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MarketWatch http://y.ahoo.it/h5QNbOEv
Early Is Good
PEIX,Front Month Ethanol Futures Turning Up
http://t.co/EaUEHsKoAr
Ethanol Margins as High as the Highest in Q4 2013
http://www.allendale-inc.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/ethanol%20margin.jpg …
Ethanol Margins Still Above Q4,Front Month Futures Higher
Ethanol Margins as High as the Highest in Q4 2013
http://www.allendale-inc.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/ethanol%20margin.jpg …
Front Month Ethanol Futures Turning Up
http://t.co/EaUEHsKoAr
Q2 Is Looking Sweet
May Ethanol Futures Turning Up Vs May Corn Futures
http://t.co/EaUEHsKoAr
Ethanol Margins Higher than the Highest Hi of Q4,2013
http://www.allendale-inc.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/ethanol%20margin.jpg …
Includes: AER,CALL,EQU,IMOS,PEIX,SHERF
by Lane Sigurd
http://t.co/DvpS3UGk3F
Four weeks ago I wrote:
I think an important pillar of my strategy is to take advantage of the concentration that I can have. I don't have anyone pressuring me to be diversified or questioning my risk level or anyone to answer to if something goes wrong. So I don't hesitate to have a large percentage of my portfolio tied to the names I think will perform the best.
With that said, the names that I am currently of the heaviest weight are, of course, Pacific Ethanol (PEIX), which remains my largest position by far.
Barron's Article 'Greentech'
http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB116069615833491324?mod=googlebarrons …
Corn Chart Head and Sholders Signals Lower Corn Prices
https://t.co/msr3Famq15
Pacific Ethanol to Bring California Fuel Ethanol Plant Back On-Line
http://www.industrialinfo.com/news/abstract.jsp?newsitemID=241706 …
PEIX Buy Opp.
Pre-Market Volume: Pre-Market High: Pre-Market Low:
12,908 $ 14.45
(08:18:04 AM) $ 14
(08:25:29 AM)
Trade Detail
Click to find out more!Most Active in the Pre-Market
Pre-Market Time (ET) Pre-Market Price Pre-Market Share Volume
09:13 $ 14.15 8
09:07 $ 14.15 800
09:07 $ 14.15 300
09:07 $ 14.15 800
09:07 $ 14.15 300
09:04 $ 14.15 100
09:03 $ 14.10 500
08:46 $ 14.10 500
08:44 $ 14.10 500
08:39 $ 14.10 600
08:39 $ 14.10 1,000
08:37 $ 14.10 400
08:26 $ 14.20 100
08:26 $ 14.20 300
08:26 $ 14.20 300
08:26 $ 14.20 300
08:26 $ 14.20 500
08:26 $ 14.20 500
08:26 $ 14.20 500
08:26 $ 14.20 500
08:25 $ 14 Low 2,900
08:25 $ 14.01 100
08:22 $ 14.30 900
08:19 $ 14.31 100
08:18 $ 14.45 High 100
I think the Street will be Impressed,but Who am I to say.
the Street has Voted against me Before
It is an EPS Target Upgrade,So I Do see some Action Coming
New Analyst estimate http://t.co/FvsoekOYTy
PEIX,New Analyst estimates
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=PEIX+Analyst+Estimates …
PEIX,Unloading 100 railcars of Corn Pics
Courtesy of Cipe94
http://www.screencast.com/users/cipe94/folders/4-19-14%20Madera%20Pictures
Cipe
PEIX,Madera May Start Up Early this Week.
a Reliable Source that Lives an hour away from
the Madera Plant was There today.
They Were Unloading the Corn Train While He Was There.
Cipe is a Reliable Source
I Have email Contact with him and He has emailed
me Pictures of Activity at the Plant in the Past
and I Have Posted the Pictures On IHUB PEIX
Message Board.
Cipe Told Us they Have been Working Week Ends at
the Plant to Expidite Opening the last few Week Ends.
May 1st Opening may have been a Conservative Guess
by the Company.
The Company Did Say this Which Proves what Cipe is Saying is TRUE
~ “We’re currently in the process of making sure everything is fit and ready to go,” Koehler said.
Source: Capital Press | April 14, 2014 | By John O’Connell
For Those Interested ,
It May be Worth a Bounce Trade
An SEC S-3 form $150M Offering Filing was Out Friday
After the Bell,There was an explanation Today
( from the S3 Registration statement )
PEIX filing Approximate date of proposed sale to the public: From time to time after this Registration Statement becomes effective.
