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Is this gap down tomorrow an opportunity to buy (flush out the weak hands), or is the beggining of a much bigger drop?
I suspect is flushing out the weak hands, however, I suspect we go up and down a lot into wednesday before it is time to buy and hold more than a few hours, or overnight. So playing both the short and long side on rallies of more than 50pts, or drops of more than 50 will probably work well into wednesday.
at least that is my plan. still waiting for slv under 16 to buy.
very likely, if we gap up monday, then could be down rest of the week. Same for gap down providing rally.
Break and close of 2950 would be serious trouble for bulls. Close over 3100 is very bullish.
quite a week!
Am still convinced we need one more run at 3250, or even higher, to complete the rally from March.
I expect a bigger selloff starting in August or sept. A big drop in either could set up the next big leg up.
Am not posting as often as I like, but I did buy again friday qld on the second big drop to below 3000.
NOrmally, we get at least one more up day, even if the bears are in control again.
Weekly LEI improved by 3% again this week, has been doing that consistantly since it bottomed out at -42% in late april.
NOrmally, market goes up when Weekly lei turns up too, but market went up for a month while the lei kept falling, probably due to massive fed injection of liquidity at the time.
I suspect up into close today, not sure if we test 3000 again next week, but is very likely
just put 30% of my money into nvda at 353.
Could be double bottom, will buy qld if we drop some more later
sold qld at open,am flat for now, plan to short at 3100, but at 3000 up to end of next week. Think 3150 and 2950 possible next week, maybe both!
Bounce off massive selling climax today was an easy trade. Next move much less easy to predict
Trin gave a major sell Monday, is saying two day rally coming now.
Vix is at a sell again, but a rally Friday is still likely, IMHO
Market was so overbought, will take another week or so to get oversold enough to mount another rally that can last more than a couple days.
100dma at 2959 major support tomorrow, 21dma at 3030 is resistance. 200dma is at 3015, also resistance and support.
Normally, this move down would have taken a week or more, then another rally to 3230 before the bear bites.
Am only 30% long qld, and not holding for a big gain.
Massive selling climax today, market always higher within 2 days, but maybe not by much.
bought qld at 133 when spx hit 3000. Think we run up to 3050, or even 3100 tomorrow.
Excessive optimism takes time to disapate. So another run to 3200 is not out of the question this month.
A drop to between 2650 and 2730 later this year is very likely, but with the fed manipulating markets, who knows? My gut says economy does not grow at 5% next year, instead is negative or just up 1%, after more than a -6.5% year over year growth rate for GDP.
Remember, Fed and treasury insisted in the summer of 2008 the mortgage crises would not take down the general economy. They are too optimistic again, IMHO
Will buy more slv under 16, think long term, as in next couple years, only trade that is a sure thing is precious metals.
I prefer gold to abx, probably they are about equal.
of course, i cover and the market goes into free fall.
Massive selling climax, market will go up tomorrow, maybe only for a few hours though.
Waiting for spx 3000 to think about buying for more than a few hours.
I was too cautious trading slv and gold mining stocks.
I also had an order to buy 2000 sds yesterday, but pulled it,am too traumatized by how badly I timed this short.
This is all a slow process, look at the last financial crises. Dollar went up for a long time, then crashed. Then recovered.
In the long run we all die, and the dollar will keep losing its value. I agree,precious metals are the way to go, but I still believe in the top quality tech stocks,bought inteligently,will in the end make you the most money.
covered my 1000 spy at 310.05, lucky fill. At one point had a 12k loss, made $1000 instead.
Major sell signal, but this market has refused to go down, and I am tired of fighting the fed. Will probably buy nvda, twlo, zm if we drop to spx 3000 soon.
Bottom line: Hold positions when you are sure, even when they are going bad against you. I have done this too many times, got in too early. It ruins my confidence,and when that happens,best to rest up and be ready for the next clear signal.
With this market,there are great buy and sell signals at least every couple weeks. Buys are easier to spot than sell signals. And with the fed propping up markets,i will try my luck at buying instead of shorting for awhile.
Bulls make money,bears make money, pigs lose money
not sure if silver goes to $15, or $21 this year, or both!
Silver major buy at $15, very unlikely it falls that far. Think buying at $17 makes good sense, if it falls that far.
Have enough silver personally, no need to buy more.
Options showing massive euphoria, but that can go on for weeks before the market finally tops out.
Not sure how high we go, but a drop back to spx 3000 before the election is a sure thing, IMHO. so buying spy or qqq now is not smart, but as usual, some stocks will be a lot higher when that drop back to 3000 happens (could be this month,could be in oct)
Great charts, likely we drop soon to lower channel line, then rally big time.
Gap down in February to start the big decline back then, was at 3260
Last time the market had this powerful a rally, and got this overbought so quickly, was in March to june, 2009. The market corrected 10% down to the rising 200dma that time, and the rest was up, up, up.
Keep buying dips until at least 3400 on spx, crazy as it sounds.
