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Read the last PR about the DSMB + reccomendation....
It says the trial "now" has over 1,950 enrolled...that news came out Nov 1st:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resverlogix-announces-fifth-positive-recommendation-120000832.html
Are referring to the Futility Analysis...
In the most recent MD&A it said that it would be released after 50 to 75% of the 250 total MAC events is achieve, so between 125 and 187.5
#apabetalone
Never heard of it? That is going to change.
#apabetalone
If you don't know what this is yet, chances are you will.
I'm ready for anything next week.....
This PP with Hepa....it strikes me that, at worst, its a push, that's my opinion. In other words things are no worse than they were before it was announnced.
Prior to the placement we had a 68.8 million dollar loan hanging over our heads with the prospect that a default could result in Eastern walking off with pretty much the whole store.
Now that sword of damacles has been removed (assuming the PP is approved of course) but it came at a significant cost. So a significant issue was relieved at a significant cost....hence why I consider it a push.
But naturally my opinion isn't worth much...my point of view combined with a bus ticket, it will get you a ride on the bus. Did the market overreact? Whether the market overeacted, undereactected or got it just right...it is what it is....the stock moved down sharply, losing 20 cents or over 11%.
So what's coming next week? As the first line says....I'm ready for anything.
Looking back to the June overnight financing arranged by B&B....the stock nosedived then too. It went from over $2 and fell sharply for a couple days...settling around $1.45...but then it continued falling at a slower pace, going under $1.30 by June 23rd.
That drop was aided by short selling which jumped by over 600K in the wake of that financing deal. Obviously shorting 600+K shares and dumping them back into the market with RVX being so thinly traded....it was going to have a big negative impact on the PPS.
Friday's volume hit almost 180K, which isn't a lot when you think about it....but for RVX its massive when compared to recent norms. Was some of that increased trading the result of short selling? We should have a pretty good indication come Wednesday when the short interest is updated up to and including this past Friday.
But by then its possible the short position could grow even more....last time the PPS cratered down as low as $1.25 I picked some shares up at $1.35....and I'm going to be ready again because I do think history could repeat. Although lately I've been accumulating warrants instead of shares.
There's certainly ample reason for the triumverate of FUD to come into play...Fear that TSX approval won't be forthcoming, uncertainty about the outcome of a remedial delisting review, doubt about BETonMACE actually succeeding.
On the other hand....with over 175K already short as of the last update to Sept 30th...maybe those behind the short number, perhaps they'll decide that's enough risk right there and look to cover.
As I say...I'm ready for anything, RVX has gone from being very dull to very interesting.
I picked up another 1K warrants....
My take is that if BETonMACE succeeds that the MC will at a minimum go to $2.5 billion USD.....that would mean in and around $3 billion in CDN funds.
Crazy, out to lunch...pie in the sky? Could be....only way we'll find out is if BETonMACE does in fact succeed.
A while back on agoracome (ledenfrog then switched to growacet) I opined that I didn't care if they issued another 100 million shares, I just wanted that loan out of the way with the IP as colateral...I wanted it gone with enough money left over to fund research.
This placement meets half that goal...money to retire the loan, but precious little left over after paying about $15 million CDN in expenses. I'm guessing they're good til the end of the year....but at least the IP is now protected, assuming this deal is approved...and I am assuming it will be.
Okay...so now we're looking at about 175 million shares issued and outstanding, and without bothering to look it up I'll just spitball another 25 million to account for warrants and possible future dilution....
If the Market Cap were to get to $3 billion CDN we'd be looking at a share price of around $15 assuming 200 million shares fully diluted....
Again...its all just spitballing at this point, and unitl/unless BETonMACE succeeds its up for debate. Frankly I wouldn't be upset if Resverlogix was bought out right now for $1 billion CDN....a bird in the hand etc.
That puts his average cost at 70 odd cents...
The joys of getting 100K shares for $0.00.....big spender, get 100K for free then pay for a piddly 15K.
$1.78 last check, there goes the 200 DMA
If we keep moving past this area....then the next logical resistance point is that $2.00 area we were at before the overnight financing.
And the boards are almost dead silent....
My opinion that stock message boards are infested with mostly industry hacks and perhaps even company insiders is growing stronger and stronger by the day.
If RVX does continue to make substantial gains and eventually ends up being worth $5, $10....maybe even $20, that's my dream price....if it gets up there I'm going to look back at all the simple communications mistakes Resverlogix made and seriously consider them to have been more than simple mistakes, but as intentional gaffes designed to increase investor FUD in hopes that retail shareholders would bail at prices far below what they're really worth.
We're getting up around the 200 DMA, which should be a techincal resistance point....however given the amount of manipulation I believe is going on here I'm basically going to ignore it.
Blog posting on Thursday's crazy trading....
http://www.avoidthebag.com/2017/09/vuzix-what-hell-happened-on-thursday.html
Blog post about Biopharm America Attendance
http://www.avoidthebag.com/2017/09/resverlogix-to-attend-biopharm-america.html
Why? Because Daikin bought 2 glasses?
