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Thank you. Point taken!
You are most welcome.
As to your questions, those are unknowns because we have no idea what the contract specifies. One related question I have is whether Elite, with notice of termination, is contractually bound to the bitter end. I would have to think the language would allow them to step away before March - with proper notice - because, operationally, Elite needs to be putting its new distribution mechanism in place, as they could not simply "flip the switch" at contract's end without causing a lag in revenues.
This is a topic worthy of the November call.
Spot on, as the Brits would say...
Correct...
Funny you say that...I knew a really good technical analyst who told me the same thing. In fact, she (yes, she) said it was a fool's errand to do T/A once you knew of the manipulation. And, while I fully expect to be treated with disdain for these comments, I did do a dissertation with the requisite data analysis. So, there is that...
That's what the algorithm says...
LOLOLOL...all business views of the future are projections! As for an outsider, who does the valuation analysis for companies - outsiders.
I think the SOX 5% chance of a CRL is, at six years and two months, beyond its expiration date.
One thing I learned at the Fortune 50 is that, to continue to be responsible for a global function (as I was), there were decisions that had to be made and risks accepted. Not decisions, no risks, no job. I learned the lesson well enough to stick around and make some money, then leave on my own terms. PRICELESS!
So, what numbers did you arrive at in a DCF analysis of Elite?
Really? I have evidence of otherwise. Don't say produce it. I can, but will have to go back before the great pandemic and there are a number of posts arguing with me about my use of EVA, suggesting real professionals use DCF. Does that ring a bell?
About this..
Since I am always willing to increase shareholder knowledge, I have a DCF algorithm that can be used and I did. So, a little on a DCF...it requires some projections because, after all, the future is uncertain. However, there are certain mathematical assumptions that have to be made to do a DCF because we are trying to project the future...with this caveat...a DCF is used to determine, based on the calculations, what a company is valued at TODAY! As this notes...DCF is...
No it is not...
As business executives know (or should), hope is not a strategy. That Elite has clear strategic intent makes me confident that investors will, one day, benefit from holding onto their shares with a tight fist...if personal finances allow.
Oh no, let me see, the belief 6 (SIX)YEARS AGO that a priority review that the FDA says is a 95% chance of approval falls into the 5% category. Please, tell me who would not take those odds? Marriage is a 50/50 proposition and a second marriage less than that. M&A in business, irrespective of industry, fails (according to McKinsey) 70-90% of the time. New drug development that can cost one billion dollars fail in 90% of the cases, according to this...
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211383522000521
As for SOX failing, please confirm...Elite was not profitable at the time and had revenues < $7M annually, is that not right? Let me help...that is correct. Now tell me, what are Elite's revenues? Again, I can help...$32.2M for the last fiscal year and growing. Oh, and is it profitable? Why, yes it is! Does Elite not have a loan that enabled them to buy property and save millions of dollars by NOT moving? Why, yes it does!
How was that for counting?
As the late, great Keith Jackson would say..."Whoa, Nellie!"
I never said I admire Nasrat. I appreciate what his work has brought, but there are few people I admire and, sorry, he ain't one.
I like the analogy, but not the belief the game is lost. Elite has, indeed, been "piling up the yards" by increasing revenues 4X in three years, profitability, new assets (the building), a loan and "money in the bank." So, "game on" and Elite is in it to win it!
Here is the problem...
First, we have no idea of the cost, as it would be a line item likely rolled into G&A expense. Second, she helps organize the questions - and edits them - and she has been present on the call, at least a couple of times. Third, we shareholders do not want Nasrat doing the admin and, frankly, he does not have time. No Dianne, no calls! Fourth, she has been the gatekeeper when Elite made the transition from having questions live, which was a disaster. I laugh at the notion that not having questions live is somehow a diminution of the process. That a small company actually holds a Q call is notable. Not all publicly traded companies hold calls...Fact!
You do know that Dianne and the IR "department" are one and the same, and they are contract services, right? So, any influence is stunted.
Thank you...
Actually, I thank you for that correction. So, he chosen Charles? Going with his mother's lead. Given his upbringing, I suspect he wants to be seen as capable of making the hard call.