At some point, this kind of straight up rally has a significant decline.
Last week,,i covered my short for a small gain at the open on a gap down monday. this week, shorting more at gap up on monday.
expect market to top out around noon monday, then down sideways rest of week. Not expecting more than 3 or maybe 4% drop on spx.
june calls on gold miners best bet right now. Am still too raw, after 25 years, from losing a fortune in options to play them ever again.
Sad but true, good post. Silver and gold are the only assets that for sure will do well. Great companies will of course outperform them, but if you want to safer investments, then precious metals are the way to go.
Sad but true, good post. Silver and gold are the only assets that for sure will do well. Great companies will of course outperform them, but if you want to safer investments, then precious metals are the way to go.
Sad that once again, the only choices we are given for president are not people I would want to be my leader.
Numbers being manipulated is nothing new. I suspected 3rd quarter GDP would be "fake news", surprised they are punching up the numbers already.
Weekly LEI has been rising since april 20th. It was dropping precipitously into that date. I suspect without fed, market would have fallen a lot further into the end of april, double bottom. That would actually been a lot better for everyone, but of course, fed only cares about the 1% of the 1$, or the 30,000 people in America that actually run the country
Have been wrong far too long to be considered relevent, IMHO. Pattern does suggest too far too fast, and normally would expect a pullback to 3000 on spx before th next rally to 3400.
This coming week, 3150 to 3220 is a given, more likely below 3150 than above 3220, but of course that kind of prediction has been completely wrong for months now.
Facts: CBOE equity numbers are very bearish for the market, and suggest a 5% or great correction within a month. Weekly sentiment is still suggesting higher prices, and until those numbers get too complacent, the rally should continue higher, with quick drops along the way.
My plan is to buy dips and hold, but am still heavily short, but will get out with heavy losses this week,and put short back on when spx is above 3220.
rally looks a lot like from march 6 to early june 2009, market then fell back to slowly rising 200dma, and then zoomed higher.
A correction back to spx 3000 in next couple weeks would be a buying opportunity.
Good predicting, congrats
Some indicators say go long precious metals at this level.
All this stimulus will eventually lead to much higher prices for silver and gold, short term moves should be ignored.
Bears got it all wrong, this rally had all the signs of internal strength, just a lot more volatile than most rallies.
blow off top coming, there will be bad economic news coming, but looks like the trend is solid up now.
Beyond stupid, I kept telling myself to not short for past month, and today I lost all the money I made in May.
3400 is a done deal now, maybe a lot higher before we top out.
Next week should be sideways down, maybe to 3100, more likely just to 3140.
Wall St was correct, economy doing a lot better than the rest of us thought.
Added 300 more spy short, at 311.9, in afterhours.
Pattern suggests fall to spx 3080, or even 3000 on spx tomorrow, Friday.
Of course, fed will do their best to prop up asset valuations for the large corporations, until they can't
no worry among options players indicates more downside friday. Holding short
In march 2000, the Nasdaq was selling at 180 times earnings, due to the explosive growth of internet stocks. CSCO was at 150 times earnings, at 82. It is now around 45 last time I looked, 20 years later, and it earns a lot more than it did when it was at 82.
If not for the fed, would expect 1400 by next march, as economy going down hard into that time frame.
The fed, however, has made it clear they will not allow any large market correction, which they can do, but at what point does the market ignore the money they keep pouring in, and focus instead on the economic reality?
2730 is a given later this year, when not if. Lower than that is possible, as the fed can not stop mini crash as it happens. They can come in the next day and erase the damage quickly.
My system said 3130, after we retested 3000 and kept going up. I,however, did not play the upside,as with stretched valuations, any drop can be swift and massive.
On the other hand, the fed will probably not allow a really big correction until after the election.
My system said 3130, after we retested 3000 and kept going up. I,however, did not play the upside,as with stretched valuations, any drop can be swift and massive.
On the other hand, the fed will probably not allow a really big correction until after the election.
Funny, spy went to my target of 313, but I jumped early, not smart.
Of course, had I not shorted at 312 the spy would have tumbled down hard instead of going to 313
Does look like liquidity based melt up. What bad news could hurt the melt up? Not even a china trade war? for sure not bad economic news.
Look at zoom. Down afterhours, up 5% today. Selling at insane valuations, unless you assume earnings growth will never slow down.
Have seen this all before, being short is probably really dumb, other than very short term. Will cover soon, and then go long when there is any selling climax day, as the fed will then come in and provide massive liquidity to ensure the selling does not continue.
short 500 spy at 312
have order to short spy at 312
School districts in CA are making major budget cuts (my wife just lost her job, as she was just hired last year), thanks to the FED giving tons of money to major corporations so they can continue to reward top executives and rich people how own the stock, and no money to states.
But who needs teachers and schools, when we can have more money for billionaires?
Market could run to 3150 before any correction bigger than 2%, but will start shorting at 3100.