There's always news out about big companies, DHL, SAP and now Daikin is running a test with a couple pairs of glasses. But has there ever been a long term commitment from any purchaser to buy a significant sized order?
Its a lot like Nortel years back...
Investors fell in love with the tech and the applications that Nortel was developing....it was very exciting. But finance doesn't exist in a VR or AR bubble....eventually a company has to make money, if the only thing sustaining operations are the printing and selling of shares, then eventually the house of cards collapses. VUZI, like Nortel before...they've been very successful in attracting investors and getting them to hand over $$$ for shares.
I know that Nortel bears were trashed for having a lack of vision, for not seeing the future....but the bears won in the end because of simple dollars and cents. Hopefully things work out better for longs here....the way the company is performing on bottom line results for 20+ years, it doesn't look good....but maybe I just lack vision about the future.
You asked...here's what I'd do
I'd seek out venture capital, being public is a pain and very expensive...but attracting VC isn't an easy go of course. Venture Capitalists aren't ordinary shareholders, they're not gonna let the CEO of some money losing company they've invested in earn a salary in the hundreds of thousands while the company burns through their cash...
Then of course there's all those damn Sabournes Oxley regulations that came out after the dotcom bubble burst with big companies like Nortel, Enron, Worldcom and a host of others...companies that used to advertise on CNN and CNBC with great spots that got investors all excited. Turned out they weren't keeping a close enough eye on their internal accounting controls...
That's a worry here too from Vuzix's SEC filings, a lack of controls....but they've declared it so they're safe imo.
Anyway...if VC was a washout, then go the penny stock route like they've done, its cheaper than an IPO on an exchange like the NAZ...then dilute the crap outta the stock, do a big Reverse Split and then uplist, even though you're still not making any money....
And then its simply a question of selling the sizzle....as the dotcom era proved, you don't need to make money...you just need a good story, some flashy looking commercials, and PT Barnum about a sucker being born every minute is right...Then pay yourself say a cool half mill every year and travel the world on the company dime....
That's a very fair question....
While I take my Christian faith very seriously that's not the reason...maybe a smidgen, but not much. VUZI isn't the first stock that's attracted my attention, there have been tons of others over the years. Way back it was a now defunct company called Adzone Research....a complete and total pump and dump that got hyped up from a dime to over $2 bucks...and I was asked the same questions back then. Why so much time and energy?
The best I can explain it is by comparing it to nerdlinger forums where people argue over who the best starship captain was in Star Trek..Kirk, Picard or Janeway. Passionate arguments are made like crazy over an inconsequential issue where there's $0 at stake. Why? Its called "ego engagement"....a desire to be proven or seen as right. At least with a stock like VUZI, if they keep over promising and underdelivering by posting loss after loss after loss...there's something of a score card.
For some though...bottom line results mean nothing, all they care about is pumping up the PPS by attempting to drive interest to a stock. And VUZI is perfect for this because they've always got something cooking in the future...in years past it was DARPA and SAP, now DHL and the wounded warrior program.
Meh....
And realize that a lot of investors are conspiracy buffs, they see a guy like me going OCD because he enjoys the sword play and debate, and they figure there must be nefarious forces at work trying to pry their precious shares free....that's not the case, but if it was nobody would ever admit it so it feeds on itself.
Back in September I did take out a position on the short side, but that has long since closed....If I was a manipulative type I probably should join in with all the bullish pumping in hopes of getting the PPS even more inflated than it already is for another play on the short side...
I might take out another bearish position, but I won't play that game...I'll continue expressing my honest opinions.
Nah...I'm not worried about that
I use different user names on different sites but I like that pic....I noticed you posted the CEOlive fake interview....with all the money VUZI keeps losing you'd think they'd deploy precious capital to build the biz instead of spending it on stock promoters....but then I don't think they'll ever make a go at profits and guys like Paul need money coming in somehow I guess....the company might be a financial mess but they pay well.
Book value not even a buck...
I notice nobody ever posts the actual filings on any of the boards:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1463972/000114420417041938/v472877_424b5.htm
It has to be resolved...one way or t'other
Shareholders are obviously hoping for a positive resolution...but right now we're stuck in frustrating limbo.
Thanks...much appreciated
The last time the circuit breaker triggered was just prior to the phase III trial cancelation, with one notable difference. Before that news hit the stock was moving higher as the circuit breaker hit...this time it moved lower on Friday as shorts borrowed all they can....
Do you have a link to that info?
On the short sale circuit breaker....TIA if you can provide\
Predictions of doom have been overdone..
Going back to the end of 2016 when the PPS was down to 30 cents or so....which split adjusted works out to $2.10....then the PPS was around 60 cents when the 1:7 RS took place, which is $4.20 split adjusted...
There have been posters predicting down down down for months now....but it ain't happening.
The drop to around $4.50 after hours on Friday was just the latest example...and back we go over $5 today.
Sometimes it pays to simply ignore the noise.
New Blog Post Up at ATB
Resverlogix - Plenty of smoke but is there fire?
