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SPX daily chart with comments.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[w,a]daclyyay[d20020301,20020705][pb50!b200][vc60...
Ahem! Quite thrilled to see you.
I would like to see that too.
but I don't really like holyfield.
yes, but I want them all fulfilled...RIGHT NOW!!!
dammit
I need a tape of the Kostya Tszyu fight
This is one of those fights that I really don't give a damn. I don't like Lewis and I think that Tyson is a criminal. Ambivalence is the strongest emotion I can conjure up.
I guess I should go to the Sweet Science thread about now<g>
Here is my prediction: Tyson is going to get so frustrated by Lewis that he ends up getting DQ'd. This will be Tyson's last fight as he will be banned after his performance.
I know, I know, not much of a stretch, but.....
tough call. I think that Lewis will keep tyson outside and frustrate Tyson enough that he screws up. I think that Lewis is going to do his best to humiliate Tyson.
I think that I would rather drink gasoline.
ahhhh, that....I haven't been posting on the SI thread either. I haven't seen a fight in quite some time. I am feeling a bit deprived.
are you suggesting that some posts need to be deleted?
Too late, I already outed you Mr. Clinton
Hell no, it ain't safe for you here. You know how there are points for dissing you in the wag? Well, there are double points on Ihub.
BPCOMP getting very close to turning down. Now at 49. It
will take a significant rally to raise the BP level, IMO.
Any rally from here is likely to be a perfect setup for
more distribution and will make generating sell signals
easier.
http://www.stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=$bpCOMPQ&N=A&T=on
COMP 20pt chart. I am thinking that we bounce to between 1650 and 1680 here.
http://www.stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=$COMPQ&Y=U&B=20&N=A&T=on
2,100.00 / + / + / / 2,100.00
2,080.00 / + / X + / / 2,080.00
2,060.00 / + X / X O + / / 2,060.00
2,040.00 / + X O / X O + / / 2,040.00
2,020.00 / X O / X O + / / 2,020.00
2,000.00 / X O X X/ X O + / / 2,000.00
1,980.00 / X O X O X/O X O + / / 1,980.00
1,960.00 / X C O X O X/O X O + + / / 1,960.00
1,940.00 / X O X O O X/1 O X 2 X + / / 1,940.00
1,920.00 / X X X O X O / O X O X O X O + / / 1,920.00
1,900.00 / X O X O X O / O X O X O X O + / / 1,900.00
1,880.00 / X O X X O X / O O X O X O / / 1,880.00
1,860.00 / X O X O X O / + O O X X O / / 1,860.00
1,840.00 / X O X O X / + O X O X O /High/ 1,840.00
1,820.00 / O X O X / + O X O X O X / / 1,820.00
1,800.00 / O X O /+ O X O 3 O X O / / 1,800.00
1,780.00 / O X X +/ O O X 4 X O / / 1,780.00
1,760.00 / O X O X + / O X O X O / / 1,760.00
1,740.00 / O X X O B + / O X O O / / 1,740.00
1,720.00 / 9 X O X O X + / O X O / / 1,720.00
1,700.00 / O X O X O X + / O O /Avg / 1,700.00
1,680.00 / O X O X O X + / O / / 1,680.00
1,660.00 / O X O X O + / O / / 1,660.00
1,640.00 / O X X O + / O / / 1,640.00
1,620.00 / O X O X X + / 5 / / 1,620.00
1,600.00 / O X O X O X + / O / / 1,600.00
1,580.00 / O X O X O X + / O / / 1,580.00
1,560.00 / O X O O + / /Low / 1,560.00<
1,540.00 / O X + / / / 1,540.00
1,520.00 / O X X + / / / 1,520.00
1,500.00 / O X O A + / / / 1,500.00
1,480.00 / O X O X + / / / 1,480.00
1,460.00 / O X O X + / / / 1,460.00
1,440.00 / O X O X + / / / 1,440.00
1,420.00 / O X O + / / / 1,420.00
1,400.00 / O + / / / 1,400.00
Market thoughts
I believe that we are going to have a little rally here. I also believe that this is a shortable rally. We have not had a capitulation yet and a downtrend like this doesn't end with a whimper.
I believe that the attacks of 9/11 interrupted the bottoming process. We were on our way down, but the attacks drove the stockmarket down too far before the market had enough time for real mending. I believe that the next big selloff is "the" bottom. But I also think that it is going to happen sooner rather than later.
COMP daily with notes.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]daclyyay[d20010307,20020507][pb50!b200][vc...
are you going to divulge?
Welcome to the thread.
Further PS. Isn't this much nicer than calling each other names?
yes it is, but sometimes, some things just need to be said.
tough question.....not really sure of what your trading or investing style is. I believe that there is a tremendous amount of risk in this market, despite what everyone is assuring us is miraculous recovery. There are good arguments for an ongoing rally and there are good arguments for another crash. I am in the "another crash" group. But, I think that will be the one to be bought.
I posted this a couple of weeks ago on SI (subsequently archived on John Pitera's site).
http://www.thecapitalmarkets.com/JXM/01_2002_FebruaryJanuary/022802_ViewsFromJorjtopia.htm
My goals in that post are still the same for when I would become a bull again.
Phil,
I think that you misunderstood what I said. I was referring to the position that I took on 9/21 based on an ultra high VIX reading. I started selling long positions and selling covered calls in December of last year and started going aggressively short in January (most of my trades are documented in real time on SI). Yesterday, I was net long for about an hour, now I am net short with about 50% cash.
