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It wouldn't surprise me if some shareholders sold off enough stock to recoup their original cost basis. AUPH is up over 300% for many shareholders, so taking enough profit to cover the cost basis still leaves a boatload of shares with which to reap even more profits over the next couple of years.
EQ: A Phase 1 test was launched two months ago with the primary indication being for asthma.
Well....we're seeing almost 5 million shares trading in the first half hour. The stock is up over a buck in spite of the announcement of the offering. What does that tell us? 1. Analysts had figured in the potential of a large offering when they were determining their initial price targets. 2. Interested institutions also have figured out that, whether the patents run out in '27 or '37, replicating the test formulas and timelines would be rather difficult. 3. Today's trading is all about the big boys and....oh yeah......that BP acronym again.
Thanks a bunch. Having just joined Acronyms Anonymous, I needed a little guidance. One would think that BP would have to include Roche... at least two years behind and developing an inferior product.
To whom are you all referring when you mention "BP"? Thanks.
Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target from $24 to $30
Cool.....I believe you to be 100% right. This one/two punch should be huge, and we are in the very beginning stages of success. I wasn't around for the Ariad rollercoaster, so I wasn't dragged through the swamp like so many of its shareholders, who post on this board, before it found success. Aurinia and its people have been straight forward and have done a great job. This process has been one of the most successful events I have witnessed in the 30+ years I have followed the biotech industry.
The upside volume is huge, among the best days ever. One should expect more serious backing and filling, above the $8.00 mark, going forward. We must be getting close to real news, or the public is reacting positively to the one/two punch of LN and DES.
The put/call ratio is suggesting a hedge against large stock positions. It's cheap insurance and a smart move.
Your dry eye commentary did not reach everyone here. I went back on-line and looked up the Oct. 31 article on the dry eye situation. The "Audrey" dosage Phase 2/3 scenario, if successful, could put this stock well into double digits.
An early 5% sell-off is now a mere 1% sell-off. Good resiliency.
The backing and filling has been almost non-existent the last two days. I would imagine there is a ton of short covering taking place.
Roche is a huge company with a lot of tentacles out there.
1. Aurora continuation
2. Insider buying
3. Management expansion
4. Sales and Accounting Expansion
5. Huge upside volume
Not the characteristics of a company scrambling because the endpoints weren't reached.
Can someone in-the-know comment on the malaria indication?
I would have been happy to see the stock hold $6.80 on the close. A $7.10 close means the backing and filling was mild, and more traders/nay-sayers/shorters etc. are now out of their positions. A few more days of this kind of commerce will do major damage to the remaining hedgehogs.
Has everyone thrown in the towel on the malaria indication? The planet loses 400k people per year due to malaria, and 90% of the deaths come from children under the age of 5 in Africa.
I think it's interesting that CCXI had an interesting "side effect" on improved kidney function. There is such a great need for a 21st century lupus nephritis treatment. I always have believed, that if AUPH was going to be able to fire on all cylinders, analysts were way too conservative with their price objectives. This morning's heavy volume and busting the $7.00 barrier is really a sight to behold.
It's tough to relax when we know that results are just around the corner. We need to remember that a bunch of people bought the stock below $4.00 and may be taking profits because they don't know/don't care about the story. It's just a momentum play for them. We were down 33 cents twenty minutes ago, and now we're back at $6.06. Expect this volatility to continue as we get closer to real results.
Today is a good day given the down market. The backing and filling, so far, has been slight. The volume is lower than yesterday but is still a respectable 1.7 million shares. Expect a test at 6.00 a time or two.
I attended a GTHP annual meeting back in 2014. Financing was just around the corner back in those days. I would venture to say that, with the Merck vaccine for cervical cancer becoming more prevalent as time goes by, the need of LuViva will continue to erode in the developed world. The Merck product is why LuViva approval in the U.S. is irrelevant. Everyone is banking on China. Look at the issues affecting U.S./China commerce today. The first big orders for LuViva came from Turkey. I don't think we can count on Turkey to provide a life raft these days either.
The CEO needs to provide a conference call to let people know that things are happening...…..if things really are happening.
Today may be the best trading day yet since the end of the decline a tad below 4.00. 2 1/2 million shares have traded, and the "backing and filling" hasn't been too severe....which means to me that selling may be drying up and more short covering may be taking place. What a buy it turned out to be at 3.90.
Jesspro…...I am asking out of my own lack of knowledge.....is there an additional possible indication for VOC based on adverse side-effects on the kidney from taking certain chemotherapeutics?
Okay......the Bloomburton update reminds us that VOC efficacy is real and outperforms another potential competitor, a huge global healthcare company. So now we have two competitors for two different indications where VOC is the superior product. We could surmise that Allergan and Roche are now potential suitors, yet I don't see how Allergan could afford the acquisition at this time.
Since you're a fan of Nightmare on Elm Street, B.R., you might be interested in knowing what Freddie Krueger's own worst nightmare is?
Jock Itch
We're on the same page.
This trek is about a revolutionary new treatment for LN where several companies already have failed. It's about tolerance and efficacy and a broad patient populations. It's not about hedge funds. Rarely does a year go by where a hedge fund hasn't blown itself up simply because it wasn't as smart as it wanted the rest of us to believe it was. Forget the hedge funds and the short term traders. They mean nothing.
Publicly traded Big Pharma would be quietly taking major stakes in Aurinia is there was an intent to acquire. That's not happening......yet. Given a positive P3 result, however, we should expect to see a flurry of activity from a half a dozen companies.
I have been scratching my head a bit pondering if VOC could be tested in a non-Lupus space for people with other kidney issues given its positive effects on dialysis. Your thoughts?
Thanks for keeping an eye on things, Eli.
The term "firming up" can have several definitions. No one knows if this brokerage firm's shorting power has been fully utilized.....or not. The rebound from below 4 to above 5 is significant. One should expect a little hesitancy related to the unknown given the circumstances around the quick decline.
The article went against the grain of the Phase II accomplishments. Where did SA actually come across a batch of illegal inside information? Precisely. Made up.
Companies Phase III tests have failed in the past. Big names have gotten clobbered trying to bring a lupus produce to market. I think there remains a bit of paranoia because of the development history in that industry. I also believe that VOC is going to get approved and that the marketplace, eventually, will go nuts over it. All of these analyst stock price predictions could be extremely low.
The fact that Aurora II is in existence should quell fears of dying patients related to VOC. I think we can chalk up what happened last week to Jeffries-related trading incidents rather than VOC safety/efficacy issues.
Look at the spreads from time to time. There is plenty of room for the MMs to make a ton of money. It's not about anything else but short term trading profits.
It's just market makers hyping the position and not telling the truth.
Biotechs in general didn't have a shorted windfall to fight.
So far, the lack of any type of announcements from the company points us into the direction of strategic trading. While the shorting and subsequent buy-in might not have been illegal, it certainly caused a lot of angst among shareholders and in the biotech world. Twenty-some years ago, our favorite international socialist shorted thinly traded Indonesian currencies and created what was known as the "Asia Crisis". His actions forced several countries to raise interest rates to regain their currencies' status, and thus a lot of economic growth was choked off. Illegal? No Unethical: You betcha. The people of those countries suffered.
Why don't you read Jesspro's report from his last post and then come back and start bad mouthing Glickman again....if you have the kahunas.
What was the stock price before the P2 test results were announced? $%1.50?