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Ok fine i give up. Everyone should expect 113 to be approved this year despite the fact that the company plans on filing their NDA for 113 in 2016. This will be awesome because It either means that for the first time ever a drug will be approved before a company files for approval or the company intentionally lied about filing an NDA because they wanted to keep it a surprise.
Define soon? This year? Zero. The company itself had laid out the time frame for that. It's not this year
Exactly same situation different drugs. Things could come out the same or things could come out differently. It's certainly not a sure thing either way.
I know but we have heard this before. Not just from you but many. People have been holding on to this stock for up to a decade hoping for a 10 bagger and the price is at the same place it was in the early 2000s. At this point that argument holds no water for me. People can do what they want. I prefer to be out now with a tidy. The old saying..... Fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me.
Really you are expecting a 6x price increase in a short period of time? That's a 48 dollar price per share equating to a maket cap of over 10 billion? Sounds like a pipe dream. I for one will take a double or a triple right now.
Not really because there buying anymore stock would trigger the poison pill
That is not true. The CEO isn't elected sometimes the CEO isn't the chairman sometimes he is. Although if Berger isny re-elected you can be the will be fired at the CEO.
Few people if any would describe this proxy fight as a win win situation.
With all the excitement of the denner/berger ARIAD proxy fight I almost missed the fact that the board has a new banned member.
Well I also said it when it was happening so I've earned the right to say it again
It sure does. You see when there is a material change in the facts and circumstances of ones investment then there can be a material change in ones outlook for price per share. Many of the longs here have wanted to see harvey go and have believed that the stock price would increase if he does. As you see, just the speculation that it might happen has increased the stock price. Compare what happened to the stock price when the Pona partner deal was disclosed (nothing I think it actually went down) vs. what happened to the stock price when the proxy fight was announced. Its all in the numbers and what they are saying is, Harvey is not liked and most investors, I think all other than 1 on this board, would like a buy out.
I've got one that is at the top of my list for speculative breaches of fiduciary responsibility. How about adopting a partnership strategy where you seek out different partners in each geographic market for the desired purpose of decreasing the likelihood that a large pharma would ever want to acquire the company because the pieces of its one approved product was partnered with so many different companies it would not allow for a synergistic acquisition target. Great for Harvey, he keeps his baby, bad for shareholder value i.e. the speculated fiduciary breach.
Implied volatility on ARIAD's options has gone up quite a bit today. If Ariad's price keeps rising I might start selling some May covered calls for income generation purposes before the big event. The 10s are selling for .60 cents. Not a bad return for 3 months of waiting but I suspect the stock price continues to move up in anticipation of the vote and will hold out and sell calls with higher strike prices. About a year ago during the rumor speculation I was able to sell covered calls at the 13 and 14 and 15 dollar strike price with short term expirations (1 to 3 months) for close to a dollar per share when the actual stock price was sub $10. If the implied volatility keeps going up and so does the SP that situation might present itself again.
Love it. So there you have it. It's not just a few on this board that think Harvey has failed. Denner who has sat on the board for 1 year and knows the inner workings thinks the same.
Repost from JQ1234 on biotech value board. Its reasons like this that denner wants a new CEO. its not enough to have good scientist or a good molecule, in order to be successful a leader needs to make prudent business decision and harvey has violated that concept for nearly a decade.
I wouldn't be surprised if it was something like that prompting this move...... either A) there is real interest in a buyout and Harvey won't play ball or B) there are legitimate partnership interest from major players looking to be an active partner in developing 113 worldwide and Harvey wont play ball, i.e. wants to take the regional approach, which lessons the ability to sell the company later.
Denner says fine if you (Harvey) won't play ball and do what is right for the company, well then strap yourself in, its gonna be a wild ride.
In 4 years they are just getting into the black. Where do you get p/e of one
My guess is 14 but with a CVR (contingent value right) for pona based on future indications or salew volume and depending when the deal happens 113 could be scoped into the cvr as well.
I don't think he was really blaming the shorts. More like an observation that whatever funds that are short the stock now aren't likely the ones that were short the stock a year ago or at the time of the crash. He is probably right.