With spec stocks its a crap shoot.....
I view stocks like VUZI to be kind of like musical chairs....with the chairs representing $CASH$. When the music is playing and everyone is excited the PPS tends to climb, then the music stops and some people are left standing with their shares, while those sitting are holding cold hard cash.
If you want PMCB to lose...
Then vote for whichever company is closest to or ahead of them in votes....
Not hard to figure out why.......
Look at VUZI's history....they don't have any contractual commitments from their customers, everything is should/expects/anticipate and the like. Take away all the paid interviews and other promotional efforts and what do you have? A company that's been around 20 years that has never achieved any bottom line success.
With that being said I'm not part of that 27%, my position was closed back in January....but I still keep an eye. If you find that curious, here's my explanation:
http://www.avoidthebag.com/2017/03/vuzix-has-this-company-become-religion.html
Don't forget to vote again today...
1 vote per day per email address, so you can vote more than once...our main competition seems to be coming from a 9 cent penny stock with almost 900 million shares outstanding, so I'm guessing they have a lot more shareholders voting than we do.
http://convention.bio.org/buzzofbio/voting.aspx
And again...its one vote per day PER EMAIL address, so if you have more than one email account (doesn't everyone) than you can vote with all of them each day.
Up for "Pipelines of Promise" Award...based on votes
If you're long here, and even if you're not and just excited about the prospect of a breakthrough in treatment for Diabetes patients, then take a minute or 2 and vote.
http://convention.bio.org/buzzofbio/voting.aspx
On the right hand side, under Pipelines of Promise....one vote per day per email address....stuff the ballot box.
Maybe around $3....
There's no value here LT, they don't even have any firm commitments for orders so they just use the ambiguous and meaningless "shipping" news.
AvoidTheBag Blog Post: Link
http://www.avoidthebag.com/2017/03/vuzix-has-this-company-become-religion.html
I can see you're well versed noretreat....
And it is very likely that you are right, that the longer we're waiting on the futility analysis the better chance we have of a positive outcome.
I was merely making the point that even if the FA was done a week from now for example....because 125 MACE had occurred, that so long as the vast majority are in the non-dosed placebo arm, then it should be all systems go if there are no safety or other concerns.
I know the BETonMACE trial is enrolling individuals who have a high risk of a Major Adverse Cardiac Event....and I also know they're targeting Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) not risk elimination. So it would be unrealistic to even hope that the dosed group would have 0 MAC events. But obviously that would be an incredible result, if nobody in the dosed group had a MAC event....
It kind of sucks in a way though....those who are dosed with the placebo...the best result for a positive outcome of the trial is if those in the control arm suffer the MAC events. I don't wish a heart attack or stroke on anyone obviously.
There are two arms to the BETonMACE trial....
So long as the majority of MAC events are happening in the placebo group then its a positive.....the futility analysis takes place after 125 MAC events, (half of the 250 total for a completed trial) and the best case scenario in my view would be 0 in the Apabetalone arm and 125 for those taking placebo.
Obviously that's probably incredibly unrealistic as an expectation....but it goes without saying that the fewer events in the dosed arm the better.
Haven't been watching this forum much....
The most active forum for RVX that I've found is agora....
With BETonMACE being an events based trial I don't really think it matters when the futility analysis is triggered....whether its mid or late 2017 or early 2018. The only thing that matters imo is that the half way results show that Apabetalone leads to a statistically significant Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) of Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE).
Rather than focus on PPS I think its better to consider the potential Market Capitalization, which right now sits around $210 million CDN or $165 million USD. With a positive futility analysis I don't think a $1 billion USD MC is unreasonable, and a completed and successful trial....maybe $5 billion.
If Apabetalone is successful is achieving a significant RRR in patients with Diabetes Mellitus (fancy way of saying full blown insulin dependent diabetes) then I think that bodes well for other indications like Chronic Kidney Disease, Thrombosis and other orphan indications and possibly even Alzeheimers as that disease is said to be impacted by high cholesterol levels.
FDA approval of the BETonMACE trial would also be a big plus, right now its approved by the European regulatory body, but not the FDA. The company is reportedly working on FDA approval, that too could give a bump.
There are a lot of potential catalysts here that could send the PPS significantly higher imo....but of course the key word there is potential, nothing is a sure thing.
EMC.V short players double down on their bets, blog post:
http://www.avoidthebag.com/2017/01/emblem-corp-short-players-double-down.html
Took my profits....
50% gains in 3 months are okay by me, if it keeps climbing I'll cry into the money I made, good luck longs...I hope those who end up with the shares I sold make $$$.
New Blog posting at Avoid The Bag........
http://www.avoidthebag.com/2017/01/emblem-corp-over-or-undervalued-emcv.html
It definitely looks like we're heading back to .06 at least.....
Gotta be a kick in the junk for all those that were bearish under .04 cents...
What is the address for RMH China?
Please post a link, TIA
Sentiment....sediment is on the bottom of a river
Expecting at least consolidation, if not a pull back if the PPS climbs into the .06 to .07 cent area.