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Signed Citibank as a customer. Should open at $100
Here it comes.....
CRM - Not much volume in A.H.'s Everyone is waiting for the CC to start. This guy is good at managing the stock, I remember one CC when they missed or guided lower, I forget exactly, but the CEO finishes the call by announcing another press conference in three days where they were going to make a really big announcement. Can't wait to see what's up his sleeve this time. LOL.
Hoenig is killing the market...
14:56 Hoenig says global growth, demand for U.S. goods has helped mitigate impact of housing decline on economy
14:55 Fed's Hoening says impact of housing on economy wider than merely 6% share of GDP; says not seen decline in U.S. housing prices now being seen since early 1990s
14:52 Fed's Hoenig says US in realignment of supply and demand in housing - Reuters
14:51 Fed's Hoenig says U.S. economic outlook uncertain - DJ
15:07 Fed's Hoenig says overall sees "a good outlook" - Bloomberg
15:06 Hoenig says dollar's decline could add to inflationary pressures
15:06 Fed's Hoenig says aware housing market could worsen further
15:04 Hoenig says expects current quarter GDP to be somewhat slower that 2%; says mortgage resets could bring down real economy; says credit conditions could worsen
15:02 Hoenig says over next year expect GDP to grow around 2%
Sold UVE @ $8.40 for +.69 eom.
This paragraph says future growth coming...
Mr. Meier concluded, "We remain focused on growing the Company, as UPCIC is in
the process of preparing Certificate of Authority applications to write
homeowners' insurance policies in five additional states including Texas,
Hawaii, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Additionally, UPCIC is in
the process of preparing an application to become a National Flood Insurance
Program (NFIP) servicing agent."
I think it was done to avoid a system wide panic, if they had to write those things down to what they could actually sell them for we would have seen shear terror in the market. IMHO.
FASB 157 Delayed One Year...
On November 15th, FASB 157 was expected to go into effect. CNBC has just reported that the implementation will be delayed one year. There had been some discussion of this buit all signs were pointing towards the immediate use of this rule, so its delay comes as a surprise and is positive for banks... FASB 157 Color- FASB 157 establishes disclosure requirements that reveal to financial statement users how the fair value estimates were produced. The main contribution of Statement no. 157 is to put more pressure on companies and banks to value their assets based on stringent forecasts and estimates of fair value. A fair value measurement reflects current market participant assumptions about the future inflows associated with an asset (future economic benefits) and the future outflows associated with a liability (future sacrifices of economic benefits). Those differences are the source of most income (or loss) for companies. The central component of Statement no. 157 is its description of the "Fair Value Hierarchy", under which there are three levels. Level 1 is the preferred method as valuation efforts are quoted prices in active markets for identical assets or liabilities, with the caveat that the reporting entity must have access to that market (Mark to market); Level 2 involves less-active markets for identical assets and liabilities. This category is ranked lower because the market consensus about value may not be strong. Level 2 is used when there are not any quoted prices available but there are observable inputs. This is known as Mark to model; Level 3 describes inputs as "unobservable," and limits their use by saying they "shall be used to measure fair value to the extent that observable inputs are not available." This category allows "for situations in which there is little, if any, market activity for the asset or liability at the measurement date". It is at this level where questions have been raised with regards to banks keeping sub prime loans and activities buried in their financials. An area which is being sarcastically referred to as 'mark to make believe'. The general belief out in the markets is that the majority of troubled loans have been hidden in Level 3 areas on financial sheets and once this accounting rule is established it will cause banks to address the true value of some of these assets and very likely uncover more corrosion within the credit markets. According to a recent Royal Bank of Scotland report Morgan Stanley has 251% of its equity levels placed in Level 3 assets; Goldman 185%, Lehman 159%, Citigroup 105%, Merrill Lynch 38%. It is this size of exposure that has the markets worried. Royal Bank of Scotland estimates that these banks could account for $100 bln in write downs alone, and the credit crisis could see $250-500 bln in total write downs when all is said and done.
This is a Saturday Night Live skit waiting to be written...
Rejoice, the world is safe, the Iranians have turned in the blueprints for building atomic weapons. Without the plans they no longer have the ability to build nuclear warheads...
In other news China has returned their one copy of Microsoft's Office and said they will no longer need it.
