't believe it (but I do).
Good to see some other Bio coverage from some independent sources. Also, I agree with your assertion on the base support level before news...$.05 area is not the best launching pad.
For now, I think it will grind higher...but the potential to gap up higher (at anytime) can exist.. (the MANF Diabetes DD around here is fabulous).
Great article on LymPro!!! Its cool to see AMBS get some love (from Seeking Alpha). LymPro appears (and will be) a very serious force in the Alzheimers market space going forward (and will only get more attention as more and more become knowledgeable regarding its capabilities).
Specifically, the article confirms too...that BD is doing the future Phase 2 testing; however, I don't recall that Geralds PR ever confirmed who was doing the next set of testing (which was a very big miss on his part).
In terms of Wall Street; companies need to spin the PR to capture an audience properly. The Zacks (Jason Napodano) and Seeking Alpha folks did a nice job to bring further detail and clarification to marketplace (regarding Lympro and the potential of MANF).
Lastly, I really do think the PPS is a strong buy down here at $.05; and that assumes that the investor/investors who did the most recent financing tranche have unloaded majority of their shares (which they would have still booked a very nice profit).
GLTA!!!
From a retail shareholder standpoint; I wish things happened that way. But what is the incentive for the institutional base to accumulate the stock once Uplisted.
The smart money will buy if they know there are major catalysts pending; so I believe the stock will hit the $.20-$.40 area and most likely a R/S will happen....most institutions cant buy until we are Uplisted (so the big news will follow afterwards).
Just one persons speculative opinion!!!
I am going with #3 - Novartis....am speculating that a very significant cross licensing deal will occur by mid 2014 (right after we uplist to Nasdaq...this news will be the reality of what will reward our new institutional base and move the PPS much higher).
I am wondering if I am the only one who has noticed a refreshing change on this board today. Does anybody else notice the same thing?
I can read through everybody's thoughts, opinions, suggestions, speculation and due diligence without reading one persons counter arguments and constructive feedback (over and over, and over and over).
I hope this stays this way!!!!
Hopefully, the best is yet to come. I highly doubt that the latest tranche financing deals were arranged without knowing they werent achievable.
The biggest problem around here is "Patience" (and of course...DILUTION). At some point; one of them will have to give and win out (I am still confident that patience will prevail).
Sir Petro:
I am rooting for Novartis; a large cross licensing deal aligned to several platform areas would be really cool (including the Parkinson Lid Phase 2 compound).
AMBS has licensed a Phase 2 drug candidate for L-Dopa-Induced Dyskinesia Parkinson’s Disease from an undisclosed third party (that news was announced several months ago). More importantly, I am a shareholder of AVNR (this AM; they announced trial news for their respective Phase 2 drug for Levodopa Induced Dyskinesia related to Parkinsons). See link below!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/avanir-pharmaceuticals-announces-enrollment-first-123000825.html
In the process of elimination; we can rule Avanir out as being the mystery company (since AMBS was not mentioned or has not issued news this AM).
Item 8.01 Other Events.
On May 22, 2013, the Company entered into a letter of intent to in-license a Phase 2 drug candidate in L-Dopa-Induced Dyskinesia Parkinson’s Disease from an undisclosed third party. Once licensed the Company intends to initiate a Phase 2b clinical trial within 12 months.
Great post gipper:
Its a refreshing and healthy break to hear a practical no nonsense approach and opinion as to what's truly affecting our PPS. Glad to hear your continued enthusiasm and dedication.
Good luck...you may have to debate (your response) word for word with the board critic.
Me 4 as well!
Sir Petro:
I believe you have repeatedly answered your own question (in regards to fair value). The company and mgt. have done a poor job with handling the recent financing/funding...and what confidence can you have that there wont be any more diluton (until LymPro is commercialized)?
Goal for tomorrow:
Reclaim 200 day moving avg. at $.06 (and hold); and then have the 50 day mvg. avg. come up above the 200 day mvg. avg. for a perfect = Golden Cross formation (will day another week or two).
Keep the news machine going...this is becoming fun again.
Sir Petro:
Very nice outline and post; I think this Phase 11b LID compound is really flying under the radar. You could potentially see this program get expedited at anytime (now that their is more cash in the coffers).
BTW: I am an Avanir shareholder ...an incredible pipeline but many forces are behind that one...a dangerous stock indeed.
Great post! The PR is still lacking the meat...only the potatoes. Its positive; but the big pop in the PPS wont happen based on what was released.
BTW: What is the future relationship with BD; that's what I was mostly focused on..."Unknown"?
Simple deductive reasoning would have suggested that once the markets stabilized; Gerald would release LymPro news.
Please stop giving yourself credit as someone in the know...because you don't know any different than anybody else.
One clarification:
The R&R Sensitivity and Specificity %'s stated on the slides was AD subjects compared to AD patients with Parkinson disease.
Risk/BH:
It looks like the Rodman and Renshaw presentation (on page 12) is referring to a response to Parkinson related patients only.
92% Sensitivity
91% Specificity
I don't think these are the actual stats. for the product overall.
Smdjls:
You are INCORRECT!!! I NEVER said TA doesn't matter; I said TA should be one variable in a decision making process. Stop disseminating information that is not factual.
To All: Please do your own DD and don't follow those who don't any positive track record or have not been posting here awhile.