Ola,
mr.mark is truly one of the good guys. He is much better at flying above the fray than I am.
Bedtime for bonzo
Cheers and best.
JXM
My further thoughts about the inverse head and shoulders that people are seeing in the nasdaq composite using the Nikkei as a comparison.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$nikk,uu[w,a]wacayyay[d19910310,20020310][pb50!b200][vc6...
No, I am not a female type. I assumed that you were.
I would love to here how you came to the conclusion that I was aligned with joemoney. Please explain what popped into your mind that convinced you of such.
Anybody that would make a threat on the internet is clearly a coward. That doesn't mean that there was no attempt to intimidate.
And I didn't lose any sleep whatsoever. If somebody takes a shot at me, I am not the type to go tit for tat. And my history with BoP goes back over a year now and he has earned every bit of my enmity.
not sure what you are getting at here. But I do grok the difference between an open threat and an attempt at intimidation.
Did you grok what is truly an alarming post like...gun threats and open plots?
BTW, Since you brought up "grok", you may know where my name comes from. JXM is short for Jorj X. McKie. A character in a couple of science fiction novels by Frank Herbert.
Ola dear,
Why the need for profanity?
That was your beef with me wasn't it?
Weekly COMP chart with bullish percentages marked at significant highs and lows.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[e,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]....
BPCOMP has moved up to 54, just two points off of a multiyear high. At the same time we are seeing a lower high put in place....distribution folks.
Where do you see the market going daringdon? I am trading mostly on the darkside (short emlx and nvda, but also long MU right now).
Why I am not a bull
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[h,a]waclyyay[d20000108,20020308][pb50!b200][vc....
Weekly COMP with comments.
Your turn
Try writing it in English the next time.
My perspective is that he has proven that he is pretty much a psycho. It appeared to be a legitimate threat to me.
Was he going to harm her? No, like he said, it was his "associates".
As far as not liking him. He libeled me here on your little site. Not harmless little comments, but truly damaging stuff. He deserves every bit of my enmity. But that shouldn't matter to you. What should matter is that he threatened one of your members. It is disgusting to me that this is acceptable to you.
ola dear, it is clear that your ability to judge character is a bit diminished.
If you want to start something with me, post something to the parking lot and I will oblige you.
That's some pretty good rationalizing
If you are going to use the Parking Lot as justification for physical threats, you have lost sight of very basic values. Can I post someone's personal information as long as it is on the parking lot?
SI works again
so which camp are you in UF?
What offends you more?
-Profanity
-Veiled threats of physical violence
I think that it is a vast conspiracy of Zeev followers to sabotage the PTT standing. If you go to SI's homepage, you will see that the PTT thread is numero uno today.
It was an accident, I swear.
No, joemoney and I are not close associates.
ola,
if you can't see that that post was a blatant attempt at intimidation, I believe that you are not reading it closely enough.
BoP has libeled me and he has made veiled threats to another member. Not somebody who I would want roaming free on my message board.
JXM
The VIX is the Implied Volatility of a number of OEX options. The site can probably explain it better than I, but I will give you my particular interpretation (mileage may vary).
Because the market has a bullish bias (an example would be that there are more people who go long stocks than there are those who go short), when there is complacency, there is less demand for put options. With less demand, those who are selling options can demand less premium on those options. So generally speaking when there is a low VIX it is a good time to buy options because the premiums are low. But when there is fear in the market, there is a lot of demand for puts and there the premiums go up. This would be a good time to sell puts so that you can get the extra premium.
When everyone has given up, there is rarely complacency. There is usually desperation and fear. The link can explain it far better than I.
Does that mean that you are more offended by profanity than veiled threats of physical violence?
Please let me know why you did not take action against this nice young gentleman.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=240112
Tell me why you can get hot about me using profanity when you completely ignore something like that.
Hello Ergo sum,
thanks, flattery will get you everywhere
I use the vix as one of my complacency indicators. There are people that are more schooled on the intricacies of the indicator. My start with it was strictly through the charts. For a detailed description on the vix, I would recommend stockcharts.com
http://stockcharts.com/education/What/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_VIX.html
I don't want to avoid the question, but want to give you that background first.
So, how do I use it....I don't use it alone and I don't expect the market to swing wildly in reaction to various vix levels. I also don't really care about absolute values. I am more concerned with relative values. the current levels have been where the general market has launched a significant correction for the past 4 to 5 years. It doesn't mean that one is imminent though, it just tells me that I need to be ultra cautious if I am going to play on the bullish side. So, low levels on the VIX generally indicate complacency in the market and complacency is generally found at the tops of the market. Conversely, high vix readings generally indicate fear which is usually associated with a bottom.
You can see on this chart that there is a strong correlation between the VIX and strong moves in the market. Look at March 2000. The readings are down around 20. Then in April it shoots up over 40. I consider the mid 40s to be a good bottom that should be bought. In Sept 2001, we went up over 55. Lots of fear. I can show you posts where I stated that I was buying heavily on margin.
I'll try to throw together a COMP chart that shows the VIX readings at the major tops and bottoms.
BTW, there is an equivalent for the NDX called the VXN. But I pretty much just stick with the VIX for the entire market.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VIX,uu[h,a]daclyyay[d20000114,20020314][pb50!b200][vc60...