Iran Gives IAEA Plans To Mold Uranium Into Warheads -EnvoysLast update: 11/13/2007 1:17:01
PMVIENNA (AP)--After years of stonewalling, Iran has given the U.N. nuclear agency blueprints showing how to mold uranium metal into the shape of warheads, diplomats said Tuesday, in an apparent concession meant to head off the threat of new U.N. sanctions. But the diplomats said Tehran has failed to meet other requests made by the International Atomic Energy Agency in its attempts to end nearly two decades of nuclear secrecy on the part of the Islamic Republic. (END) Dow Jones NewswiresNovember 13, 2007 13:17 ET (18:17 GMT)
Iran Fails To Meet Other IAEA Requests On Nuclear Work-EnvoysLast update: 11/13/2007 1:14:48 PM
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones NewswiresNovember 13, 2007 13:14 ET (18:14 GMT)
Iran Gives IAEA Plans To Mold Uranium Into Warheads -EnvoysLast update: 11/13/2007 1:13:48 PM
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones NewswiresNovember 13, 2007 13:13 ET (18:13 GMT)
Fitch Cuts Indymac's S-T IDR; Off Watch, Outlook Negative
>Last update: 11/13/2007 1:07:35 PM
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones NewswiresNovember 13, 2007 13:07 ET (18:07 GMT)
Tennessee Town With Water Turned Off Enters Race to Beat Drought
Last update: 11/13/2007 1:00:00
PMAUSTIN, Texas, Nov 13, 2007 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- The Mayor of Orme, TN, Tony Reames set out to resolve a major crisis when the town ran out of water. In a drastic measure he cut off the water supply to three hours per day. The severe Southeast drought has this tiny community of 145 residents locked in a thirsty grip.
In a campaign to save water and install water control features in every home, Mayor Reames and the City Council agreed to team up with H2O Guard, an Austin, Texas company which has developed a new toilet valve along with a flapper that stop leaks. The valve measures the exact amount of water needed to fill the toilet tank. Once the tank is full the valve shuts off any additonal water. "A leak is quickly detected and stopped," said Robert Easter founder and CEO H20Guard, Inc. H2O Guard, Inc. has agreed to conduct a "Save the Water Race" Nov 17-18. "Our goal is to conserve as much water as possible by attacking every water wasting problem we can find, especially the ones people forget about. H2O Guard offered real solutions and immediate help.
Our town is ready to conserve water now and in the future. Everyone has to work together and do their part," said Mayor Tony Reames "The citizens of Orme are to be applauded. In a period of crisis, they looked for and found solutions. Their can-do attitude is refreshing. By installing the latest water saving devices every home will join this effort. We are proud to be the partner to help them achieve their goal. We will bring in other national suppliers to help," said Easter. "A recent study of an inn in Buda, Texas saved 45 gallons of water per day, per toilet using the H20Guard Fill-O-Meter (TM) fill valve and Shield (TM) flapper. In eight months the inn realized an annual savings of $94 for each of the 42 rooms based on 70 % occupancy. Many communities can do the same," Easter said. For more information please visit: or toll free 800-215-5961. The Guard's Fill-O-Meter(TM) is patented and carries the Universal Plumbing Code (UPC) certification. SOURCE H2O Guard, Inc.
Copyright (C) 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved
Just got back from seeing Bruce Springsteen. The man can still belt it out. Good concert!
Sorry, I made the foolish mistake of taking an analyst's word for something.
Who in their right mind would buy it? lol.
Just like all those other sub prime mortgage companies who were going to sell to protect shareholder value.
ETFC could become a self fulfilling prophesy in this market.
I think this was the key part of that story...
"The continued negative news flow about charges resulting from its mortgage and CDO exposure, and SEC inquiry, and continued deterioration in its financial conditions, all increase the likelihood of significant client attrition," Bhatia said. Also, according to Bhatia, there is a high risk that the company will lose its high-end clients, who have accounts with more than $100,000 (the investment limit that is insured by the government's Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation). These accounts represent $15 billion, and make up 50% of deposits or roughly 25% of E*Trade's funding.
The mass exodus of clients, could force the company to sell-offs assets. The liquidation could total $5 billion in losses, "more than wiping out tangible equity," Bhatia said. He predicted a 15% chance of bankruptcy.
I was wondering about that earlier. I know that the accounts are insured and you would eventually get your money back, but as a trader would want to risk having your capital possibly tied up for months if something did happen?
Never mind, the fair value number CNN was using is from 4:29 AM Friday morning...
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html
Asia is getting whacked though. They are surprised because they thought S. Korea might bounce this morning since the government loosened currency hedging rules and raised the cap on foriegn investment over the weekend.