Pot/kettle black
If you want to invest more do so. This isn't going to the teens tomorrow. The share price won't hockey stick immediately and this still isn't a sure thing.
Be careful I wouldn't and one should never out all their eggs in one basket
Not a chance that Harvey doesn't fight this. But one can dream.
I can't wait to watch this unfold. I'd consider buying more stock, not as an investment, but so I can cast more votes to get Harvey OUT
Things are about to get INTERESTING!!!!!!
CNBC reports that activist Sarissa capital wants to replace ARIAD CEO Harvey Berge and also remove two other board members. A proxy battle could soon begin
THIS IS AWESOME!!!!!!
Good luck longs this is what all of us (except for one person) on this board have been waiting for.
Yea I have no problem with the titles. I have a problem with how heavy their management team is and how prematurely some of them were brought on. At some point you have to right size the company. Pick up talent is great but I think its a valid argument that they need to be judicious with their talent acquisition.
You are totally right but if you look at the bio's of of most of the people they have hired you'll know they are hiring some very heavy hitters. These aren't kids 5 years out of MBA school like at a bank. They are seasoned professionals.
True points. Believe it or not a publically traded company's purpose is to make money for its shareholders. This often takes time. But we are a quarter century with No profitability and the same leadership. It's non sensical. Say what you will about ariad prospects it doesn't matter 25 years of losses without a change at the helm makes no sense. For those if you who ask "why are you still here to the perma holders it's because they expecte profitability and it didn't come and now they want to see leadership chance. I for one have reduced my ariad holding as a percentage of my net worth significantly (if for no other reason than it took a nose dive but also I had always been lightening) but will always follow this company because I have for so long. I still hold stock but not like I used to. I will watch until Harvey goes. He is a terrible CEO.
There are in fact 21 VPs or higher. Now apparently 22.
I would hope that the people on this board don't blindly accept a position that "Ariad has no where to go but up". Its that type of blind faith that lose people their life savings. Nothing is a sure thing. One can complain all they want about wall street corruption, analysts being disingenuous etc. But if this thing looked like a sure thing it would be getting more love than it currently is. There are plenty of obstacles that need to be handled appropriately for this stock to soar.
400 million is revenue you need to then factor in all the costs of the drug, marketing the drugs, continued r&d, corporate overhead etc etc. More likely than not 400 million is where they just get into the black because if they thought they would be having earning prior to that they naturally would want to mention that fact. So I would expect minimal earnings per share at the 400 million revenue threshold. Now they can always turn up or turn down R&D to squeeze out more pennies but that's my thoughts.
This years annual meeting should be interesting.
Personally I'm not surprised by the reaction of the stock price to the recent news. Two reason..... #1 I think that plan outlined leads people to believe there is a smaller chance for a buyout and lets face it, a buyout would mean an immediate pop in the price. People don't like to wait and a buyout expectation was built into the stock. #2 While ARIAD's plan may lead to sustained net income the investing community no longer gives the benefit of the doubt to ARIAD so any price appreciation from various business developments will need validation. Talking about a molecule without discussing its target (no value) talk about a partnership of 113 without more details or time line (no value) Increases in stock price will be assigned only when enough information has been disseminated to allow investors to determine if they are good deals.
Ok great time will tell. Let's take a poll. Who thinks 113 is sold in 2015
This is how fast track works
http://www.fda.gov/ForPatients/Approvals/Fast/ucm405399.htm
They don't just hand out approvals without submissions. Do you really think the fda is gonna just hand out a surprise approval without the company even pursuing it? At this point we can just see what happens I don't care if others plan to bury their head in the sand.
No that's not how it works. You have to file an NDA
Seriously I'm done for the night the company themselves have indicated their submission estimate to be 2016. You can't be approved without a submission. They haven't even submitted an NDA. If they thought they were gonna do so in he coming months they wouldn't disclose their plan to so so mid 2016. To ignore the companies own disclosed plan for submission is nuts. Sure maybe it move to early 2016 but that's the submission not the probably
See post 58603. The information is pubically disclosed plan to file in mid 2016. May file earlier but I will repeat myself you can't get approval until you file and approval takes months. I'll mark your post. Mark mine Approval doesn't take place to 2016.