Well said, thank you.
About this...
You do realize that the ascending monarch is asked what name they want to be known as King/Queen. I remember reading it was a big deal when Elizabeth wanted to use her given name and the UK was a bit apoplectic because there was "The Elizabeth" - you know, the daughter of Henry VIII (the 8th for those unfamiliar with Latin). As for Charles, I hope he knows his country's history (I do and I am not even a Brit). He would be Charles II and Charles I was executed (beheaded, specifically). For confirmation...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Execution_of_Charles_I
I am at the start of a very busy day, so I will likely not be able to comment further until late tonight. However, perhaps it has been noticed that Elite filed the requisite 8K for Kirkov... but they did not do a PR.
To be balanced...I wish they did a PR for the "world" to read...it would have been on Seeking Alpha among other sites. However, I wonder if this is part of the continued low profile effort. Now, the operant question is why? I have some thoughts, but I am willing to let the board weigh in on it...
Thank you for answering, I just could not bring myself to it.
Elite's future is unfolding...it might be "puny" with $32M, but its future is aiming at $100M and that is "the plan".
Finally, something we can agree on...
I am not sure why you are not followed by everyone on this board, but I look forward to your posts and the clarity you bring on the science. The point you made on the NIH peer-reviewed grant is golden! Thank you.
This appointment was in process when we heard from Nasrat on the last Q call. As I have said, I have been paying attention to his "business speak" and knew Elite had a plan. All the "sky is falling" is ridiculous. Being able to say "hello" and "good-bye" in a foreign language is not the same as speaking fluently. I speak fluent business, and I even type in complete sentences, with correct punctuation. In case anyone is paying attention.
Care to elaborate?
For the discerning Elite investor, I actually think the answer lies in Hanlon's Razor...a little less Gillette and more Harry's...
Just because I was in front of an MBA strategy class today, I feel the need to ask this board the same question I would ask the MBA students if this were an NWBO case analysis...
Given the context (point in time analysis that should be understood), who are the NWBO stakeholders the CEO could have spoken to? In what ways might it have been valuable to speak to them?
(Let's not always see the same hands!!!!)
Thanks for that information.
I did not say the company had nothing to say, they did and they have phrased much of it exactly as we see with a BP...
While I am always looking to be educated about NWBO and its management, my larger experience suggests it is best for a CEO with nothing of value to say to its stakeholders...to remain firmly committed that position.
Stop creating confusion for Elite investors by using facts instead of ungrounded and subjective opinions...
(In case my "tung (tongue) in cheek" is not seen, my response is humor :)
Well said! For real Elite investors, business development increases the value of the company. Wait, what about the p/s? Unless you are selling shares, it does not matter. Investors WILL get their payday!
Naw, I saw it the whole time...we Elite investors have to maintain a sense of humor.
About this...
Again, we investors are supposed to feel threatened by some imagined reality that is "just the tip of the iceberg"?
Just to be clear, the Hindenburg blew up in New Jersey, just like all the imagined threats to Elite. Relatedly, since it can no longer be alleged the company would fail financially, investors now have the "real picture"...Nasrat only brought the company back from near BK to 4X revenues to profitability over the last three years to merely to enrich himself. Frankly, why would a person who clearly had enough money need to engage in a fraudulent scheme? That sounds like FUD not facts!
As for live CCs, again a misguided understanding of reality. Elite's CEO decided to hold "big company" conference calls until he realized the audience was not as informed as real analysts normally present on calls. I would have stopped long ago, but he still offers a call to provide clarity and answer questions...not to mention insights...but these are clearly missed.
The Hindenburg like research should be about the stock price that is clearly and corruptly manipulated. As for proof, to paraphrase Sherlock Holmes in the "Hounds of the Baskervilles" - It is not the sound of the dog barking in the night, it is its absence.
Regarding any consideration of M&A, it is not so simple.
I may be a bit tardy, but I just came across this response to a statement that Dr. Liau was NOT an advocate paid by NWBO. However, this statement says unequivocally that....