Asia getting whacked again on the open, hopefully things improve while we sleep. Futures look very ugly. Remember, this time things really are different, this is the first crisis since the depression that you don't need an uptick to get short.
Looking like quite the roller coaster ride tomorrow.
Wow! Naz futures show a gap down open of over 70 points! S & P down 22 points.
But as always a lot can change while we sleep.
Asia is melting down again tonight, with the banks and the bond market closed it could be a low volume day, could be very volatile, might really get it this time.
Although BA had some good news over the weekend, maye we'll wake up to another merger Monday and this was all a bad dream.
That's what happens when you try to live by Rule #10.
I thought that was a pretty big leap. They are probably worried about getting sued and when in doubt chop it down.
ETFC - How low can it go...bad news...
E-Trade backs off earnings forecast
Broker stops giving profit guidance as value of securities portfolio drops more
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last Update: 5:13 PM ET Nov 9, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - E-Trade Financial shares slumped as much as 13% in late trading Friday after the company backed off an earnings forecast made less than a month ago after the value of its asset-backed securities portfolio dropped further.
E-Trade shares slumped to $7.41 during after-hours trading on Friday, also hit by news that the broker had received an informal inquiry from the Securities and Exchange Commission regarding its loan and security portfolios.
E-Trade said the fair value of its $3 billion asset-backed securities portfolio has continued to decline since the end of the third quarter. Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and other securities backed by second-lien mortgages saw the biggest hits, the broker explained.
E-Trade had roughly $450 million in total exposure to asset-backed CDOs and second-lien securities on Sept. 30. That includes about $50 million of AAA rated asset-backed CDOs that have been downgraded to junk status.
The drop in value will result in further write-downs in the fourth quarter, the company added. Those extra write-downs weren't expected when E-Trade updated its 2007 earnings outlook on Oct. 17.
"Investors should no longer expect these earnings levels to be achieved," the broker said in a statement.
"Actual securities-related losses will depend on future market developments, including the potential for future downgrades by rating agencies, which are extremely difficult to predict," the company added. "Accordingly, management believes it is no longer beneficial to provide earnings expectations for the remainder of the year."
Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
Even when the market was at it highs European investors were at about break even for the year due to the devaluation of the dollar. Now in addition to the dollar not performing, their investments inside the dollar are not performing, with no bottom in sight on the dollar and who knows how many billions in write offs still to come this could get very very ugly.
UVE swimming against the current today. Should come out with earnings soon.
Solar stocks might get hit sooner than I thought if this passes...
SEIA reports energy bill may not include solar tax credits- Cowen
Cowen says in an action alert to members, the Solar Energy Industry Association reports that Democrat Leadership is now considering passage of an energy bill without a tax title. This would eliminate the extension of solar investment tax credits for commercial systems and expansion of the credit for residential. The firm says this is a psychological blow to the group, but little near term impact on P.V demand. THe PV demand continues to exceed supply near-term, driven by Feed-In-Tariff subsidies in Europe.
ZINC - Recent IPO - bad timing - They put up some great numbers last night, if the markets weren't getting killed this thing would be flying IMO. Nice balance sheet.
Long a little @ $22.60...
Horsehead Holding Corp. Announces Third Quarter Earnings
Thursday November 8, 5:31 pm ET
MONACA, Pa., Nov. 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Horsehead Holding Corp. (Nasdaq: ZINC - News), the parent company of Horsehead Corporation, reported net income of $24.2 million for the third quarter 2007, or $0.73 per diluted share on sales of $134.0 million. Highlights for the third quarter compared to the prior year quarter were:
-- Net Income increased 47%
-- Strengthened balance sheet with debt reduced to $0.2 million and cash
at $77.4 million
-- Strong productivity gains as production of zinc increased 19.5%
For the nine months ended September 30, 2007, net income was $73.4 million, or $2.40 per diluted share, on sales of $426.4 million. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006, net income was $38.3 million, or $1.42 per diluted share, on sales of $346.7 million.
"We are pleased with our continued strong performance," said Jim Hensler, President and Chief Executive Officer. Operational and productivity improvements at our Monaca smelter increased zinc production to approximately 150,000 tons on a per annum rate during the third quarter. Our electric arc furnace ("EAF") dust recycling plants continued to operate at full capacity. The processing of EAF dust increased 1.8% versus the prior year quarter."
Hensler further commented, "Market demand for our products was very good during the quarter, although receipt of EAF dust was below expectation despite adding three new sources late in the quarter. This level of EAF dust receipts reflects the reduction in steel production by our customers. We expect steel production to strengthen over the next two quarters."