YW! I think a R/S is inevitable now....and I know many think its eventually a good idea; but I assure you unless you are holding a ton of shares...better do the math to see what you will end up with if its one very significant R/S (a 100 to 1, 50 to 1, 40 to 1) will harm most shareholders.
Thank you for the email addresses; a phone conversation would be a great start as well. For the record; I think everything will work out; but I feel Management has regressed lately.
The funding strategy is pathetic; I cant believe their aren't more attractive ways to raise money. Also, I think its ridiculous that Shareholders cant vote on these issues anyway.
Personally, I have never invested $$$ in a stock with this many shares outstanding and think this is a dangerous phase within the company's history/future. If Gerald accelerates a R/S; many are going to end up with unrecoverable losses.....as the investors will end up with so few shares to make any money going forward.
However, I remain extremely excited about LymPro and MANF (as the Science and upside future is astonishing). Key questions:
1) MANF Orphan strategy will be going forward? When can we expect an IND (or many of them)? What is the delays with the second set of data (other than the Non disclosure agreement with the 3rd party institution)?
2) LymPro validation study data? Did Gerald ever promise he would literally release the BD validated results? When will revenue start and how much for 2014 and 2015?
3) Whats going on with NuroPro?
4) Will MJF foundation ever commit funding for any projects?
5) If Gerald raised money because of his concerns in Washington; if the debt ceiling and budget issues are fixed...why not create better deals (more attractive financing terms and less dilution) for the shareholders.
6)TBI - the relationship with Banyan Markers has been established for awhile? Where do things stand? Will the NFL send and grant money our way?
7) What are the Up listing plans; can we avoid a R/S (Gerald said it wasn't in his plans but that he was open minded).
8)Parkinson LID Phase 2b study (In licensing deal); why don't they accelerate that program since the money will be there to do so?
9)MANF - Retinitis Pigmentosa is the lead program; so what exactly does that mean going forward?
So many unanswered questions that will affect our PPS (in one way or another). Only time will tell!!!
Without a Revenue stream it would have been very difficult to avoid dilution. But why dilute to this extreme; he should have taken a much smaller amount now; release positive news and did a deal at a much higher price down the road. Also, I don't understand why they cant just get one Venture capital firm to do the financing...versus having tom, dick and harry to participate (too many hands in the cookie jar).
I would cancel the warrants portion of the financing deal immediately; shareholders wont approve of this deal (if they had an opportunity to vote on it).
The non dilutive money raising method would be based on the latest announcement of hiring Mr. Grimes (to raise $$ via grants); now that was a good decision!
JPetro (or Sir Petro):
In taking and copying the mentioned statement from Geralds recent blog (see below); I believe the writing is on the wall regarding a future upgrade ..regarding the financial controls mechanism (perhaps Gerald has already moved the ball forward with replacing the CFO).
Blog Quote:
"The Board of Directors and Management are now working closely together to improve the corporate governance at the Board and management levels, as well as the financial controls within the Company, in order to meet the requirements of a national stock exchange listing. We expect to take concrete steps in this direction in the coming months that will be communicated to the marketplace".
Yes! Except AMBS will get up to $8mm (higher than the $5mm stated) ...if over $.10 cents for 20 consecutive days. And you are correct in thinking that this Mgt. team have every intention/motivation to get us there.
Is it true AMBS must be over .10 cents for 20 consecutive days before we can get the extra 5 million from the financing deal? With shorts doing their "business" all over the stock on a daily basis, to accomplish that...AMBS would need to get this thing well above .10 cents, maybe up near .20 cents to be sure it stays above .10 cents for 20 consecutive days. With so much riding on that 5 million for advancing our pipeline, you would think Gerald as some pretty potent catalysts to assure our pps stays where it needs to in the coming weeks.
Share buyback would be nice; but it wont happen as every dollar will be plowed back into the MANF development programs (as you already know).
As you said too: we are reaching a critical tipping point (as I always thought Q3/Q4 will be a possible a very defining moment in the company's history and future success).
Finally, I think their is something both eerie but yet powerful about all the silence lately (the Insider and constituents have loaded the boat); and they will certainly more than likely expect a nice return for their investment. Moreover, I always believe if you have the capability to connect the dots (the runway has been set for takeoff).
My friend:
It is a frustrating time to be a shareholder here. However, I still hold a lot of shares and haven't sold any...in fact I have continued to accumulate for months now.
Specifically, I don't like that their has been so much confusion (and so much dilution) with the financing deals. It should not be this complicated (for many) to understand either...in terms of what's really going on here.
Most importantly, the same potential exists (as always) and drug/product portfolio has amazing potential. Overall, I am a huge fan and supporter since fundamentally everything seems to be moving forward. Lastly, this process is a journey with many chapters in it still waiting to unfold; and I am expecting some surprises....so it just requires continued patience.
Its really a relief here that so many know the exact PR dates, know the exact LymPro product pricing, know the exact marketing LymPro marketing strategy and are capable of predicting exactly where are PPS will go on any given day, week or month.
Certainly, its very entertaining to say the least. Please do your OWN due diligence when investing in any stock.
If you think small bio's only trade only on a technical basis; you have a lot of research and due diligence needed to get up to speed. Bio's tend to be news driven stocks; TA is useful as one parameter; but I would not count on it as a sole purpose to invest, buy or sell one way or another.