There may be an Unjust Investor Scare that might come Monday Morning
for an Opp to get In.
At the Latest for the Madera Opening Announcement - May 1st
Monday is the 22nd of April.
a 9 day Turn Around On your Investment.
Might be a Good Deal,So I Thought I Would Mention it
for a Trade for Non Investors.
AMTX may Move in Sympathy
No Certainty , but a Good percentage Calculated Risk
*
Cipe Says the Corn Train Arived @ Madera,He Was There Today.
Dutch,It may Draw red Flags But ~
PEIX filing Approximate date of proposed sale to the public:
From time to time after this Registration Statement becomes effective.
Registration statement under Securities Act of 1933 http://y.ahoo.it/BSY5SMZH
The last S3 was 100% exhausted.
So we get a new one
They actually used the remainder of the previous shelf with the last offering.
It is completely exhausted as of last week.
Check the SEC filings.
The last offering actually used the remainder plus an additional $4M.
There was an amendment filed showing the specifics.
So No Offering Date,just If they Want to Or feel it
Necessary they Can do an Offering.
PEIX filing Approximate date of proposed sale to the public:
From time to time after this Registration Statement becomes effective.
Registration statement under Securities Act of 1933 http://y.ahoo.it/BSY5SMZH
The last S3 was 100% exhausted.
So we get a new one
They actually used the remainder of the previous shelf with the last offering.
It is completely exhausted as of last week.
Check the SEC filings.
The last offering actually used the remainder plus an additional $4M.
There was an amendment filed showing the specifics.
PEIX,I See the railcar Issue Playing Out
Ethanol Concerns Due to Surge of Oil Shipped by Rail
and Rail Traffic -
The peak freight seasons are triggered by ~
1.) The exponential growth in crude oil shipments by rail (Tank car shortage and ensuing Rail Traffic)
2.) Summer Fuel Demand
3.) Summer Coal Demand from Coal Fired Power Plants - (Air Conditioning Surge)
4.) Rail Volume do to the strengthening of the economy
5.) Bountifulfall grain harvest
6.) Shipment of retail merchandise for Christmas
7.) Transportation of new vehicles to dealers for the start of the new model-year
8.) Weather
The unknown is whether the railroads can adriotly adjust the allocation of their rail assets, primarily locomotives and crews, to accommodate this increase in freight volume without impacting.
They Were Not Able to On the Frozen Rail Surge and are Still 7 Weeks Behind.
Oil industry forecast is for rail shipments of crude oil to continue to increase each year as the U.S. accelerates toward achieving energy independence, projected to occur post-2020.
Ethanol Movement to the West Coast will be a Problem as
the problem is centered around BNSF,the North Rail Line
to the West.Which Goes Right Thrue North Dakota,The
CENTER of the Bakken Oil Shale Where the MAIN Problem
is Located.
http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2014/03/27/rail-bottleneck-grain-ethanol-shippers/6946393/ …
Brazil has Limited Ethanol Due to the Drought.
Percentage of Feedstocks can Avoid Rail Delay
( 30% Sorghum will Ease Corn Shipping Delays )
1.) Southern Sorghum Rail Route from Texas is Uncongested, a Bushel of Sorghum is $1 Cheaper
than a Bushel of Corn right Now.
2.) 15% Raw USDA Sugar Pre Bought and With In 10 Miles of the Idaho Plant Also Eases Corn Need
and Potential Corn Shipping Delays.
3.) 5% to 10% of Corn Is Locally Sourced
That Leaves 45 to 50% Corn Subject to Delays .
This Should Not be a Problem as between Rail Surge Traffic Clogging.
They Can Fill their Massive Storage Bins with Corn Enough to Get thrue Rail Delays
- As a Result PEIX Will be Able to Run at Maximum Capacity Unaffected by Delays
and Will be Able to Capitalize On High Pricing during Ethanol Shortage in the West from Rail Clogs.
- Tanker Car Shortage will not affect PEIX , as Tanker Cars Will get Stuck in the West from Traffic.
The Majority of PEIX's Local West Coast Movement is by Tanker TRUCKS.
The Rail Industry Will be struggling for years with rail-related delays.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-11-14/2014-outlook-warren-buffett-cashes-in-on-railroad-tank-cars …
For these reasons I see Pacific Ethanol benefiting from Ongoing Surges in rail delays.
Remember the rails are 7 Weeks behind Now because of the Weather Clog and Tanker Car Shortage.