Third Quarter Financial Highlights
Net income increased $7.7 million to $24.2 million for the three months ended September 30, 2007, compared to $16.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2006. The major factors contributing to this growth in earnings for the quarter were:
-- Net sales increased $3.2 million, or 2.5%, to $134.0 million,
reflecting primarily, the realization of higher premiums for finished
products combined with improved product mix of shipments.
-- Cost of sales decreased $4.9 million, or 5.1%, to $90.7 million,
reflecting primarily the effect of reduced purchase of metal for
resale.
-- Interest expense, net of interest and other income, decreased $1.4
million, reflecting significant reduction in debt and increased
interest income.
Other Financial Data
Cash generated by operations was $86.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2007 compared to $11.5 million for the prior year nine months. Net proceeds from the issuance of stock were $97.8 million during this period while total debt was reduced $79.8 million to $0.2 million as of September 30, 2007. Cash on hand was $77.4 million as of September 30, 2007 compared to $1.0 million at December 31, 2006.
On-going Activities
According to Mr. Hensler, "our capacity expansion projects continue to be on schedule. In particular, the Rockwood, Tennessee waelz kiln is expected to be on-line by the beginning of next year adding 80,000 tons of electric arc furnace dust processing capacity. This will enable us to bring more low-cost feed into our smelter."
"Demand for our products and services continues to be strong. In the near term, we are focused on the negotiation of our Monaca, PA labor contract, which expires on November 17, 2007 and we are continuing to emphasize further productivity gains at our smelter in Monaca."
"As far as other projects, we have also initiated a search for sites for new dust processing facilities in the Southeast and Midwest and we broke ground on our zinc oxide expansion project at Monaca during the third quarter. We expect to have 10,000 additional tons of zinc oxide capacity on-line during the second quarter of 2008. We have also begun several projects aimed at reducing our feed costs."
Conference Call Information
Horsehead will conduct a conference call with investors and analysts on Friday November 9, 2007, at 11:00 am EDT to discuss the quarter and nine month results. Dial-in instructions are as follows:
Dial-In Number(s):
United States: (888) 639-6205
International: (703) 925-2608
A replay of the call will be available beginning at 2:30 pm EDT on Friday November 9, 2007 and ending on Friday November 16, 2007 at 11:59 pm EDT. Dial in instructions for the replay are:
Dial-In Number(s):
United States: (800) 475-6701
International: (320) 365-3844
Access Code: 891657
About Horsehead
Horsehead Holding Corp. is the parent company of Horsehead Corporation, a leading U.S. producer of specialty zinc and zinc-based products. Horsehead, headquartered in Monaca, Pa., employs over 1000 people and has six operating locations throughout the U.S. Visit http://www.horsehead.net for more information.
Cautions about Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements, including statements about business outlook and strategy, and statements about historical results that may suggest trends for our business. These statements are based on estimates and information available to us at the time of this press release and are not guarantees of future performance. There may be other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Our actual results, performance or achievements could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the forward- looking statements. We can give no assurances that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will occur or, if any of them does, what impact they will have on our results of operations and financial condition. You should carefully read the factors described in the "Risk Factors" section of our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a description of certain risks that could, among other things, cause our actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements. All forward- looking statements are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and we undertake no obligation to revise or update this earnings release to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof.
Summary Financial Results ($ thousands except per share amounts):
Income Statement (unaudited)
Quarter ended Sept 30, Nine Months ended Sept 30,
2007 2006 2007 2006
Sales $133,987 $130,759 $426,419 346,730
Cost of sales 90,739 95,638 287,798 260,474
Gross profit 43,248 35,121 138,621 86,256
Depreciation 2,288 1,810 7,232 5,975
S G & A expenses 3,797 4,852 11,851 12,502
Income from operations 37,163 28,459 119,538 67,779
Interest expense (1,538) (2,138) (7,155) (6,568)
Interest and other
income 979 196 1,753 285
Income before taxes 36,604 26,517 114,136 61,496
Income tax provision 12,418 10,040 40,690 23,238
Net Income $24,186 $16,477 $73,446 $38,258
Earnings per diluted
share $0.73 $0.61 $2.40 $1.42
EBITDA (1) $39,451 $30,269 $126,770 $73,754
Balance Sheet Items (unaudited)
Sept 30, December 31,
2007 2006
Cash $77,436 $958
Other current assets 132,723 136,636
Property, plant and equipment, net 84,249 63,794
Other assets 2,151 4,318
Total assets $296,559 $205,706
Current liabilities $55,467 $78,731
Long-term debt 136 58,225
Other long-term liabilities 18,644 18,756
Stockholders' equity 222,312 49,994
Total liabilities and stockholders'
equity $296,559 $205,706
(1) EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. Management uses EBITDA to
help them evaluate Horsehead's performance and to compare
Horsehead's current results with those for prior periods as well as
with the results of other companies in our industry. We caution
investors that EBITDA should not be considered as a substitute for
disclosures made in accordance with GAAP. Below is a reconciliation
of EBITDA to net income:
Quarter ended Nine Months ended
Sept 30th, Sept 30th,
2007 2006 2007 2006
Net Income $24,186 $16,477 $73,446 $38,258
Income tax provision 12,418 10,040 40,690 23,238
Interest expense 1,538 2,138 7,155 6,568
Interest and other
income (979) (196) (1,753) (285)
Depreciation 2,288 1,810 7,232 5,975
EBITDA $39,451 $30,269 $126,770 $73,754
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Horsehead Holding Corp.
I had a discussion with someone earlier today and used that same example. I said it would have to be multiple random attacks. One single attack and people would get over it too quickly.
My wife called me the day after the first shooting spree and said she was scared to go shopping. She wanted to go to the Spotsylvania Mall. I told her she was being ridiculous, that just because some nutcase shot some people up in Rockville MD there was no reason to be afraid to go down to Spotsylvania. She was in the Michael's store when the woman got shot in the parking lot. I didn't hear the end of that one for a looooooooong time.
I knew someone in Fredericksburg VA who had an outdoor cafe and unfortunately he had only been in business 3 months when the shootings started. He went under. In all fairness he was under capitalized to start out with but that stretch finished him off.
I was an outside sales rep at the time, worked all around the suburbs of D.C. I drove a little Ford pickup and I usually had to fill up at least once a day, sometimes twice a day, 2 of the stations I used on a regular basis had people shot. Everytime I filled up I kept telling myself it was like getting hit by lightning, odds were against it, still wasn't a very pleasant time.
More reasons for on-line stores to due better...
ABC News story out earlier today highlights an FBI report on an al Qaeda threat on U.S. shopping malls
Although it isn't directly driving today's trading, there was an ABC News story out earlier today regarding an FBI report on an al Qaeda threat on U.S. shopping malls. We wanted to provide information on the story, as it may start making more headlines over the next few days... ABC News reports that the FBI is warning that al Qaeda may be preparing a series of holiday attacks on U.S. shopping malls in Los Angeles and Chicago, according to an intelligence report distributed to law enforcement authorities across the country this morning. The alert said al Qaeda "hoped to disrupt the U.S. economy and has been planning the attack for the past two years." Law enforcement officials tell ABCNews.com that the FBI received the information in late September and declassified it yesterday for wide distribution. The alert, like similar FBI and Department of Homeland Security terror alerts issued over the past five years at holiday times, raised questions about the credibility of the information. The bulletin acknowledges that U.S. intelligence officers are uncertain as to whether the information is real, and intelligence officers say there is a concern that it could be "disinformation." We have no credible, specific information suggesting an imminent attack," a DHS official said.
Nice! eom.
AAPL, looks technical, they made a new low on the day and then fell off a cliff, probably triggered a lot of stop loss orders.
Also on the larger chart a break of $180 support was not good.
I completely agree...
Posted by: Painterguy1
In reply to: Painterguy1 who wrote msg# 148347 Date:11/7/2007 4:41:16 PM
Post #of 148408
FSLR - Why fight it. Long @ $188.25 eom.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24364300
Instead of trying to stand in the way of the crazy lunatics I joined them for a brief jog.
Options Snob! eom.
Hey, I told you FSLR was going to $200, I'd say it's a wash.
That might lower the price of oil since they would be buying less and gasoline prices might rise because of short supply.
ROTFLMAO!! Ameritrade showed the market gapping down over 300 points on the open. I sprinted to turn on the TV to see we're really up 24.
My wife and I started shopping about a month ago buying a little at a time so we wouldn't get whacked all at once; then about a week ago I saw a segment on CNBC where one analyst predicted Christmas would be disappointing because consumers were shopping early in order to budget better this year. I called a friend and told him how I thought it was funny because we were doing just what the analyst said, there was dead silence on the phone, then he finally said this guy might be right, my wife and I are doing the same thing.
It might be informative to take a pole of your friends and see if things might really be shifting.
Out the rest @ $53.65 eom.