7 Weeks is abought how long Brazil's Current Ethanol Crush will Last. ( Sugar does not Store like corn, It Rots )
Leaving a 2 Month Ethanol Crush Season or Less because of
the Drought.Drought to hit Brazilian cane yields in H2
https://www.agra-net.com/portal2/pl/home.jsp?template=newsarticle&artid=20018097298&pubid=ag047 …
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/agriculture/london/brazil-will-have-tough-time-competing-with-us-21215596 …
Brazil Exports to the US will Dry Up Soon , Leaving Ethanol Ripe for a Summer PRICE SPIKE.I See this Volotility and Up Swings
Continueing at Least On the Coasts.
.http://www.aviatelive.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/53.png … http://www.aviatelive.com/trader-watch-us-macro-abengoa-thyssenkrupp-charts/ …
~ Then in June,You Also have the EPA Most Likely Increasing
the Reduced Ethanol Mandate by 1 Billion gallons according
to Articles I've Read. http://t.co/GyfNcdCowX
Then You Have the US. Bio Fuel Trade Mission
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/free/news/template1&product=/ag/news/bestofdtnpf&vendorReference=0353b2fa-34a2-481b-912d-1cb46058ad3a__1393418596916&paneContentId=88&paneParentId=0 …
Ethanol Producers Looking for a Port to Export From, Which
Pacific Ethanol has 2Deep Water Port Facilities.
Ethanol Exporters Search for Port Access
agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/ethol-expters-seek-pt_9-ar41427 …
(Stockton and Boardman)
http://www.pacificethanol.net/our-company/biorefineries-and-locations/stockton-california … http://www.pacificethanol.net/our-company/biorefineries-and-locations/columbia-boardman-oregon …
Bakken Oil Companies Competing for West Coast Port Locations
http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2014/03/oil_train_terminal_near_clatsk.html …
Bakken Oil and Nat. Gas Export Hub and Refinery,
Ex West Coast Bio Refinery with Many similarities
to Pacific Ethanol's Port Facilities.
http://www.opb.org/news/article/1-billion-methanol-export-facility-planned-for-port-westward/ …
Clogged Panama Canal Makes the Gulf Not Good for
Export,as Well as Hi Cost Shipping.
... http://grab-media.com/premium-videos/5236416 …
Madera restart May 1,"We are approaching 100-percent ownership,”
http://www.thebusinessjournal.com/news/energy-and-environment/11142-madera-ethanol-plant-restart-target-may-1 …
USDA $4 Corn for a Decade Helps
http://www.agweb.com/farmjournal/article/power_hour_usda_projects_sub-4_corn_for_a_decade_NAA_Ed_Clark/ …
This is My Case Why PEIX is Still Good Right Here.
PEIX,I See the railcar Issue Playing Out
Ethanol Concerns Due to Surge of Oil Shipped by Rail
and Rail Traffic -
The peak freight seasons are triggered by ~
1.) The exponential growth in crude oil shipments by rail (Tank car shortage and ensuing Rail Traffic)
2.) Summer Fuel Demand
3.) Summer Coal Demand from Coal Fired Power Plants - (Air Conditioning Surge)
4.) Rail Volume do to the strengthening of the economy
5.) Bountifulfall grain harvest
6.) Shipment of retail merchandise for Christmas
7.) Transportation of new vehicles to dealers for the start of the new model-year
8.) Weather
The unknown is whether the railroads can adriotly adjust the allocation of their rail assets, primarily locomotives and crews, to accommodate this increase in freight volume without impacting.
They Were Not Able to On the Frozen Rail Surge and are Still 7 Weeks Behind.
Oil industry forecast is for rail shipments of crude oil to continue to increase each year as the U.S. accelerates toward achieving energy independence, projected to occur post-2020.
Ethanol Movement to the West Coast will be a Problem as
the problem is centered around BNSF,the North Rail Line
to the West.Which Goes Right Thrue North Dakota,The
CENTER of the Bakken Oil Shale Where the MAIN Problem
is Located.
http://www.argusleader.com/story/news/2014/03/27/rail-bottleneck-grain-ethanol-shippers/6946393/ …
Brazil has Limited Ethanol Due to the Drought.
Percentage of Feedstocks can Avoid Rail Delay
( 30% Sorghum will Ease Corn Shipping Delays )
1.) Southern Sorghum Rail Route from Texas is Uncongested, a Bushel of Sorghum is $1 Cheaper
than a Bushel of Corn right Now.
2.) 15% Raw USDA Sugar Pre Bought and With In 10 Miles of the Idaho Plant Also Eases Corn Need
and Potential Corn Shipping Delays.
3.) 5% to 10% of Corn Is Locally Sourced
That Leaves 45 to 50% Corn Subject to Delays .
This Should Not be a Problem as between Rail Surge Traffic Clogging.
They Can Fill their Massive Storage Bins with Corn Enough to Get thrue Rail Delays
- As a Result PEIX Will be Able to Run at Maximum Capacity Unaffected by Delays
and Will be Able to Capitalize On High Pricing during Ethanol Shortage in the West from Rail Clogs.
- Tanker Car Shortage will not affect PEIX , as Tanker Cars Will get Stuck in the West from Traffic.
The Majority of PEIX's Local West Coast Movement is by Tanker TRUCKS.
The Rail Industry Will be struggling for years with rail-related delays.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-11-14/2014-outlook-warren-buffett-cashes-in-on-railroad-tank-cars …
For these reasons I see Pacific Ethanol benefiting from Ongoing Surges in rail delays.
Remember the rails are 7 Weeks behind Now because of the Weather Clog and Tanker Car Shortage.
7 Weeks is abought how long Brazil's Current Ethanol Crush will Last. ( Sugar does not Store like corn, It Rots )
Leaving a 2 Month Ethanol Crush Season or Less because of
the Drought.Drought to hit Brazilian cane yields in H2
https://www.agra-net.com/portal2/pl/home.jsp?template=newsarticle&artid=20018097298&pubid=ag047 …
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/agriculture/london/brazil-will-have-tough-time-competing-with-us-21215596 …
Brazil Exports to the US will Dry Up Soon , Leaving Ethanol Ripe for a Summer PRICE SPIKE.I See this Volotility and Up Swings
Continueing at Least On the Coasts.
.http://www.aviatelive.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/53.png … http://www.aviatelive.com/trader-watch-us-macro-abengoa-thyssenkrupp-charts/ …
~ Then in June,You Also have the EPA Most Likely Increasing
the Reduced Ethanol Mandate by 1 Billion gallons according
to Articles I've Read.
Then You Have the US. Bio Fuel Trade Mission
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/free/news/template1&product=/ag/news/bestofdtnpf&vendorReference=0353b2fa-34a2-481b-912d-1cb46058ad3a__1393418596916&paneContentId=88&paneParentId=0 …
Ethanol Producers Looking for a Port to Export From, Which
Pacific Ethanol has 2Deep Water Port Facilities.
Ethanol Exporters Search for Port Access
agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/ethol-expters-seek-pt_9-ar41427 …
(Stockton and Boardman)
http://www.pacificethanol.net/our-company/biorefineries-and-locations/stockton-california … http://www.pacificethanol.net/our-company/biorefineries-and-locations/columbia-boardman-oregon …
Bakken Oil Companies Competing for West Coast Port Locations
http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2014/03/oil_train_terminal_near_clatsk.html …
Bakken Oil and Nat. Gas Export Hub and Refinery,
Ex West Coast Bio Refinery with Many similarities
to Pacific Ethanol's Port Facilities.
http://www.opb.org/news/article/1-billion-methanol-export-facility-planned-for-port-westward/ …
Clogged Panama Canal Makes the Gulf Not Good for
Export,as Well as Hi Cost Shipping.
... http://grab-media.com/premium-videos/5236416 …
Madera restart May 1,"We are approaching 100-percent ownership,”
http://www.thebusinessjournal.com/news/energy-and-environment/11142-madera-ethanol-plant-restart-target-may-1 …
USDA $4 Corn for a Decade Helps
http://www.agweb.com/farmjournal/article/power_hour_usda_projects_sub-4_corn_for_a_decade_NAA_Ed_Clark/ …
This is My Case Why PEIX is Still Good Right Here.
The Way I See the Rail Problem for~Pixie
Ethanol Concerns Due to Surge of Oil Shipped by Rail
and Rail Traffic.
he peak freight seasons are triggered by ~
1.) The exponential growth in crude oil shipments by rail (Tank car shortage and ensuing Rail Traffic)
2.) Summer Fuel Demand
3.) Summer Coal Demand from Coal Fired Power Plants - (Air Conditioning Surge)
4.) Rail Volume do to the strengthening of the economy
5.) Bountifulfall grain harvest
6.) Shipment of retail merchandise for Christmas
7.) Transportation of new vehicles to dealers for the start of the new model-year
8.) Weather
The unknown is whether the railroads can adriotly adjust the allocation of their rail assets, primarily locomotives and crews, to accommodate this increase in freight volume without impacting.
They Were Not Able to On the Frozen Rail Surge and are Still 7 Weeks Behind.
Oil industry forecast is for rail shipments of crude oil to continue to increase each year as the U.S. accelerates toward achieving energy independence, projected to occur post-2020.
Ethanol Movement to the West Coast will be a Problem and Brazil has Limited Ethanol Due to
the Drought.
Percentage of Feedstocks can Avoid Rail Delay
( 30% Sorghum will Ease Corn Shipping Delays )
1.) Southern Sorghum Rail Route from Texas is Uncongested, a Bushel of Sorghum is $1 Cheaper
than a Bushel of Corn right Now.
2.) 15% Raw USDA Sugar Pre Bought and With In 10 Miles of the Idaho Plant Also Eases Corn Need
and Potential Corn Shipping Delays.
3.) 5% to 10% of Corn Is Locally Sourced
That Leaves 45 to 50% Corn Subject to Delays .
This Should Not be a Problem as between Rail Surge Traffic Clogging
They Can Fill their Massive Storage Bins with Corn Enough to Get thrue Rail Delays
- As a Result PEIX Will be Able to Run at Maximum Capacity Unaffected by Delays
and Will be Able to Capitalize On High Pricing during Ethanol Shortage in the West
from Rail Clogs.
- Tanker Car Shortage will not affect PEIX , as Tanker Cars Will get Stuck in the West from Traffic.
The Majority of PEIX's Local West Coast Movement is by Tanker TRUCKS.
The Rail Industry Will be struggling for years with rail-related delays.
For These Reasons I See PEIX Benefiting by Rail Delays.
.
No,I don't
Sorry Rule
chart by tarikawad: http://t.co/gfRReB1B54 low risk entry.
Annual stockholders Meeting Announcement
http://t.co/OZEqs39gst
That Would be Good if the EPA,Increased
Allendale Weekly Ethanol Update
http://t.co/3Tf7ijGvEt
Example of Volitility for Pixie
http://t.co/3Tf7ijGvEt
There are Variables,and Volatility
In January Margins were Lower than Q4 Early On
Cheap Corn and Cheap Valuation Makes it Worth Owning
I Would Definitely Hold Thrue Earnings and
Then Re Evaluate.
All the Bad is Priced In,the Good is Not.
there are Catalysts
EPA Will Up Gallons Required Soon
Rail Transportation In the Summer Will be Clogged
More Gallons with Madera
100% Ownership
etc...
Variables
Debt Payment Lower
Hedged Forward Ethanol Sales ?
I Think They Did to Lock In a Beat On Q2,but No Certainty
right now ethanol is Selling for 36 cents more per gallon right more than in Q4 2013.
EPS in Q4 Net was 54 cents per share
40MG per Quarter x 36 cents per Gallon
= $14,400,000.00 better than Q4 2013
As Long as Corn is Cheap and No Drought happens,Were Good.
If they Achieve a Reasonable P/E ratio, then I'm a Seller.
That Said,I Will be Taking Profit On Some After Earnings.
I may Move a lil More to AMTX , a gamble on a Buy Out.
Move the Rest to Another Play.
After Earning Huge Win, I Would Say Take Some Off.
A Bird in the Hand is Worth 2 in the Tree
Corn Crop Uncertainty is Something that Concerns Me
I had Shares when the Last Drought Hit and No One Saw it
Coming.
I Bought 10X the Shares at the bottom and Traded my Way
Out of the Hole, But That Sucked Holding it that Long.
So I Understand Your Concern.
Just My Opinion and My Plan,Ya gotta do What's Good for You.
Nice, Pacific Ethanol wipes out its corporate debt
http://www.mercedsunstar.com/2014/04/15/3602212/sacramentos-pacific-ethanol-wipes.html …
Pacific Ethanol Inc. said Tuesday it has eliminated all its corporate debt, another milestone in the once-troubled company’s comeback.
However, the Sacramento ethanol producer said its four operating plants are still a combined $48 million in debt.
“We’re in process of making sure everything is fit and ready to go”
http://www.capitalpress.com/California/20140414/operator-to-reopen-madera-ethanol-plant …
$PEIX 2 Analysts EPS Q1 = $0.89, 2014 EPS $2.50
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/earnings/earnings.asp?ticker=PEIX …
stock channel charts
http://t.co/FGJh6yhi9c
It's a Guess,With Good Reasons to Happen